Lenny Del Genio
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Under
These teams have played Over the total in each of the three games thus far in this series and now seven of the last eight head to head meetings overall. Good news for us and Under players is that Jake Peavy is on the bump for the Padres and despite a less than stellar 2009 campaign to date, Peavy is 27-12 Under L39 starts at Petco. Arizona is a perfect 8-0 Under this season as a road dog of +125 to +175 while San Diego is 9-0 Under at home since 1997 if their bullpen threw 9+ innings last game. Remember these teams went 18 innings yesterday. The position players will be just as, if not more tired than the arms. Take Under.
Wunderdog
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Detroit Tigers G2
The Chicago White Sox will start Jose Contreras in game two of their doubleheader vs. the Tigers. Contreras will be 38-years-old before the year ends, but many feel he is much older than that. Despite the disagreement, he is pitching like he is much older. He has made six starts for the White Sox on the season, and they are 0-6 having been outscored 50-17! Contreras has been so bad that he was demoted to the minors, and this is likely a spot start, as the White Sox need an arm for the twin bill. The Tigers will regain the services of Jeremy Bonderman, who had shoulder surgery, and his rehab went well in AAA Toledo where he pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings. It’s hard to get anywhere near Contreras and the White Sox right now, so I’m going with the Tigers in this one.
Freddy Wills
San Francisco Giants vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
Randy Johnson comes off his 300th win where he did leave with a shoulder bruise. He has an amazing 8-1 1.78 ERA career record against the Fish. However, he has just 1 start in 5 seasons against the Marlins. Randy Johnson will go on 3 days rest today! He has not done that in the last 3 seasons. I did not research past that because once I saw he did not have a 3 day rest start in 06-08 it became irrelevant in my opinion he is a very different starter since 05.
West the LHP will go up and will likely be more motivated going up against a Hall of Fame Lefty. In the last 10 games the Giants are hitting .234 vs. LHP 3.03 runs per 9 while the Marlins .324 avg vs. LHP and 7.99 R/9!
This was very close to being a premium selection, but it just missed the cut. 61% of the betting public are on the Giants here yet the line has not moved accordingly. The Marlins opened at -120 and the line has moved up to -128, -133 and as high as -139 in some places.
Info Plays
3* on Arizona Diamondbacks +155
Reasons why Arizona wins:
1.) Jake Peavy has been far from dominant this season and should not be this heavily favored Monday. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall, and their lack of run support is the sole reason why they should never be this big of a favorite. The Padres are scoring just 3.7 RPG at home. Arizona’s John Garland has been at his best on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.01 ERA in 5 road starts.
2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (NL). This is a 44-26 ML System hitting 62.9% over the last 5 seasons and gaining 36.8 Units. Just betting $100/Play you would be up $3,680! Bet the Diamondbacks on the road.
Scott Delaney
Now on a 14-5 run with the complimentary releases after the Nationals were shellacked by the Mets. Tonight we're playing the Yankees on the run line against visiting Tampa Bay.
I’ll lay the run line with the pinstripes in this one, as they continue to sit atop the AL East, and will want to maintain that lead with a win tonight, as it’s only by half-game over the Red Sox. After yesterday’s 4-3 win over the defending AL champs, the Yankees have now won seven of their last 10, and own a 17-11 mark in new Yankee Stadium.
We’re backing veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte, who is 5-2 on the year, with a 4.33 ERA. And while I know he has proven to be a better pitcher on the road than at home, where his ERA is 5.79 in six starts, I’m thinking this is the game that will spark a surge for him. The Rays beat him twice in four starts last season, while he has two no-decisions against the Rays this season, having allowed eight runs in 13-1/3 innings. Today he gets revenge.
And he gets the run support against Andy Sonnanstine, who has been disastrous the whole season. Though the right-hander looked sharp his last time out, it was against Kansas City; these are the Yankees. And with a 4-5 mark and 7.07 ERA, I’m thinking we’re going to see a huge blowout here since he’s 1-5 on the highway with a 9.00 ERA. Lay the home run line here.
1♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
The Mets cruise to an easy win to give us Comp Play winner No. 6 in a row yesterday. We’re making it 7 straight tonight as we’re taking the Pirates on the road at the Braves.
The Pirates come into tonight’s game having played solid ball lately, having won 4 of their last 6 games overall and having gone 6-1 their last 7 games against the National League East.
