Run Line Winners and Losers
By Joe Gavazzi
Since beginning to track run line results 3 years ago, the one thing that has remained very constant has been the fact that all MLB games are decided by 2 or more runs 70-71% of the time. With that as a backdrop, let's take a look at the results of 11 teams through the All Star Break in 2012 that have deviated enough from the norm to consider them meaningful as we approach the second half of the season. One thing to keep in mind is that approximately 65-66% of home wins are by 2 or more runs while 75-76% of away wins are by 2 or more runs. This is quite simply because the home team gets only 8 at bats for a game if they are leading after 8 1/2 innings of play.
National League
Atlanta Braves With the current makeup of this Atlanta team, these results don't necessarily make sense to me. As a result, I don't have great confidence they will continue in the 2nd half….but here they are. 35/46 Atlanta wins have been by 2 or more runs. 33/39 Atlanta losses have been b y 2 or more runs including 20/22 on their home field.
St. Louis Cardinals L&L, that is Lynn and Lohse. If someone would have told you that combination would have been leading the way instead of anticipated aces Carpenter and Wainwright, you would have been hesitant to predict this continued road result for the Cards. That is especially true without the leadership of LaRussa in the dugout and Pujols at the plate. Nonetheless, this trend has continued since last season. 63/75 St. Louis road wins have come by 2 or more runs including 20/23 this season.
Colorado Rockies No surprise here. The Rockies miserable starting pitching and a bullpen that is not much better has often led to Colorado getting blown out. Even at home, their big bats are unable to keep contact. As a result, 42/52 losses have been by 2 or more runs including 22/25 on their home field. Here is a trend that could well continue.
Arizona Diamondbacks The D Backs have struggled around the .500 mark most of the season, both home and road. Now, the starters are dropping like flies. But a surprisingly good bullpen has been able to maintain leads. It has resulted in the fact that 37/42 wins have come by 2 or more runs. That includes 17/19 road wins. In a surprisingly dichotomous way, 17/21 home losses have been by 2 or more runs.
San Diego Padres Once again this season, the Padres are struggling to score runs at Petco. They average just 3 RPG at home, compared to 4 RPG away. They are being outscored at home by more than a run per game, the only team other than KC to have that dubious distinction. For the last 2 years, 66/83 home losses have been by 2 or more runs, including 22/27 home losses this year. As the Padres fall further out of reach from post season play, this trend could well continue.
American League
NY Yankees No Sabathia, no Pettite, no Rivera, NO MATTER! There has been no power outage in the Bronx this sweltering summer of 2012. NYY, with the best record in baseball, continues to roll up margin victories. In the last 2 seasons, 116/150 wins have been by 2 or more runs including 40/52 this year. The success has been true both home and away. The current home streak sees them with 109/137 home wins by 2 plus, while 64/80 road wins have been by 2 or more runs.
Baltimore Orioles There are not nearly as many manager trends in MLB as there are coaching personality profiles in College hoops. But Buck's boys have shown continued proclivity to get blown out when they are losing. This season, 34/40 Baltimore losses have been by 2 or more runs. That continues a road trend which in the last 2 seasons has seen 60/76 road losses by 2 or more runs including 18/20 this year.
Toronto Blue Jays Not sure I am buying into this half season trend particularly with the Toronto rotation injured and underachieving and the bullpen in the bottom third of MLB ratings. Nonetheless, 38/43 Toronto wins have been by 2 or more runs this year. Perhaps it would be more important to watch the dichotomous trend that has seen 17/19 Toronto home losses by 2 or more runs. In total, of the 42 home games being played by the Blue Jays, only 4 have been decided by exactly 1 run.
Cleveland Indians The rubber band hasn't snapped quite yet, like it did in 2011, but it would not surprise this bureau if it happened soon. With a bullpen only notable by its ineptitude, the Tribe has gotten blown out often. A whopping 36/41 losses have come by 2 or more runs, a situation that may well persist in 2012.
Los Angeles Angels LAA struggled to get their offense on track in the first 6 weeks. But now that the bats are booming, they are starting to win by margins. In fact, 42/48 wins have come by 2 or more runs. The improving bullpen is good enough to extend those marks as long as their sluggers keep hitting.
Texas Ranger Across the board, the Rangers have arguably the best combination of hitting and pitching numbers in the business. Thus, it is no surprise that they continue to be a margin team in 2012. They are outscoring the opposition by almost 1 full run a game. That has translated into the fact that 41/52 wins have come by 2 or more runs. Their excellence, both home and away, has shown in this category. In the last 2 seasons, 68/89 home wins have been by 2 or more runs and 65/75 road wins have been by 2 or more runs. With prices escalating on Texas in the 2nd half of the season, this is a team worthy of run line wagering.
One final suggestion when choosing to play a game on the run line: Handicap your selection first, then go to the run line results to see if those numbers reinforce a blowout win, or loss. If so, look at the opponents numbers to make sure they confirm this thinking. Remember, many savvy players often split their action on a game between the money line and the run line.