Monday's MLB Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
There are just two American League games on Monday’s schedule with both of them taking place in the morning, so I’m going to focus on a couple National League contests. There are three quality contests on the bill featuring a pair of road favorites, so let’s break down these Monday matchups.
**Dodgers (Penny) at Reds (Belisle)**
-Caesars Palace installed Los Angeles as a $1.35 road ‘chalk’ over Cincinnati, with the total set at nine. This contest is scheduled to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET.
-Los Angeles pitcher Brad Penny (2-2, 2.96 ERA) snapped out of a personal two-game slide to beat Pittsburgh Wednesday as a $2.00 home favorite, 8-1. The right-hander was reached for an unearned run on five hits with no walks and four strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings.
-The combined nine runs toppled the 8 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash his second straight start.
-Penny beat the Reds last year as a $1.75 home ‘chalk,’ 7-3, going 6 1/3 innings while allowing one run on four hits with a walk and four strikeouts. The combined 10 runs went ‘over’ the 7 ½-run closing total.
-Cincinnati gives the starting nod to right-hander Matthew Belisle who is coming off the 15-day disabled list due to a sore right forearm. The five-year veteran went 8-9 last season in 30 starts, going a combined 177 2/3 innings while yielding 111 runs (105 earned) on 212 hits (26 home runs) with 43 walks and 125 strikeouts for a 5.32 ERA.
-Belisle did not start against the Dodgers last season. The Texas native was used mostly as a reliever until last year, making 90 appearances in 2005 and 2006 and only seven starts.
**Cardinals (Wainwright) at Brewers (Villanueva)**
-Caesars Palace lists Milwaukee as a $1.15 home ‘chalk’ over St. Louis, with the total set at nine ‘under’ (minus $1.20). This National League Central contest is scheduled to start at 8:05 p.m. ET.
-St. Louis pitcher Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.78 ERA) toppled Milwaukee Wednesday as a $1.33 home favorite, 5-4. The 6-foot-7 hurler went 7 2/3 innings, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits with two walks and six strikeouts.
-The combined nine runs slithered ‘over’ the 8 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 2-1 when he’s on the hill.
-Wainwright went 1-1 against the Brewers last season in two starts, going a combined 12 innings while surrendering nine runs (four earned) on 10 hits (one home run) with five walks and 15 strikeouts. The Cardinals prevailed as a $1.10 road underdog, 8-0, while losing as a $1.30 road ‘dog, 13-5.
-Milwaukee counters with Carlos Villanueva (1-2, 6.19 ERA) who was the losing pitcher to Wainwright and the Cardinals in that Wednesday matchup. Villanueva was roughed up for five runs on eight hits (two home runs) with two walks and no strikeouts over just 4 2/3 innings.
-The Dominican Republic native has seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 during his three starts this season.
-Villanueva fell to the Cardinals in his lone effort against them last year as a $2.00 home ‘chalk,’ 7-3. The righty went six innings, yielding three runs on five hits (one home run) with four walks and three strikeouts. The combined 10 runs went ‘over’ the nine-run closing total.
**Phillies (Kendrick) at Rockies (Redman)**
-Caesars Palace opened Philadelphia as a $1.10 road favorite over Colorado, with the total listed at 11 ‘over’ (minus $1.15). This matchup is slated to start at 8:35 p.m. ET.
-Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick (1-2, 4.40 ERA) has dropped his last two outings after falling to Houston Wednesday as a $1.15 home ‘chalk,’ 2-1. The two-year veteran tossed seven innings, surrendering two runs on four hits (one home run) with a walk and five strikeouts.
-The combined three runs never seriously threatened the 9 ½-run closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings for the right hander.
-Kendrick went 0-1 against the Rockies last year in two starts, going a combined nine innings while yielding seven runs on 17 hits (one home run) with two walks and five strikeouts.
-The Phillies ended dropping those games as a $1.45 road underdog, 7-6, and as a $1.73 home favorite, 12-0. The ‘over’ cashed in both matchups.
-Colorado left-hander Mark Redman (2-1, 4.60 ERA) heads to the hill for the first time since beating San Diego Wednesday as a $1.28 road underdog, 10-2. The former Oklahoma Sooner was reached for two runs on three hits with three walks and two strikeouts over five innings.
-The combined 12 runs eclipsed the 8 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash his second start in a row.
-Redman fell to the Phillies last year as a $1.23 home underdog, 6-4, allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits with three walks and a strikeout over just 1 2/3 innings. The combined 10 runs slithered ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (10-7) at Chicago Cubs (12-6)
Two red-hot teams get together for a brief two-game set at Wrigley Field in Chicago, with the Mets’ John Maine (1-1, 3.78 ERA) set to oppose Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano (2-1, 3.04) in tonight’s opener.
