Jr Tips
ANGELS vs. GIANTS
With both teams coming off sweeps, the Giants look to shut down a red-hot Angels lineup tonight. The Giants (34-28) have won 14 of their last 19, posting a 2.60 ERA during that span and San Francisco has scored five runs or more for the fourth time in six games. Los Angeles (32-29) hit nine homers and averaged 8.7 runs in sweeping a three-game series from San Diego and now they will face San Francisco's Barry Zito (3-6, 4.09 ERA), who has had trouble keeping the ball in the park. The left-hander won Wednesday night despite pitching five shaky innings, giving up four runs and seven hits in San Francisco's 6-4 victory over Arizona. Zito is 12-9 with a 3.55 ERA in 28 starts against the Angels. Los Angeles will start John Lackey (1-2, 6.61), who was terrible in his last start, allowing nine runs and 11 hits in five innings of Los Angeles' 9-5 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. Tonight, the right-hander who loss in his only start versus the Giants will be facing a San Francisco lineup that is coming off one of its most productive games at home this year, winning for the ninth time in 10 games there. The Giants finished 4 for 6 with runners in scoring position. Both these teams are playing at a high level on offense which will continue tonight especially against these two pitchers that have had trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark. This run total is way too low.
TAKE OVER 8 1/2 RUNS
Jeff Benton
Milwaukee at CLEVELAND
I’ll admit that neither starter pitcher in this contest – Cleveland’s Carl Pavano and Milwaukee’s Dave Bush – is headed to the All-Star Game anytime soon. Both are mediocre at best and have been knocked around on multiple occasions this season, especially lately. That said, both have respectable career numbers against tonight’s opposition – Bush has a 3.00 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland, all of which went under the total; Pavano is 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 10 lifetime appearances (eight starts) versus Milwaukee, giving up three earned runs or fewer in seven of the last eight starts.
Also, the under is 5-0 in Bush’s five road starts this season, with an average combined run total of 7.6. And while Pavano has struggled in Cleveland (6.53 ERA), the average runs scored in his five home starts is still just 9.0, which is still less than this posted total tonight.
More than anything, though, this play is about two offenses that are really struggling and two bullpens that have been lights out of late. Over the past 10 games, the Brewers are batting .232 as a team and their relievers have a 2.76 ERA. During that same span, the Indians are hitting .233 overall with a 2.25 bullpen ERA.
Over its last 21 games, Milwaukee has played just six games that featured double-digit run totals, with the last six in a row and nine of the last 10 staying in single digits. Similarly, the Indians have topped 9 ½ runs just six times in their last 17 contests. Throw in the fact that the under is 5-2-1 in the Brewers’ last eight interleague contests and 10-2-1 in Cleveland’s last 13 against the National League (including 7-1-1 at home), and we’ll play this one low.
2♦ Brewers-Indians UNDER
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NBA Game Five
Triple Perfect Play! - Sunday 6/14
Play On: Orlando Magic
Note: The Magic hosts the Lakers in Game Five of this year's NBA Finals Sunday night at Amway Arena in a great winning situation. For openers, teams in the NBA FInals, playing off one loss exact as a favorite are 10-3 ATS when priced as a dog or favorite of less than 5 points, including 9-0 SU and ATS if they were favored by 3 or more points in their previous game. That fits nicely into Orlando's 25-3 SU and 18-9-1 ATS mark this season as a favorite of a loss, including 5-0 SU and ATS versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or more. Finally we point to the Lakers 0-15 ATS mark in SU losses in the NBA Finals, including 0-8 when taking points. Look for Orlando to take the series back to Los Angeles with a big win here tonight.
