NL Central Preview
By Kevin Rogers
The National League Central may be the league's biggest division, but it's been the Cardinals and Cubs who have stayed atop the pack over the last four seasons. The Brewers try to get back to the playoffs, while the Reds, Astros, and Pirates look to make a move up the division ladder.
St. Louis Cardinals
Review: The Redbirds claimed the NL Central title with a 91-71 mark, but that was the worst record of any NL playoff club. St. Louis was swept out of the NLDS against Los Angeles, while scoring just six runs in three losses. There were plenty of positives for Tony LaRussa's club, led by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright's 36 combined victories. Albert Pujols cranked out a National League-best 47 homers to go along with 135 RBI, while mid-season acquisition Matt Holliday provided protection for Pujols with a .353 average in 63 games.
Season Outlook: Holliday is staying put in St. Louis with a seven-year extension signed in December, providing a great 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup with Pujols. The Cards lost Joel Piniero and his 15 wins to the Angels, but veteran Brad Penny was signed in the offseason, giving St. Louis another inning-eater in the rotation. The pitching staff will be strong again with Carpenter and Wainwright at the top, while Ryan Franklin was one of the most consistent closers in the game.
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24), Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63), Kyle Lohse (6-10, 4.74), Brad Penny (11-9, 4.88), Kyle McClellan (4-4, 3.88)
Projected Closer: Ryan Franklin (4-3, 1.92, 38 saves)
Key Acquisitions: P Brad Penny (Giants), SS Felipe Lopez (Brewers)
Key Losses: OF Rick Ankiel (Royals), 3B Mark DeRosa (Giants), 3B Troy Glaus (Braves), SS Khalil Greene (Rangers), P Joel Pineiro (Angels), P Todd Wellemeyer (Giants)
Trends to Watch: The Cardinals played towards the 'under' at home against left-handed starters, finishing 16-7-1 to the 'under.' If the Redbirds faced a southpaw after a right-handed starter at home, the 'under' was cashed 15 of 21 times.
Future Odds: +450 to win NL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Chicago Cubs
Review: The 2009 season was a huge disappointment on the North Side, as the Cubs limped to an 83-78 mark. The pitching staff wasn't to blame as the lineup underachieved. The Cubs finished 12th in the NL in batting average (.255) and 10th in runs (707), while only one player drove in more than 70 runs. The lone offensive pop in the lineup was first baseman Derrek Lee and his 35 homers and 111 RBI. Alfonso Soriano played in 117 games while compiling a pedestrian .242 average and just 20 homers.
The starting rotation had three pitchers rack up at least ten wins, but ace Carlos Zambrano's nine victories was his lowest total since 2002. Ted Lilly and Randy Wells each paced the staff with 12 victories each, while Ryan Dempster led the team with 172 strikeouts. The Cubs were tied for the third-most 'unders' in the NL with 85.
Season Outlook: Chicago's offense needs to return to the form of 2008 when it led the NL in runs with 855. The Milton Bradley experiment is over with the troubled outfielder now in Seattle. The Cubs picked up Marlon Byrd from the Rangers, trying to strengthen the middle of the lineup behind Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Chicago will be back in contention for the division title this season, but Soriano and Zambrano each need to bounce back from down seasons last year.
Projected Rotation: Carlos Zambrano (9-7, 3.77), Ted Lilly (12-9, 3.10), Ryan Dempster (11-9, 3.65), Randy Wells (12-10, 3.05), Tom Gorzelanny (7-3, 5.55)
Projected Closer: Carlos Marmol (2-4, 3.41, 15 saves)
Key Acquistions: OF Marlon Byrd (Rangers), 1B Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks), OF Xavier Nady (Yankees), IF Kevin Millar (Blue Jays)
Key Losses: P Rich Harden (Rangers), P Kevin Gregg (Blue Jays), RF Milton Bradley (Mariners), CF Jim Edmonds (Brewers), P Neal Cotts (Pirates), OF Reed Johnson (Dodgers)
Trends to Watch: Chicago struggled to plate runs against lefties, nailing the 'under' 20 of 32 times. The lack of scoring was more prevalent at Wrigley Field with the Cubs finishing 'under' the total in 12 of 17 games against southpaws at home. However, the Cubs compiled a 10-3 mark on the North Side facing a lefty after a righty starting pitcher.
