SPORTS ADVISORS
Cincinnati (26-23) at St. Louis (29-21)
After getting swept in Milwaukee over the weekend, the Reds now move to St. Louis and open a four-game series at Busch Stadium with Edinson Volquez (4-2, 4.25 ERA) returning from the disabled list and pitching opposite the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (5-4, 5.02).
Cincinnati arrived in Milwaukee on Friday riding a four-game winning streak, but lost all three games against the division-leading Brewers, capped off by Sunday’s 5-2 loss. The Reds have dropped six straight on the road and six straight against right-handed starters, but they’re 7-3 in their last 10 on Monday.
St. Louis wrapped up a six-game road trip with a 5-3 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. The Cards went 3-3 on the trip but now return home where they are 23-9 in their last 32 (22-7 as a home chalk). St. Louis is on further runs of 8-4 overall, 6-1 as a favorite, 7-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against N.L. Central rivals.
Volquez, who was on the DL with back spasms, is 3-0 with a 3.28 ERA in four road starts this season. He got a no-decision in his last outing on May 16 when he allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings in San Diego, with the Reds falling 6-5. Previous to that start, the right-hander faced the Cardinals on May 10 and allowed seven runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-7 loss after splitting two starts against them last season. With Volquez pitching, Cincinnati is on runs of 13-3 on the highway, 5-1 in series openers, 5-0 as a road ‘dog and 4-1 against the N.L. Central.
Wellemeyer is just 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA in six starts at Busch Stadium this season. However, his last home start was his best this season when he blanked the Royals on four hits over six innings en route to a 5-0 victory. Wellemeyer faced the Reds three times last season and gave up a combined 10 runs on 18 hits in 18 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA), and the Cardinals lost two of the three games. St. Louis is 5-1 in Wellemeyer’s last six home starts, but just 2-8 in his last 10 against teams with winning records and 3-8 in his last 11 against N.L. Central squads.
The Reds took two of three from St. Louis in Cincinnati in the first three-game set between these two this season, but the Cardinals have dominated this series at home, going 36-15 in the last 51 near the arch.
Cincinnati has topped the total in 16 of Volquez’s last 24 starts and 10 of his last 16 against N.L. Central rivals. Meanwhile, with Wellemeyer on the hill, the Cardinals have topped the total in five of his last seven at home, but they’ve stayed under the total in five of his last six overall and six of his last seven against teams with winning records.
The over is 8-3 in the Reds’ last 11 against N.L. Central teams, but the under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 roadies. St. Louis is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 9-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 6-0 in series openers, 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 4-1 on Mondays. Finally, the last seven Reds-Cards clashes have topped the total and the over is 4-1 in the last five battles at Busch Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (28-20) at San Diego (25-25)
The Phillies kick off a 10-game road trip by sending Joe Blanton (3-3, 6.14 ERA) to the mound at Petco Park in San Diego opposite the Padres’ Kevin Correia (1-3, 5.11).
Philadelphia swept a weekend series against the Nationals, concluding with Sunday’s 4-2 victory. The Phils have won seven of their last 10 overall and three of their last four on the highway. Philadelphia is on further runs of 12-4 overall, 19-7 on the road, 7-1 on Monday, 49-22 in series openers and 13-6 against N.L. West teams.
San Diego salvaged one of three in Colorado over the weekend by beating the Rockies 5-2 on Sunday. The Padres have won 10 straight in front of the home fans, including a perfect 9-0 homestand they last time they were in San Diego. They are on further runs of 12-3 overall, 7-0 against teams with winning records, 7-2 against the N.L. East and 7-0 against right-handed starters.
Blanton had his best start of the season Tuesday when he blanked the Marlins for seven innings and led the Phillies to a 5-3 victory. Philadelphia has won five of his last six starts but in Blanton’s last two road efforts, he’s allowed a combined nine runs on 13 hits in 10 innings (8.10 ERA), but his offense has bailed him out both times, winning 10-6 in Washington and 12-5 in Cincinnati.