MREAST NBA SUNDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
The Orlando Magic have their back up against the wall, and will have to lay it all out for this one or they are going to be on the golf course next week, instead of the hardwood in LA. This series has been decidedly defensive, so much so that 2 of the games went into overtime, yet still managed to come in well under the total. It would be a very comfortable pick to ride the under here, but in the NBA playoffs, what happened in yesterday's game, isn't as important in determining the next game as historical records in like circumstances. I played game 3 over and it was the highest scoring game of the series so far, as both teams shot the lights out of the arena. So here we go to game 5, with the total a long distance from where it opened in game 1, and many will be on the under here. I won't be one of them. Game 5's in the NBA finals, often dtermined to be a pivital game have shown a high propensity to play as one of the highest scoring games of the series. The last 7 years have shown game 5 to be either the highest scoring game of the series of the first 5 played, or the 2nd highest. The 7 games have seen 6 of them play over. Last year the Celtics and Lakers were playing unders at the same rate, 3-1 under through 4 games, but game 5 went over. The '07 series went just 4 games, but in '06 afyter 3-1 to the under, Dallas and Miami played the highest scoring game of the series through 5 games. The '05 series between Detroit and San Antonio did the same thing. The last 7 played in Orlando have seen 6 of 7 go over. This one will surprise many and go OVER the total.
#709 LA LAKERS @ #710 ORLANDO MAGIC 8:05PM EDT
PLAY ON #709 LA LAKERS AND #710 ORLANDO MAGIC OVER 198.5 FOR 3 UNITS
Rocketman Sports
TOP 4* MLB BEST BET Sunday! 13-2 87% last 15!!
MLB
NY Mets @ NY Yankees 1:05 PM EST
Play On: 4* NY Mets +105 (Santana/Burnett) Listed
NY Mets bullpen has a 2.97 ERA overall this year and a 3.34 ERA on the road this season. Johan Santana is 8-3 with a 2.39 ERA overall, 3-2 with a 2.75 ERA on the road and 2-1 his last 3 starts. Santana is 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA overall vs NY Yankees since 1997. AJ Burnett is 2-6 overall vs NY Mets since 1997. Mets are 4-0 in Santanas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Mets are 11-2 in Santanas last 13 starts with 4 days of rest. Mets are 5-1 in Santanas last 6 Sunday starts. Mets are 8-2 in Santanas last 10 road starts. Mets are 4-1 in Santanas last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll play the NY Mets for 4 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
LAKERS / MAGIC Game Five 4* OVER / UNDER BEST BET from KING CREOLE:
8:05pm ET / Game Five - NBA FINALS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ ORLANDO MAGIC
4* BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
As we have discussed many times in the past (and in earlier rounds of this year's Playoffs), DESPERATION leads to weird, quirky, sloppy.... and HIGH-SCORING results. And that's the case for the MAGIC on Sunday night, as they face NBA Finals elimination. So far in the 2009 Playoffs, ELIMINATION GAMES have gone 'OVER The TOTAL' as a very high percentage (83%). And over the last 5 seasons, these games in Rounds 2, 3, and 4 have gone 'OVER the TOTAL' at an even HIGHER rate (88%). With all pertinent and applicable database situations backing us up in terms of 'OU ammo', we fully expect a higher-scoring outcome than the linesmakers anticipate.
Let's look at the previous OU pattern in the first four games of this series. Game One and Two went UNDER... Game Three went OVER.. and Game Four went UNDER. So what's the historical OU tendencies for Game Five?
How about a PERFECT 4-0 O/U? That's for all NBA Playoff GAME FIVES off an UNDER... OVER... UNDER... UNDER (in the first 4 games)... when the OU line is 183 or more points.
NBA Playoff home teams who come off a home Playoff game that they were SUPPOSED to win (as in 'favorite') have also cashed in with very strong "OVER" results. That's the case for the MAGIC, who lost outright as home favs of -1.5 points on Thursday night. In fact, so far in THIS season's NBA Playoffs, these situations have gone 8-1-1 O/U. Our official query for this situation reads as follows:
8-1-1 O/U for all NBA Playoff home favorites playing off a Playoff home favorite SU LOSS (Magic).