The Mets had a five-game winning streak snapped in Sunday night’s 5-4 loss in Philadelphia. Despite the setback, New York has still won eight of its last 11. Meanwhile, the Cubs are on a 6-1 run and come into this one off a three-game home sweep of the Pirates, capped by Sunday’s 13-6 rout. Chicago scored 29 runs in the three-game set and has tallied nine runs or more in four of its last six victories.
New York won five of seven against the Cubs last season and is 12-7 in this rivalry dating back to the 2005 campaign.
After a rough opening outing in Atlanta back on April 5, Maine has delivered two straight outstanding performances, giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 12 2/3 innings in victories over the Phillies and Nationals. However, the right-hander was roughed up by the Cubs twice last season, including a forgettable August start at Wrigley that saw him allow six runs on four hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. He’s 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Chicago.
Both of Zambrano’s wins have come at Wrigley, including Wednesday’s 12-3 victory over the Reds when he allowed two runs on eight hits in seven innings. In his first start of the season against the Astros at home, he gave up two runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win.
Zambrano dominated the Mets twice last season, giving up a total of two runs on eight hits in 13 innings of work. For his career, the big right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA against New York.
New York is on runs of 7-4 on the road, 29-14 against the N.L. Central, 12-2 when Maine starts a series opener and 15-7 when he pitches on the highway. Meanwhile the Cubs are on runs of 7-1 at home and 7-2 against a right-handed starter, but they are just 1-6 in their last seven against the N.L. East, 2-6 in the last eight when Zambrano opens a series and 0-7 when Zambrano starts at Wrigley against a team with a winning mark.
The over 10-1-1 in the past 12 head-to-head meetings overall, 4-0-1 in the last five series clashes in Chicago and 4-0 in Zambrano’s last four starts versus the Mets. The over is also 6-1 in the Cubs’ last seven overall, 9-2 in Zambrano’s last 11 outings against N.L. East competition, 11-4 in the Mets last 15 on the highway, 15-6-1 in the Mets’ last 22 against the N.L. Central and 14-7-1 in the Mets’ last 22 on the road against a right-handed starter.
On the flip side, the under is 5-1 in the New York’s last six overall and 19-7 in Zambrano’s last 27 starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
St. Louis (12-7) at Milwaukee (11-7)
The Brewers return home after a nine-game road trip and send Carlos Villanueva (1-2, 6.19) to the hill to take on the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.78) in the rematch of a pitching matchup that occurred last week in St. Louis.
Milwaukee went 5-4 on its just-concluded road trip, but dropped Sunday’s game in heartbreaking fashion, falling 4-3 in Cincinnati. The Brewers gave up three runs in the bottom of the 10th after scoring two in the top half of the inning to break a 1-1 tie. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for the Brewers.
The Cardinals went just 3-3 in their just-concluded six-game homestand, capped by Sunday’s 8-2 loss to the Giants. That defeat came on the heels of Saturday’s 3-0 setback to San Francisco, giving Tony LaRussa’s squad its first two-game losing skid of the season.
These two teams played a three-game set last week in St. Louis, with the Cardinals taking two of three, giving them a 9-3 edge in head-to-head meetings going back to last season.
Villanueva got rocked in St. Louis on Wednesday, giving up five runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss. In his two home starts, however, Villanueva has allowed six runs on 15 hits in 11 1/3 innings (4.76 ERA), beating the Giants 13-4 but losing to the Reds 4-1. In his lone start against St. Louis last season, the right-hander allowed three runs on five hits in six innings of a 7-3 home defeat.
Wainwright has been tough in two of his three outings, including Wednesday when he beat Villanueva and the Brewers, giving up two runs (one earned) on five hits in 7 2/3 innings. In his lone road start, however, the righty allowed four runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss in San Francisco.
For his career, Wainwright is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA versus the Brewers in 10 appearances (three starts).
The Cardinals are on runs of 17-7 overall, 8-2 against the N.L. Central, 11-5 against a right-handed starter and 8-3 when Wainwright is as an underdog. Meanwhile the Brewers are on streaks of 40-18 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 6-2 at Miller Park and 5-2 when Villanueva starts at home.
The over is 7-3 in the last 10 series clashes, including 5-1 in the last six meetings at Miller Park. The over is also 4-1 in the Cards’ last five on the road, 6-2 in their last eight series openers, 4-1 in Wainwright’s last five outings, 20-9-1 for Milwaukee at home and 8-3-1 for the Brew Crew as a home chalk. However, the under is 5-1 in the Brewers’ last six overall and 7-3 in Villanueva’s 10 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
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