NL Central Projections
Nelly's Sportsline
The National League Central is coming off a down year with the Cardinals running away with the division title and underachieving performances from the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros. Making the playoffs from this division has meant a quick exit from the playoffs the last two years but this year there are intriguing storylines among all six clubs. Here is a quick look at the team projections for each team in the NL Central.
Cardinals Forecast: 88.5 WINS - No Play
The Cardinals entered the playoffs last season as the team to beat with a very strong 1-2 punch in the rotation but the postseason stay was very brief as the Dodgers handled the Cardinals with ease. St. Louis resigned Matt Holiday, who provided a great boost to the lineup but the big change in the lineup will be at third base where David Freese is slated to start with just 99 big league at-bats to his credit. The Cardinals also made a late deal with Felipe Lopez and he can be a valuable player at a number of positions. There are major questions for the fifth starting spot with Mitchell Boggs and Jaime Garcia as the top candidates but the rest of the rotation should be in good order, with Brad Penny stepping in as well. Penny pitched well for San Francisco last season but it will be difficult to replace the numbers that Joel Pineiro posted last season. It will also be difficult to expect similar numbers from Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter after both were strong Cy Young contenders. This team is built around Albert Pujols and if he is healthy this is the team to beat in the NL Central.
Cubs Forecast: 83.5 WINS - Under
The Cubs still won 83 games last season for a third consecutive winning season but the expectations were clearly not met. A lot of criticism came on the offense last season but the bullpen is a key problem area that does not appear to have been thoroughly addressed. No one doubts the stuff that Carlos Marmol has, but he has not proven capable in the closer role with far too many walks and additions such as John Grabow may not be enough to shore up the pen. The starting rotation remains solid but Randy Wells and Ted Lilly could have trouble repeating great seasons from a year ago. The fifth spot is also still a question mark with Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva as the top candidates. Marlon Byrd was added to the outfield after the Milton Bradley experiment failed and the rest of the lineup seems to be in tact. All things considered this team will rely on the health and production of the highly paid nucleus of Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. Lee had a great statistical year last season but the trio also combined to miss 154 games.
Brewers Forecast: 80.5 WINS - Under
Milwaukee seems to be just a few pieces away from being a serious contender as the lineup has a couple of superstar bats complimented by some solid talent, but starting pitching will continue to be a problem. Milwaukee gambled with signing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, and both appear to be serious risks with injury history and overachieving numbers from last season. Milwaukee really missed having an ace last season with Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia gone and despite the high expectations Yovani Gallardo has not proved he can assume that role. The lineup for Milwaukee appears solid but this was one of the worst teams in baseball in terms of batting average last season and there could again be big holes in the lineup if Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez can not hold down projected starting spots. Losing Matt Cameron and J.J. Hardy, two great defensive players, can not help the cause either as this could be one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Trevor Hoffman proved to be a great signing last season but the rest of the bullpen still has questions.
Reds Forecast: 79.5 WINS - Over
The Reds continually fall into the category of 'ready to take the next step' but it has not happened in any of the past several seasons. Last season Cincinnati finished the season playing well and reached 78 wins. The outfield will plug in a few unproven players this season and the infield should provide great production with Scott Rolen staying put and a late signing of Orlando Cabrera to join Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. As with most teams battling to break the .500 barrier, pitching is the main issue but with veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and top prospects with some experience in Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey this rotation looks much better than in years past. Cuban signee Aroldis Chapman is the wild card and it will be interesting to see how quickly he can make an impact. If the young outfield can produce and the pitching holds up this will be a wild card contender as the bullpen remains stable and there is as much talent in this lineup as there has been in years.
Astros Forecast: 74.5 WINS - Over
Houston was actually in the playoff race for much of the season before a complete tanking late in the year and new manager Brad Mills will step into a favorable situation. There are some holdover stars on this team and although the overall depth is weak, most would be envious of the middle of the order. Brett Myers joins the rotation but consistency has not been part of his game. Roy Oswalt is coming off a disappointing season but Wandy Rodriguez finally put together a high-quality year after years of teasing. It appears the Astros will roll the dice with rookie Tommy Manzella at shortstop and this team will be inexperienced at catcher as well. The bullpen does not inspire confidence with failed closers Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon likely used in the late innings but the pitching staff should be capable overall. Pedro Feliz was signed and can provide an improvement at the plate from the hot corner and if this team stays healthy there should be a slight improvement in wins.
Pirates Forecast: 69.5 WINS - Under
In past seasons Pittsburgh would trade off a key piece here or there but last season the Pirates finally went all the way and dumped virtually every known player and veteran. This will be a very young squad but several players rose to the challenge last season and produced decent numbers. Pittsburgh should have a solid bullpen and the starting rotation actually does have some promise. Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, and Paul Maholm are capable starters and had respectable numbers last season. The key will be if the youngsters can take advantage of this opportunity after getting their feet wet last year. Few people may watch, but there are some intriguing young talents in the field for this team and the future could be bright if this unit is kept together. This total is set high however and it is tough to trust Pittsburgh to stay reasonably competitive and if needed, this team could dump another key player to a contender as part of the annual re-load.