Now let's work our way backwards to find out if this season's tendencies are a 'one-year wonder'... or whether these high-scoring results have hit at an equally high percentage in the past. The numbers look good for our 'OVER'.
22-11-2 O/U since 1999: All NBA Playoff home favs playing off a SU home fav Playoff loss in ROUNDS 2, 3, and 4 (Magic). If our host is favored by only 5 or less points, the results improve to 13-3-1 O/U. And in the last 7 seasons (since 2003), the results are an almost PERFECT 10-1-1 O/U.
Sunday night's OU line (around 198.5 points) is also favorable depending on which game of a Playoff series that we're talking about.
14-4-1 O/U since 1997: All NBA Playoff GAME FIVES with an OU line range of 195 to 200 points. If our favorite comes in off a SU Loss, the results improve to 6-1 O/U.
The OVERTIME angle in last Thursday's game also points us in the right direction.
7-2-1 O/U since 1997: All NBA Playoff favorites of -6 or less points playoff off a SU favorite OVERTIME playoff loss. If our favorite lost that last game by more than 6 points, the results improve to perfect 4-0 O/U.
Let's not forget that despite Thursday night's 'UNDER', this LAKER / MAGIC series has STILL gone 6-1 O/U in the last 7 meetings played down here in the SUNSHINE STATE (In Orlando).
A look at the Day of the Week 'seals the deal' for us!
4-0 O/U last 4 years: All NBA Playoff FINAL ROUND games played on a SUNDAY when the OU line is < 200 points.
3-0 O/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff GAME FIVES played on a SUNDAY.
James Patrick's NBA Finals 5* Pot of Gold
Los Angeles vs. Orlando 8:05 p.m.est.
Orlando shot a NBA 1st half playoff record 68% from the field in the first half in their first home game and it's highly likely to see that kind of offense again here as the Magicians are down (3-1) in this series and it's all or nothing in this game.. Lakers and the Magic have played Over the Total in 6 of 7 ATS in Orlando.Let the Scoring Begin!
5* Pot of Gold #709 Lakers - Orlando Magic Over the Total
Jim Feist's 5* Sunday Night Baseball Inner Circle
MLB (953) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS at (954) CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take: (953) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (5* Inner Circle)
Reason: Cliff Lee was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, but has fallen upon hard times this season. Lee is 3-6 on the season with a 3.17 ERA. However, Lee continues to rack up the strike outs with 63 on the season versus just 18 walks. Chris Carpenter has been fantastic for the Cardinals. Carpenter is 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA this season in seven games and has walked just six batters in 44 innings. The Cardinals are just 1/2 game behind division leading Milwaukee, while Cleveland is stuck in last place in the AL Central. This game was moved to Sunday night and that's where the Cardinals and Carpenter will shine. Take the visitors here as a small dog or at pick!!!
Brad Diamond Sports 15* MLB PITCHING BOX (7-0 SIDE RUN)
15* (963)Boston (Beckett) over Philadelphia
MLB PITCHING BOX 7-0 L7...
Hard pressed to ignore dominating series put together by Boston in Philadelphia. After winning 11-6 last night, the Sox have now won 10 of 12 against World Champions. Boston goes for a three game sweep down at Citizens Bank Park early this afternoon. Becket is 7-2 with a 3.72 ERA overall, but has won the last five with 1.70 ERA. Career wise, Beckett is 8-3 with a 3.79 ERA vs. the Phillies. Lefty Happ of Philadelphia is 2-0 with a 3.42 this season, but had location problems last Tuesday against the Mets up in New York. Overall, with the Sox pitching talent, it is clear to see the edge Francona and company have vs. the World Champs.
Great Lakes Sports
Has A Sunday Night NBA Dominator !!
NBA Selection:
LA Lakers at Orlando 8:00PM EST Play on: 4* (710) Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic has a very nice 62-43 ATS record this year, and they are a very solid 14-5 ATS playing with two days of rest this year. The Orlando Magic is also 11-3 ATS vs Pacific division opponents this year, and the Magic is also a very respectable 22-12 ATS when revenging a loss vs an opponent this year. We look for the Orlando Magic to grab the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.