Blanton has only seen the Padres once in his career, giving up five run (four earned) in four innings of an 8-1 loss as a starter for Oakland in 2006. Philadelphia is 13-3 in Blanton’s last 16 trips to the mound overall, 6-1 in his last seven on the road, 4-0 in his last four on Monday and 6-0 in his last six series openers.
Correia got hit hard in his last start, allowing six runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-5 loss in Arizona. However, in his last home outing the right-hander held the Giants to one run on six hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 victory, lowering his ERA at Petco Park to 4.88 in five starts, four of which the Padres have won. Correia hasn’t started against the Phillies since 2003 as a member of the Giants when he held them to one run on seven hits in six innings of a 5-2 victory.
San Diego took two of three from the Phillies in Philadelphia earlier this season, but the Phils are 5-1 in their last six visits to Petco Park.
Philadelphia has topped the total in seven of nine as a road favorite, nine of 13 against the N.L. West and 10 of 16 versus right-handed starters, but the team also carries “under” trends of 8-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 as a favorite. San Diego is on over streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 4-1-1 against N.L. East teams, but the under has been the play for the Padres in six of their last seven at home and six of their last eight series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
DUNKEL
Cincinnati at St. Louis
The Reds open the series looking to build on their 8-0 record in Edinson Volquez' last 8 road starts against a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110).
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.128; Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.417
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.657; Florida (Miller) 16.990
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-120); Under
Game 905-906: Colorado at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 13.659; Houston (Oswalt) 15.030
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-135); Under
Game 907-908: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.695; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.045
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+110); Under
Game 909-910: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.198; San Diego (Correia) 16.537
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Over
Game 911-912: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 14.626; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.309
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Under
Game 913-914: NY Yankees at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.446; Cleveland (Sowers) 17.138
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+145); Under
Game 915-916: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 14.641; White Sox (Colon) 15.783
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under
Game 917-918: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 14.760; Seattle (Washburn) 16.414
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Under
Marc Lawrence
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Play On: Cleveland w/Sowers vs. Chamberlain Note: Jeremy Sowers and the Tribe wraps up a four-game series with the Yankees tonight when they take on Joba Chamberlain at Progressive Park in Cleveland. While Chamberlain is 3-1 in his last four team starts he has averaged less than 5 innings per start in those games. With Sowers fighting to maintain a starting spot in the Indians' rotation and 2-0 at home in his career team starts against the Pinstripes, look for the Tribe to improve to 14-5 at home on Mondays here tonight.
Play on: Cleveland
Frank Jordan
Cincinnati Reds vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati got swept over the weekend in Milwaukee as they lost some close games. Cincinnati will look to get back to winning with Volquez on the mound who is 4-2 with an era of 4.25, but has struggled in his last two starts. St. Louis is playing good ball at home with 17 wins in 26 games and come home off a 4-2 road trip. Look for Volquez and Cincinnati to snap their funk as Pujols and St. Louis are quiet in their first game back home. Play Cincinnati
Cajun Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Petco Park will be the site of a three-game series between the host San Diego Padres and the visiting Philadelphia Phillies with the first game set for Monday night at 10:05PM EST. The Phillies open a ten-game road trip in San Diego and the NL East leading Phillies also have the best road record in the majors posting a record of 16-6 W/L this season. Petco Park has been a favorite of the Phillies with a record of 12-4 W/L since it opened back in 2004, they have won fourteen of their last eighteen in San Diego overall. The Padres will send Kevin Correia to the bump with his 1-3 W/L record and ERA of 5.11 on the season. Correia was roughed up in his last outing which was a loss at Arizona 6 to 5 giving up six runs and nine hits. He is 1-1 W/L with an ERA of 4.60 in one start and seven relief appearances versus the Phillies. Philadelphia will counter with Joe Blanton who is coming off his second straight win and in his last outing he struck out a career high eleven in seven scoreless innings of work in a 5 to 3 win versus the Marlins. The Phillies are 4-0 W/L their last four as a road favorite of -150 or less, 21-8 W/L as a road favorite, 37-18 W/L versus teams with a winning record at home, 13-3 W/L their last 16 Blanton’s starts and 6-0 W/L if he starts game one of a series. The Padres are 2-5 W/L in Correia’s last seven starts as an underdog. Lay the short price as the Phillies capture game one of this series on Monday night in San Diego.
Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 5 San Diego Padres 3
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: New York Yankees
Records
New York Yankees 29-21, 15-12 away (Chamberlain 2-1, 3.97 ERA)
Cleveland Indians 22-30, 12-13 home (Sowers 1-2, 7.71 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Yankees are 5-2 in Chamberlains last 7 starts as a favorite.
-Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
-Indians are 1-4 in Sowers' last 5 starts.
The NYY lost yesterday but that still has them scoring a ton of runs as of late. Last 10 games NYY are averaging over 7 runs a game. Also good news for the NYY they have Chamberlin going for them on the mound today. Even though Chamberlin struggled last game out they have been winning almost all the starts of Chamberlin. Lucky for Chamberlin the CLE Indians will be without Sizemore and Martinez both out with injuries. Sowers will pitch for CLE and he has been very poor as a starter losing his last 4 times. Today he will really struggle with the great NYY lineup. This one will not be close as NYY want to get out of CLE with a winning series. SCORE NYY 8 - CLE 3
Jimmy The Moose
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Under
The under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees last 9 games. In their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter the under is 6-2-2. The under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-1 in the Indians last 6 games following a win. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter the under is 11-3. The under is 7-1 in the Yankees last 8 trips to Cleveland. The under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. Play the under.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take some coin back with the Orioles.
Seattle definitely had a very solid series in Anaheim over the weekend and Jarrod Washburn is a decent enough lefthander but when push comes to shove to get some money back with the Orioles in this spot is enough to give it a go.
I like Rich Hill. No the last start was not great but the Southpaw has shown me enough in parts of his stints with the Cubs and now in Baltimore that the guy is alright. I'm not saying he is the next Cy Young by any means but Hill should be fine against a mediocre at the very best Mariner offense and with Matt Wieters now in the bigs this Orioles lineup is pretty solid. Throw in the future All-Star with guys like Roberts, Markakis, Mora and a red hot Luke Scott among others and Baltimore is the more potent squad with the sticks and all in all is the better and more well balanced overall club.
This is far from the Lock of my Life but on this small all baseball slate I'll back Hill and the O's plus a little bit.
Red Dog Sports
Baltimore at Seattle
Play: Over 9
The Orioles have played 47 overs, 21 unders and 3 pushes in their last 71 on the road. They have played 11 overs, 5 unders and one push in the last 17 in Seattle. The ERA of Hill is 6.14 in his last 3 starts and Washburn for Seattle has an ERA of 5.29 in his last 3. Look for an over to profit on Monday night in Seattle.
DAVE COKIN
NEW YORK METS / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take NEW YORK METS
The Mets haven't been very good on the road, but I like their chances of kicking off this trip with a win. Livan Hernandez is clearly exceeding expectations and he's in solid form of late. Ian Snell continues to have control issues and while he's not getting crushed, he hasn't been very good, either. With Hernandez running pretty warm right now, I'll back the Mets to grab the win tonight.
JIM FEIST
BALTIMORE ORIOLES / SEATTLE MARINERS
Take SEATTLE MARINERS
The O's have lost two straight games now after Sunday's setback to the Tigers, 3-0. While the O's are in last place in the AL East, they are still only 6 1/2 games back of the Yankees. Likewise, the Mariners are 6 1/2 games back of AL West leader, Texas. The M's have allowed the third least runs in the American League (230). Seattle has the best ERA in the AL (.391) and in fact is the only team with a ERA in the AL under 4.00. Conversely, the O's have the second worst ERA in the AL with a 5.33 mark. Jarrod Washburn starts today for Seattle and is 3-3 on the season with a 3.45 ERA. Rich Hill goes for the birds and is 1-0 in three starts with a 6.14 ERA. Pitching is the key to today's matchup. The Mariners have it, the Orioles don't.
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia at SAN DIEGO
Given you three straight FREE winners from the diamond including Sunday when we told you to play the Red Sox in Toronto. Today we'll make it four in a row when we play the Padres at home in San Diego against the Phillies.
