For the next several months I will hopefully add to the winners this forum already provides day in and day out. Enough winners for those following to build a huge bankroll for the upcoming football season. I am looking at 200 units in the next 90 days just in MLB action. Laugh at it, play it, or just ignore it. Consider this an early x-mas present to this forum when it works out.
Since I am new here, all I would like in return is some positivity, whether this turns out over or under the predicted amount. They aren't just picks with a dollar amount, as I will always have a write-up to go along with it most of the time. There will be anywhere from 3-5 plays on most days. This will continue for 3 months watch it for a few weeks to see if it is actually legit, and yes it is straight from me, not a copy of someone else's stuff. It might be called an outrageous claim, but if this works out there will be alot of members with higher balances with their sportsbooks!
Hopefully the forum will enjoy this thread! Thank You!
JUNE 3,2009
$500 Angels/Jays UNDER 9
This game will likely cruise to the under. Last night these teams went over and considering the fact that they have played the under 13 of the last 17, it should make for a great call tonight. Weaver faces Janssen. Weaver has yet to face the Jays in Toronto, but at home he has made a name for himself vs. this club. Toronto has averaged about 3 runs per game when Weaver starts. Janssen is on the verge of making a name for himself after some quality outputs this year. He has allowed 3 ERs in each of his 2 starts with both being 6 innings and 7 innings respectively. In his career he has failed to allow a run to the Angels just yet. In 2 outings back in 2006, he pitched over 15 innings of scoreless baseball. I suspect he will get it done tonight in a 3-1 final.
Welcome theplatinumstandard 🙂
Thanks for contributing
As one newbie to another, welcome. How much is a unit? Also could you share a little bit about your baseball capping history? Thanks and bol.
Yesterday: Angels/Jays Under pushed
Janssen hadn't allowed a run in 2 straight games vs. LA and gets tagged early.
Jesse Carlson had 2 and 1/3 relief vs. LAA previously, no runs allowed. Yesterday, 3 hits 1 Earned. Rolen's error would've been out number two setting up the Figgens K. 6-1 should've been the final but the push stings, it don't hurt.
June 4th
Between the Sox and Dodgers we are looking at a 75% win ratio meaning that we will win 3 of the next 4 of these selections.
$1000 Boston Red Sox -125
Boston is on fire right now, things are clicking, guys are starting to hit and drive in runs and that spells trouble for the AL. Detroit is being outscored and outplayed by Boston. I see this continuing today. Willis had a rough return this year but had 2 solid home starts to follow. He then fell off in his last start allowing 7 ERs. Is this a sign of games to come? I think the Sox will struggle against him a bit but have not faced him since 2006. Willis is not the same pitcher as he was then. Regardless, he will either pitch badly which will lead to a blow-out, or pitch well, but only go 5 innings. That is what my take on this game is. Wakefield has had good numbers vs. Det. Last year he went 13 innings in 2 starts allowing 1 ER, including a shutout. Play the road fave today!
$500 LA Dodgers -105
Looks like the Phills and Dodgers meet yet again. I would not put too much weight on Kershaw in his last two against Philly as he was on the road. He is better at home. Which brings me to Hamels, who has settled down this season, owns LA no matter where they play, but he has a 6+ ERA on the season on the road. The home team in this series last year was 11-2 during the regular season. LA is still serving payback for the playoff loss last year. Both starters have lost 5-3 games this year, in Philly. Look for Kershaw to outduel Hamels for the win tonight.
$300 Indians/Twins Under 9.5
I feel that the best total on the board is right in this game and here is why...Both Carmona and Baker have drastic changes in numbers comparing the Minnesota ballpark to the Cleveland park. Stats are like night and day. Baker in Cleveland, allowed 15 ERs, 28 inngs, last 5 starts. Baker at home vs. Cle, allowed 4 ERs, over 20 inngs, last 3. Carmona at home vs. Min, 13 ERs, 17.33 inngs, last 3. Carmona in Minny, 5 ERs in 22 innings in his last 3 there. Going by those drastic numbers they are both pitching in the right ballpark today. This one may get to 9 runs but should stay under that 9.5 for the win!
Welcome to the forum, thanks for posting plays, and GOOD LUCK!