6-0 TOP PLAY RUN: GM 4 *TOP* from SCOTT RICKENBACH!
Scott Rickenbach’s NBA Top Play: Orlando Magic (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 PM ET – The Magic have not lost back to back home games this entire season! That’s right, in both the playoffs and in the regular season you will not find a single instance where the Magic lost two straight games at Amway Arena. Many are expecting Orlando to just “pack it in†for the season as they know that a win here only guarantees them of a trip back to Los Angeles. There the Magic would have to win twice to earn the title and no team in Finals history has ever overcome a 3-1 deficit. However, this is not just “any teamâ€. We’re certainly not saying that the Magic are going to come back and win this series. We’re just saying that this is an extremely resilient group that has successfully battled through adversity all season long. Note that they very easily could be up 3-1 in this series but two tight finishes that swung against them have prevented that.
Certainly credit is due to the Lakers for the way they’ve closed out some games in this series but we also know that the Lakers Kobe Bryant has shot progressively worse with each game in these Finals. Should he be expected to suddenly turn that around Sunday? We don’t believe so. The Magic are going to bring a huge effort defensively and they’ve done a good job on him as this series has progressed. The last thing Orlando wants is to see the Lakers taking possession of the Championship Trophy at the Amway Arena. The Magic will fight all the way in this game and certainly the poor free throw shooting as well as sub-par three-point shooting from Orlando should not be expected to be repeated here. Before Thursday’s loss, the Magic had won five straight home games. Also, in their last three home games Orlando had shot 52.2%! One bad shooting game at home does not mean that the Magic have suddenly lost their shooting touch. In fact, throughout the post-season, Orlando has shown the ability to bounce back after a poor shooting night. Also note that they had 17 more free throw attempts than the Lakers did in Game Four and they also won the battle of the boards, and had eight more blocked shots than Los Angeles did.
The Lakers have had some trouble at times with intensity throughout this series. That could again be a problem here as, in the back of their minds, they know they have two more opportunities to close this series out at home. As for the Magic, they know it’s closing time now. It’s “win or go home†time and the Magic, like Dwight Howard, have already packed their bags for a trip west to Los Angeles. This resilient club had success with ball screens throughout the first half of Game Four. They then saw their offense falter in the second half when Hedo Turkoglu sat on the bench with foul trouble. The Magic are back tonight and look for a duplicate of their first half performance in Game Four. However, the difference this time is that it carries all the way through the game and, without a doubt, the Magic should be the more intense and focused squad here. Play Orlando minus the points as a Top Play selection.
Tom Freese
Blue Line Club NBA Game 20*
"NO BRAINER" SIDE WINNER SUNDAY!
Tom Freese Blue Line Club- Sunday, June 14
Los Angeles at Orlando (8:05pm)
Orlando is in a 60-29 ATS Play On System that says to Play On home teams when the line is -3 to +3 if they are off a loss where they were favored if they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% if they are playing a team with a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 3-11-1 ATS their last 15 NBA Finals games and they are 4-10
ATS off a win. The Lakers are 3-7 ATS on Sunday and they are 5-11 ATS vs. Southeast Division teams. 20* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON ORLANDO -
Alex Smart's MLB ESPN Totals Smash -Tests 61-38 62% Run
8:05p St. Louis Cardinals r953
Cleveland Indians r954
o7.0 (-110) / 3 units Cliff Lee (3-6, 3.17 ERA) the ace of the Cleveland Indians pitching staff goes to the hill tonight, to face an explosive St.Louis batting order that is lead by the likes of Albert Pujols . The Tribes right hander after a Cy Young award winning season, has looked quite human this season, and could be in big trouble against Pujols, the all-time leader in interleague batting average at .355 (155 for 437) with 30 homers and 100 RBIs. I know Lee owns some great won/loss numbers in interleague starts, but has still be hittable, as is evident by a 3.42 ERA in 19 outings. It must be noted Lees team in his L/31 starts in the month of June, have seen the average combined score ring in at 11.5 RPG.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals Chris Carpenter despite of jumping out to a quick 4-0 start this season has been showing some cracks of late, with a 2.57 ERA in his past three starts after a perfect first four outings. He is a top tier pitcher, but has shown some lapses in interlegue play in the past, as is evident by a 7-9 record along with a 4.85 ERA in 23 interleague starts, including 2-3 mark along with a bloated 5.31 ERA since becoming a Cardinal in 2004.
