John Ryan
Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they host Arizona slated to start at 10:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 48-7 mark making 34.2 units for 87% winners since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 and is a poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season and after a win by 6 runs or more. Arizona is just 2-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line versus good fielding teams turning 1.1 or more DP's/game) this season. LAD are a perfect 10-0 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team sporting a win percentage of 38% to 46% this season. Arizona in another poor spot noting they are just 3-12 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Even in the absence of Manny, the Dodgers rank 2nd in runs scored, 1st in team batting average, 1st in OBP at 370, and 7th in OPS. The fact that they drop in the rankings based on OPS is that they are not a power hitting team and for that reason they can score runs using small ball or simply single and double their way to wins. Moreover the Dodgers rank 2nd behind STL in team ERA at 3.74. In the same ranking, the Dodgers starters have posted a 3.69 ERA on the season, but rank first by a wide margin in batting average allowed at just 231. They are by far the best team in baseball right now and based on the AiS longer term projections they could easily match their 35-17 start over the first 50 games. For today, take the Dodgers.
Alex Smart
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners
The Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher tonight against the Seattle Mariners Rich Hill (1-0, 6.14 ERA) is off a ugly outing in his third start of the season, allowing six earned runs and getting knocked out in the fourth inning. He did not get the loss because of his teams explosive bats. Hill goes against a M's side that has performed well against LH starters this season winning 10 of 16 confrontations. I am expecting him to have a sub-par start. It must be noted that Hill has garnered a bloated 6.13 ERA in his L/3 outings.
Jarrod Washburn (3-3, 3.45 ERA) the Mariners veteran southpaw takes to the mound to face a Baltimore offense, than can explode on the best of pitchers. The native of LaCrosse, Wisconsin, has not won any of his L/6 starts, and has recorded a hefty 5.29 ERA in his L/3 overall starts . In Washburns last 3 starts vs the Orioles he has been beaten around with his team losing all 3 games by 10-5 , 8-7, 7-4 counts , numbers and scores that would easily eclipse this opening number. Over is 5-0 in Washburns last 5 home starts vs. Orioles.
Everything points to this contest going over the number.
Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 13-3 in Orioles last 16 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 35-16-3 in Orioles last 54 road games vs. a left-handed starter . Baltimore is 20-6 OVER L/27 in road games against left-handed starters, with the average combined score ringing in at 10.9 RPG. Baltimore is 12-3 OVER in road games in night games this season with the average combined score clicking in at 12.1 RPG. The Mariners have gone OVER in 11 of their L/16 home games as favorites.
Play OVER
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Yankees are 8-0 THIS season on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led and the Tribe is 0-7 after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers. Consider backing the Yankees.
Nick Parsons
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Whitesox -135
After a strong finish on their road trip to close out May, the Chicago White Sox are looking forward to returning home—especially given the way they hit at U.S. Cellular Field last June. The White Sox begin a season-high 12-game homestand Monday when they take on the Oakland Athletics in the opener of a four-game series. Chicago (24-25) is trying to win its season-high fourth straight Monday after sweeping a weekend set at Kansas City. The White Sox went 5-1 on their road trip and won for the ninth time in 12 games overall with a 7-4 victory Sunday. Look for Oakland to fall to 8-11 (-2.5 units) when playing against a team with a losing record and for the WHITE SOX to improve to 7-3 (+3 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150!
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia -125 at SAN DIEGO
Late night tonight at Petco, go with the visiting Phillies over the upstart Padres.
San Diego had a nice run, but the Fathers have cooled off a tad, as they have dropped 3 of their last 5 games, and starter Kevin Correia is just 1-3 with an over 5 ERA this season.
The Phillies head west having won 3 straight, and 7 of their last 10, and playing on the road is really where Philadelphia has excelled, as the World Series champs are 16-6 away from home this season.
Joe Blanton looks to build on his best start in quite some time, as the burly righty just worked 7 scoreless in a win over division-rival Florida.
Philadelphia is 5-2 the last 2 years at Petco Park, and I will back them to open this series with the win tonight as the small road favorite.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
MLB Computer Picks
New York Yankees -160
Philadelphia Phillies -125
Mr A
New York Yankees -160
Houston Astros -140
LT Profits
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Livan Hernandez has turned back the clock for the New York Mets lately, and Ian Snell had been pitching well for the Pittsburgh Pirates until his last start, and we do not see the total output of this game reaching double-digits.
Seemingly out of nowhere, the ageless Hernandez has reeled of five Quality Starts in his last six outings, and his last start may be his best one yet. Hernandez tossed a Complete Game vs. the Washington Nationals in a 6-1 Mets victory last Tuesday, and he also posted a Quality Start vs. these Pirates in his only appearance against them three weeks ago, allowing two runs in six innings.
Now Snell has always been a head case, but his ability is undeniable and he seemed to turn a corner, posting seven Quality Starts out of eight starts entering his last outing vs. the Chicago Cubs. Well, make it seven out of nine after the Cubs hit him hard that day. Still, Snell did bounce back nicely from his last bad start, and he too had a Quality Start in his only start vs. the Mets this season, surrendering three runs and six hits in six innings.
Finally, the Mets offense has tailed off vs. right-handed pitchers lately, batting a modest .253 against them the last 10 games, and the erratic Pirates have hit just .236 vs. right-handers over this same span, so look for a safe Under here.
Pick: Mets/Pirates Under 9.5
GINA
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis’ Todd Wellemeyer (5-4, 5.02) is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four career starts against the Reds, St. Louis has won five of the right-hander last six home starts.
Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez (4-2, 4.25 ERA) comes off a 15-day disabled list. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.79 ERA in three career games against the Cardinals, Cincinnati is 13-3 in Vasquez’s last 16 road starts.