Future Odds: 8/1 to win NL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Milwaukee Brewers
Review: Following the franchise's first playoff appearance in 26 years in 2008, the Brewers missed October action by finishing 80-82 last season. Milwaukee didn't have the services of CC Sabathia after the lefty signed with the Yankees prior to the 2009 campaign, leaving a huge hole in the Milwaukee rotation. The Brew Crew ranked last in several major pitching categories (ERA, WHIP, and quality starts), causing Milwaukee to stay below .500 for the final two and half months of the season.
The Brewers received plenty of pop from Ryan Braun (32 HR, 114 RBI) and Prince Fielder (46 HR, 141 RBI), placing Milwaukee third in the NL in runs, OBP, and slugging. Rookie third baseman Casey McGahee was a pleasant surprise, batting .301 to go along with 16 homers and 66 RBI. The middle of the infield was a disappointment as second baseman Rickie Weeks tore a tendon in his left wrist in mid-May, while shortstop J.J. Hardy was sent down to the minors after putting up a .229 average.
Season Outlook: Braun and Fielder will continue to put up numbers in the middle of the Brewers' lineup, but Milwaukee needs to get contributions from elsewhere in the lineup. McGahee and Corey Hart will get on base, but no doubt the pitching staff has to step up. Milwaukee helped itself by acquiring a pair of veteran southpaws in Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, both pitchers that can chew up innings. Yovani Gallardo did an admirable job anchoring the staff, while nailing the 'under' in ten of 13 day starts.
Projected Rotation: Yovani Gallardo (13-12, 3.73), Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23), Doug Davis (9-14, 4.12), Jeff Suppan (7-12, 5.29), Manny Parra (11-11, 6.36)
Projected Closer: Trevor Hoffman (3-2, 1.83, 37 saves)
Key Acquisitions: P Randy Wolf (Dodgers), P Doug Davis (Diamondbacks), C Gregg Zaun (Rays), CF Carlos Gomez (Twins), P LaTroy Hawkins (Astros), CF Jim Edmonds (Cubs)
Key Losses: CF Mike Cameron (Red Sox), SS Felipe Lopez (Cardinals), C Jason Kendall (Royals), P Ben Sheets (Athletics), SS J.J. Hardy (Twins)
Trends to Watch: The Brewers batted .270 against left-handed pitching and were a solid 'over' play versus southpaws, hitting it in 25 of 39 games. Milwaukee owned a dreadful 2-7 mark in day games against lefties, but went 11-5 in road night games versus southpaw starters.
Future Odds: 23/1 odds to win NL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Cincinnati Reds
Review: The Big Red Machine had problems plating runs and generating offense, finishing last in the NL in batting average and 11th in the NL in runs scored. Despite the offensive ineptitude at times, the Reds were the most profitable team for bettors in the division last season, racking up nearly four units. Cincinnati wrapped up the season on a solid note, winning 14 of its final 19 games to close at 78-84.
First baseman Joey Votto led the Reds with a .322 average and 25 homers, while second baseman Brandon Phillips drove in a team-high 98 runs. Past Votto and Phillips, the rest of the lineup wasn't productive, including right fielder Jay Bruce and his .223 average. The starting staff didn't have great numbers, but Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto accounted for 26 victories. 2008 All-Star Edinson Volquez was shut down midway through the season with Tommy John Surgery, as the righty will be out until at least July.
Season Outlook: The offense didn't improve much in the offseason, as Cincinnati will play plenty of low-scoring games again this season. Aaron Harang looks to rebound after a disappointing 2009, while rookie southpaw Aroldis Chapman tries to bolster this Reds staff. Cincinnati played well within the division at 46-34, but the offense needs more to compete with St. Louis, Chicago, and Milwaukee.
Projected Rotation: Aaron Harang (6-14, 4.21), Bronson Arroyo (15-13, 3.84), Johnny Cueto (11-11, 4.41), Homer Bailey (8-5, 4.53), Aroldis Chapman (Rookie)
Projected Closer: Francisco Cordero (2-6, 2.16, 39 saves)
Key Acquistions: SS Orlando Cabrera (Twins), IF Aaron Miles (Athletics)
Key Losses: CF Willy Tavares (Athletics), IF Adam Rosales (Athletics)
Trends to Watch: Cincinnati was the top 'under' team in the National League, while putting up 65 'unders' against right-handed starters in 117 games. Arroyo finished 'under' the total in 20 of 30 starts, including 16 of 21 in night starts.