Look for and bet on a score that eclipses the number.
Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 41-13-3 in Cardinals last 57 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 8-3 in Lees last 11 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 , with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts, who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings is 38-9 on the Over. The Over is 6-0-1 in Carpenters last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record . The Over is 16-5 in umpire Rob Drakes last 21 interleague games behind home plate. Over is 12-3 in Drakes last 15 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland. Over is 4-0 in Lees last 4 starts with Drake behind home plate.
Play OVER -3*
Tom Stryker's 13-1 ATS NBA Finals Game 5 Big Money Play
3* #710 ORLANDO (-) over LA Lakers at 8 PM EST
Down 3-to-1 in this best-of-seven series, Orlando knows what needs to be done. The Magic must respond right here and right now or this Championship is over.As stated in my game three analyses, Orlando has been phenomenal coming off a straight up loss. In their last 53 games off a blemish, the Magic stand 42-11 SU and 38-14-1 ATS including a sensational 23-2 SU and 21-3-1 ATS in this role priced as a favorite of -7 or less. Please note: At home in this tightener, Orlando improves to a nearly perfect 13-1-1 ATS!If you were ever going to fade the Lakers the rest of this series, this is the time to do it. Coming off a straight up post-season road win, Los Angeles is a dismal 3-8 SU and ATS provided they're priced as an underdog in its next game. To make matters worse, LA is a woeful 10-22-3 ATS overall in the NBA Finals dating back to the 1991 meeting with Chicago including a stunning 1-7-1 ATS in this set priced as a pup of +1.5 or more.The Magic know how to beat the Lakers. They've done it three times this season. At home, with their proverbial backs to the wall, Superman and Company will get the job done. Take Orlando. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
GINA
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Angels have dropped four of their last five road games and four of its last five versus the Giants in San Francisco. Go with the Giants at AT&T Park. San Francisco is 9-1 in its last 10 games at home, 21-9 this season and lefty Barry Zito is 12-9 with a 3.55 ERA in 28 career starts against the Angels.
San Francisco Giants +100
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee +105 at CLEVELAND
Now on a 15-4 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Cubs over the Twins 3-2 Sunday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Milwaukee/Cleveland match-up.
I freely admit the Brewers have not been playing well of late, but let's not get too carried away, 4 of their last 6 losses have been by just 1 run, and their 3.89 team ERA over their L10 games is still better than Cleveland's over the same span (4.04). Not only that, but tonight's pitching match up is not nearly as lopsided as some are making it out to be. Read on...
True, Carl Pavano had a nice 4-start run going, where he was on-point from mid-May to early-June. But his last start is a quick reminder of why he simply cannot be trusted, getting rocked for 9 runs on 11 hits over just 4 2/3 innings against the Royals (at home no less)! Some of you are calling for a bounce back effort here, but I'm not convinced. Pavano is 2-2 with an ugly 6.53 ERA at Progressive Field, and the Brewers are absolutely desperate for a win... But that's only one piece of the puzzle.
On the flip side, Dave Bush has been up and down this season, but overall there's two things you've got like in this match up: A. He's been effective on the road, going 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. And B. More importantly, he's been solid vs. the Indians in the past, going 0-1, but with a 3.00 ERA in 3 career starts.
