Pitching Preview
By Josh Jacobs
We’ve officially entered the summer time lull in professional sports. As a result, our attention now shifts exclusively to hardball. The season is still a little less then a month away from the halfway mark, and teams in both leagues are bunched up like cattle in their respective divisions.
And so our coverage of the MLB in June continues. In this case its pitchers who have a start on the horizon and whether performances in June thus far gives us an indication of things to come on the next card.
The Good
Dan Haren, Arizona (5-4, 2.20 ERA): The Diamondbacks are 10-games behind its performance at this time one year-ago. But instead of harping on what or what not Arizona has done right it’s all about Dan Haren’s performance in this go-around. Emerging from an ERA spike in May (3.50 versus April’s 1.54), Haren has since locked down the opposition. In three starts this month, the right-handed starter has yet to allow more then one earned run, and eight total hits surrendered speaks volumes. It’s just a shame that the club’s offense continues to slump, especially when it produces 4.1 runs of support per game for Haren. The six-year vet out of Pepperdine will compete against Kansas City in the third and final game of the series on Thursday. The point of emphasis is that Haren has made seven starts this season versus teams with a record under the .500 mark. In these spots, the D-Backs’ slinger is 3-1, giving up 1.9 runs per game and seven strikeouts per outing. Being installed as a favorite 12 of 13 times in '09, you can guess that the price has been steep versus teams with a losing record (a -193 and -155 favorite in just his last two starts).
Brad Bergesen (4-2, 3.79 ERA): The Orioles are once again more miss then hit this season, but Brad Bergesen has made June his month to excel. The 23-year-old from Fairfield, California is coming off a gem of an outing against Atlanta. A complete game to be exact. In that 11-2 victory, the righty tossed 112 pitches, surrendering a stingy two runs off five hits. But how much stock can we put into the two June outings versus Seattle? Despite tossing a shutout on Jun. 9 and another two run showing on Jun. 3 (both against the Mariners), we can’t hide from the fact that this was against a club who’s batting .257 on the season. You might be beginning to see a solid investment here, but before placing that wager bettors must know that Baltimore is a winless 0-4 when Bergesen has taken the mound on the road. This compared to the team’s 6-1 record in his seven home appearances. And let’s be 100-percent honest; Philadelphia, the team that the Os and the starter of interest will face on Saturday, is a world away from Bergesen’s June opponents. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in his last four starts.
The Bad
Mark Buehrle (6-2, 3.43): Prepping for his 14th start of the season on Saturday, Mark Buehrle continues to struggle from the slab. The numbers working against the three time All-Star are lengthy. Some of the figures include surrendering 4.3 runs per game in conjuction with walking eight, failing to take the game past six innings in two of his last three starts and getting smacked for five long balls (all of which have taken place in just June alone). Four no-decisions in his last five scheduled appearances are a result of several factors, one which includes a 4.64 ERA and a .281 BAA on the road this season. The good news from a wagering perspective rests in the fact that the ‘under’ is a red hot, 7-2 in Buehrle’s last nine starts despite the recent 2-0 ‘over’ performance in his last two games. Even after getting 4.8 runs of support per game over the course of the season and 4.3 runs of support per game in June, giving up a familiar, 4.3 RPG (in June) nullifies these facts. Buehrle will be going up against the Reds. Cincinnati is 5-8 in June heading into Tuesday night’s card.
Todd Wellemeyer (5-6, 5.50 ERA): His stats may have taken a turn for the worst but even more disheartening is the decrease in speed on the one time, 96 MPH fastball. In Wellemeyer’s last display on the hill, speed guns clocked the fastball stuck at 90 MPH throughout the contest. While the drop in speed is apparent, Wellemeyer struggled in those six innings against the Marlins, giving up five earned runs and 11 hits. What this did was raise the righty’s June output to a 7.00 ERA with an 0-2 record in 18 innings of work. Wellemeyer will be the first one in this list to make a start come Wednesday. Some problems facing those willing to put money down on St. Louis mid-week against Detroit include the club’s 3-5 record during Wellemeyer’s home appearances. His own 2-5 home record with a .299 BAA and 5.72 ERA including lefties batting .338 all compound the wagering decision. As for the decrease in velocity, most signs point to Wellemeyer's first full year as a starter in '08 after being assigned to the pen for his first four tours in the Majors. It's clear as day that his current duties have taken a toll on the arm.
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