Odds to win American League West: Can Rangers repeat?
By Doug Upstone
Texas was a surprise World Series participant last season and has nearly all the pieces returning from the American League’s fourth-best offense at 4.85 runs per game. But without Cliff Lee in the rotation, a return trip to the Fall Classic is remote.
Oakland had the league’s lowest ERA in 2010 and an upgraded lineup makes the A’s a contender. The Los Angeles Angels came up empty in free agency and have question marks throughout their roster. Seattle had the worst offense in the junior circuit by 100 total runs and did virtually nothing to improve a miserable situation.
Los Angeles Angels
Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: O/U 83
Odds to win AL West: +263
Biggest loss: OF/DH Hideki Matsui
Biggest addition: LHR Scott Downs
Angels outlook: Remember Angels’ baseball when it featured players on base continually? That style came to an abrupt halt last season. Run production fell 29.6 percent without a true leadoff man and enough hitters on the lineup card that hit for contact and average. Last year was the first time in 49 years the Halos did not have a single regular starter hitting .300 or better. The return of Kendry Morales will help add potency to the batting order and, based on spring training results, manager Mike Scioscia will have to get Mark Trumbo on the scorecard the way he is crushing the ball.
To start the season, Scioscia will pin his hopes on AL West’s best starting staff. Dan Haren and Joel Pineiro placed too much pressure on themselves a season ago and both have expressed a greater comfort level and should fit nicely with ace Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana. If the bullpen becomes settled, it could be a winning campaign.
Season win total pick: Over 83
Oakland Athletics
Last season record: 81-81
Projected season win total: O/U 83.5
Odds to win AL West: +194
Biggest loss: DH Jack Cust
Biggest addition: OF David DeJesus, DH Hideki Matsui
A’s outlook: For the all the love the San Francisco Giants deservedly received, Oakland’s starting pitchers had the lowest ERA (3.47) in the majors in two decades (Boston -1990). General manager Billy Beane sees the similarities with his young studs and is convinced his talented hurlers can match their cross-town rivals’ success, with a bullpen possibly as proficient. Top starter Trevor Cahill permitted right-hand batters to hit only .198 and he has just turned 21 years old. Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez still have ample room to improve according to Cactus League scouts.
Oakland was 11th in runs scored (4.09) per game and next-to-last in home runs in the AL. The additions of Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus and Josh Willingham is an upgrade to a pitiful offense, however, none of these players have been able to stay healthy. Manager Bob Geren understands this team has to hit for a better average, as it will take three hits to score a run most nights.
Season win total pick: Under 83.5
Seattle Mariners
Last season record: 61-101
Projected season win total: O/U 70
Odds to win AL West: +2,314
Biggest loss: 1B Casey Kotchman, 3B Jose Lopez
Biggest addition: C Miguel Olivo, DH Jack Cust
Mariners outlook: Seattle’s past four seasons have been served hot and cold like the coffee the city is known for. The hot years of 2007 and 2009 produced 88 and 85 wins respectively and the cold campaigns of 2008 and 2010 registered a mere 61 victories. The Mariners offense was offensive, registering numbers not seen in the AL in 20 to 30 years. The unusual part is GM Jack Zduriencik did almost nothing to add punch. Designated hitter Jack Cust will strikeout a ton and hit some homers and catcher Migeul Olivo will quickly find out the difference between Safeco Field and Coors Field. New youngsters will dot the roster around Ichiro Suziki.
Felix Hernandez’s talents are being wasted on a club that can’t score and the dropoff from him to the No. 2 and No. 3 starters is like jumping into the Grand Canyon. Dave Aardsma is a reliable closer, however, the bullpen might not give the right-hander too many leads to work with. The biggest positive might be the defensive outfielders’ ability to track down opponents’ swings of the bat.
Season win total pick: Under 70
Texas Rangers
Last season record: 90-72
Projected season win total: O/U 86.5
Odds to win AL West: +125
Biggest loss: DH Vladimir Guerrero
Biggest addition: 3B Adrian Beltre, LHR Arthur Rhodes
Rangers outlook: It was a banner year for the American League champion Texas Rangers, however, with success comes expectations. Texas’ scoring didn’t catch anyone off guard, but the 3.93 ERA (tied for third in AL) brought a collective “wow” from baseball. There is a great deal of consternation if the Rangers starting staff can duplicate last year’s efforts. Colby Lewis was a revelation returning from Japan and former closer C.J. Wilson took over No. 1 spot in the rotation. Tommy Hunter, at 24 years old, was 13-4 with 3.73 ERA. Even the Rangers front office was not positive this trio can manufacture same results and toyed with the idea of making closer Neftali Felix a starter.
The offense is poised to put up solid numbers again, led by Josh Hamilton’s amazing skill set. He needs to stay healthy, as does outfielder Nelson Cruz and second baseman Ian Kinsler. New third baseman Adrian Beltre regained his stroke in Fenway Park last year and will find Rangers Ballpark equally friendly. Texas will try to duplicate last season’s 71-47 record under the lights.
Season win total pick: Over 86.5