Go with the St. Louis Cardinals at home. St. Louis is is 8-4 in their last 12 games and has won five of its last 6 games at Busch Stadium. Meanwhile the Reds have dropped their last six road games and are just 2-5 in its last 7 games against St. Louis, 0-5 in the last five in St. Louis.
St. Louis Cardinals -125
Tom Freese
Cincinnati at St.Louis
Cincinnati is 8-0 on the road with Edinson Volquez vs. winning teams and they are 14-3 with Volquez if they are off a loss. The Reds are 24-9 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 7-3 their last 10 Monday games. St. Louis is 2-8 with Todd Wellemeyer in his last 10 starts vs. winning teams. Wellemeyer is 3-8 vs. NL Central teams. The Cardinals are 2-6 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days and they are 2-5 in Game One of a series. PLAY ON CINCINNATI (Volquez vs. Wellemeyer)
Jake Timlin
Tough road swing only gets harder tonight for the Athletics.
Oakland just avoiding being swept in a four game series in Texas, and now losers of four of their last five games the Athletics struggles will continue tonight as they travel to Chicago. Helping the White Sox will be the Athletics awful road record that stand at 8-16 on the year, and also the poor pitching from Cahill who is 2-5 on the year and is only getting worst as the righty is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.32 in his last three starts.
Bartolo Colon will counter with his improving ERA of 1.32 in his last three starts which is down from his already solid ERA of 3.80 on the year.
Go with Chicago as the home favorite.
PICK: Chicago White Sox
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Phillies/Padres UNDER 8
I'll take the Under tonight in pitcher-friendly Petco. I expect the starting pitchers to have the edge against the offenses because of the dimensions of the park and also because both teams come in jetlagged. The Phillies make the cross-country trip and the Padres return home from Colorado. The public is all over the Over here and that is right where the books want it. It makes more sense to go against the grain when you consider the data. The Padres lost by 1 run in Philly the last time these teams met back on April 19th and that sets up a very powerful system here as the Padres are 21-6 UNDER in home games revenging a one run loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these games totals 6.2 runs. Also, Joe Blanton is 17-5 UNDER in June games in his career. The Under is 8-1 in the Phillies last 9 overall coming in. Bet the Under here.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Hiroki Kuroda won his lone start of the season on April 6th going 5 and 2/3 innings allowing just one earned run on four hits. Los Angeles has the best home record in baseball at 18-5 and playing a Diamondbacks that scores just 3.8 runs per game on the road looks like a 19th is eminent. The Dodgers are 11-1 SU at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 and 11-4 SU when losing two of their last three. Arizona is 3-12 SU on the road when coming off five or more straight home games. Go with Los Angeles.
Play on: Los Angeles
Vernon Croy
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: New York Yankees
Take the New York Yankees on the Moneyline, The Yankees have the better overall pitcher on the mound tonight with Joba Chamberlain (2-1, 3.97 ERA) and they are 7-1 in their last 8 games against a lefty starter. Jeremy Sowers (1-2, 7.71) has struggled this season and this is his 1st start since May.12 although he pitched out of the bullpen last Monday. The Yankees are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games in game 4 of a series and they are 5-1 in Chamberlain's last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Indians are just 1-6 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record and they are also just 1-6 in Sowers' last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games played in Cleveland and the Indians have some key injuries with Grady Sizemore on the 15 day DL and Victor Martinez listed as questionable for tonight with a leg injury. Take the New York Yankees.
Jeff Benton
For Monday’s freebie on the diamond, we’ll take a shot with the Padres as a home underdog against Philadelphia.
I have no clue how in the hell San Diego has done it, but we’ve reached June 1 and this team that I had pegged for 100 losses easily this season is sitting at 25-25. The Padres beat Colorado 5-2 yesterday to complete a 3-3 road trip that wouldn’t be noteworthy at all except for the fact that they embarked on their journey with an 11-game road losing streak. Before they went on that six-game trip, the Pads enjoyed a perfect nine-game homestand that featured three-game sweeps of the Reds, Giants and Cubs, with the pitching staff allowing a total of eight runs in the final seven games.
That perfect homestand and 3-3 road trip leaves San Diego with a 12-3 mark in its last 15 games heading into tonight’s contest. In fact, the Padres have won 10 in a row at Petco Park and their 17-6 record is one of the best home marks in all of baseball.
True, the Padres will face a stiff test over the next three days as they face the defending champion Phillies, who have been much better on the road (16-6) than in Philly (12-14). But it’s not like San Diego is going to be at all intimidated, as it took two of three in Philadelphia back in April while beating the Phillies’ two best pitchers (Cole Hamels and Brett Myers). Tonight, the Padres go up against portly Joe Blanton, who sports an ERA (6.14) that’s as fat as he is. And that’s after pitching seven scoreless innings in his last start on Tuesday against Florida.
As for San Diego starter Kevin Correia, he’s been nothing special to be sure. But the Padres did win his last two home starts in which the right-hander posted a 2.70 ERA, and they’re 4-1 in Correia’s five games at Petco Park this season. Throw in the fact San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine against N.L. East teams and has won seven straight as a home pup, and I’ll side with the undervalued host.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Freddy Wills
NEW YORK METS / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take NY Mets
McClouth is 4-32 in his last 10 games and is the main reason why the Pirates have lost 7 of 10. Mets have Livan Hernandez going tonight who is hot coming off back to back clutch performances. He has a 3.45 ERA @ night this year in 7 GS. The last time he faced the Pirates this year he went 6IP giving 7 H and 4BB but only 2ER. With control no longer being an issue for Livan (2BB last 3 starts) I look for him to have a great performance against a struggling Pirates lineup. Ian Snell will go to the mound for the Pirates and he has a 8.31 ERA his last 3 starts.