Premium Service Plays Summary 8/9/2009

Premier Cappers
Record on Posted Plays
13 Wins & 8 Losses ( 61.9 % Posted Plays )

8/9
Premier Cappers ( 1-0 )
Houston ML for 3 units at Even
I feel we have a bad line in this game today and I am going to back the better pitcher with a team that has been streaky in Houston today. We have a struggling Gallardo on the hill today he gave up 9 ER to the Dodgers his last time out and last time against Houston he gave up 6 ER. Wandy Rodriguez has quietly been the best pitcher on Houston and in his last 6 games he has not given up more than 1 ER in those starts. We are getting Houston in a good spot as well after a loss yesterday and with the Brewers having one of the worst day records in MLB we are in a good spot.

8/8
premier cappers ( 0-1 )
LAA and Texas Over 9 –115 for 4 units
Just like Friday I believe we are getting another great spot for an over with both of these teams. Weaver last 9 games have gone over the total with him giving up on average 4.5 runs in his last 7 overall. Millwood is coming off the DL and has not pitched in over 10 days and I see him being rusty and that is a bad sign against an Angels team whom has been on fire. Millwood last 3 starts against the Angels it has not gone as good for him giving up 9 runs and 4 runs with both games flying over the total. Weaver last 2 games against Texas both as well flew over the total as well. The Angels are on a run 22-5-1 as a home favorite and 41-14-4 last 69 games 41 have gone over. The Over is also 5-1 in their last 6 match ups together. I believe we are getting a good value on names alone but looking at the numbers I believe 9 is way two low for both of these teams.

8/7
premier cappers ( 0-1 )
Toronto RL +125 for 3 units
The home team has dominated this series with Toronto and Baltimore with 8 of 9 going to the home team. The Pitching match up in this game is Romero (10-4 3.53 ERA) vs. Berken (1-9 6.93 ERA). I have been fading this Berken rookie for a while now he has been pitching bad and losing his games by an average of 3.5 runs a game. Romero has been the opposite for Toronto. His team has won 8 out of his last 10 starts and the important factor they are winning by more than a 2 run average in his starts. Baltimore has struggled on the road this season being 17-37 away from home and with Baltimore being 1-11 in Berken’s starts I see this as a great spot for Toronto. Baltimore is 1-5 last 6 starts vs. a left handed pitcher. Baltimore is 3-14 in their last 17 game 1 of a series and being 17-50 against the AL East their last 67 games. Toronto has not been playing great ball either but they are coming 11-5 their last 16 as favorites of –150 to –200. Baltimore is hitting .221 on the road against left handed pitchers and I see them taking advantage of a poor road team in Baltimore.

8/6
premier cappers ( 1-0 )
Texas ML –113 (WSEX) for 3 units
Texas is looking to avoid the 4 games sweep today in Oakland. The Pitching match up today is Hunter (3-2 2.63 ERA) vs. Cahill (6-10 5.01 ERA). Hunter is coming off his worst outing since being called up this season with him giving up 4 ER to Seattle but in his last 5 starts before that he had not given up more than 2 ER with under a 2 ERA. Cahill for Oakland has been struggling giving up 12 ER in his last 2 games with his team being 2-5 in his last 7 starts. If Texas expects to stay in the playoff hunt they are going to have to win games against Oakland this season and looking to avoid a 4 game sweep today I see their bats showing up today for a statement game.

8/4
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
Florida RL –110 for 4 units
Florida has a big edge in this game against Washington Nationals being 9-0 this season against them and they are in the midst of a wild card chase. This team is coming off of a day of rest while the Nationals had to play against the Pirates last night so Florida should be the more rested team in this game. Florida will put Josh Johnson on the hill and he has been the ace of the staff by far this year. Johnson is 10-2 on the year with a 2.87 ERA and has faced Washington 3 times already this season and his team won all 3 games by more than 2 runs. Washington will counter with rookie pitcher Martin and this kid did not impress at all in his last start giving up 5 ER to the Brewers and 5 ER to the Mets in his 2 true starts this year. Florida is 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games overall. The Marlins are 14-3 when Johnson is a favorite and 21-5 when Johnson pitches against the NL East. Washington is 1-5 in their last 6 as underdogs at home and with a winning percentage for the year of under 30% I see this as a big pitching mismatch and with a easy Florida win today.

