Michael Alexander
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -163 Boston Red Sox Play Title: Play on Boston w/ Beckett
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Game of the Week
BECKETT is 30-10 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 21-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
BECKETT is 19-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
Alex Smart
Chicago Sky Washington Mystics
Play: Under 148.5 / 3 units
The Washington Mystics played yesterday and will now be on tired legs as they play their 5h game of the season, this Saturday against a Chicago Sky team that also played yesterday and now playing their 6th game of the season.
After allowing an average of 70 points in winning its first three games, Washington went against Julie Planks tempo and system plans and got caught up in a high scoring 93-81 loss to Atlanta. Plank will sure here ladies get back to a more conservative approach tonight , against a Sky team that suffered their first loss of the season yesterday, because of poor defense allowing 91 points in a lopsided loss. Here is a quote from Sky coach Steven Key."Our defense, from the start, was poor at best," said of the Sky, who are 14-39 all-time on the road. "We were guessing a lot has to do with what we wanted to do and they took advantage."
Needless to say both teams will be keying on paying attention to defense in this spot , which I'm betting will result in a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-3 in Sky last 12 games following a S.U. Loss. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Chicago is 15-4 Under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of seasons, with the average combined score clicking in at 140.9 PPG
Play Under 3*
New York Yankees / Florida Marlins
Play: Under 8.5 / 3 units
AJ Burnett the Yankees starting hurler tonight in South Florida vs the Marlins was fantastic in his last start, putting together seven shutout innings while allowing just four hits and striking out eight against the Mets last Sunday. He will face a Marlins offense that has been largely inconsistent this season averaging 4.3 RPG vs right handers , on a batting average that floats right around the Mendoza line.
Josh Johnson the Marlins has made 14 starts, with his team winning 11 of them. It is pretty obvious he has been a night mare for opposing offenses this season, especially here at home where in 8 starts has garnered a very stingy 2.04 ERA. The 25-year-old continues to be in top form and is off a complete game effort last time out vs Toronto. It also was his sixth consecutive quality start, and fifth straight outing of lasting at least seven innings. With the Yankees top player Alex Rodriguez expected to miss this game because of fatigue, and Derek Jeter playing with a sore ankle, Johnson should once again be dominating.
I'm betting on this top quality hurlers to go deep tonight, and for this contest to remain on the low side of the number.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These teams have gone under in 8 of the L/10 meetings in this series.
Play Under 3*
Los Angeles Dodgers / Los Angeles Angels
Play: Under 8.5 / 3 units
Jeff Weaver is expected to start tonight for the LA Dodgers, (replacing Eric Stults) as he goes against his brother Jared Weaver the starting thrower for the LA Angels. I'm betting we have ourselves a situation that sets up well for a major sibling rivalry , which in turn sets up well for a pitchers duel.
Jared Weaver the right-handed starter for the Halos has allowed just 10 earned runs in his past 89 2/3 innings of top tier baseball, which has seen him give one or no runs in six of his past eight outings, which is just incredible. Weaver has pitched like a man possessed, especially at home where he owns a 1.01 ERA in 8 starts, and in the past against the Dodgers, owns a 3-1 record along with a 1.59 ERA in five starts. He is a good bet for another big effort against a Dodgers team that is hitting just .240 in their L/7 while scoring n average of just 3.1 RPG
Meanwhile, Jeff Weaver the Dodgers man on the hill is 3-1, along with a very stable 3.72 ERA , and very capable of a top effort, in a spot start vs a team that has not faced him since the 2007 season.
Final notes & Key Trends: Jared Weaver is 10-0 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last couple of seasons, with the average combined score clicking in at 5.5 RPG . Under is 5-0 in Jeff Weavers last 5 interleague starts. Under is 5-0 in Jared Weavers last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Play Under 3*
Seattle Mariners -130) / 3 units
The Seattle Mariners are playing some excellent baseball at home of late, and are on the verge of winning their 4th straight series in front of their home town fans . The Seattle Mariners have posted a major league-best 2.64 ERA since May 20, keeping opposing offenses to a lowly .225 average during that impressive span. The Mariners have been even better in their 12 games at home in that period with a 1.69 ERA - more than a run lower than any other team.
I am betting on more of the same top tier work from the Mariners Jason Vargas , (2-2, 3.56 ERA) is one of the pitchers who has been lights out at home where he is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four appearances( three starts).
Meanwhile, Billy Buckner (2-3, 7.36) will start for the Dimaondbacks. The right hander has looked bad in losing his last two while recording a nasty looking 11.81 ERA in that span. He gave up six runs in in an 8-3 loss to Houston, last time out and is very viable fade material in this spot today.