Thanks Ice...
In case anyone had questions, I will explain in more detail exactly how these selections are to be played. I have a database with 5 MLB angles with 16 sub angles all together. Based off of several years of history and stats, along with all around team statistics.
The highest platform play will read 10 units or $1000. This is the best scenario worth of plays, hitting at a tenth under 70% over the last several seasons. These should bring in half the predicted units. The other ratios equal in the upper 50% - low 60% range, winning mostly with underdogs and totals. These will range anywhere from 1 unit to 6 or 7 units. The 6 and 7 unit plays are very rare and will only be seen once in a blue moon. I am looking at worst case scenario 40-18 on average reamaining for 10 unit plays, and 80-40 for combined remaining sides if this continues to work out.
Totals will be above .500 for this segment and should add to the fund.
If playing for a smaller amount, obviously many will start small if following, I suggest breaking down the listed units to where you feel comfortable. Leave room for at least 3 big days worth of plays. Usually Mon/Tuesdays and Fridays are the biggest days of the week. I wouldn't just let it ride on any given night as it could put you out of playing for good. Best to maybe sit back and watch for a week or even just play the 10 unit ones to start building as they are the most solid.
As for the plays themselves, all totals are usually listed pitchers with most sportsbooks and that is how I usually play them. Sides are always action, regardless of starter, we are playing the team itself in that spot. All listed units are to win that amount. So alot of 10 unit plays will be risking a bit more to win the 10 units.
Four of the angles are based on previous statistics. It gives me a win pct, and units are based off of those numbers. For example: the 10 unit plays hit at roughly 70% consistantly on average over years of research in MLB. The worst angle actually shows an average of 54-44 yearly which isn't much but shows a profit of a near 50 units based on playing 300 pp. The other angle shows an 85-54 mark per season. This also includes some 70% plays.
Sure hope this helped. It is a lot of info but it is needed for those with questions.
Today's plays to follow shortly!
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Current standing: 1.45 units
Units remaining: 198.55
First 4 plays:
Angels/Jays under 9 PUSH
Red Sox -125 Win 10 units
Indians/Twins under 9.5 Loss -3.3 units
LA Dodgers -105 Loss -5.25 units
June 5th
$1000 Detroit -170
LA took 2 of 3 this season at home from Detroit. Look for the Tigers to return the favor. LA has not had an easy time putting win streaks together this season. Streaks of 3 or more games have not happened in about a month, and they have failed on their previous 3 chances. Tigers were embarrassed yesterday pulling Willis early, and will bounce back today despite heavy juice. Ervin Santana has struggled most recently allowing 15 ERs in his last 2 games. He has struggled with Detroit in the past and mind frame wise it may not be a good situation for him tonight. Verlander will counter and he too has struggled at times vs. Angels, but has put together one solid outing after another and looks like the old Verlander from a couple years ago. Need to stay away from Santana right now and I feel this is a great spot for Detroit to get the W.
$1000 Toronto +135
Greinke may just be up for a little letdown after coming off of his worst outing of this season. Greinke only has one loss on the year but his club has lost 3 of the last 5 outings. The Royals are not a good team to bet as they just keep losing. Although Greinke has earned backers decent money there should be no reason to lay money on the road with a team that is struggling. He most likely will not get run support tonight and cost backers more money, even if he pitches well. Romero will oppose Greinke and has struggled against AL east opponents. Outside the division, no problem as he has allowed 4 ERs in 21 innings. Take the Jays as they were once on this downward spiral and have an easier task than they've had of late.
$500 NY Mets +105
Tim Redding is looking at a match-up with his old team tonight. He may just get his chance to have his old team make him look like a superstar when the Nats host the Mets Friday night. Now the Nats are the decade's worst, no doubt, and if you look at their track record as faves and in series game 1's you would steer clear of them regardless what the match-up shows. Nats are 3-7 as faves this season, all home games. The three wins were actually -123 and higher. For the ones in the -110 to -120 range, they are 0-4 as faves. In opening series games this year they are a miserable 4-14. The Mets are 7-1 vs. Wsh in the last 8 meetings, and have won 25 of the last 32 on the road there. Even with a banged up line-up Redding should have enough motivation to defeat Martis, who gave up 6 ERs in his lone meeting with NY, last season. He lasted just 3 inngs. He has allowed 17 ERs in his last 3 starts and 10 ERs in his last 2 at home.
