Playoff Pulse
By Joe Nelson
The MLB playoff field is virtually set and the odds on a World Series champion wager may be better now than when the playoffs actually start. In recent years the overwhelming favorite has rarely been the winner of the Fall Classic so it is worth taking a look at some of futures odds and considering which teams may have some value.
Philadelphia Phillies - 2/1
The Phillies are again overwhelming favorites given the brilliant pitching staff and a fairly unthreatening path in the National League. This is a very average hitting team however, batting .254 for the season while hitting only 135 home runs. Either of Philadelphia’s first round opponents Arizona or Milwaukee has scored more runs on the season and there will be some questions with how the pitching staff will be handled. There are five viable starting options but obviously Philadelphia will not need five starters and it remains to be seen if the team will attempt to use someone like Roy Oswalt or Vance Worley in the bullpen in the playoffs. How they handle John Mayberry and Raul Ibanez is also another interesting question and in a short series it will be tough to maximize the potential of the team. Milwaukee and Atlanta both have starting rotations that can hang with the Phillies and both may have more reliable closing options as well. At 2/1 there is certainly no value in taking the Phillies as they showed last year anything can happen in a short series if a team gets hot.
Boston Red Sox - 7/2
The Red Sox have been sinking in the AL East standings and the injury to Josh Beckett certainly could be a problematic blow to the team. Still Boston has the strongest odds in the American League. The Red Sox are the top hitting team in baseball at .280 but New York has scored more runs while allowing fewer runs despite the perception that New York’s pitching is vulnerable. Boston has very average bullpen numbers for the season including a 23-17 record in games decided by the bullpen and while Jonathan Papelbon has done his part the Red Sox have converted just 33 saves on the year as they have not played a great deal of close games. In the playoffs those type of blowout wins will be much less likely and right now it looks like the Red Sox will be on the road for the first series possibly going against Justin Verlander or C.J. Wilson in game 1, which will not be an easy situation. Boston is definitely a threat to win it all but the pitching staff looks a bit less reliable than hoped for and in the playoffs pitching is certainly critical.
New York Yankees - 5/1
The Yankees are the most popular team in baseball by a mile but this team may actually be undervalued. New York is the highest scoring team in baseball and they have hit the most home runs in baseball by a wide margin. The pitching staff seems to be a question mark but C.C. Sabathia will start many of the key games and he has shown an ability to make starts on short rest in past playoff series. The offense is also always going to be capable of bailing the team out even if they get a marginal starting effort. Everyone is quick to criticize A.J. Burnett but they probably won’t need him in the playoffs as Ivan Nova has been very capable in the starting role and Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon seem to still have something in the tank. Phil Hughes has also been very good in a few of his starts as well though he has been hit-or-miss lately. The big edge that the Yankees have is the bullpen, featuring the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League and only twelve losses by relievers all season, the fewest in baseball. New York appears on track to win the division and have a home field edge until the World Series should they get there so it is surprising that New York is not among the overwhelming favorites and there could be value playing the Yankees now as the odds could certainly drop as they get more attention.
Milwaukee Brewers - 13/2
The Brewers have been a fun story and with an amazing record since the All Star break few teams are playing better. Milwaukee has not played a lot of top flight competition as the NL Central has been a really weak division this season and the Brewers have cleaned up with a 45-25 in division record. Milwaukee was just 6-9 in interleague play including going 1-5 versus Boston and New York and the Brewers are also 3-5 against the Braves and 3-4 against Arizona so few of the wins in the overall record have been high quality. Milwaukee has a good starting rotation but no starter has been dominant and the bullpen lacks left-handed options though presumably Chris Narveson or Randy Wolf could be used in relief in the playoffs. Milwaukee has been a dominant home team but even with better play of late the overall road record is ugly. Milwaukee has a quality team on both sides of the ball and will not be an easy out in the postseason but ultimately the chances of a first ever title for the Brewers is probably less likely than these odds suggest as the number is set low due to the great recent run and the big money that Brewer backers have made in the last two months.
Atlanta Braves - 9/1
The Braves are perhaps the least interesting of the playoff teams but they are a viable threat. Only four teams in baseball currently have a better record than the Braves and Atlanta has a huge advantage in the National League in that they will not have to play Philadelphia in the wild card round. Atlanta quietly has a strong road record at 38-31 and only Philadelphia and San Francisco have allowed fewer runs in the National League. Atlanta has a high quality starting rotation and the pitching staff has a lot of playoff experience, unlike Milwaukee or Arizona. Atlanta currently has the best bullpen ERA of any team that will make the playoffs as rookie Craig Kimbrel has been dominant and there are several high quality late innings options. The offense has less punch than all of the other playoff contenders but the Braves have hit 156 home runs and while strikeouts can be common this is a team that quietly is finding ways to win and can be very tough to beat in close games. Atlanta won’t be favored in the wild card round if they face the Brewers but that may not be accurate and there is some value on a pitching oriented team that quietly enters the playoffs as San Francisco showed last season.