8/3
Premier Capper
No Entry

8/2
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
Braves -120 3 units

8/1
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Tampa RL –125 for 4 units
Tampa has dominated KC this season being 7-0 against them this season and being 20-6 in their last 26 home games against them. The Pitching matchup today is Chen (0-5 6.39 ERA) vs. Niemann (9-5 3.81 ERA). The Rays are 13-5 when Niemann starts his games and are averaging wins by 3 runs a game in his starts. Niemann already faced KC at home this year going 9 innings and only giving up 2 hits. Chen in his 5 losses have lost all on RL. KC struggles come in many ways bad pitching, no run support, bad bullpen. On the road they are even worse being 17-30 away and 1-10 in their last 11 games against right handed starters. Tampa 13-3 in Niemann last 16 starts and are really good at home being 90-37 in their last 127 home games which is a great winning percentage. Tampa is 32-17 at home this season and are averaging over 5.5 runs a game. I see a big advantage all around for Tampa today.

Part 2

7/31
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Twins and Angels Over 10 runs for 4 units –105
I will say this every time when we bet an over is that we need two struggling pitchers in a good spot to do it and I feel that we have that today in Minnesota. The starting pitching in this game is Santana (3-6 7.29 ERA) vs. Blackburn (8-5 3.82 ERA). Both pitchers just faced their opposing team last week in LA. Santana and Blackburn gave up 6 runs in 3.2 innings pitched. In Blackburn’s last 3 starts he has given up 17 runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Santana has been worse only having 2 quality starts in his last 9 games and giving up 5 ER or more in 7 outings. The Angels are 11-0 to the Over in their last 11 games against the AL Central and they are on a 23-6-1 run to the Over against a right handed starters. The Over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 starts against right handed starters. With two struggling starters on the hill and with the Angels scoring runs at over 7 runs a game their last 10 games themselves I see a big advantage to the Over today.

7/30
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
Brewers RL –125 for 3 units
The Pitching matchup today is Gallardo (9-7 3.09 ERA) vs. Martin (0-1 7.50 ERA). This is a big pitching mismatch today for the Brewers with their ace going against a rookie that has only pitched 6 innings so far this year and getting hit hard against the injured Mets for 5 runs in 4 innings. The Brewers finally ended their bad run yesterday and they have been playing there worst ball of the season since after the all-star break. Now Washington is still only 12-36 away from home this season and are a league worst 37 games under .500 for the year. Looking at this matchup we are getting an all-star type of pitcher vs. a rookie and if the Brewers are wanting to stay in contention for their division games like these for a series split against the worst team in MLB are a must. The good thing we have going for us is that Washington has never seen Gallardo pitch before and I think he will take advantage of that today against them. Lets hope that the Brewers can put up runs today and we should have no problem with the RL. Washington is 15 games under .500 on the RL for the year and I believe we are getting the Brewers in a good spot today.

7/29
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Dodgers and Cards Under 8 –115 for 4 units (Bookmaker)
Looking at this pitching matchup I just don’t know of a better under bet this season I have made the way Pineiro and Kershaw have been pitching. Pineiro (9-9 2.95 ERA) and Kershaw (9-9 2.95 ERA) have been lights out this season for each team. Kershaw last 10 games he has only given up 3 runs two times and in the other 8 games have held opponents to 2 runs or less. Pineiro last 6 games 5 of them of gone under the total with him giving up 7 ER in that span. The Under is 8-1 in the Cardinals last 9 games as a favorite and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall. Runs will be hard to come by in this game and I think both teams need this win with the Dodgers losing 4 of their last 5 games and Cardinals having a half game lead in the NL Central. This is a big game for both teams and with two hot pitchers on the mound I just can’t see many runs here. The Cardinals have struggled against left handed pitching this season while the Dodgers are not hitting the ball as well and that is a good combo for an under in this game.