$500 Arizona +105
Look for the motivational edge for Davis as he pitched brilliantly in his last meeting with Gaudin and the Pads. He allowed just 2 ERs but his team lost a 9-7 game at home. Now they are in SD with revenge on their minds with these two starters rematching. Last season Davis shutout SD over 8+ innings. he pitches pretty good in Petco Park. Zona can hit Chad Gaudin. Gaudin has not had two solid outings in a row yet, and looks shaky at times, especially after a good outing. This season after shutting out Colorado over 5 innings he followed up with a 6 ER performance in LA. After a solid home outing vs. SF, he allowed 7 ERs to this same Arizona team. Davis will get the win tonight along with his team as they avenge the previous loss at home, winning in SD tonight.
$500 Orioles/A's Under 8.5
Look for Guthrie and Braden to keep this one under the total of 8.5 runs. The O's are on a downswing after winning 9 in a row. They have lost 4 of their last 5. This losing sstreak will continue tonight but more importantly this one will stay under. Guthrie is 4-4 with a 4.86 ERA while Braden is 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA. Over the last 2 seasons, Guthrie has done well against the A's. He allowed just 5 ERs in 3 previous starts against them. On the road, in Oakland he has averaged 1 ER per 3 innings. Braden has also previously faced the O's, 3 times over the last 2 seasons. They were all 1 ER performances, averaging 6 innings pitched per game. The O's have scored just 2 runs in all those 3 games. Look for a 5 run final here.
$300 Texas +125
Kevin Millwood has a shockingly low ERA as a Rangers starter. A 3.23 to be exact. That's pretty damn good when you think about how many runs Texas and opponents put up especially at home. Penny is 5-1 for the Sox and although his ERA is at a 5.63 he has the best record of any Sox starter right now. The ERA sells the struggle for Penny and it proves the Sox are scoring runs even when everyone thinks they aren't putting up enough. Millwood has been stellar away from home this year as far as innings pitched is concerned. He has gone 7 or more in all of his recent road starts. Look for a home letdown for Boston as the public is riding them. They will likely drop the first of the series. Penny is well overdue for a bad outing as he has not pitched bad in his last 3.
$200 Phills/Dodgers Over 9.5
Moyer will look to get rid of whatever the Dodgers hold over him tonight. Moyer has a 6.75 ERA in 2009 as he watches his career come to an end. He has allowed 15 ERs in his last 4 road starts in just 20 innings. He also has allowed 16 ERs in his last 2 in LA, and 23 ERs in his last 3 vs. LA. Milton comes back with a vengeance after missing the bigs in all of 2008, with 3 strong outings in 09. This will be his first home start for his new club. He has only allowed 5 ERs in 3 starts this year and should pitch as good if not better at home. Milton should continue his dominance, and after getting shut down last night look for the LAD to explode for runs tonight.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Yesterday: 4-3, +3.05 units
Current standing: 4.5 units
Units remaining: 195.5
JUNE 6th
$500 Cleveland/Chisox Over 9.5
Sowers has struggled mightily on the road and previously against the Chisox making this a good play for the over this afternoon. Sowers has a 12.60 ERA on the road this year, allowed 20 ER's in his last 4 road starts, and 18 ERs in his last 4 vs. Chicago. His last 3 of 4 outings vs. Sox were brutal, and I am banking that he will struggle again today. Floyd has started to pitch well but his last 3 vs. Cleveland have gone over the total. This is a rematch from a 9-7 game last season these starters were involved in. Between the starters and bullpens this one should reach double digits today.
$200 Seattle/Minnesota Over 7.5(Bookmaker)
Blackburn and Washburn have both pitched well recently. Both these teams are capable of hitting, and after a low output last night, I expect this one to reach 9 runs in the least. It is very do-able. Each starter should give up 3 a piece, setting up for a few late runs by either one or both clubs. The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Seattle.
