Most profitable plays in baseball
By MATT FARGO
The baseball season is in full swing and Matt Fargo will be examining hot and cold teams and how they can make us some money. This week he takes a look at the hot teams that are providing good value.
Toronto Blue Jays: 14-7 +6.25 Units
The Blue Jays were picked to finish anywhere from third to fifth in the American League East and they have come storming out of the gates. They have led the division since Day 1 and, heading into Tuesday action, are currently tied with the Red Sox.
The fact that Toronto remains tied with Boston even after the Red Sox 11-game winning streak shows how hot the Jays really are. Toronto is currently second in profits at +6.25 units (What are units?), trailing St. Louis who is at +6.75 units. The big difference going forward is that the Blue Jays are still going to be undervalued by the linesmakers.
Toronto has been an underdog in only seven of its 21 games but it has been higher than a -150 favorite only twice. And to no surprise, those were with Roy Halladay on the hill. The last two seasons, the Blue Jays offense was not productive and there were again questions coming in this season.
They have been very potent at the plate, hitting .289 BA while averaging six runs per game, second and third in the majors respectively. Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Scott Rolen are leading the way and if it wasn’t for Alex Rios hitting just .239 with one home run, the offense could be even better.
The pitching staff has an ERA of 4.06, which is higher than its league-leading ERA of 3.49 from a season ago, but the offense has been able to pick up the slack. David Purcey has a 7.01 ERA through five starts, but the Blue Jays have been able to sneak out two one-run wins in his outings.
Most other starters have an ERA of 3.75 or lower. The bullpen, who led the league with a 2.92 ERA last season, remains solid with a 3.38 ERA, fifth in baseball. After the series with Kansas City, the Blue Jays first 10 games in May are against Baltimore, Cleveland, Los Angeles and Oakland so more damage can be done.
St. Louis Cardinals: 14-6 +6.75 Units
I mentioned that the Blue Jays trail only the Cardinals for the most profitable team in baseball. St. Louis is off to a great start and it may be a surprise to some as the schedule has been relatively tough with games against the Mets, Cubs and Diamondbacks.
After winning the World Series in 2006, the Cardinals put together back-to-back disappointing campaigns and they were not picked to do much this season as the Cubs came in the overwhelming favorite in the National League Central.
Whether St. Louis can maintain this play remains to be seen, but it is getting it done right now with an excellent offense and consistent pitching. The Cardinals lead the entire league in hitting at .296 BA while averaging just under six runs per game. They are getting tremendous production out of Yadier Molina, Chris Duncan, Joe Thurston and Colby Rasmus. Albert Pujols is up to his old tricks, hitting .333 with seven home runs and 25 RBI.
It is the pitching that is the most surprising. St. Louis has a 3.77 team ERA which is fourth best in the bigs. This is with Chris Carpenter going down after only two starts and Todd Wellmeyer posting a 6.14 ERA in four starts. Journeymen Kyle Lohse and Joel Pineiro along with steady Adam Wainwright have been extremely solid, posting a combined 9-0 record.
The bullpen is middle of the road with a 4.64 ERA and that could come back to hurt the Cardinals in the long run. The May schedule looks trouble free and with a lot of those easy games on the road, bettors will see decent moneyline numbers with a chance to make more money going forward.