NL Betting Futures

NL Betting Futures
By Bruce Marshall

After providing our 2010 American League "futures" predictions in our previous issue, it's time for us to do the same for the National League. So, following are our preferred NL 2010 "futures," with season win numbers in parenthesis ( ) courtesy Bodog unless otherwise noted. Our thanks again to TGS baseball consultant Daniel M. Gray for his contributions and observations.

NL EAST: Best recommendation...About the only mention we heard about the Atlanta Braves (85 1/2) throughout the offseason was in regards to long-time manager Bobby Cox's last hurrah, with more speculation on whether the Mets or Marlins (and not Atlanta) could catch the Phils in the East. Cox's swan song will remain a featured storyline throughout the campaign, but we suspect that by August more will be talking about the Braves' likely return to their formerly familiar postseason perch. The lineup is prototypical National League, with plenty of versatility (lots of intriguing left-right combinations) and speed, with enough potential power sources to recall some not-so-long-ago glory days at Turner Field. There are some questions, especially keeping veterans such as 3B Chipper Jones and new 1B Troy Glaus (who has spent most of his career on the opposite end of the diamond at 3B) healthy. But rookie OF sensation Jason Heyward (left) was the talk of the spring at Disney World, and the addition of OF Melky Cabrera from the Yanks gives Cox some flexibility just in case CF Nate McLouth can't adapt to the leadoff role. Meanwhile, the staff could be back to past Cox standards with Tim Hudson apparently fully recovered from his 2008 Tommy John surgery and Derek Lowe having successfully reworked his mechanics, teaming with young rock stars Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson to form perhaps the division's best rotation (though the Marlins might argue). If Billy Wagner can handle the closer's role, they'll be buzzing about the Braves at The Varsity all summer long; look "over" at Turner Field.

Others to watch...Ah, opening day must be just around the corner in D.C.; the cherry blossoms are blooming on the Mall, and the Washington Nationals (70 1/2) aren't yet in last place. But don't worry, normalcy will soon return to the capital, although Nats rookie fireballer Stephen Strasburg has caused such a commotion that some locals on the Hill are even talking more about baseball than the health care debate. No matter, spring developments in Viera have been mostly sobering, with no indications that a recently-ravaged bullpen has shown any improvement, and with RF now a platoon position since problem child and projected starter Elijah Dukes, one of former GM Jim Bowden's notorious reclamation projects, was released on March 17. Defense, the worst in the NL last season, hardly looks any better with the immobile Adam Dunn still at 1B, another platoon situation at 2B, and rookie Ian Desmond at SS. And as usual, the rotation is full of questions, with John Lannan and ex-Rockie Jason Marquis the only semi-dependable looking starters, with eventual help from Strasburg and ex-Yankee Chien Ming-Wang (still recovering from shoulder surgery) not likely to arrive until June at the earliest. The Nats responded somewhat to skipper Jim Riggleman (a modern day Dave Bristol?) after the All-Star break, prompting his interim tag being removed, but improving 11-12 games from last season's 59-103 disaster is asking a bit much. The best thing about the trip to Nationals Park remains the tasty chili smokes at Ben's Chili Bowl down the third base line; look "under" again in D.C.

Although it's not quite the same in the Delaware Valley without Harry Kalas' smooth tones describing the action, this is nonetheless turning into quite a golden era for the Philadelphia Phillies (93 1/2), off of their first-ever back-to-back World Series visits and poised for their fourth straight NL East crown, which would better the mark set by the Larry Bowa-Mike Schmidt-Steve Carlton Phils between 1976-78. Still undeniably strong up the middle with SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Chase Utley, and CF Shane Victorino, Philly is likely formidable once more, but we're not convinced the team has improved much, if any, from a year ago. Effectively swapping aces Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay is probably no better than a wash, and maybe worse if Halladay gets spooked by some of the cheap homers he will undoubtedly allow in the bandbox Citizens Bank Park. There are also some real concerns in the bullpen, where both closer Brad Lidge (off knee and elbow surgery after not being nearly as effective in 2009 as he was in '08) and set-up man J.C. Romero haven't even pitched this spring in Clearwater and are likely to begin the season on the DL. We're also not sure that Cole Hamels is ready to become a co-ace at the top of the rotation with Halladay. In what appears to be an improved NL East, the Phils might have a real battle on their hands just getting back to the postseason. We're looking "under" that 931/2 at CBP.