$200 Mets/Washington Over 9
Even though the Nats are dead even just about with overs/unders on the season it is really taking a risk playing under the total. Even though both Maine and Lannan have shined at times vs. these line-ups they also have been struggling in this spot. Maine has struggled on the road this year and opponents are averaging 5 runs per game over his last 5 on road. Lannan has struggled in 2 of his last 3 vs. NY allowing 5 ERs in the 2 bad outings. He has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his last 6 vs. NY. The Nats had a strong showing by their bullpen up until the 10th last night and I feel it won't go so smoothly tonight.
$200 Colorado/St. Louis Under 8.5
All signs point to an over in this one with Cook and Wellemeyer slated to start. Usually when a total looks to good to be true it is. The public will jump on the over with this low total but I feel it has a shot at the under tonight. I would assume Cook will go 6 or 7 and Wellemeyer at least 5. Here are some interesting trends that have formed for this games situation tonight. Under is 11-5-1 last 17 mtgs in STL. In Cards last 11 home gms under is 9-2. Wellemeyer is surprisingly 4-0 to the under in his last 4 as fave. Rocks are 12-3-2 to the under in their last 17 as a dog.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Current standing: -8.4 units
Units remaining: 208.2
June 8th
$1000 (10units)St. Louis -120
$100 (ONLY 1 UNIT)Colorado/St. Louis UNDER 9
The Cardinals have looked as bad as they could have over the last few gms vs. Col. Gm 1 was a blowout, and gms 2-3 were shaping up to be good until late inning rallies in both by Colorado. Today needs to be a different story for St. Louis. They will head to the road after today and I feel they will pick up the final home win this afternoon. Thompson could be the very best that Colorado will have faced in this series. He did not allow a run in nearly 7 innings last season vs. Col, in a 3-0 win. He has only made 1 start this year and allowed 2 ERs over 5 inngs. Marquis has had rough spots vs. STL. In his recent 3 starts he allowed 5,1,6,and 3. Look for the Cards to get some runs up today as Colorado will struggle to score in a game that should see 7 runs max.
$200 Arz/SD UNDER 7.5
After yesterdays two game play and over 6 hours, look for these teams to be completely drained tonight in the finale of this 4 game series. Tonight, Garland will face Peavy, and look for both starters to take advantage. Garland shutout SD over 7 innings this season in Petco. He has only allowed 7 ERs in his most recent 5 outings on the road. Peavy has dominated Arizona in the past, allowing only 2 ERs in each of his last 3 vs. Arz at home and 7 ERs in his last 5 home starts against them. He started to look sharp in his 3 previous home starts up until the Phillies game where he allowed 4 ERs. Look for him to bounce back and for both starters to be at their best as they could be playing for a near future new contract. Zona 2-1.
$300 Detroit/Chisox UNDER 10 GAME 2 (Only if game 1 goes over 9.5)
This play is something I base off of a double header result in game 1. Game 2 is slated to be Bonderman vs. Contreras. If game 1 goes over the total of 9.5, then we will have a play on the under in game 2 which is currently set at 10 runs. That number may change by the time we can have the criteria for a play on game 2 or not, so this game 2 will be graded by the closing line at a majority of sportsbooks. Bonderman makes his first start in over a year and has hit unders in his last 4 in Chicago. Contreras should keep the run scoring low enough for the bullpen session late in this one. Sox pen has been pretty dominant of late and I see that continuing in this series. Play under only if game 1 goes over 9.5 runs.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Yesterday: 1-2, -13.20 units
Current standing: -21.6 units
Units remaining: 221.6
JUNE 9th
$500 Seattle +120
Give me Vargas over Bergeson in this ballpark. This is a re-match from last week where Seattle hung on to win 3-2. Vargas has allowed just 7 ERs on the season in 5 starts. Included in that just 3 ERs in 2 road starts this season. Opponents are averaging less than 3 runs per game in Vargas starts. Baltimore has struggled for runs and wins. They are a likely small home fave here, but do not warrant a play. They have struggled. Bergeson has pitched decent. He has a 4.60 ERA at home and has allowed 15 ERs in his last 5 home starts. The total is set at a 9 and up to 9.5, so I assume oddsmakers feel for one starter to get tagged especially after a 3-2 contest last week. Look for Seattle to open this one up at some point and win it by a couple.