Texas Rangers - 10/1
The defending American League champions will have to go through one of the AL East powers in the first round but the Rangers have the offensive potential to win in a slugfest with either squad. The Rangers have the second best team batting average in baseball and they will get games in the humid heat in Arlington which can be a big advantage. Texas has the most risk wagering this far away from the playoffs as there is a legitimate chance that the Angels catch the Rangers in the standings. Only New York, Philadelphia, and Boston have better run differentials for the season and Texas is the third highest scoring team in baseball. Texas has the worst bullpen among the playoff-bound teams but the unit performed well in the playoffs last year and the struggles of the bullpen are somewhat a reflection of the lack of depth in the starting rotation. After C.J. Wilson there are few proven options as Matt Harrison and Derek Holland can be inconsistent and Alexi Ogando seems to be running out of gas. Colby Lewis is veteran option and Scott Feldman could work his way back in the mix with a strong final month. In reality the back of the rotation is no worse than what the Yankees, Tigers, or Red Sox are offering so that weakness should not be a great concern. With that said the battle in the AL West could get tight down the stretch and the Rangers may be the only team that enters the playoffs with a less than ideal rotation lined up given that they may need to win in the final week. Texas does not have a lot of value at this point as last year’s run will be hard to replicate.
Detroit Tigers - 12/1
The Tigers surprised the Yankees in the wild card round the last time they were in the playoffs and they could get that opportunity again. Detroit could actually pass the AL West leader in the coming weeks so Comerica Park could host the wild card winner and Detroit will be a tough match-up in game 1 with likely Cy Young winner Justin Verlander on the mound. Detroit does not have a great bullpen and the rest of the rotation has been hit-or-miss with Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer but Doug Fister has really pitched well since joining the team and he could move into a key role on this team in a short series. Porcello and Scherzer are not capable of giving you great starts every week but they have the potential to deliver one great start in a series and that is all the Tigers may need to move on. Detroit’s offense has great numbers and may be undervalued a bit given that Comerica Park is a clear pitcher’s park. The Tigers are batting .274 on the season, third best in baseball and the lineup takes a great deal of walks. Detroit also seems to have a lot of late season momentum and with Jim Leyland on the bench Detroit could be a team that makes one of those special runs as they have the stars and storylines to make a fitting end. The odds were better a few weeks ago on the Tigers but this is still a team that can be worth a look for a big potential payday.
Arizona Diamondbacks - 15/1
Arizona will be the team that is quickly dismissed as a World Series contender as most are shocked that this is a .500 team, let alone a team that is 20-games above .500 and running away from last year’s World Series champion in the NL West. Arizona most likely will have to play Philadelphia in the first round which means these odds could even be steeper but passing Milwaukee is still certainly a possibility. Getting caught by the Giants is also still a risk although it has not looked likely in the last few weeks. Arizona is a very tough home team and the offense is much better than anyone realizes. Arizona has scored more runs than any of the other NL playoff teams and while the team average is just .250 the Diamondbacks have a lot of extra-base hits in a home stadium that is favorable to batters. The pitching staff has also come together to deliver remarkable results especially considering the difficulty of pitching at Chase Field. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson form a near elite top two for the staff and Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter are both capable of delivering a strong outing when needed. The Arizona bullpen does not have great overall numbers but J.J. Putz has solidified the back end and Collmenter could be very effective if he is moved back to a relief role for a short series. Arizona should not be discounted but ultimately given the road faced in the playoffs it will be hard see this team winning three consecutive series as healthy underdogs and the odds do present enough value to make a case.
Los Angeles Angels - 30/1
The Angels obviously have nice payout at the current odds and should Los Angeles make the playoffs they will be a dangerous team with a starting pitching 1-2-3 that would be the best in the American League. The chance of the Angels making the playoffs appears to slim however as the Angels have a more difficult schedule than the Rangers ahead with a series against the Yankees and a long road trip. The Angels do have the final series at home against Texas so there is a chance but at this point it would be worth waiting until the Angels make the playoffs and then taking the Angels as only slightly less substantial underdogs entering the postseason.