Sure, the low-budget Florida Marlins (80 1/2) have gotten a lot of bang for their buck the past few years. But low payroll ($37 million last year) or not, manager Fredi Gonzalez enters the campaign on the hot seat after GM Larry Beinfest hinted that he expects nothing less than a playoff berth this season. With the pressure on, it was not terribly comforting to Gonzalez and new pitching coach Randy St. Claire to see projected starting pitchers Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez get consistently roughed up this spring at Jupiter, but the staff is still potentially dominant, with Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco a solid 1-2 combo at the top and recently-acquired ex-Tiger Nate Robertson finally adding a lefty at the back of the rotation. Scouts say they finally noticed CF Cameron Maybin thinking his way through at-bats in spring, which could foretell a breakout year, and with on-base machine LF Chris Coghlan hitting in front of him at the top of the order could give MVP runner-up SS Hanley Ramirez a boat load of RBI opportunities from the number three hole. How a young bullpen without an established closer (Leo Nunez gets the first shot) develops, however, could determine if Gonzalez sticks around beyond the All-Star break, but we think there's enough in Miami to keep the Marlins above .500 as they await their ballpark (with that much-awaited retractable roof!) on the site of the old Orange Bowl in 2012. And if you want a real kick from a baseball trip, we suggest attending the April 30 "Bark at the Park" game vs. the Nationals, where you'll have plenty of canine company (the attendance for last year's similar date vs. the Phils included over 1600 dogs...really!). "Over" at Sun Life Stadium.

Tough to call...Unless you're a Nationals fan, it's hard to imagine a season going as pear-shaped as it did a year ago for the New York Mets (81 1/2), who at least didn't wait until the final week of the season as in 2007 & 2008 to collapse; the Mets were out of the race almost as soon as they broke camp at Port St. Lucie, never adjusting to their spacious new Citi Field home. Four of the top five starting pitchers and almost every key position player also went on the DL at one time or another in '09, and the law of averages alone would suggest that Jerry Manuel's crew has a bit better luck in 2010. Blaming the Mets' power outage in '09 on their big new ballpark would be missing the mark, however; New York was still outhomered 81-49 at Citi Field (where they've lowered the CF fence from 16 to 8 feet, although it's still 408 feet from the plate), and the Mets hit even fewer dingers (just 46 of 'em) on the road. Perhaps the addition of FA OF Jason Bay, a full season of free-swinging RF Jeff Francoeur, and the expected May return from knee surgery for CF Carlos Beltran (who missed half of '09) will add some sock, but keep in mind that even 3B David Wright's power stroke was muffled at the new yard, contributing to his precipitous drop from 29 homers in '08 to just 10 a year ago. The news is a bit better with the staff, where despite the usual questions with starters Oliver Perez and John Maine, at least ace Johan Santana threw pain free in spring after surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, and closer Francisco Rodriguez only lacked opportunities to post big save numbers a year ago. We're not convinced the Mets are a serious contender, but just a bit better luck with injuries should help them at least make a run at .500 and maybe slip into the periphery of the playoff mix. No matter, we'd rather steer clear than make any recommendations at Citi Field.

