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Saturday play (s?)

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(@mr-nascar)
Posts: 128
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Hit last play with St L team total under, 2-2 week, -.05 now.

I bought two plays today:
from my best spot (1-1 here I think? Hit with NY/TB, missed with Chi/Hou),
LAA/Min Un 10 -115,
also a different spot, one that's 4-1 for the season, Chi/Fla Un 8' 115.

The second spot rarely comes up, obviously with only 5 games that fit so far this season. (reason is approx. 2 months worth of data has to be in the books in order to meet requirements for one of the qualifying parameters, so it's impossible to get plays in April and May.)
It missed last night by a hook with Wash/Pit (I wasn't able to get in here and post it.)

(note - info only, no play for me; Hou/St L barely misses this spot; one of the statistics to qualify is < X HR's combined, last 5 starts, each pitcher; today's game is 1 over the limit; tempted to buy it as it's so close but I've found that when I squeeze stuff in as a fit the win % comes down.)

I took a look at Cleveland team total under, same spot as I used with the St L game. Overall the play was at 14-7 (8-2 listed previously was incorrect; mixed up different spots.)
This play is partially based on previous game results for both teams.
I found that if I eliminate plays that had a day time start in the previous game that 14-7 record goes to 12-3.
I isolated AL spots and found they were just 4-4, so eliminate them and 14-7 goes
to 10-3 for a much higher win %.

This is what 'capping is for me. Charting many plays, dropping ones that are average and refining parameters for keepers.
I'll continue to chart AL games and spots that had a day time start in the previous game, just to make sure the pendulum doesn't go the other way, but for now I'll only play the refined situation, NL spots that follow a night game.

Good luck with your play today.

 
Posted : August 1, 2009 12:59 pm
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