7/28
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
New York Yankees ML –137 for 4 units (Best Bet)
Tampa has been struggling recently while the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now. Tampa has done very bad against lefties as of late getting no hit by Buerhle and then getting dominated by two lefties in Toronto. Now they are getting in my opinion on of the better left handed starters in the AL win CC Sabathia whom is (10-6 3.67 ERA). The Yankees have been the opposite of the Rays doing very well against left handed starters hitting .290 at a team and .306 away from home this year. Kazmir will be taking the mound for Tampa and his struggles are plenty losing velocity on his fast ball and his breaking balls being straighter is the reason for his struggles. Kazmir is 4-6 for the year with a 6.69 ERA and he struggled against the teams that have hit lefties well this season giving up 5 runs to the White Sox, 7 runs to Toronto, 7 runs to Oakland, 7 runs to Cleveland, 6 runs to Baltimore and 8 runs to the Twins. Those where the games that he got destroyed in and in only 2 starts this year he has given up less than 3 runs. Kazmir had pitched even worse at home being 1-3 with a 9.50 ERA. When the Yankees gave CC all that money these are the big games that he was brought to the Yankees for and I see his stepping up his game today and doing well. The Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 road games and 41-17 their last 58 games as a favorite. The Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 game in Tampa and trust me when I say there are always a lot of Yankees fans that go to these game being a 40% share in Tampa. I believe we are getting a good price and a great spot for the Yankees today to continue their dominance winning 10 out of their last 11 games overall.

7/27
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
Twins and White Sox Over 9 runs for 4 units –120
Betting Overs has been complicated this year but what I always say is that you need two struggling pitchers on the mound and a good spot for an over. Today I believe I found that situation in the Twins and White Sox. The Pitching matchup today is Perkins (5-6 5.55 ERA) vs. Danks (8-6 3.98 ERA). Perkins has really struggled this season and especially his last 3 games giving up 16 runs in 10.1 innings pitched. Against the White Sox in the last 2 years he is averaging 5 innings giving up 4 runs a game. Danks last two games he has not looked as sharp giving up 7 ER in 10.2 innings pitched. In his two starts against the Twins this season he has given up 4 runs in 5.2 innings pitched in both games with both totals ending at 10 and 11. Perkins one game against the White Sox this year he gave up 5 ER in 4.1 innings pitched with 15 runs as the final score. Both teams have hit lefties well as of late and with the last 5 meeting between these two teams going over the total and the Over being 4-0 in Minnesota I see this as a good spot for an over. The Twins have hit lefties well at home being 24-6 in their last 30 games at home. The White Sox are 6-0 last 6 road games against left handed pitching and 10-1 in their last 11 overall. With the last 3 games in Minnesota both teams scored 20, 15, and 10 so I see this as a good spot for an over today with it at 9 runs.

7/26
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
Seattle and Cleveland Under 8.5 at –115 for 4 units
I believe we are getting a good spot for an Under today with both the first games going over with Cleveland getting the Over by them selves. The Pitching matchup today is Cliff Lee (6-9 3.17 ERA) vs. Vargas (3-3 3.82 ERA). We Cliff Lee that is 20-7-3 to the under in his last 30 starts on Sunday games. Vargas has never faced the Indians before and I believe that will help him today even though he has not started in 3 weeks. Lee has had very good success vs. the Mariners in the past with an ERA of under 3. Lee has had 9 quality starts out of his last 10 games. Seattle is 6-1 to the under on Sunday games their last 7. The Under is 10-2-1 against the AL Central their last 13 games overall. The Under is 39-16-2 in their last 57 games which is almost 70% rate. Now the Under for the Indians on Sundays are 45-11-3 in their last 59 games overall. I believe we are getting a good spot for a very low scoring game today in Seattle witch games at home only average 7.87 runs this year.

7/25
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Boston RL –110 for 4 units
Boston has many advantages over Baltimore and they have been struggling since the all-star break and Baltimore is the team that Boston needed to see at home with them winning their last 10 games at home against them and 7 of 8 this season. On top of all of this we are getting the better pitcher in Lester on this hill whom is 8-7 this season with 3.87 ERA but has been pitching his best all season his last 9 games having 9 quality starts in a row. He is also 2-0 against Baltimore this season going 14 innings giving 0 runs. Guthrie will be on the hill for Baltimore today and he is 7-8 with a 5.12 ERA and is 3-4 with a 6.34 ERA on the road. In his only meeting against Boston this season he gave up 8 runs in 4.2 innings pitched. A couple of trends to consider is Boston is 32-14 at home this season while Baltimore is 15-33 away from home. Baltimore is 6-28 their last 34 games against Boston in Boston dating back a few seasons. With Boston hitting .277 against right handed starters at home and Baltimore is hitting .217 away from home against lefty starters. I think Boston is going to build momentum in this game and they have the better pitching from top to bottom in this game and if Boston can put some runs for support we will win this game with no problem today.

