Philadelphia Road Warriors
By Judd Hall
There are plenty of adages that people use when talking about baseball. One of the more common that you hear is that a team need just produce a winning record at home and play .500 ball on the road to have a shot at the postseason.
What if the team doesn’t even have a winning record at home…do they still have a chance? Well, if the team in question is the World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies, then yes.
Philadelphia (31-20, +751) currently has the second best record in all of Major League Baseball. That’s to be expected, but the fact that they are just 12-14 at home this is a bit of a surprise.
Phillie fans and bettors surely notice that discrepancy, but don’t care because of how well they’ve done away from Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are sporting the best road record in the game at 19-6. And while the record does have easy meetings against obligatory cellar-dwellers like Colorado or Washington, they held their own against St. Louis and the New York Yankees. The gambling public has been able to take advantage of high scores in those matchups as the ‘over’ is 15-8-2 for the year.
Could Philadelphia’s problems at home just some post-championship jitters? I don’t believe that is the case, but it certainly could be a possibility. The stats lend themselves to that thinking as the Phillies are hitting .250 at home with 118 RBI at home; the Phils have a .284 batting average with 39 more RBI when playing on the road.
The change in venue has affected the sluggers, just not nearly as much as the rest of the team. Off-season pickup Raul Ibanez is hitting .333 at home with eight four-baggers and 23 RBI. On the road, Ibanez is hitting .339 with 11 homers and 29 RBI.
The differential isn’t just with the bats, but with the pitching as well. Philly has a 5.15 earned run average at Citizens Bank Park, whereas they’re boasting a 4.59 ERA away from home.
Philadelphia just finished sweeping the Padres thanks in large part to the play of its bullpen. Over the last five games, the Phillies’ relief staff has an ERA of 3.46. That number is inflated due to San Diego scoring four earned runs on June 2. If you take that number out, Philly’s bullpen has a 0.90 ERA.
The Phillies will need all of those stats to hold up as they get ready four-game set in Los Angeles on this road trip. It won’t be easy as the Dodgers have the best home record at 20-6. Yet, Philly has done pretty well there as evidenced by a 5-2 mark in its last seven games at Dodger Stadium. The ‘over’ is 4-2-1 in that stretch as well.
They’ll close out this 10-game trip with three matches at Citi Field with the Mets. That’s not a bad spot to fade the Phils as they’re only 5-6 over the last two years in New York. Take a look at the ‘under’ here as well since it is 5-4-1 during those fixtures. Not the most impressive numbers in the world, but they should give you a chance to buck the trend against the public.
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