NL CENTRAL: Best recommendation...We haven't even reached Opening Day and the news is already gloomy for the Houston Astros (74 1/2), now that 1B Lance Berkman is beginning the season on the DL with a nagging knee injury while ace Roy Oswalt is perhaps headed there as well with hamstring problems. If only the Astros' problems ended there. The fact is that Houston in confronted with a potentially-toxic combo of a top-heavy payroll and a barren minor league system, which combined with more injuries coming out of Kissimmee (CF Michael Bourn, rookie SS Tommy Manzella, SP Brett Myers, and RP Alberto Arias in addition to Berkman and Oswalt) makes a already difficult situation even more tricky for new manager Brad Mills, who takes over for the dismissed Cecil Cooper. There is not much depth in the rotation beyond Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, especially with Myers considered damaged goods by his former Philadelphia employer. Moreover, letting FA Jose Valverde walk has opened up all sorts of questions in the bullpen, where new faces Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon have both been unconvincing in previous shots elsewhere in the closer role. And since the Astros were never counting on outslugging the opposition in the first place, the status of Berkman (considered along with LF Carlos Lee as indispensable for this attack) is all the more worrisome. All of the bells and whistles at Minute Maid Park make for a fun visit, but that's about all Astros fans have to look forward to this season; it's an "under" for us in Houston.

Others to watch...Will the real Cincinnati Reds (79 1/2) please stand up? Remember, the Reds were in the middle of the playoff mix a year ago until the All-Star break, when the bottom suddenly dropped out and skipper Dusty Baker's future became a bit clouded before Cincy remarkably righted its ship in September and closed as one of the NL's hottest teams. Many observers suggest the Reds might be a year away from serious contention, and that Baker's penchant for overworking his pitchers might not be the best idea with a mostly-young staff, but Cincy has the potential for a pretty intriguing mix if it stays healthy (which-knock on wood-it did throughout spring in Goodyear) and the pieces fall into place. The defense appears pretty solid with three former Gold Glovers dotting the infield, including new SS Orlando Cabrera, and there's plenty of speed in the OF with either Chris Dickerson or Drew Stubbs in CF and Jay Bruce in RF. There's also hope that having veteran 3B Scott Rolen from the outset will provide some protection in the lineup for 1B Joey Votto and 2B Brandon Phillips. Meanwhile, though much-hyped lefty Cuba defector Ardolis Chapman will open the season in the minors and Edinson Volquez might not return from Tommy John surgery until after the All-Star break, the rotation looks serviceable with vets Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo adding some stability along with the live young arms of Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. It's been a while since venerable play-by-play man Marty Brennaman has been describing a Reds pennant race into September, but this might be the year; look "over" at Great American Ballpark.

Was 2008's wild card season going to be the highlight for this generation of Milwaukee Brewers (80 1/2) ? Maybe so, especially if manager Ken Macha can't find a bit more help for a pitching staff that was shelled mercilessly as last season progressed and even caused OF Ryan Braun to go public with his complaints in the summer. Although spring work in Maryvale was somewhat encouraging, and the addition of journeyman Randy Wolf from the Dodgers has added a bit more stability to the staff, the Brewers' rotation still appears iffy to us, with Macha looking at lots of different options beyond Wolf, Yovani Gallardo, and FA Doug Davis, especially with Jeff Suppan (who tailed off badly a year ago) opening the season on the DL with back problems. Remember, the starters recorded only one complete game last year and posted the NL's worst ERA (5.27), which if repeated has the potential of again wearing out a potentially-solid bullpen led by LaTroy Hawkins and vet closer Trevor Hoffman. Macha is also concerned about free-swingers in the lineup such as new SS Alcides Escobar and CF Carlos Gomez projecting to a sufficient on-base percentage, as well as finding some protection in the order for 1B Prince Fielder (whose expiring contract in 2011 might start to become a distraction at some point this season). It will be good fun as always at Miller Park (for a different ballpark treat, try the fried cheese curds), and Bob Uecker is always worth a listen on the radio, but until we're convinced the pitching has improved, we're looking "under" at Miller Park.