Philadelphia shoves off on a 10-game road trip tonight in San Diego and we're going to play the home team in this one because the Padres are red-hot in Petco Park and they are getting some outstanding pitching.
The Padres are 10-0 in their last 10 home games and swept a nine-game homestand last time they were in front of the home fans. Tonight they've got Kevin Correia (1-3, 5.11 ERA) on the mound against the Phillies' Joe Blanton (3-3, 6.14).
Correia looked good in his last home outing, giving up one run on six hits in 6.1 innigns to the Giants, winning 3-2. San Diego is 4-1 in his last five home starts and he's starting to pitch pretty well. San Diego has won 12 of its last 15 overall and they are 7-2 in their last nine against N.L. East teams and 7-0 against right-handed starters.
Blanton hasn't looked very good on the road lately, allowing nine runs on 13 hits in 10 innings of work. In his lone start against San Diego, he allowed five runs in four innings of an 8-1 loss back in 2006.
The Padres took two of three over the Phils back in Philadelphia earlier this season and they'll take Game 1 of this series. Play the home team Padres in this one.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Michael Cannon
Oakland at CHICAGO WHITE SOX -135
I nail the Padres yesterday as a +135 dog and improve my free play run to 26-16-1 with my last 43 overall releases!
Let’s take the White Sox as the home chalk over the A’s tonight.
Chicago will start Bartolo Colon, and although I’m not a big fan he has pitched well recently. The right-hander is 3-4 on the year with a solid 3.80 ERA. Colon is 1-1 over his last three starts, but has posted a sparkling 1.32 ERA over that span.
The A’s will counter with Trevor Cahill, who is 2-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the year. The right-hander has dropped his last three starts and has a 6.32 ERA over that span.
Colon has had pretty good success against Oakland in his career, going 6-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 14 games.
Take the White Sox as they grab the home win.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee +110 at FLORIDA
National League action Monday night, and we will go with the Milwaukee over Florida.
The Brewers are off to a 3-0 season series start against the Marlins, and Milwaukee is also 3-0 over their last 3 games, as they come to Miami off a weekend sweep against the Reds.
Pitcher Jeff Suppan has been much better on the road this season than at home.
Suppan is 3-4 this season, but he is 3-1 on the road this season, and his road ERA is nearly 2 runs per game lower than his ERA at home.
Andrew Miller will counter, and the southpaw is just 1-2 in his 5 starts this year with an ERA of 4.61. We doubt Miller is going to be able to keep the Brewers big bats at bay for very long.
Play on Milwaukee.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Matt Fargo
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
The Padres are coming off a 3-3 roadtrip and are now back home where they have been on fire of late. San Diego is riding a current 10-game home winning streak where it is now 17-6 on the season. The victory on Sunday that salvaged a game against the Rockies moved the Padres to .500 on the year. Philadelphia swept the Nationals over the weekend which is becoming a common occurrence for teams playing Washington so the sweep is not overly impressive. The Phillies have been great on the road all season with a 16-6 record but 10 of those wins have come against teams that have losing records on the season so the record really is not as good as it looks. They send Joe Blanton to the hill and he is coming off his best performance of the season. He could carry that confidence and momentum into this start but he has been so inconsistent this season that I just do not see that happening. The only other time that he allowed fewer than two runs in a game he followed it up with a horrid performance, allowing six runs in eight innings against the Braves. Blanton has benefited from great run support and that may not happen tonight. The Padres counter with Kevin Correia whose numbers do not look good overall but they are skewed by a couple bad starts. He allowed 11 runs combined in two outings against Colorado and Arizona and take those away and his ERA drops from 5.11 to a much more solid 3.79. Three of his five starts at home have been quality outings and four of those saw him allow three runs or fewer and in total, San Diego is 4-1 in his five home starts. He has not faced the Phillies since 2003 so he is at an advantage from that standpoint. The Phillies are a Major League best 13-4 against left-handed starters but just 15-16 against righties on the season. Correia is 20-9 when pitching at home and the Padres are a solid 10-2 as home underdogs this season. 3* San Diego Padres