7/24
Premier Capper ( 0-1 )
Phillies –130 for 3 units
I rarely play back to back on teams but I believe we are getting the Phillies in a good spot today because of the travel schedule of the Cardinals and many other factors in this game. The Phillies are the hottest team in MLB winning 15 out of their last 17 games and 12-1 last 13 games as a home favorite. The Phillies are also 8-1 their last 9 games against right handed starters. They are also 6-2 in Happ last 8 games at home. The Cardinals have been struggling as of late and have really struggled against left handed starters. The Cardinals are 0-4 last 4 games as a road dog. They are 2-8 last 10 games vs. a lefty starter and being 1-5 last 6 starts on the road against a lefty starter. The Cardinals are 0-4 their last 4 meetings against the Phillies and are 0-2 against they losing both games at home by an average of 4 runs a game. Both starting pitchers have been pitching lights out. Pineiro (8-9 3.09 ERA) vs. Happ (7-0 2.68 ERA) is the pitching matchup. Pineiro last 3 games against Arizona, Brewers and Cincy he gave up 5 runs in 23 innings pitched. Happ last 3 games he has given up 4 runs in 21 innings pitched. The key factor for this game is going to be run support and with St. Louis only averaging .222 average against lefties this season and being 2-8 SU their last 10 games against lefties I believe we are getting the better team that can generate the offense to win today. The Cardinals are only 4-6 their last 10 games overall and 2-5 SU their last 7 road games. The Phillies are 13-5 against the NL Central this year so far while the Cards are only 11-8 against the NL East.

7/23
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Phillies RL –120 for 4 units
Looking at this matchup today we are getting the Phillies in a good spot after a rare loss to the Cubs. This team has been streaking to say the least winning 9 out of their last 10 games and 14-2 their last 16 games overall. San Diego has been the polar opposite due to injuries and an offense that can’t generate any runs. They just came off a home stand going 1-6 averaging only 2 runs a contest. Overall they have won 3 out of their last 19 games in which they are in a free fall. San Diego is only hitting .230 average as a team for the year which is dead last in MLB. The pitching matchup in this game is Cole Hamels (5-5 4.72 ERA) vs. Correia (6-7 4.42 ERA). Hamels has had a very slow start and has been very shakey this season for the Phillies after coming off injuries earlier in the season but he has been more than respectable ERA at home being 3-2 with 3.92 ERA. Correia on the Road is 3-4 with a 4.47 ERA. To make things even better for us San Diego is 13-32 away from home this season and 0-7 their last 7 games against the NL East. The Phillies are 14-2 their last 16 games as a home favorite and being 18-4 in Hammels starts against a team with a losing record at home. With the Phillies winning on the RL in SD their last 3 games I feel there is not going to be a problem for them today.

7/22
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Toronto ML –145 for 3 units
Today I believe we are getting Toronto in a good spot to get a win against a bad Cleveland Indians ball club whom is 8-21 their last 29 games overall. The Indians are 17-29 away from home this season while Toronto is 7 games over .500 at home. Ricky Romero (7-4 3.25 ERA) will be taking the hill against Carl Pavano (8-7 5.13 ERA) of Cleveland. Pavano has not started since July 11th which is 11 days off between starts. I believe this is going to effect his control today against Toronto who is coming off a 2-1 loss yesterday. Romero just got done pitching against 3 AL East teams in which he struggled some but I believe we are getting him in a good spot today after pitching against stiffer competition than Cleveland. Romero is 5-2 at home with a 2.91 ERA and Pavano is 5-4 away 4.50 ERA. Cleveland is 2-8 in their last 10 games as road underdogs. We are also getting a big home umpire today that is 20-7 for the home team his last 27 games he has called. I see this as a good spot for Toronto team that is 18-10 against the AL Central with Cleveland being a respectable 13-14 against the AL East.

