NL West Betting Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
The NL West is, once again, led by the Dodgers and Giants, however the race could become more competitive if the Rockies improve and become contenders. Arizona is still a step behind, while San Diego is perhaps the worst teams in the entire league.
Arizona Diamondbacks (2016: 69-93, -20.41 units, 89-67-6 O/U)
Division odds: +1800
Season win total: 78
Why bet the Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke is a legit ace despite having to pitch his home games in a very hitter friendly ballpark. Paul Goldschmidt hit .297 with 24 home runs and 95 RBI last year and the team has protection around him in the lineup with Jake Lamb and Yasmany Tomas who combined for 60 home runs and 174 RBI last season. The offense as a whole ranked fifth in runs scored in the National League last year.
Why not bet the Diamondbacks: They have a lot of question marks in the rotation with Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley and Taijuan Walker. The closer is Fernando Rodney who is not a long-term answer at 40-years old. The D-Backs ranked 30th in team ERA in 2016 and did not fix their pitching issues in the offseason. Injuries will also be an issue for a team that lacks depth.
Season win total pick: Under 78
Colorado Rockies (2016: 75-87, -8.42 units, 76-82-4 O/U)
Division odds: +1000
Season win total: 80.5
Why bet the Rockies: This offense ranked near the top in several categories last year and they have added Ian Desmond who should be big when he returns from injury. Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez are two of the most underrated young talents in the league. Jon Gray threw 185 strikeouts in just 168 innings last year and should improve with Bud Black as the manager. Greg Holland comes over from Kansas City and will be a boost to this bullpen.
Why not bet the Rockies: The rest of the rotation is very young and unproven. They have yet to find arms that can pitch consistently in the thin air and altitude of Coor's Field. The Rockies' bullpen lacks depth. The team struggles on the road and went just 33-48 away from home last year.
Season win total pick: Over 80.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (2016: 91-71, -6.37 units, 71-84-7 O/U)
Division odds: -200
Season win total: 94.5
Why bet the Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he continues to rack up amazing numbers every season. Kenley Jansen is one of the best closers in the league and he has 180 saves over the past five years. Corey Seager was named Rookie of the Year last season and he should continue to improve with more experience. This team has a winning mindset and is looking for a championship.
Why not bet the Dodgers: Age is an issue here with just three members of the lineup younger than 29-years old which means injuries could become an issue. Rich Hill is 37-years old, while Brandon McCarthy is 34-years old and he had a weak 4.95 ERA in just 10 appearances last year. The top of the bullpen is strong, but there are several arms vying for the opportunity to be the bridge to Pedro Baez and Jansen.
Season win total pick: Under 94.5
San Francisco Giants (2016: 87-75, -7.54 units, 75-82-5 O/U)
Division odds: +230
Season win total: 88
Why bet the Giants: The rotation depth is very good when you have Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto on top of Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija. San Francisco also filled their closer role with Mark Melancon after he pitched for Pittsburgh and Washington in 2016. Melancon had a 1.64 ERA combined for those two teams. The offensive lineup is deep with Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford leading the way.
Why not bet the Giants: Despite a veteran lineup, this team only hit .258 last season. San Francisco was one of the worst power teams with just 130 home runs. This squad is going to play a lot of low-scoring games which will put a strain on their pitchers. Left field is going to be a mix of Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker. The Giants must also compete in a very competitive National League.
Season win total pick: Over 88
San Diego Padres (2016: 68-94, -0.30 units, 80-77-5 O/U)
Division odds: +10000
Season win total: 66.5
Why bet the Padres: San Diego's young pitching staff will benefit from a very pitcher-friendly ballpark at Petco Park. Wil Myers played 157 games last year and had 28 home runs for a lineup that didn't provide a lot of protection. Luis Perdomo has better potential and ability than his 5.71 ERA in 20 starts showed. Carter Capps brings the heat and a very weird delivery that hitters have struggled with in the past.
Why not bet the Padres: This team is openly in sell mode and will probably get rid of their veterans by the trade deadline. Their perceived rotation is filled with washed up veterans and unproven youth. Christian Friedrich is the "ace" and he went 5-12 with a 4.80 ERA in 2016. There is talk of piggybacking starters and having pitchers go just four or five innings instead of deeper into ballgames this year.
Season win total pick: Under 66.5