$300 LAA/TB UNDER 8
With Shields and Weaver as the starters tonight, I expect minimal scoring in this one. Especially since Shields has pretty much dominated LA at home over the course of his last several starts. LA has managed just a handful of runs in Tampa off Shields and relief so look for LA to struggle tonight. Weaver has allowed just 1 ER in 5 of his last 6 starts in total, 2 of those coming on the road out of 3 games. This one should see 5-6 in total tonight.
Thanks for the plays and writeups theplatinumstandard 😉
Thanks for the plays and writeups theplatinumstandard 😉
Anytime Blade, lets just hope these plays turn around and start winning for a change.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Yesterday: 1-1, -2 units
Current standing: -23.4 units
Units remaining: 223.4
JUNE 10th
$300 NY/Bos OVER 11
The Yanks have failed to get runs on the board vs. Boston this year(45-23 in favor of Bos). Look for the Yanks to finally get runs on the board as this one shapes up to be an ugly one. Wang will face the Sox for the first time in over a year. In his last meeting he allowed 8 ERs as the Yanks won 15-9. Focusing in on Wangs last 10 starts, he has only 2 quality outings. He is not the same guy from the last couple seasons. A total of 51 ERs in those 8 non-quality ones. Wang is in a bad place and after jnot even 12 innings pitched in 4 starts this year, the Sox should have no problem chasing him early. Wake has been shaky vs. NY in the past and in his last 3 starts this year. Look for a bundle in this one tonight as one of these teams should reach double digits alone.
$200 ChC/Hou UNDER 8.5
This is without a doubt a should be winner tonight as Zambrano faces Wandy Rod in Houston. Big Z has put a hurting on opponents this season, as he has only allowed 10 ERs in his last 5 on the road. In Houston he is averaging 7 innings per game over his last 5 there, and just 12 ERs. In early April he allowed just 1 ER over 6 innings in Houston. Wandy can hurl too, especially when the Cubbies pay a visit. In his most recent 3 starts vs. Chicago at home, he allowed 1 ER in each, with the Cubs managing 4 total runs. Wandy has gone under in 6 of his last 8 vs. Chi and at home 5-0 under last 5 mtgs. Big Z is 8-2 to the under last 10 vs. Hou, and 4-1 under last 5 in Houston. Should see 5 runs max.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Yesterday: 1-1, -2 units
Current standing: -23.6 units
Units remaining: 223.6
Stats should read .6 not. 4 as in previous post above.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Yesterday: 1-0-1, +2 units
Current standing: -21.6 units
Units remaining: 221.6
JUNE 11th
$1000 Milwaukee -175
The Rockies will only win this one with a great outing by Cook. The Rocks are 1-4 when Cook allows 3 ERs or more on the road this season and 0-5 when he allows 4+ runs in a game. Cook has not rebounded after an impressive start. Recently, he allowed 4 ERs in 2 games following a 1ER performance and a 0 ER outing. His last start he allowed just 1 ER, so look for this pattern to continue. Brew have managed 4 runs in each of Cooks last 2 out there. Gallardo will oppose, and he has been a home workhorse this season. He is 3-1 at home with a 2.87 ERA. He has only allowed 26 ERs in his last 26+ innings at home. He did allow 11 ERs in Colorado in 2007, but has upped his game since then. Brew by at least a couple, 4-2.
$1000 Texas -155
The Jays came into this series just 11-17 on road, and after 2 wins in Texas they will hit a wall in Millwood tonight. Millwood has dominated at home as a Texas starter, which is surprising considering runs are put up there. Millwood has not faced the Jays in a home game since 2005. Earlier this year he allowed 4 ERs in 7 inngs on the road. He is 3-1(2.59) at home this season. A steady diet of 2 ERs allowed in 4 of his last 5 at home. Look for that to continue. He has averaged roughly 7 inngs per start at home. Texas is also 3-1 at home last 4 games Mill has started. Romero should not be too much of an issue as he has struggled recently allowing 5 ERs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Texas will outscore Jays and have the new and improved bullpen that will seal the deal!