Finally, there's all this talk about the Brewers sputtering offense lately, but fact is, the Indians have not been any better. Both teams are batting about .232 over their last 10 games, and let's not forget the Tribe is batting .243 against righties at home, averaging just 4.0 runs in the process. In the end, do not make the mistake of discounting the Brew Crew in this spot, as they are not only desperate for a win, but also have a more favorable pitching match up than most are giving them credit for.
Take Milwaukee behind Bush over Cleveland and Pavano in this MLB match up.
1♦ MILWAUKEE
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner is on the SF Giants over the Angels for two main reasons. First off, the Giants are deadly at home. Other than the Dodgers, I'm not sure I'd trust a team to win a big home game more than I'd trust the San Francisco Giants. They step up their defense at home, they pitch better at home and they hit the ball better at home. Secondly, I just don't trust John Lackey. Sure, I know what type of pitcher he "can" be, but he hasn't proven it yet since coming back from injury, and until he puts it all together, how could I possibly back this guy? Lackey has just one win since he started pitching back in May, and that game finished 10-6, so it's not like he dominated. He just happened to get a bunch of run support and left the game in the 6th inning with the lead. I'm sorry, but I'm not impressed by that and neither should you be. Take the Giants at home at a very fair price to beat the Angels.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians
(902) Cleveland Indians -$120
(Listing Pavano and Bush)
Indians starting pitcher Carl Pavano had three quality starts in a row before his horrible outing in his last start against Kansas City. I like Pavano to bounce back with a solid performance in this game. Milwaukee's starting pitcher Dave Bush has lost two straight and three out of four starts and has allowed at least three runs in each. His ERA has shot up the charts since it stood at 3.74 after a win on May 19. Take the Tribe here.
2009 Free Selections Record 85-75 (53.1%)
BIG AL
Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians
Both the Indians and Milwaukee Brewers have been trending to the low side of posted totals, and that should continue tonight at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
Milwaukee and Cleveland play the first series against each other since exactly three years ago, and the Indians no doubt hope to continue the success they've had in their earlier weekend interleague series as they took two of three from Milwaukee's divisional rival, St. Louis.
The Tribe would like nothing more than to repeat the pitching performance of last night as the Indians beat the Cards 3-0, and while it's unlikely that righthander Carl Pavano will be able to duplicate the complete game three-hitter that was brilliantly thrown by Cliff Lee in that last game, don't be surprised if Pavano has a strong showing at home against a team that he's seen several times in the past.
Pavano's opposing pitcher will be Dave Bush, and Bush hasn't gotten much support from his teammates lately as the Brewers have only scored more than three runs in one of the last four of his starts, with four of Bush's last five starts going under the total.
The Under is 6-3-1 in Milwaukee's last 10 games overall and 10-2-1 in Cleveland's last 13 interleague contests. Take the Under.
Pick: Brewers-Indians Under 9½
Rob Homyak
SFG / ANA Under 8.5
Lackey under is 13-3-3 in interleague games, 10-2 against the N.L. West, 8-2 on Mondays and 9-4 in the opener of a series.
Zito for the Giants under is 4-2 at home and 4 of 5 interleague contests.
San Francisco on under runs of 7-3-2 overall, 8-3-1 in interleague action, 5-2-2 in interleague home games, 5-2 against right-handed pitching and 21-9-3 against A.L. West opposition. In this rivalry the under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in San Francisco.
Head to Head
Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in San Francisco.
Mike Anthony
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Over 9.5
Bad pitching equals a lot of runs tonight in Cleveland. In a match up teams that have some pitching, both teams are known for their offense which will be on full display tonight as combined both teams’ average 9.5 runs per game. Now mix in the poor pitching of both starting pitchers tonight and it’s easy to expect a high scoring game. Pitching for the Indians will be Pavano whose ERA is 5.40 thanks to allowing 9 earned runs in his last start. Bush, meanwhile, will counter with an ERA of 4.58 in twelve starts on the season and an even higher ERA of 7.20 over his last three starts. In a slugfest take the OVER tonight at Progressive Field.