Reversals of Fortune
By Kevin Rogers
A pair of West Coast teams that made many bettors money by fading them a season ago are all of a sudden producing profit this year. The Mariners and Padres both suffered through injuries, strife, and plenty of losses in 2008, but these teams have turned heads in '09 with not only great pitching, but also timely hitting, combining for a 17-9 record, while making bettors +11.5 units through the first three weeks of the season.
Seattle spent over $100 million in ’08, only to become the first team in baseball history to spend that much money and still lose 100 games, finishing 61-101. The M’s decided to shake things up in the offseason by hiring Don Wakamatsu as their skipper, a former catcher who managed four minor league teams from 1997-2000, while spending time in a handful of organizations as an assistant.
Wakamatsu does have the luxury of having ace Erik Bedard healthy after the former Orioles lefty was hurt for most of last season. Bedard, despite a 2-0 loss to the Tigers on Saturday, has an ERA of 1.86, while the M’s have won two of his three starts. The second part of the 1-2 tandem is Felix Hernandez, whose ERA isn’t as impressive as Bedard’s at 4.26. The M’s are winning behind King Felix, going 3-0 while still getting good value against the line. Seattle has not been favored by more than $1.21 so far in Hernandez’s three outings. The M’s have also profited with Hernandez as a road ‘dog over the years, going 12-4 (+11.68 units) since the start of the 2007 season.
The Padres narrowly missed the playoffs in 2007, finishing with 88 victories to fall one game short of capturing the NL Wild Card by losing 9-8 at Colorado in a thrilling extra-inning game in which they blew a two-run lead in the bottom of the 10th.
The hangover going into 2008 was devastating, as the Padres lost 99 games and finished in the cellar of the NL West. Reigning Cy Young winner Jake Peavy went from 19 wins to just 10 in ’08, missing a month with a sore right elbow. Peavy’s ERA is a bit high to start 2009 at 3.98, but the Padres' righty is regaining his old form, striking out 23 in his first three outings while winning as a ‘dog his last time out on the road against the Mets.
San Diego has also benefited from Chris Young returning to health after only 18 starts last season. Young is 2-0 this season, including a win versus Tim Lincecum and the Giants as a home underdog. The Padres are a perfect 3-0 this year as ‘dogs when Young has toed the rubber, with victories over the Dodgers and Phillies.
Both Seattle and San Diego’s offenses aren’t setting the world on fire, with both teams hovering around the .250 mark. However, the Padres have been scoring in bunches recently, putting up at least six runs in five of their last seven games. San Diego has turned heads on its current East Coast trip, winning four of six against the Mets and Phillies, including back-to-back comebacks against Philadelphia’s vaunted bullpen in victories on Friday and Saturday. It’s hard to state the Padres have a favorable schedule coming up, but they do head back to the West Coast to battle the Giants for two in San Francisco, before returning to Petco Park to host the Pirates for three games. Then, San Diego hits the road again for six games at Colorado and Los Angeles.
The Mariners re-acquired Ken Griffey Jr. to get fans back to Safeco Field and it’s worked. The future Hall of Famer has helped provide a positive vibe to a team that had problems both on the field and off last season. Griffey is batting just .233 with two homers, but the acquisition that has turned the most heads in Seattle is the play of journeyman outfielder Endy Chavez, who leads the M’s in hits (18) and average (.383) while providing a steady glove in right field. Seattle’s schedule toughens up following Detroit with nine straight games against playoff teams from last season. The club hosts the Rays first for three before going on the road to Anaheim to battle the Angels. Finally, the team heads to the Windy City to take on the White Sox.
There is no guarantee that the Mariners and Padres will be playing deep into October, but their embarrassing ’08 campaigns are behind them, and these teams will continue to make money for bettors that want value from teams not named New York or Boston.