If the New Orleans Saints could win the Super Bowl, why can't the Chicago Cubs (83 1/2) win the World Series? Well, mainly because they're the Cubs. But we get the feeling this might be a year things get interesting at Wrigley Field, especially since it could be the Cubs' last chance for a while, considering an aging lineup and the fact that manager Lou Piniella isn't likely to stick around for a possible rebuilding situation that could begin next year. For the moment, however, the Cubs might be better off simply because of addition by subtraction after sending OF Milton Bradley and his myriad distractions to Seattle. Keeping veterans such as 1B Derrek Lee, 3B Aramis Ramirez, and OFs Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukodome, and newly-acquired Marlon Byrd (all of whom 33 or older by later in the season) healthy and in the lineup should at least keep the Cubbies afloat. And a return to dominance by ace SP Carlos Zambrano could signal that a deep rotation (at the outset minus Ted Lilly, who likely returns in a few weeks after minor shoulder surgery) will be a strength, which might be a necessity with a shaky bullpen that will be counting upon the erratic Carlos Marmol to emerge as the stopper. Bottom line is if the Cubs can stay healthy, they can contend...and did we mention that the Saints won the Super Bowl? Since anything is apparently possible these days, we'll give the "over" a shot at Wrigley Field.

Tough to call...It's been hard enough to be a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates (69 1/2) ever since Stan Belinda gave up that 2-out single to Francisco Cabrera in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 1992 NLCS against the Braves. A North American pro sports-record 17 straight losing seasons have followed. It's also been hard to keep projecting the Pirates "over" in recent seasons and watch them start encouragingly, only to strip the roster by the trade deadline and fade after dealing away seemingly every valuable commodity in the lineup. Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, and Freddie Sanchez and a few others have all been traded by midseason the past couple of years, so we can't be sure what GM Neal Huntington will do with his roster this summer, either. For what it's worth, the Buccos are so low-budget these days (they ended '09 with a $25 million payroll, making the Marlins look like the Yankees by comparison) that we doubt Huntington will be compelled to wheel and deal and purge salary again (what salary?) this summer, but we'll see. Flying far under the radar these days, Pittsburgh nonetheless has a few exciting young components in long-haired outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Lastings Milledge, who project as franchise centerpieces for at least a little while (at least until 2011, we assume), as well as touted rookie OF Jose Tabata, while ex-Twin RF/1B Garrett Jones emerged as one of the NL's pleasant surprises in '09 with 21 homers. Keeping C Ryan Doumit healthy would be a plus, and ballyhooed recent top draft pick 3B Pedro Alvarez might arrive for good by the summer. Still, we're not holding our breath about the pitching staff, especially with new closer Octavio Dotel (in that role for the first time in six years) sidelined for much of spring in Bradenton with a strained ribcage, although young starters Charlie Morton (acquired in the McLouth deal from Atlanta) and Ross Ohlendorf (acquired in the Nady deal with the Yankees) have flashed star potential. In fact, everybody is young in the Pittsburgh mix save Dotel, and with Huntington unlikely to play Monty Hall this summer, maybe, for once, the Pirates make some headway. That's enough to prevent us from a knee-jerk "under" at PNC Park, although we believe a no-call is a better option.

There's a recurring dream for some fans of the St. Louis Cardinals (88 1/2) wherein Matt Holliday catches that line drive in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 2 of the NLDS at Chavez Ravine, the Redbirds win that game and go on to beat the Phillies and take on the Yankees in the World Series. Then they wake up and remember the real-life nightmare when Holiday dropped the ball, closer Ryan Franklin never recovered, and the Dodgers ended up sweeping the series. Holliday will get his chance to make amends after signing a long-term contract, providing some much-needed protection in the batting order for MVP 1B Albert Pujols in a potentially-dynamite 1-2 combo in the middle of the lineup. But we are a bit unsure about the rest of the Cardinal offense that tailed off so badly down the stretch that batting coach Hal McRae was forced to walk the plank by skipper Tony LaRussa, with none other than Mark McGwire hired as his replacement. The only offseason roster addition of note was veteran SP Brad Penny, who joins a very solid staff headlined by the excellent Cris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (2-3 in last year's NL Cy Young balloting behind the Giants' Tim Lincecum), with spring phenom Jamie Garcia a surprise fifth starter heading out of Jupiter. The Cards are still the favorite to win the division, which they can probably take again with less than 90 wins, but unless GM John Mozeliak adds some more offense at the trade deadline (which is possible), we're not sure the Redbirds pull away in the Central. It's a pass for us at Busch Stadium.