NL West Projections
Nelly's Sportsline
The National League West should be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball with four teams entering the season with a very realistic shot at contending for a playoff spot. The Dodgers and Rockies were both playoff teams last season and both will enter the season with the highest expectations but the gap with the rest of the division should shrink. Here is a look at the National League West:
Dodgers Forecast: 84.5 WINS - Over
The Dodgers won the division last season but this is expected to be a wide open race this season. The rotation for the Dodgers has some holes with the departure of Randy Wolf and the young pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley faded a bit late in the year. Vicente Padilla pitched well after joining the team last season but Los Angeles is not likely to make a lot of big midseason moves this year given the financial situation of the franchise. The Dodgers still have a very solid offense with the nucleus of budding stars Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and James Loney added with a mix of veterans. The bat of Manny Ramirez and the harnessing of his potential distractions will likely be the key for this team to stay a front-runner in the division. Los Angeles is expected to fall to the pack a bit and will not likely enjoy the incredibly strong start that allowed the team to hold on to a playoff spot despite a late season fade. Still the talent on this team is solid and this projection seems to be a bit of an overreaction as the make-up of the team has not changed that dramatically from a team that won 95-games and a playoff series last season. Look for the Dodgers to stay in the race and still be a serious playoff contender.
Rockies Forecast: 84.5 WINS - No Play
Jim Tracy won Manager of the Year last season after taking over after the season started and leading a great turnaround for the Rockies. Colorado stumbled in the playoffs but this can again be a strong regular season team. The pitching staff lacks stars but the Rockies have found pitchers that can be effective in the difficult Denver environment. If Jeff Francis returns to form the Rockies could have a solid rotation but overall the starting pitching is likely to fall short of the other contenders in this division. Huston Street had plenty of failures last season but seems resilient enough to remain productive leading a bullpen that has decent depth and experience. The departure of Garrett Atkins is the big change in the lineup but Ian Stewart and Melvin Mora should be able to adequately fill that role. A full season with Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup could also pay off for the Rockies as this lineup is filled with talent and is well rounded. Getting to 92 wins again is a stretch but this team still has what it takes to compete and it likely will take less than 90 wins to win the division in 2010 with the Dodgers looking slightly weaker and the division as a whole looking more balanced top to bottom.
Diamondbacks Forecast: 82.5 WINS - Under
Arizona was easily the most disappointing team in baseball last season as the Diamondbacks looked like a contender to start the season. Losing Brandon Webb early certainly hurt and his return to form will determine the fate of this team. Edwin Jackson enters the rotation after a very solid season in Detroit and Ian Kennedy and Billy Buckner will be given the chance to start with the departure of Max Scherzer and Doug Davis last year. The Arizona bullpen could be a strong point but the lineup seems to fall short of the other contenders in this division. The Braves added Kelly Johnson to play second base and Adam LaRoche at first but the lineup still will strike out a lot and scoring runs will be a problem without home runs. Arizona has the makings of a team on the rise after just 70 wins last season and a clear underachievement but the back of the rotation should continue to be a problem area and counting on a Webb return to elite caliber status is a big gamble. This lineup will have some great days but ultimately can ' t match what the Dodgers and Rockies can do.
Giants Forecast: 82.5 WINS - Over
The Giants should again have some of the best pitching in baseball led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain who both had great 2009 seasons. Barry Zito actually had his best season as a Giant last year and few teams can match those top three starters. Although a few nice additions have been made on offense, this should still be one of the weaker hitting teams in baseball. The Giants have the pitching to win a lot of close low scoring games and veterans Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff can help make this a more established offensive team. While most projections call for the Giants to take a step back this looks like the most complete team in the division, as the pitching should be among the best and the lineup has bridged the gap closer to the rest of the division. San Francisco has a great home field edge and there is serious talent lining up for the potential fifth spot in the rotation or a fill-in role if there injuries or the lack of performance from any of the other starters. While expecting Lincecum and Cain to deliver the same numbers is a stretch, Zito and Jonathan Sanchez both could improve and the Giants would have better left-handed pitching than the rest of the division.
Padres Forecast: 71.5 WINS - Under
The Padres won more games than you might have expected last season as San Diego played well late in the year after falling well out of contention early in the season. San Diego must move past the Jake Peavy era and Jon Garland, the only starter signed, probably can ' t fit the bill. The starters in house have potential however as when healthy Chris Young is an all-star caliber pitcher and Kevin Correia had a breakout year in 2009. Clayton Richard pitched extremely well after joining the team in the Peavy deal and Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc showed a lot of promise with Tim Stauffer also as a possible contributor. The offense will face challenges as there were few upgrades in the off-season, with David Eckstein being the big signing. The outfield picture is still quite unclear at this point with few established players fighting for spots this spring. Adrian Gonzalez is still with the team but he may not be by season's end so it is tough to back this team for progress as even a somewhat encouraging start could be marred by the dumping of the few veterans on the team at the trade deadline. Ultimately scoring runs will be a problem for San Diego, that is nothing new, but the rest of the division will make it tough to pick up ground and deliver an improved record.