Pirate Uprising
By Joe Nelson
The Pirates have been in the news for the wrong reasons of late but there may be some positive coverage this summer as Pittsburgh is off to an unexpectedly strong start. Every season there are a few teams that surprise in April and get off to strong starts despite very low expectations. Many of those teams do not hold up over the course of the year and quickly fade back to .500 or in many cases falling to much worse levels by season’s end. This season there are a few teams that had very low expectations that are playing well right now.
Teams like Toronto, Kansas City, and Florida are off to great starts despite not being projected as serious contenders but those results are not big shocks. The three teams making the biggest waves are teams that were expected to be last place teams and some of the worst teams in baseball. Those teams are Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Seattle as all have winning records at this point in the season and two of the three would make the playoffs if they started today. Seattle and San Diego have some negative warning signs that suggest that the strong starts have been built on good fortune but Pittsburgh actually has consistently performed on the field like one of the better teams in the league.
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Last season at this point in the year there were a few big surprises, Tampa Bay’s surge was somewhat expected but the Rays out-performed even the most optimistic expectations. The Rays were putting up big numbers on offense and getting solid pitching and the hot start did not look like a fluke. Two other teams that had extremely low projections ended up with strong starts to the season as Baltimore and Florida both led their respective divisions at this point in the season in 2008. The Orioles had gone 9-4 at home and 7-2 in one-run games while being out-scored on the year so the eventual fade was not a surprise. Florida stayed in the mix much longer but despite starting 15-10 the Marlins had also been out-scored 114-117 at this point and benefited from six early season one-run wins.
Seattle and San Diego fit similar profiles to the 2008 Marlins and Orioles and a fade in the coming months back to irrelevance would not be a surprise. Seattle is 12-7 and the Mariners benefit from playing in a weak division which could allow them a greater chance to stay in the mix. The Mariners have gone 5-2 in one-run games however and have only out-scored opponents by five runs through 19 games. The Mariners had a great opening week road trip which has given them a head start and the pitching staff has performed well but the offense is unlikely to sustain a high level of play versus many of the other teams in the American League.
San Diego is 5-2 in one-run games and amazingly has been out-scored 85-75 despite the 10-8 record at this point in the season. More impressive is that the Padres have a winning record with ace Jake Peavy struggling considerably. The bullpen has been fairly sharp with closer Heath Bell posting great numbers and starter Chris Young appears close to returning to all-star form but the Padres do not appear to be a team that is going to stay in the playoff race. Add in the potential for shipping out some of the better performers on the team in cost-saving measures San Diego should end up back towards the bottom of the National League, and it could happen sooner rather than later.
The team that has the potential to be a true surprise team this season that can stay in contention seems to be the Pittsburgh Pirates. At 11-7 Pittsburgh appears to have overachieved at first glance but the Pirates are 0-1 in extra-inning games and 1-2 in one-run games so they have not had fluke wins. The Pirates have out-scored opponents 91-58 on the season for one of the largest margins in baseball and 58 runs is by far the fewest runs allowed by any team this season. On this day of 2008 the Pirates had already allowed 154 runs (through 25 games) so the difference has been tremendous.
Since the Pirates were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball and have not had a winning season since 1992 it is no surprise that Pittsburgh is one of the most profitable teams to back so far in 2009. Pittsburgh also leads baseball in several other categories however. The Pirates have allowed the least runs in baseball, allowing just 3.2 runs per game. The Pirates team ERA is 2.97, a half a point less than every other team in baseball and nearly a full point lower than every other NL team. Pittsburgh also has some of the best bullpen numbers in baseball with a 2.85 ERA and going five-for-five in save situations. Opposing hitters are batting just .194 against Pittsburgh relievers, the best mark in the NL. Pittsburgh has been carried by its pitching but the Pirates have the fourth best team batting average in the NL and have above average numbers in most offensive categories as well so this is not a one-dimensional squad.
Paul Maholm was excellent last season and has taken another step this season to emerge as the true ace in the rotation that Pittsburgh has lacked for years. Ian Snell and Zach Duke have both looked significantly sharper this season and Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens have pitched effectively despite having limited expectations at the beginning of the season. If the rotation can stay in tact the Pirates have a legitimate shot at staying competitive. Playing in the NL Central means that there will be many games against teams that have issues and are not expected to be contenders. The Cubs are clear favorites in the NL and St. Louis has looked great early but Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Houston will have big problems getting consistent pitching and the Pirates will have many favorable match-ups against those teams. Pittsburgh’s lineup lacks power but the results have been good enough so far and typical slow-starter Adam LaRoche has changed his tune with a great month of April so far.
The schedule will get tougher for the Pirates but the early signs are encouraging. The Pirates have won two of three road series this season including taking two of three in St. Louis. Pittsburgh has only lost consecutive games once this season and the offense has not been held below three runs in consecutive games this season either. The Pirates have only allowed more than four runs three times through 18 games which gives even an average offense a great chance each night. Key division games will be coming up in May but the Pirates avoid going back out west again until after the All-Star break so things look favorable for the Pirates to stay in the mix for the next several weeks and value should remain exceptional on a starting staff that has been out-performing its reputation.
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