NL East Projections
Nelly's Sportsline
Philadelphia has turned the National League East title into a World Series trip the last two seasons but the division race has generally been close up until the final weeks. This could be another tightly packed division as the Mets and Nationals could be improved after poor results last season and the Marlins and Braves could be serious contenders. Here are forecasts for the five teams in the NL East.
Phillies Forecast: 92.5 WINS - Under
The NL East was expected to be a competitive division last year but the expected race between the Phillies and Mets was non-existent. Florida and Atlanta hung around but the two-time defending National League champions will enter 2010 as heavy favorites in the division. Roy Halladay is the marquee addition to the team and although he could allow more home runs moving to this park, he has delivered remarkably consistent quality results in his career and now should have ample run support. Long time Tiger Placido Polanco takes over at third base after primarily being a second baseman and counting on the career-year type power numbers that Jason Werth and Raul Ibanez posted last year might be a stretch. No team in the NL can match the offensive potential of this line-up and statistically Cole Hamels is probably in line for a bounce-back season after marginal numbers last year. The back of the rotation is not a source of great confidence but the biggest concern has to be the bullpen, where Brad Lidge was incredibly erratic last season and is coming off off-season elbow surgery. It is hard to go-against this offense but the bullpen could be a crippling issue that does not go away and Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer got to 12-wins with ERAs near 5.00 last season.
Braves Forecast: 85.5 WINS - Under
This season will be a year-long farewell tour for long-time manager Bobby Cox and this number may be a touch inflated due to those circumstances. Atlanta has been an incredibly unprofitable team to back over the last four-years and the Braves do not look like the clear second place option in this division as this number suggests. While year two in Atlanta should be kinder to Derek Lowe, the rest of the rotation could take a step back as Jair Jurrjens likely overachieved last season and Tommy Hanson does not have a large enough body of work to expect a smooth second season. Losing Javier Vazquez will be especially daunting if Tim Hudson can not stay healthy after missing most of last season after major elbow surgery. Billy Wagner assumes the closer role after the bullpen blew 21 saves last season. If Troy Glaus can stay healthy his addition can be beneficial to the players around him as Chipper Jones and Brian McCann could thrive. Production from the corner outfield positions is not a given however and juggling at-bats for Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, and superstar prospect Jason Hayward will not be an easy task. The bullpen also could be a bit thin as well after losing Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano from last season's team, and Wagner has certainly had his share of injury concerns in recent seasons and is now 38.
Mets Forecast: 81.5 WINS - Over
The expectations were sky high for the Mets last season with the new stadium but the team failed miserably with just 70 wins, although the Mets spared fans of the late-season collapses that occurred in '07 and '08. Injuries decimated the lineup last season and already in spring training concerns over Jose Reyes and his health are serious. This lineup still has plenty of productive bats and adding another solid veteran hitter in Jason Bay should help the cause. This may not be a team that hits home runs, especially in this ballpark but the offense should have more consistent production this season. The Mets have actually have a lot of stability in the pitching staff as the top four starters are the same four that started last season on top of the rotation. There is still some uncertainty at catcher which could also impact the pitching staff, although Rod Barajas was signed recently. There are encouraging signs with the starting rotation even with Johan Santana returning from injury as Mike Pelfrey has added a pitch and John Maine and Oliver Perez appear to be ready. The bullpen has a proven closer but his addition proved little use last season as the team did not produce enough save situations. While the Mets clearly still have some issues and have not proven healthy, there is upside on this team and this number is deflated after the awful results last year.
Marlins Forecast: 80.5 WINS - Over
The Marlins have the pitching to compete in this division with Josh Johnson emerging as an all-star last season and Ricky Nolasco due for improved numbers this year and after being a statistical anomaly last season with a high 5.06 ERA despite great numbers in other areas. Between the remaining starters battling for spots there have been enough moments of success to expect the pitching staff will be just fine. Leo Nunez also was an excellent closer last season and the Florida bullpen was certainly a strong point most of the season. What the Marlins need is more production from the outfield. A full season with Chris Coghlan as an established leadoff hitter should help but highly regarded prospect Cameron Maybin needs to prove he is ready after struggling last year. Cody Ross had a solid season last year for Florida but ultimately he and Coghlan need to become more than just complimentary players. Jorge Cantu is likely moving to third base so Gaby Sanchez can be given time at first, and he has impressed this spring. Florida has overachieved each of the last two seasons and could stay relevant again this year as Hanley Ramirez can still carry the team.
Nationals Forecast: 70.5 WINS - No Play
After back-to-back 59-win seasons calling for a 10-game improvement would be a bold prediction. The Nationals were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball last year and had an atrocious bullpen and improving those two areas would probably lead to a dramatic improvement. New manager Jim Riggleman will be focused on improving this team defensively as the starting pitching really was not that bad last year. John Lannan was very solid and he should be aided by the signing of Jason Marquis to be the #1 guy. J.D. Martin was efficient last season and should have a chance at being a regular starter for this team. It will be interesting to see how long Stephen Strasburg remains in the minors and how desperate the Nationals will be for an attendance boost if the team can not stay competitive. Matt Capps brings a veteran presence to the closing role but Capps had plenty of issues last season. Ivan Rodriguez is the big addition on offense and his track record with improving teams is rather remarkable so this pitching staff could benefit. This lineup was very productive in stretches last season but ultimately there are too many questions with this team.