National League Best Bets
By Nelly's Sportsline
Baseball starts this week and it is an appropriate time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. Last years there were some big surprises with the Giants and Rangers making the World Series. Both were expected to be good teams but few saw that type of run coming. Which teams are capable of making a move in 2011? Here is a quick review of the National League and our best bet for team over/under wins in each division.
NL EAST
The Phillies enter the season with an incredible starting rotation coming off a disappointing exit to the postseason last year and this will be the overwhelming favorite to not only win the NL East and the NL, but the World Series. The pitching staff has a lot of miles on it however so injuries could be a factor this season and there are big questions in the bullpen as well as with an aging offense. Atlanta appears to be the only team that can realistically make a run at this division title if veteran starters Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson can be healthy and effective and there is a lot of young talent in the lineup. Atlanta lacks a proven closer but overall the bullpen looks like it is good shape to start the first year of the post Bobby Cox era. Florida should again be a competitive team and the Marlins rotation has a high ceiling with the addition of Javier Vazquez but on offense there is not as much potential as the other teams in this division. The Mets have very little stability in the rotation but in a favorable ballpark the starting pitching may be better than most expect, even if Johan Santana is shelved for much of the season. The Mets have a few big names on offense but not enough potential for consistent production. Washington made a bit of a splash in the off season with a couple of additions but in the health and development of young pitching will make or break or the season. Washington will be competitive and could have its most wins since 2007.
BEST BET - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES UNDER 96.5: The offense is going to have issues with Chase Utley and Domonic Brown already fighting injuries plus the age of Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez is a legitimate concern. The bullpen will likely blow some leads and betting against the extreme is where the value is as Philadelphia's rotation likely runs into more problems than most expect this season, even though this team should win the NL East.
NL CENTRAL
Many saw the Reds as one-year fluke last season, winning the division in a down year for the NL Central. Cincinnati's young offense should again be productive even if Joey Votto does not have a repeat MVP season and the pitching staff for the Reds is more than capable. The Reds will have a full season with Edinson Volquez and among Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Homer Bailey the Reds should find capable #4 & #5 starters. Milwaukee made a lot of noise in the off season but Zack Greinke will start the year on the DL and banking on Chris Narveson and an often injured Shaun Marcum could leave this rotation a bit thin. The bullpen had major issues early last year before coming together behind John Axford and the Brewers will face a lot of pressure with the organization putting some money out for a winner. If things do not go well early don't be surprised if the Brewers ship off some key pieces. St. Louis is still a threat in this division even with Adam Wainwright's major injury. The Cardinals always seem to find a pitcher to step up as Jaime Garcia did last season. Lance Berkman adds a bat in the lineup but whether he can play everyday in the outfield is a concern. The Cubs added Matt Garza to the rotation but the lineup has a less than viable mix of underperforming veterans and unproven young players. Houston could be a bit of a surprise with a better rotation than most people expect. This team will struggle on offense but there is a lot of speed and some upside. The Pirates actually will have an offense that can compete in this division with Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker likely headed for breakout years. Pitching will again be the downfall however and there will be a lot of pressure on a young staff in an offense-oriented ballpark.
BEST BET - CINCINNATI REDS OVER 85.5: The Reds pitching staff is coming under some scrutiny and in that ballpark it will be tough to have lights out numbers but it was an effective staff last season that has enough potential to improve. This looks like the most complete offense in the division and the Reds were one of only four teams in the NL with a winning road record last season despite being considered a team that is built on success at home.
NL WEST
The NL West was very competitive last season with the top four teams all winning at least 80 games. Pitching is paramount in this division and the Giants and Padres should again lead the way with the best starting staffs. San Francisco lost a few key pieces on offense and there was a lot of mileage on this young rotation last season which could come into play this season. The Dodgers may be a surprise team this season as Los Angeles has an underrated pitching staff and the offense has enough talent with a few key additions to be perhaps the best in this division even after a down 2010. Colorado got a career year from Ubaldo Jimenez last season but the Rockies faded late in the season and there may not be enough depth on the staff to last a whole season. The Rockies have a good lineup but Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki may have trouble matching great 2010 seasons. San Diego was a great story last season but the offense without Adrian Gonzalez will take a step back. The Padres signed a lot veteran players cast aside by other clubs and unfortunately there may be good reason that those players were not retained. Arizona looks very young both on the pitching staff and the lineup. It won’t take a lot for the Diamondbacks to improve on the past two seasons but in this tough division it will be tough to make a big move with a four quality teams in the division and the least experienced pitching staff.
BEST BET - COLORADO ROCKIES UNDER 86.5: The Rockies were a better team that the record indicated last season as they lost the final eight games of the season on a horrible late season slide. Overall the rotation will not likely be able to compete in this division. Jimenez had a huge workload last season to deliver a career year and the contributions from Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel may be difficult to replicate. There is not much to fall back on if there is an injury on the starting staff.