Pitchers bound to break out in the second half
By Shawn Young
This is an exercise to increase winnings in the season’s second half. Finding pitchers with bounce back potential is the best place to begin.
Bettors are looking for value, so don’t expect to see Dan Haren or Zack Greinke on this list. Set your GPS coordinates to bargainville. Give a great big shrug of your shoulders to players with ugly first-half headline stats; if their peripheral numbers are good, yesterday’s sour grapes are tomorrow’s cognac.
Carl Pavano (8-7, 5.13 ERA), Cleveland Indians
Here’s one for you Yankee fans. Interleague play did nothing for this former Expo, but Pavano has had three solid outings in a row since. His 77 strikeouts in 107 innings pitched is something you can hang your hat on. I like the fact he’s only walked 20 in over 100 innings pitched. A K/BB ratio of 77/20 will keep Pavano in games longer. The righty has had two concentrated slumps (started the season slow and didn’t enjoy much success during interleague), so if he has a bad start, skip his turns until he has a dominant outing. Otherwise, bet every opportunity.
Francisco Liriano (4-9, 5.47 ERA), Minnesota Twins
Liriano may never return the form he demonstrated prior to his Tommy John surgery, but he’s bounced back enough to be a serviceable pitcher. Ninety-three strikeouts in 102 IP is a lot to like and 46 walks is satisfactory. This puts the K/BB ratio at slightly over 2.0 and that cut-off line is as good as any if you’re rummaging through the middle of the rotation looking for value. Liriano’s WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) is a little high, but that comes from a solitary slump in late May.
Jorge De La Rosa (6-7, 5.08 ERA), Colorado Rockies
His numbers (95 IP, 98 K, 45 BB) aren’t too impressive outside all those K’s. Humidor or not, it’s always worth comparing Rockies pitchers’ stats at home and away from Coors Field. His home ERA is 6.20 and road ERA is 3.88, which suggests only playing him on the road. But not so fast: His home WHIP and away WHIP are nearly identical. He’s won his last four outings, so he might be a little artificially expensive until he gets shelled once.
Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42 ERA), Minnesota Twins
A second Twin on our list. The important digits (101.1IP, 82 K, 21 BB) are impressive. Even better is the pedigree for the K/BB ratio: 2008 saw 141K, 42 BB; 2007 saw 102 K, 29 BB. A poor April was followed by a good May and a better June. That’s the way we like it. With no significant WHIP splits, he can be bet anywhere, anytime.
Jamie Moyer (7-6, 5.99 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
Moyer isn’t exactly the hottest young prospect and he doesn’t quite have 100-mph heat. To be fair, the last fastball he threw was clocked by a sundial. His WHIP is disconcerting (1.49) but it’s mostly the hits: he’s only walked 25 batters in 94.2 IP. Managers hate walks. The good news here is that he should get run support most times he pitches. If a pitcher isn’t walking batters, the manager will generally leave him in the rotation long enough to be bettable.
Ricky Nolasco (6-7, 5.76 ERA), Florida Marlins
Florida doesn’t really know how to handle this pitcher. That’s a bit of a problem, but we like him anyway. His 90 K and only 21 BB fit the profile of the type of pitcher we’re going after. His 2008 campaign was dynamite: 15-8, ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.10, 186 K, 42 BB. Run support can be a little shaky in Florida, but that’s usually baked into the price. He’s a significantly better pitcher at home so far this season.
Brett Cecil (3-1, 5.40 ERA), Toronto Blue Jays
His K/BB ratio isn’t quite where you want it (33K, 17 BB in 45 IP), but given that he’s a rookie it’s likely close enough. This column needs a “flyer” pick and here he is. Cecil has been up and down and the Jays have had every man from the opening April rotation on the DL already. Cecil has better stuff than anybody on the roster outside of Roy Halladay. He needs to keep his head in the game and try not to overthrow. He’s just about there.