Phillies-Dodgers Preview and Pick
By JON KUIPERIJ
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -125
Pitching
Los Angeles’ starters don't get credited with too many victories, but they always keep their team in the game. Despite the fact no Dodgers hurler won more than 12 games during the regular season, L.A. led the majors with a 3.44 team ERA.
Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland all sported ERAs under 4.00, while Chad Billingsley had an allowance of 4.02. Wolf, Kershaw and Padilla combined to limit the Cardinals to four runs over 17.1 innings in the NLDS.
Philadelphia's rotation has plenty of star power, led by lefties Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Lee snapped out of a late-season slump by posting a 1.10 ERA in two starts against Colorado in the NLDS, but Hamels was knocked around in his only appearance. Rookie J.A. Happ was Philly's third starter against the Rockies and gave up three runs in three innings. Pedro Martinez might also make a start for the Phillies.
While the Dodgers have a slight edge in the starting rotation, they enjoy a huge advantage in the bullpen. Los Angeles was far and away the regular-season leader in bullpen ERA (3.18), while the Phillies were 13th (3.90). Late leads are a lot safer with L.A.'s Jonathan Broxton than Philly's Brad Lidge, though Lidge did record two saves in the NLDS.
Edge: Dodgers
Offense
Though the Dodgers had a higher team batting average than the Phillies during the regular season (.270 to .258), Philadelphia scored 34 more runs. The Phillies do most of their damage with the long ball. Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez all clubbed 30-plus homers, and Howard drove in 141 runs. Philly's offense carried the team in the NLDS, scoring 20 runs and collecting 40 hits in four games. Howard drove in six runs and Ibanez knocked home five.
The L.A. offense scored 13 runs and rapped out 29 hits in three games last round against some pretty good Cardinals pitching. Manny Ramirez, who struggled this season after returning from his 50-game suspension, had three doubles and two RBI in the series, while Rafael Furcal and Andre Ethier each contributed six hits. The Dodgers need more from Russell Martin (1-for-9 last round) and Matt Kemp (2-for-14).
Edge: Phillies
Intangibles
Philadelphia easily defeated the Dodgers in last year's NLCS on the way to winning the World Series. Los Angeles got the better of the Phillies this season, winning four of seven matchups during the regular season.
The Dodgers, who are 52-31 at Chavez Ravine this season, have home-field advantage. That shouldn't faze the Phillies, though, considering they're 50-33 away from Citizens Bank Ballpark this year. Conspiracy theorists might believe Major League Baseball will do whatever it takes to get a Dodgers/Yankees matchup in the World Series.
Edge: Even
Pick: Dodgers in seven
NLCS Preview
By AllStar.com
Game 1 Line: Dodgers -135 / Phillies +125
Game 1 Total: 7 Over -120 / Under +100
Series Price: Dodgers -130 / Phillies +110
Series Format: Best of 7 (2-3-2)
Game 1 Pitchers:
Cole Hamels (PHI) 10-11 / 168 K’s / 4.32 ERA / 1.29 WHIP
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 8-8 / 185 K’s / 2.79 ERA / 1.23 WHIP
For the fifth time in Major League Baseball history the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers will battle it out in the National League Championship Series. The two teams have split the right to represent the National League, with the Dodgers winning in 1977 and 1978 and the Phillies winning in 1983 and last year in 2008.
So here we are 12 months where we left off and the Dodgers and Phillies are at it again. This year some of the match ups have changed. Manny Ramirez isn’t as hot as he was last season but the younger guys, Ethier and Kemp are better than they were a year ago. Andre Ethier went 6-for-12 with five extra-base hits and two home runs in the division series. He hit four walk-off home runs this season (more than Manny or Ted Williams hit in their careers), and Kemp drove in 101 runs.
The World Champion Phillies aren’t as hot as they were a year ago. Cole Hamels has struggled compared to his 2008 season and Brad Lidge, unstoppable in 2008, hasn’t been very dependable in 2009.
Both teams added a key lefty pitcher before the trade deadline. The Phillies picked up 2008 American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and the Dodgers added Orioles’ closer George Sherrill.
The Dodgers bullpen is very good and very deep. In 2009, it ranked first in the majors in ERA, batting average against and WHIP, plus second in wins. Los Angeles’ bullpen is loaded with arms, for both long and short relief. They have former World Series hero Jeff Weaver to go long if needed and lefty Hong-Chi Kuo from the left side. They can shorten the game with left-hander George Sherrill and close the 9th with closer Jonathan Broxton, who throws 100 MPH and was the hardest pitcher in the game to hit (average against was an MLB-low .165). The Dodgers’ bullpen was terrific in the division series against the Cardinals and they hope with the extended their success against the World Champion Phillies. Just like last season the Dodgers are coming off a sweep of the NL Central champs; last year, it was the Cubs, this year, the Cardinals. The Phillies again will be coming off a division series victory in four games; last year, it was the Brewers, this year, the Rockies. Last year, the Phillies beat the Dodgers in five games.