Final notes & Key Trends: Arizona has hit a lowly .226 against LHP this season. Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Diamondbacks are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Play on the Seattle Mariners 3*
The Consensus Group
Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Lilly -168 1:05 EST
The Prez
Boston Red Sox -163 / 5 units
In his four years with the Dodgers, Lowe was inconsistent but effective. But last Sunday afternoon, against a Baltimore lineup that was without the services of Matt Wieters and Adam Jones, he served up seven runs on eight hits and three walks while retiring just seven Orioles in less than three innings of work.
Lowe has never put up big strikeout numbers, however he dependency on getting the low strike from the homeplate umpire, inducing ground balls and getting batters to swing at his sinker he's buried in the dirt has been his strength. A drop in his K/9 Rate -- from 6.6 to 6.3 to 5.2 this year -- has been compounded with a dip in his GB% from 60.3% to 56.7% rate, resulting in a tendency to pitch up in the strikezone. The 36 year-old is going to slow down at some time, and that period appears on the near horizon. In 2007 Lowe pitched 110 or more pitches 4 times. Last year he did it 5 times. So far this year, 3 of his 10 starts have hit that level. He has always been better at night and more effective when coming off a high pitch count on regular rest. Today he goes into Fenway against a Boston club that has lost two straight on six days rest after working only 2.1 innings. None of the above speaks to a bounce back performance for Lowe.
In a classic case of the numbers catching up with the peripherals, Boston starter Josh Beckett was dominant for his fourth consecutive outing (this two starts back) throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees. With the Red Sox holding a large lead and Beckett having been worked hard over the previous three starts, the Boston coaching staff gave him short pitch count (89 pitches) so he could come back strong for his next scheduled start at Citizens Bank against the Phils. He followed his dominating performance against the Yanks with a clunker against the Phils allowing six runs on eleven hits. Before his six innings of six run ball against Philadelphia he allowed one earned run in 28 1/3 innings and had lowered his ERA in the process from 5.85 to 3.77. Beckett’s BB Rate was elevated early in the year but after not walking a single Philly in his loss last Sunday he's shown the command of his arsenal is back. Beckett has dominated the Braves in his career holding the current roster of Brave hitters to a sub-.200 batting average with a career ERA of 2.45 against Atlanta.
Umpire Gary Darling is scheduled to call balls and strikes tonight at Fenway, and for a pitcher coming off a poor outing that demands the low strike, there is no worse scenario for Lowe. Darling gives pitchers the high strike, but offers no love for Atlanta's Lowe on the low strike. Expect to see more walks than strikeouts from Lowe, for the second straight start, and some high cheese from Beckett tonight.
Need more evidence that tonight's big juice game on the Red Sox offers value? Play against road underdogs (Atlanta) that are hitting less than .250 as a team over their last 20 games facing a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.000 over his previous five starts, this with a money line of +150 or more on the dog. The situation has cashed at an amazing 76-13 (85%) over the last five MLB campaigns and is 4-0 this season.
We rarely back a play of -150 or more, but today's contest offers the Red Sox nearly every angle resulting in an easy win.
5 UNIT Play on the Red Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers / Los Angeles Angels
Play: Under 9 / 4 units
The Angels Jered Weaver is rightfully the favorite tonight in a pre-Fathers Day bragging rights game over brother Jeff. Jered is 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career against the Dodgers while Jeff has had less success with a 5-8 mark, yet a respectable 4.05 ERA facing the cross-town rivals.
Jered, 7-2 with a 2.08 earned-run average, is having an All-Star season. He is unbeaten in seven starts at home. Jeff is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 games. Expect the brothers to be at their best and get help from a very pitcher-friendly vest behind homeplate.
Umpire Jeff Nelson is scheduled to call balls and strikes tonight. Nelson has, arguably, one of the largest (top-five) K-zones in the league.
4 UNIT Play on the UNDER
Teddy Covers
Giants
Robert Ferringo
Take Toronto (-115) over Washington
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Take Philadelphia (-140) over Baltimore
Take Boston (-165) over Atlanta
Take Seattle (-130) over Arizona
Take Tampa Bay (+115) over N.Y. Mets
Today's Totals
Take 'Under' 7.5 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Mets
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Toronto at Washington
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Baltimore at Philadelphia
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Houston at Minnesota
VIC MONTE
500* SYNDICATE - ROCKIES
WeCoverSpreads
Bluejays-117
After a bitter extra inning defeat last night we expect a big bounce back night from Toronto here. Brian Tallet who is a lefty pitched very well against the Nats hitters who struggle vs. southpaws all season. Tonight we get left hander Brett Cecil on the mound. The rookie has very good command in the strike zone while shutting down left handed batters; and suprisingly for a young hurler does well vs. right handed batters as well. He is more of a power pitcher than Tallet and he should go through this Nats line up just fine.
Toronto is batting .296 vs. left handed pitchers overall this season and .316 on the highway. This team is an absolute nightmare for left hander hurlers and tonight inexperienced Ross Detwiler who has a 5.23 ERA this year is up for a big task. The Nats are 0-6 is all of his starts this season. Look for the Jays to even things up tonight by lighting him up.
