Run Line or Money Line - Yankees case study
By Doug Upstone
The New York Yankees name and brand is known everywhere. Go any place in the world either walking or driving and you are bound to see a Yankees hat or t-shirt. When it comes to betting, the same is true, everyone knows the Bronx Bombers and their storied history and whether you love them or loathe them, everybody has an opinion on the Yankees and those setting the numbers on them are well aware of this fact.
Needless to say, it does not make a lot sense to bet against New York, as for well over a decade they have been the best team in baseball year in year out.
The Yankees success has led to frequently inflated money lines by oddsmakers, as they know the wagering public may root for an underdog from time to time, but when it comes down to placing money on wagers, favorites will get the call the vast majority of the time.
With New York having the best talent money can buy or trade for, the Yankees are often a -200 or more ML favorites and each loss suffered in this realm means at least two other victories are required to break even or show a profit.
It is often suggested by handicappers or others in wagering forums to reduce the risk of betting the Yankees from time to time, instead bet them as large favorites on the run line (-1.5). Here you are predicting New York wins by two or more runs and if they dont, your risk is basically cut in half.
The question becomes is this the right strategy?
Broke down last years championship regular season on New York and focused first on them being a -155 or higher money line favorite. Of their 162 games, the Bombers were placed in this role 82 times or just over half their contests played, which is rather hefty baggage.
For those not familiar, a -200 favorite is a 66.6 percent choice to win, basically 2-1 and manager Joe Girardis club was 58-24, 70.7 win percentage when a -155 or higher betting pick.
As you might imagine, a number of the 24 defeats were extremely pricey (five at -285 or higher) and it really cut into potential profits. For their 58 wins in this circumstance, Derek Jeter and teammates showed a meager ML profit of +7.2 units winning seven out of 10 games as decided favorites.
Instead of picking and choosing run lines, lets convert all 82 contests as good to oversized chalk into run lines.
The first bit of news is somewhat depressing, as 10 of the 58 wins were one run victories, giving us 10 more losses for wagering purposes and lowering our winning percentage to 58.5 percent, wagering on the run line.
However, many of our regular wins came with increased profits on the run line. Of our 48 W's that covered the spread (-1.5), 26 of them were in the range of -155 to -190 and instead of having a +100 profit on triumphs, the profits were +105 or greater. Those 26 wins provided rewards of +30.55 units.
Now for the math lesson on ML vs. RL.
Our 58-24 ML record added up this way.
58 units - 50.2 units = +7.8 units
But take our poorer spread record (48-34) and do the math.
New York had 26 wins that generated +30.55 to go along with the other 22 wins that added up +22 more units.
Our original 24 defeats moved over to run line bets lost -26.3 units and the new 10 extra losses against the spread cost an additional -10.5 units. Nonetheless look at the difference.
30.55 + 22 = 52.55 (-) 26.3 + 10.5 = -36.8
52.55 - 36.8 = +15.7 units
The +15.7 units of profit on the RL nearly doubles the amount made of betting the Yankees on the money line in same exact situations. What looks more enticing to you?
Another story frequently spoken in sports betting circles is taking the Yankees as -150 or smaller favorites because of the value you are getting on them as compared to higher prices. While this might be true to a point, its certainly not a fact.
Last year A-Rod and the fellas were -105 to -150 favorites 56 times, just over a third of the schedule, thus making the argument of rare opportunity sound ridiculous. In those games, Steinbrenners crew was 33-23 for +3.3 units of profit.
However, upon digging further, if the sage bettor bet the Pinstripes on the run line in price range of -130 to -150 they would have came away with +5.2 units in spite of 9-8 record or better than playing New York as valued favorite 56 times.
The Yankees are the most exaggerated team when it comes to paying the price, nevertheless public teams like Boston, Philadelphia, the Cubs or the Dodgers when they are playing well could well show more profits betting them daily on the run line vs. the money line as good-sized favorites.