This season, the Dodgers won four of seven games in their season series. It was a low-scoring series, with the losing team scoring three or fewer runs in each game.
Game 1 Pitching Matchup:
The Dodgers will throw young fireballer’ left-hander Clayton Kershaw to neutralize the powerful lefty bats of the Phillies. In 2009, Philadelphia became just the 2nd team in MLB history to have three players (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez with 29 home runs or more in the same season. The Phillies will counter in Game 1 with a south-paw of their own in 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels.The crafty Hamels pitched game one of the NLCS in 2008 and was great in two starts, giving up one earned run in 16 innings against the Dodgers.
Betting Trends:
The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 playoff games
The Phillies are 0-4 in Cole Hamel’s last 4 starts
The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games
The Dodgers are 3-9 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 12 starts
The Phillies are 11-5 in the last 16 games against the Dodgers
The UNDER is 7-1 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 8 starts
NLCS Preview and Predictions
By: Freddy Willis
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Series odds: Dodgers -120
Pitching
As of Tuesday morning the starting pitchers have still not been announced although it looks like Cole Hamels will make the start for the Phillies.
Overall the Dodgers have the advantage as they led the Majors not only in overall ERA, but in Bullpen ERA. On the other hand the Phillies were ranked 7th overall and 13th out of their bullpen. The weaknesses are clear in the bullpen as the Phillies had a lot of questions on who would be closing out games, but those questions have all been answered if you believe Lidges 2 saves were the real deal against the Rockies.
We will likely see Wolf, Padilla, and Kershaw, and possibly Garland or Billingsley if the Dodgers decide to go to a 4 man rotation which is what teams normally do at this point. While the Phillies will go with Hamels, Lee, Happ, Martinez, and possibly Blanton. So we have 5 probable pitchers on each side.
Dodgers SP who might struggle:
Randy Wolf - who will be the ace of the Dodgers once again gave up 6 ER in a home start in June to the Phillies on 6.1 innings and 8 hits. However, the Phillies are hitting just .261 off Wolf and Wolf owns LH hitters which the Phillies have abundance of.
Jon Garland - Phillies are hitting .309 off him and in two starts this year one at home and once on the road he went 11.1 IP giving up 8 ER on 16 hits.
Phillies SP who might struggle:
Joe Blanton Dodgers hitters have a .295 average off Blanton in 129 AB. However, Blanton shut them down in his 1 start vs. the Dodgers as he went 6.1 innings and gave up just 1 ER.
Edge: Dodgers
Hitting
Both of these teams have first ballot hall of famers in the middle of their lineups in Manny Ramirez and Ryan Howard. It can be argued that Utley is also a Hall of Famer. Their are two extreme differences between these teams and that is power vs. average. The Phillies are ranked #21 in average while the Dodgers are in the top 5 at #4 in the majors. Does that mean the Dodgers are the better offensive team? No not necessarily sometimes in these big games what matters is clutch hitting and a home run late in a game.
The Phillies have the edge in the power category as they have 224 HR compared to the Dodgers 145. I think the Dodgers have more power than many believe, but it will come into play in this series. While the Dodgers play small ball the Phillies can blast a 3 run HR for a quick lead. Small ball in my opinion does not always translate into big clutch hitting. If we are talking exclusive clutch hitting you have to give it to the Phillies who came from behind with 2 outs and trailing 4-2 in Game 4 to win 5-4. It was the middle of the lineup that got it done in Howard and Werth.
Edge: Even
Bench
Whenever you have two solid players coming off your bench like Jim Thome or Juan Pierre you have the two ingredients of a bench player that you want. Juan Pierre is a player that can get on base and possibly steal a base. Jim Thome is a guy who can come in a key match up and hit a HR to tie or take the lead. The Phillies on the other hand have Miguel Cairo, Ben Francisco and Matt Stairs none of which should scare the dominant Dodgers pen.
Edge: Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers in 6 games.Look for the Dodgers to take advantage of this series when they go home. The Phillies bullpen will really hurt them in this match up. The Phillies exposed the Rockies weakness vs. LHP and this won't be the case against the Dodgers as the Dodgers hit .270 vs. LHP and RHP, but score +.59 more runs per 9 innings vs. LHP than RHP. Bottom line pitching wins Championships and the Dodgers with their bullpen have the major advantage!
To say that the dodgers and phillies hitting are even is like saying that a Bentley and a ford are evenly matched cars. Just look at the phillies line up compared to the dodgers.
I love the phillies as the dogs here.
The biggest factor in last years series was manny ramirez, I havent seen manny play like that since his last steroid cycle.