The Braves, on the other hand, have had their share of struggles lately, having lost 8 of their last 12 games overall, including 3 of their last 4.
Against Pittsburgh the Braves have lost 2 of 3 this season and going back to last year are just 3-7 against the Pirates. In Atlanta, the Pirates have won 2 of their last 3 and will win another tonight.
Take the Pirates on the road in this one.
3♦ PIRATES
Craig Davis
The good news is, we hit yet another free play yesterday with the Giants and that makes three in a row. Free play winners have been becoming a thing of habit, and tonight's should be no different as I expect the Padres to "run rule" the DBacks early. I'm fully aware that Jake Peavy's overall numbers aren't quite what they should be, but pitching at home vs. on the road is like night and day. When Peavy gets to take the hill at Petco Park, his ERA is 3.74 as opposed to 4.60 on the road. His WHIP is also much lower at home and opponents are only hitting .210 against him there. Peavy has pitched against the Diamondbacks 28 times in his career (more than any other team) and has struck out an amazing 186 batters in 167 innings of work. If San Diego even gives Peavy an ounce of run support tonight, he'll cruise to his sixth victory of the season. Play the Padres on the run line as your fourth free play winner in a row.
2♦ SAN DIEGO RUN LINE
Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh Pirates +125
Detroit/Chicago White Sox Over 10
Indian Cowboy
Take Under 8.5 between the Minnesota Twins @ Oakland A's
The Twins have played in 8 of 10 unders quietly as it was only a matter of time before the perennial lack of offense catches up with them. Swarzack, the young man from Fort Lauderdale, Florida hurls form them again in his fourth start this year. He has had 2 quality starts for them his first two go arounds but struggled in his latest start as he gave up 9 hits and 6 runs to Cleveland in 4 innings. I expect him to have a bounce-back today on the road in Oakland while at the same while Outman has been lights out for the As. He is 3-0 with a 3.02era and what has been most impressive is his string of 5 quailty starts in a row. He has given up just 2 earned runs in his last nearly 14 innings at home and I expect this game to likely dip under today. The Under is 10-2 for the Twins in their last 12 games while the Under is 12-3 for the As in their last 15 overall.
Randall the Handle
TEXAS -1½ +1.34 over Toronto
Hard to envision Casey Janssen having much success in this outing. Not only has Janssen been laboring badly since coming off the DL but his confidence is extremely low right now. A pitcher going out there and not believing in his stuff is trouble right away. To make matters worse, he has to be feeling a little anxious about pitching at this park against this host. In three starts covering 17 innings since his return, Janssen has four lousy strikeouts. He was an alarming 1.76 WHIP and the league is hitting .342 off him after allowing 26 hits in those 17 frames. The Rangers are feeling great after taking two of three at Fenway, a rare feat, and one has to like their chances tonight with Scott Feldman going. Feldman has been nothing short of solid with a 5-0 record, a 3.79 ERA and a .224 BAA. When you consider that Feldman has pitched in NY against the Yankees and four games at home among others, his numbers are even more impressive. When talking about confidence, Feldman’s is soaring while Janssen’s is bottoming out. The Rangers are 18-9 at home and you’ll all remember the Jays recent eight-game losing streak, which all came on the road. Lay the extra half run. It’s called for. Play Texas -1½ +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
BIG AL
At 8:10pm our complimentary selection is on the DETROIT TIGERS over the Chicago White Sox. This is the second game of a Monday double-header and it is a very intriguing pitching matchup. Detroit will activate veteran Jeremy Bonderman from the disabled list for his first start of the season while Chicago will promote Jose Contreras from AAA and put him back in the rotation where he was at the beginning of the season. There are several reasons to like Bonderman and the TIgers here. First, while Bonderman hasn't pitched in the Majors since June 1 of last season, he is still relatively young at 28 years old and his injury was a blood clot in his arm for which he had successful surgery. Secondly, Bonderman has looked very good in his minor league rehab this season, going 1-0 with a 3.10 ERA in three starts covering just over 20 innings. Finally, Contreras who the Sox are reporting will be promoted after the first game of this double-header, was absolutely awful prior to his demotion after his May 8 start is not relatively young at a reported 37 years of age (reported because some say that he is actually a few years older). Contreras comes back to the rotation after going 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA in six starts and it really doesn't get much worse than that. It's pretty simple; with Bonderman tonight, you don't know exactly what you're going to get. With Contreras, you pretty much know what you're getting, and it isn't pretty. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.