NL 1st Half Review
By Kevin Rogers
The first half of the baseball season is finally complete, but not without plenty of highlights and lowlights from inside the National League. The three current division leaders didn't make the postseason last year, while the surging Colorado Rockies are the only playoff club from a season ago that would qualify for play in October if the playoffs started today. The storylines have been shocking to say the least with the success of teams that weren't given a chance to go along with the squads that have underachieved to this point.
Brave New World
Bobby Cox wasn't thrilled with Atlanta's 8-14 start that dropped the Braves to the cellar of the NL East at the end of April. The Braves have tomahawk chopped the competition with a 42-21 run since the beginning of May to take hold of the division. Atlanta has taken care of its home field with a 20-4 mark at Turner Field over the last 24 games. Bettors are thrilled with the 14-1 ledger the Braves own as a home favorite of $1.40 or less, while going 10-2 as home 'chalk' of $1.50 or higher the last 12 games.
The Braves open the second half with a seven-game homestand against the Brewers and Padres, followed by a nine-game road trip at Florida, Washington, and Cincinnati. Atlanta owns a solid 9-4 mark the last 13 games as a road favorite, which will definitely come up in at least four of the first six games on that road swing.
Super Padres
The other team in Southern California has made the most noise with little flair inside the competitive NL West. San Diego's secret is simple, own the league's best pitching staff and let the offense provide enough runs for a victory. With Jake Peavy shipped off to Chicago last summer, there wasn't an ace on the staff. Somehow, the entire rotation banded together with a strong bullpen to own a league-best 3.21 ERA and 12 shutouts. Padres' backers have benefited by banking 16 units overall, with most of the damage coming on the highway. San Diego is 15-12 the last 27 games as a road underdog which doesn't seem overly impressive, but has cashed nine units in this span.
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The Padres didn't end the first half on a good note by dropping four of five, but two of the first three opponents following the break are last-place clubs. San Diego opens up a three-game set with Arizona at Petco Park, then Bud Black's team heads on the road to take on the Braves at Turner Field and the Pirates at PNC Park for six contests.
Simply Red
The league's largest division usually has the fewest teams that have a realistic shot on winning it with the Pirates and Astros struggling. The Cardinals have been up and down while the Brewers and Cubs search for consistency. The club leading the NL Central at the midway point is the surprising Cincinnati Reds. Dusty Baker's team is tops in the National League in runs scored and batting average, despite middle-of-the road numbers for the rotation.
Cincinnati's been through a roller-coaster ride at times this season, which included a five-game skid in April and 1-6 run in mid-June. Nearly half of the Reds' wins have come against their division opponents, as 25 of Cincinnati's 49 victories are versus the division. The Reds are the only profitable team in the NL Central (+7.6 units), while closing the first half on a 16-4-1 run to the 'under' on the road.
Despite getting swept at Philadelphia to wrap up the first half, the Reds play 10 of their first 13 games after the break against Washington, Houston, and Milwaukee. The only problem is the Reds start the second half against the red-hot Rockies.
Rock the Boat
The Colorado Rockies must feel motivated when the summer months hit, because this team never plays its best the first few months of the season. The Rockies could barely bust above the .500 mark despite a superb first half from ace Ubaldo Jimenez, starting the season 20-22. Since May 22, Jim Tracy's team is 29-16, and is not relying only on Jimenez as young hurlers Jason Hammel and Jhoulys Chacin have stepped up over the last five weeks.
The Rockies are 13-3 the last 16 games as a home favorite after Houston stole three of four at Coors Field in mid-June. It hasn't hurt Colorado's efforts by playing 23 of the final 32 games prior to the break at home, making up five games from first-place San Diego in the last week inside the division. The Rockies hit the highway out of the gate for 11 games starting Friday at Cincinnati. Colorado then heads to Florida for four games, while wrapping up the trip in Philadelphia.
North Side Going South
Two seasons ago, the Cubs owned the best record in the National League, but were promptly swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers. Chicago faltered last season with an 83-78 mark, while falling 10 games below .500 at 39-49 heading into the break. Bettors aren't too thrilled either with the Cubs, who are the least profitable team in all of baseball by losing backers over 20 units.
Breaking down the Cubs' season from a betting perspective is extremely simple. Carlos Silva has turned into the ace of this staff with Chicago going 11-5 in his 16 starts. The Cubs are 28-44 with anybody else starting, including a disturbing 3-9 mark against the woeful Pirates. Wrigley Field hasn't been as friendly as many think, with the Cubs going 13-18 (-14.5 units) as a home favorite when Silva doesn't start.
Is there any shot at a rally? The Cubs can improve on their home mark with ten straight contests on the North Side following the break. Chicago welcomes in Philadelphia, Houston, and St. Louis, as the Cubs are a division-worst 15-25 against the NL Central.
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