Offensive jolt gives MLB bettors a rare opportunity
By JOSH NAGEL
Although it’s unclear whether chicks still dig the long ball, as Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine once famously asserted, there’s no doubt that the long ball is looking chic in its new digs.
Fans of batted baseballs and bettors who fancy games that fly past the total have been particularly fond of the new Yankee Stadium, which quickly is threatening to redefine “hitter-friendly” among Major League Baseball venues.
Powered by an infusion of offense at the residence of Bronx Bombers, MLB totals have seen a notable surge in the early going this season. The over has played 9-3-1 at Yankee Stadium and the Yankees are 18-9-1 against over/under for the season.
Heading into Friday’s action, the American League was sending games over the total at a 54.8-percent clip. This early-season burst might have caught oddsmakers by surprise, but they have worked quickly to plug any leaks in their posted totals.
“The wild card so far has been the new Yankee Stadium. The ball seems to carry everywhere,” said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
“We’ve adjusted on what we’ve seen early. But we need to remember that what we’ve seen really is a small sample,” he said. “However, we have to adjust because we’re not in the business of giving anything away.”
Moreover, Yankees Stadium is far from the sole factor deserving of credit – or blame, depending on your stance – for the high-scoring trend. Some unlikely candidates, such as Dodgers Stadium, where offense has long suffered a slow death, have emerged and contributed to the craze.
The Dodgers have played over at a record of 8-4-2 at home and 15-10-5 overall, contributing to the league-wide clip of 53.6 percent overs, a combined record of 215-186-22 heading into Friday.
Offense has been in vogue at ballparks everywhere, as 20 of the 30 MLB teams are producing runs at a more prolific pace than they did last season. The Toronto Blue Jays are leading the way with their 6.3 runs per game smashing last year’s 4.0 average.
Of course, a natural byproduct of all the bats heating up is that pitching must be flaming out. MLB clubs have watched their earned-run averages soar in harmony with all the scoring, as 21 teams have posted a worse ERA than they had last year. The Cleveland Indians have seen the steepest decline, from 3.72 last year to 5.81 ERA thus far this season.
Oddsmakers such as Sinisi aren’t so concerned with pinpointing the exact cause of the trend as they are with responding to it. To that end, his staff has adjusted by posting numbers that reflect the onslaught of offense. For example, he will now set the number at 8.5 or 9 for Dodgers Stadium, although 7.5 or 8 – or lower – has long been the norm at the Southern California venue.
“I don’t have an explanation … I’m just dealing with what we see, dealing with the reality of the situation,” Sinisi said. “It could be the ball is a little tighter, or pitching is not as good as it has been.
“There are all sorts of theories, but it’s really just a lot of conjecture. You can’t always quantify everything with an explanation; you just have to make adjustments as you see fit.”
Accordingly, professional handicappers have responded by taking advantage of the new totals. The adjusted numbers have spawned value in games involving top-flight starters, according to Covers Expert David Malinsky.
“We tend to like it when extreme things happen,” Malinsky said of the recent bump in offense. “This is because it tends to open up a window of opportunity for us.”
Malinsky noted Wednesday’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks, who sent Jon Garland to the mound, against Padres ace Jake Peavy. The total opened at 7.5, providing a half-run in value, Malinsky said. Arizona won the game 3-1.
“We are seeing lines that are either shaded in our favor, or we’re getting an extra half-run that we aren’t supposed to get,” Malinsky said.
What’s more, the capper noted that while top-tier MLB starters are still dependable, he attributes the scoring increase to a rapid decline in the overall quality of pitching.
“I think what we’re seeing is there are not enough good pitchers to fill out MLB rotations right now,” he said. “The top guys are just as good, but the Nos. 4 and 5 starters appear to be weaker, and the middle relief is weak as well.
“Whatever is happening at the high school and college levels hasn’t been enough to produce quality MLB pitchers.”