Future Odds: 13/1 odds to win NL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Houston Astros
Review: Since capturing the pennant in 2005, the Astros have gone through three different managers while not winning more than 86 games in any of the last four seasons. Houston started 6-12 out of the gate last season, but managed to climb four games above .500 on July 24. The Astros had a free-fall from there, going 24-42 over the final 66 games to finish at 74-88.
Houston had power outage issues, ranking near the bottom of the NL in runs, OBP, and slugging. The Astros were paced by three players with 25 or more homers (Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Hunter Pence). Shortstop Miguel Tejada led Houston in batting average and doubles, while Michael Bourn wreaked havoc on the basepaths with 61 steals.
Season Outlook: Houston's pitching staff had plenty of issues last season, despite Wandy Rodriguez's 3.02 ERA and 193 strikeouts. Roy Oswalt will try to stay healthy, as the Astros' ace had one win to his credit through the first two months last season. Tejada left Houston to head back to Baltimore, while closer Jose Valverde migrated north to Detroit. Lee, Berkman, and Pence will set the table offensively, but the Astros need Rodriguez to duplicate last year's effort and Oswalt to return to old form to compete for a Wild Card spot.
Projected Rotation: Roy Oswalt (8-6, 4.12), Wandy Rodriguez (14-12, 3.02), Bud Norris (6-3, 4.53), Brett Myers (4-3, 4.84), Brian Moehler (8-12, 5.47)
Projected Closer: Brandon Lyon (6-5, 2.86, 3 saves)
Key Acquisitions: 3B Pedro Feliz (Phillies), P Matt Lindstrom (Marlins)
Key Losses: P Jose Valverde (Tigers), P LaTroy Hawkins (Brewers), SS Miguel Tejada (Orioles)
Trends to Watch: Minute Maid Park was thought to be a launching pad years ago, but now it just depends on what kind of pitcher takes the mound for Houston's opponent. The Astros went 13-3-1 to the 'over' against left-handers at home, but drilled the 'under' 29 of 44 times when facing righties at home. Houston was unreliable coming off a shutout, finishing 4-11, including a 2-9 mark on the road after scoring zero runs in its last game.
Future Odds: 50/1 odds to win NL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Review: The Pirates continue to be one of the most consistent franchises in all of baseball, just not for the right reasons. Pittsburgh has compiled a losing record in each of the last 17 seasons, including 68 wins or fewer in each of the last five years. The Bucs ranked near the bottom of most offensive and pitching categories, while not one hitter batted above .300.
There are always positives to find, even with the Pirates. Rookie Andrew McCutchen was named the team's most valuable player with 12 homers, 9 triples, and 54 RBI. Garrett Jones knocked out 21 homers in just 82 games, while third baseman Andy LaRoche paced the team with 29 doubles and 64 RBI. Former Yankee Ross Ohlendorf had a productive season with 11 victories, while lefty Zach Duke logged 213 innings.
Season Outlook: It's going to be another long season in Western Pennsylvania, but keep an eye on this role for the Pirates. Pittsburgh went 9-3 SU and 8-4 to the 'under' as home underdogs against left-handed starting pitching. The Pirates need to start from the bottom up by improving on their 24-win total against division opponents, but Pittsburgh is staring at another 67-win season.
Projected Rotation: Paul Maholm (8-9, 4.44), Zach Duke (11-16, 4.06), Ross Ohlendorf (11-10, 3.92), Charlie Morton (5-9, 4.55), Kevin Hart (4-9, 5.44)
Projected Closer: Octavio Dotel (3-3, 3.32, 0 saves)
Key Acquisitions: OF Ryan Church (Braves), P Octavio Dotel (White Sox), P Neal Cotts (Cubs)
Key Losses: P Matt Capps (Nationals)
Trends to Watch: The Pirates are a great 'fade' in most spots, going 17-42 on the road against right-handed starters and 5-16 versus southpaws on the highway. The 'under' hit at a nice rate at home against lefties, doing so on 17 of 23 occasions.
Future Odds: 50/1 odds to win NL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
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