7/21
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Dodgers RL +105 for 4 units
Today we are getting a Dodgers team that has dominated Cincinnati in years past winning 8 out of 9 since last season and being 21-5 their last 26 meetings. Cincinnati has been struggling being 4-9 their last 13 games overall and are having problems scoring runs. The Dodgers are a league best 31-15 at home this season while Cincinnati is a respectable 4 games under .500 on the road. Cincy is 3-9 their last 12 games as an underdog, 1-5 their last 6 games on the road, 5-16 in Homer Baileys last 21 starts, 1-8 last 9 in Baileys last 9 starts as an underdog. The Dodgers are 7-2 last 9 games against righties. The Dodgers are 11-3 in Wolfs games as a home favorite and being 14-6 at home in the same situation. Wolf has pitched well in his career against Cincy and I see this as another win for the Dodgers today in their continued domination of Cincy.

7/20
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
White Sox ML at Even for 4 units
The White Sox are revenging their playoff loss last year to the Rays in their first home game against them since then. The White Sox took 3 out of 4 games in Tampa earlier this season and they should have won both if their bullpen did not blow the one game. The Pitching matchup in this game is Floyd (7-6 4.44 ERA) vs. Price (3-3 4.70 ERA). Floyd is 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA at home this season and in his one game he pitched against the Rays he gave up 2 ER in 6 innings pitched. Price is 0-2 his last 2 games on the road getting shelled for 11 runs in 8.1 innings pitched in Colorado and in Texas. The Rays are coming off a 3 game sweep of the lowly KC team in which they came from behind to win all 3 of those games. I don’t see that happening with the White Sox pen whom is one of the top bullpens in the AL this year. I believe we are getting some good value on the home team today in the White Sox to win this game.

7/19
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Florida and Phillies Under 9 –105 for 4 units-
The starting pitching and the umpire in the game in Florida has me playing the under on a day game Sunday. Phillies will be sending Happ to the mound and since becoming a starter he is 6-0 2.90 ERA in which also Florida has never faced him as a starter before. Florida will be starting Miller (3-4 4.50 ERA) and he has been a polar opposite pitcher home and away at home he has been impressive 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA. Miller has faced the Phillies once this season holding them to 2 ER in 6 innings 4 runs total that game ended up with 8 runs. The ump that will be starting this game is the biggest under ump in MLB this season being 14-5 to the under with just under 8 runs a game. I see this as a good game for an under and a good spot as well.

7/18
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Dodgers RL +110 for 4 units-
Well the Dodgers have lost their first two games of the series and I believe that is going to provide some motivation for them to win and win big today. The Pitching matchup in this game is Kershaw (7-5 3.16 ERA) vs. Hampton (5-6 4.52 ERA). Kershaw has been lights out this season and has had 10 quality starts his last 10 games and in his last 6 games he has given up 3 ER in 35.2 innings. Hampton has been hot and cold all season long and pretty much when he does not start against Pittsburgh he has been terrible. He gave up 5 runs to Washington his last game and I believe he has faced a lot of easy competition. Kershaw did struggle his last game against Houston having his worst outing this season. But that was in Houston in April and Kershaw will be looking to pitch a gem today. The Dodgers are still 13 games over .500 at home this season and I think that they will show up today.

7/17
Premier Capper ( 1-0 )
Texas and Twins Under 11 runs –115 for 4 units
Texas has been money to the under this season at home after years of having only mediocre pitching they finally look to have a good season with their crew. The Under has gone 27-16 this season in Texas winning at 63% rate this season so far. On the mound today for the Twins is Perkins (4-5 4.71 ERA) vs. Padilla (7-4 4.53 ERA). Both pitchers are a combined 18-10 to the under this season. Perkins went 12.1 innings pitched against Texas last season giving up only 2 ER in 2 games pitched. Padilla had 3 games against the Twins and 2 of those he went 16 innings pitched giving up 0 ER while in his other game he gave up 3 ER in 5 innings. Both pitchers have historically done good against there opposing team today. The Under is 21-7 as a road underdog for the Twins last 30 games. The Under is 14-3 as a home favorite for Texas and the Under is 10-1 as a favorite of –110 to –150. The Under is also 21-7 against a lefty starter and the under is 6-0 in Padilla last 6 starts overall. In the past meeting with these two teams the games have gone 8-2 to the over last year but with two improved pitching crews I see value in a good spot for an under today in Texas.

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