Poor Start Value
By: Joe Nelson
The White Sox started 1-4 in the first five starts for Jake Peavy and his numbers were mostly awful. Peavy rebounded with a brilliant start Monday night against Kansas City however and he should be a viable pitcher for Chicago in most situations even though he is now away from the pitching friendly confines of Petco Park. There are several others veteran pitchers that have been big money losers in the first month of the season but that should not make them an automatic go-against pitcher in the coming weeks. On the contrary there can be great value on pitchers that get off to slow starts and then return to form with undervalued pricing. Here are a few examples of pitchers that may be worth a look in the coming weeks even through the early season numbers are poor.
Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals
The Royals are 0-5 in Meche starts this season and his 9.89 ERA certainly is troubling. While Meche has never been a dominant starter, he delivered consistently solid results from 2005 to 2008 including an ERA below 4.00 in each of his first two years in Kansas City. He never seemed fully healthy last year and the results were indicative of that, eventually being shut down in late August. It will probably be take some time for Meche to get on track so the slow start is not unexpected. His last two starts have actually featured a slight improvement even though the final lines have been disappointing. Meche was strong through four innings in his last two starts before running into trouble in the fifth inning and his endurance should improve in the coming weeks. With the terrible statistics Meche is likely to be heavy underdog in most match-ups and the Royals have been hitting well enough to justify backing this team in certain situations. Teammate Zack Greinke could also be on this list as the Royals are 1-5 in his first six starts but the 2009 Cy Young winner will still be given line respect and there will likely be little value on Greinke even though some wins are likely to come his way.
Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are 1-4 in Gorzelanny starts in 2010 but the former Pittsburgh left-hander has pitched well. His 30-31 career record looks fairly impressive considering most of his starts came for bad Pittsburgh teams and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season. The Cubs finally gave Gorzelanny some support in his win over Arizona last weekend after scoring just seven runs in the first four games that he started. Gorzelanny has 27 strikeouts and just ten walks this season and while the Cubs are often overvalued, the early season losses should keep the prices in check. Gorzelanny has only allowed one home run all season and that came in a windy game at Wrigley so he could really emerge as a quality starter in this rotation while being a cheaper option when backing the Cubs compared with Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, or Randy Wells. Chicago's offense appears to be back on track and this is a team that should still be considered a playoff threat.
Oliver Perez, New York Mets
Perez is generally as inconsistent as it gets but so far this year has pitched effectively despite the Mets being 1-4 in his starts. Perez has a poor reputation so he will often be an underdog but so far this year he has a solid 4.05 ERA and his walks have not been overly damaging. Perez has allowed just one home run in nearly 27 innings of work and his two road starts were his best outings of the season. After awful results in 2009, Perez appears to be on track for a season similar to 2007 and 2008 when he was a reliable option in the New York rotation. The Mets feature a great bullpen which should help seal up wins more often down the line. New York relievers have taken just five losses on the year, three of those decisions happened to be in games that Perez started. Opponents are hitting just .214 against the New York bullpen so Perez is likely to get better results down the road if he can continue to keep his team in games as he has so far this year.
David Bush, Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee has endured a very inconsistent season on offense but the Brewers should eventually average out as an above average scoring team. That should mean an improved record from the 10-15 mark early in May. The Brewers have only been out-scored by ten runs despite being five games below .500 so this is a team that could move up in the coming weeks. Pitching has been a big problem for Milwaukee so far this season but Dave Bush should not be lumped into that area of blame. Through his career Bush has mainly posted very respectable albeit average numbers. His 2009 numbers finished poorly as he never got back on track last season after missing nearly two months due to injury. Bush was an excellent pitcher early in 2009, featuring a quality start in seven of his first eight outings however so the potential is there. The Brewers are 1-4 in his starts this season and one outing was a poor one, but the other four starts have been solid to very good. Bush has allowed seven home runs this season but four came in his one bad start and outside of that game he has put Milwaukee in a position to win. The bullpen has blown two of his outings and he has actually posted great numbers away from home with a 2.25 ERA. Bush will often be priced as underdog and could be a much better value when taking Milwaukee compared with more proven options like Randy Wolf or Yovani Gallardo.