Orioles+132
Bradley Bergesen looks like a bright spot for the O's organization for years to come. The rookie has a 3.79 ERA 4-2 record and 33/17 strike out to walk ratio. He has pitched four quality starts in a row; giving up just six runs in those games. We don't expect Beresen to back down from the Phillies line up today; he has experienced an arsenal of AL offensive juggernauts and should do just fine tonight.
Lefty J.A. Happ gets the start for Philly tonight and he is facing a Baltimore team who has been crushing southpaws their last 10 games hitting .320. His last three starts he has given up 13 hits and nine earned runs in 11 innings of work. The reigning World Series Champs have been a bankroll burner this season with a 13-20 home record this year. We'll take the dog value against an overpriced struggling rookie tonight in what should be more of an even priced game.
Street Rosenthal
*300 Detroit Tigers -102
We find the Tigers in a good spot to take another game from the Brewers. David Bush is a terrible 3-15 SU as an Away Dog and their opponent had greater than 4 runs in their previous game. Take the Tigers as small home favorites.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Play Boston Red Sox (-165) over Atlanta Braves
(MLB INTER-LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR)
Boston has won 7 of the last 10 games and they have also won 46 of the last 64 games when playing as a favorite of -125 to -175. Josh Beckett has won 7 of the last 8 games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he is 3-0 in home games this season with an ERA of 3.55. Atlanta has lost 6 of the last 9 games and Derek Lowe has an ERA of 6.61 over the last 3 starts.
50* Play Chicago Cubs (-170) over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Cleveland has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 8 of the last 10 games when playing on a Saturday. Cleveland has lost 15 of the last 22 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and Tomo Ohka has an ERA of 7.30 vs. Chicago over his career.
50* Play LA Angels (-170) over LA Dodgers (MLB BONUS PLAY)
The Los Angeles Angels have won 7 consecutive games and they have also won 9 of the last 10 inter-league games. Jered Weaver has won 4 consecutive games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is also 5-0 at home this season with an ERA of 1.01.
25* Play Florida (-110) over NY Yankees (MLB BONUS PLAY)
AJ Burnett has lost 45 of the last 65 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has also lost 29 of the last 39 road games when working with five or six days of rest. Josh Johnson has won 17 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is also 6-1 in all starts this season with an ERA of 2.76.
Brandon Lang
10 Dime Cubs Run Line - Ted Lilly comes into this one after picking up his 10th quality start in his last outing, against the Twins. The southpaw was imprssive in his domination of Minnesota, as he limited it to just two runs on nine hits over 7-2/3 innings, yet he missed on the win. He'll be extremely hungry to get that victory tonight. Lilly is 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in six home starts, while he's lasted six innings in each of those games. His strikeour-to-walk ratio is also a dandy, as he's struck out 38 at home while walking five over 42-2/3 innings, including his last start, in which he didn't walk a single batter. Going back to his days in the American League, he is 4-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 career games versus the Indians. Whether or not that matters remains to be seen, but tonight, as a Cub, he'll dominate once again.
10 Dime Red Sox Run Line - Ace Josh Beckett's run of seven straight quality starts came to an abrupt end in his last outing, as Philadelphia pounded out 11 hits and seven runs - six of them earned - in six frames. Good news, aside fromt he fact he'll want to avenge that loss, is he's 3-0 with a 3.55 ERA in six Fenway starts this season. Plus, opponents are hitting a slim .245 against him. This is good spot for him, against the Braves, as he's posted a career 2.45 ERA against them. And while he's limiting them to minimal damage, I expect the Red Sox lineup to light up their former teammate, Derek Lowe, who was tagged for seven earned runs and who lasted just 2-1/3 innings against the Orioles in his last start. Play the BoSox tonight.
10 Dime Orioles - This kid Brad Bergesen isn't too shabby. I know I've been riding the Phillies' young bucks when it's their turn to toes the slab, including J.A. Happ, but the Baltimore right-hander comes in after tossing his first career complete game, as he picked up his fourth win of the season by taking care of the Braves with ease. Bergesen tossed 112 pitches, gave up two earned runs on five hits and struck out three. My boy Happ has struggled inhis previous two starts (against the Mets and Red Sox), going 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA. Batters are hitting .302 against him in those two games, and I expect the Orioles to come in swinging tonight.
FREE - Mets
PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS
NY Mets -112 *Top Play*
Seattle -127
Street Rosenthal
*300 Detroit Tigers -102
We find the Tigers in a good spot to take another game from the Brewers. David Bush is a terrible 3-15 SU as an Away Dog and their opponent had greater than 4 runs in their previous game. Take the Tigers as small home favorites.
These are Street Rosenthal Plays
*200 Boston Red Sox -166
*200 New York Mets -115
Don't think the above play is His.
Yes Tigers
Added Two Plays
Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK CALI-CARTEL
25 DIME RELEASE
New York Yankees