Profiting From Base Hits
By Doug Upstone
While going thru Bill James 2010 Gold Mine book, came across statistical information that only baseball nuts would enjoy.
Part of James wisdom is taking something simple and applying it in common sense manner. For example if you score more runs than your opponent you will win 100 percent of the time. Pretty straight forward.
The article went on to talk above the value of base hits. No discussion of home runs, doubles, walks or even on-base percentage, just hitting the ball where the fielder cannot catch it.
Last season if you take away the all games that each team had the same number of hits in a ballgame; the final record was 1,766-433, a winning percentage of .803 for the club with more base hits in a single contest.
The light bulb switch went on in my dome and I started to wonder how this plays out for wagering purposes.
Pulled out all 30 teams home games (no reason to road contests since it's the same) and looked to see what kind of profits are to be found in this fact-finding mission.
The most obvious aspect uncovered is there is a lot of money to be made by correctly determining the team that will have the higher amount of hits.
In the National League, teams with most base knocks are 105-34, 75.5 percent this season (thru 4-27). This generates a profit of +70.05 units. It goes without saying nobody is going to wager on every baseball game every day, still not many systems of any kind are going to yield these sorts of profits looking at each contest. How this ends up being such a money-maker is of the 105 wins, 37 were underdogs, help building the bankroll.
In the American League, the news is even better despite fewer games because of two less teams. Here we have an overall record of 89-25, 78.0 percent, yielding a handsome profit +70.25. Once again a healthy number of underdogs were part of the equation, as 36 of 89 winners were not favored.
In the interest of disclosure, this sample is just from April and no real way to know if these profits would hold up over a whole season, but based on Gold Mine's findings, no reason to believe they shouldn't.
Our next step is identifying how one could determine what teams will out-hit their opponents. Let's start with taking swings at the dish.
Major League clubs that are near or above the median levels of batting average and have three or more games with nine or more hits have to be considered a play on team. When teams have this many base hits consistently, that probably means three players in the line-up are stroking it and as is the case of most hitting streaks, they can go along for about a week seeing the ball really well.
Conversely, when teams are totaling six or fewer hits for a few outings, this might be the time to play against them since they are likely swinging at pitcher's pitches and being less selective, getting themselves out if you will.
Another factor is once a series of events has occurred, there is likely to be a reaction to them. Much of this is following detail. On April 17, the San Francisco Giants destroyed the Dodgers 9-0. Over the next seven games they total 11 runs and had a stretch of four games in the middle section where they had seven or fewer hits four times. In the last contest of the seven, they were shutout 2-0 by Brad Penny and the Cardinals, but showed signs of breaking out of slump with nine hits.
No question conventional wisdom would have suggested San Francisco would have a difficult time with Roy Halladay in town in next outing, however in the bigger picture, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants had permitted 11 hits in 19.3 innings and Philadelphia had been outhit in all three games in Arizona. If you saw this entire view, the Giants at +135 home underdog becomes far more attractive and they won 5-1.
Another example of finding value with teams swinging the lumber was Baltimore on Tuesday night. The Orioles have the worst team in the Major's and their most recent streak had reached five straight losses playing in Boston.
Baltimore started to show signs of coming out of this deep slumber with back to back nine hit games, though they only totaled four runs. After those two games they had 17 players hit their way on base, but lost 7-6 this past Saturday. That was three strong days hitting the baseball and they finally broke into the win column as +140 underdogs with 7-6 triumph, ripping 14 more hits.
It certainly would take a strong cup of courage, but here the O's stood at 3-16, playing at home where they had not won a game (0-6) this season and were +155 underdogs to the Yankees.
However, weigh these elements. Baltimore was swing hot bats, they wanted to win at home against a tormenting team and despite their starter Kevin Millwood having 0-3 record, he had a 3.38 ERA going in the contest as his teammates had scored eight runs in his four starts in 2010. The Birds were outhit 9-7 by New York, but their increased patience at the dish produced six walks and the O's were a very rewarding 5-4 winner as large ML pooch.
The other area to consider is the pitchers. This is a more complicated discussion because of the variables.
Hurlers that allow fewer hits than innings pitched and have modest walk totals are good wagers, especially with above average strikeout to walk ratios.
Starting pitchers that keep the hits down and have a history of being successful on the road are a terrific value as underdogs or small favorites. Pitching matchups also lend themselves to winning.
Any sports bettor loves an ace vs. a No. 5 starter, unfortunately that comes at a cost, namely a high money line. If the team's No. 1 guy is backed by his club smacking the horsehide when he's on the mound, the run line becomes more attractive option.
Better value can often be found when the No. 2 or 3 starter is facing a worst starting pitcher on the other team and as long as the presumed favorite is in good form and the better pitcher is not slumping, this too can be a smart wager.
There are many other scenarios, but one last important aspect to think about is the bullpen. Everything can be in order, yet a lousy bullpen with gruesome ERA and a vast number of blown saves can turn winners into losers quickly, be cognizant of this material.
To wrap this up, hitting the ball around the yard can lead to more winners than you thought possible. Stay current with the numbers and you can build your bankroll more rapidly.
One final bit of information from James book. When a team outhits the other by nine or more coming into this season, they are 197-0 all time.