Run-Line Review
By Kevin Rogers
Taking the run-line in baseball may seem like an easy proposition. Lay the 1 ½ and hope your team wins by at least two runs. The payout is usually nice, unless the favorite is listed at $2.00 or more, in which case you could win back close to even money. Regardless, with less than two months left in the season, there are plenty of teams that have routinely covered the run-line, while other teams merely have the odds higher than a coin flip to win by at least two.
Is there a correlation with teams in playoff contention to cover run-lines as oppose to teams playing for nothing winning close games? Not exactly. Out of the top ten run-line teams in baseball, six are in the midst of the playoff race. On the flip side, six contending clubs are in the bottom of the league in run-line victories.
Let's take a look at who is worth taking a shot at on the run-line the final seven weeks of the season, and the teams to stay away from in this spot.
Good
Pirates
The Pirates have completely packed it in, trading away multiple pieces of their offense for younger talent. While Pittsburgh sits in last place in the NL Central, the Bucs have been the best run-line play of any team in baseball this season, winning 82.2% of their games by at least two runs. The Pirates will unlikely be listed as a favorite of $1.40 the rest of the season, unless Zach Duke pitches against a sub-.500 team. That means if Pittsburgh is a short favorite and you feel good about backing the Bucs, there will be a nice payout on the run-line.
Rockies
The Rockies have been playing some of the best baseball in the game since June, getting themselves right at the top of the NL Wild Card race. Since June 1, Colorado has won 41 games, 20 at home and 21 on the road. The run-line numbers are staggering, as the Rockies have won 65% (13/20) of their home games by at least two runs. Meanwhile, Colorado has claimed a whooping 90% (19/21) of its road games by more than two runs. The benefit of backing the Rockies on the road in the run-line spot is getting the guaranteed ninth at-bat, as opposed to playing at home. Colorado plays only seven road series the rest of the season, but heads to Florida and Washington starting August 14, giving bettors several opportunities to back the Rockies on the run-line.
Royals
The worst team in the American League is the best team in the Junior Circuit on the run-line, winning just nine games by one run this season. Since May 24, the Royals have won 11 home games, with each of those victories coming by at least two runs. It's a tough proposition to back the Royals with a lot of confidence the rest of the way, especially with Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke was great the first two months of the season, but if you took +1 ½ with Kansas City's opponents when Greinke is favored, you would be 11-1 the last 12 games in this spot.
Bad
Mariners
Seattle has found a way to stay alive in the playoff race, even with less than two months remaining. The M's have done much of their damage with close victories, capturing 31 of 58 (53.3%) games by one run. Six of Seattle's last nine victories have come by a single run, while just two of the wins have come as a favorite.
Dodgers
Interestingly, the Dodgers are on the bad side due to plenty of early season close victories. Out of Los Angeles' last 15 victories, 12 have come by at least two runs, dating back to mid-July. Ten of the 12 wins came in the role as a favorite, providing some quality payouts on the run-line.
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