$200 SF/Arizona OVER 9
Here is my take on this one: Sanchez has allowed 21 ERs last 5 on road. Only 1 of those 4 were quality outings. His last 3 in Arizona he allowed 12 ERs. This season 6 ERs in Arizona. He is coming off of a 0 ER performance vs. D-Backs so look for a letdown start here, as there is alot of weight on this total based on that last start. Scherzer will go for Zona, and he too has struggled. He allowed 1 ER in SF but at home this year allowed 4 ERs. He has allowed 18 ERs in his last 4 at home, and opponents have totaled 27 runs in those 4 games. The over is 8-2 in Zonas last 10 at home, and they have gone over in 6 straight. Starters have not been cutting it lately and the bullpen has not done much better. This one should see 11 runs.
End date/deadline: 8/31/09
The Standard: 200 units by the deadline
Yesterday: 1-2, -9.7 units
Current standing: -34.1 units
Units remaining: 234.1
June 12th
$1000 Milwaukee -140
These 10 unit selections are just 3-3 over the last 6, and I am banking on a live one here with the Brew to take care of the slumping Sox. The Brewers got shafted at home by MLBs hottest team currently, the Rockies. They will bounce-back today at home and Jeff Suppan is due for a strong outing. Sox are just 3-8 in their last 11 games and have been outscored almost by a 5-3 margin over that span. They also have not followed a win since early this month. Both pens are pretty evenly matched, but as far as starters go, it is Suppan with the better ERA. Richard has struggled along with the Sox in their slump. He didnt even get to complete the 5th inning in his last outing. Look for this to have an effect on tonights game as that type of performance wont cut it!
$500 Yankees -215
The Yanks couldnt ask for a better match-up for tonight after losing an 8th straight vs. Boston this year. The Mets were stomped on late last night and that will continue this evening. The Yankees will bounce back after the loss to the Sox, especially after letting last nights game get away. Livan Hernandez is what the Yanks doctor ordered for tonight as he has allowed 12 ERs in his last 2 outings vs. NY. I expect Tex, and A-Rod to have a field day against him. Since May 8th, the Yankees are 9-0 in games after a loss, not including Boston series. Yanks will win tonight as Joba will cruise in his first mtg with Mets. Mets have managed just 44 runs total in their last 4 series, 12 games. That is less than 4 RPG and they will need more than 1.5 times that to win tonight. Just dont see it!
$300 Philly +115/Under 9.5
Joe Blanton does not mind facing Boston and should in fact pitch well tonight. Lester goes for Boston and he also has had success in Philly. Lester has not had much success on the road this season though so keep an eye on that. I look for Philly to put up a few this time vs. Lester as he shut them out last season. Blanton has allowed just 8 ERs in his last 3 vs. Boston, and has looked sharp most recently. Blanton has only allowed 4 ERs in his last 3 starts and looks like a streaking pitcher to keep an eye on. I see both starters having good outings keeping this one under the total. Phills are coming off an emotional high after their big win in extras last night. Sox have only scored 5 runs in their 2 gms after finishing with the Yanks. Philly wins, 4-3.
$100 LAD/Texas Under 10
Padilla has struggled at times this season but has also looked sharp in several games recently. Over his last 6 outings he has only had one real bad one(at NYY). Besides that game he has allowed 9 ERs in the other 5. Out of those 5 games, 4 of them have gone under. I expect the Dodgers to get a few runs, maybe 4 off Padilla. Kuroda is the bigger story in this game. He has been stunning in his return after missing a good 2 months. He looks like he has not lost anything and is back to form. Since his return, he allowed 2 ERs, both at home. He has not pitched on the road since early April, but I still feel he will give innings and allow limited run scoring. All 3 of his outings went under this season. Tonight I would expect some offense but the pens and starters keep this one under 10 runs.
$100 Oakland/San Fran Under 7
The final of a 6 play evening capped off with Mazzaro and Lincecum, which should be a dandy. Vin Mazzaro has yet to allow a run and has held opponents to a limited amount of hits. Usually you see new faces pitch well in the third game after the first two were golden outings. This is another one of those situations. Lincecum did not allow a run last season in Oakland and after looking shaky early in the season has settled in nicely, only allowing 5 ERs over his last 4 outings. He is catching fire and should keep this one under along with Mazzaro. Look for 4-5 in this contest.