Craig Davis
40 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS (With Cecil and Detwiler as listed pitchers)
10 Dime ---- GIANTS (With Cain) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RANGERS (With Holland)
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (With Cecil and Detwiler as listed pitchers) --- This one was easy to spot. As many of you know, I'm not a big fan of pitchers who go back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation, and Detwiler (who I've played against in the past for this very same reason) is a classic poster child. The Nationals have been desperate for pitching since the beginning of the year... they've had trouble nailing down a closer, the bullpen has been a mess, and other than a few, spotty, solid starts from guys like John Lannan and Jordan Zimmerman, the rotation is a joke. Ross Detwiler doesn't help.Since being called to the rotation, Detwiler has allowed 19 earned runs in 32 innings of work (5.34 ERA), but has been even worse in his last four starts, failing to last past the 6th inning in any start while posting a 6.21 ERA in those four games. He's also had some troubles with his control recently, walking five batters in his last game and three the game before that. He also failed to strike out a batter vs. Tampa Bay and the Nationals lost another one of his starts, 5-4. Remember, Detwiler hasn't earned a win in six starts for the Nationals and I don't see that streak ending tonight.For Toronto, they send lefty Brett Cecil to the hill. He started 2009 hot and I have seen enough of his games to know what he's capable of. After allowing 8 ERs to the Boston Red Sox back on May 20th, the Blue Jays panicked and sent him back down to the minors. Desperate again, they have recalled him to start tonight against Washington. If you look at his first three starts of the season, he allowed just four earned runs 20 innings of work, posting two wins and a no decision. I backed Cecil as a big 40-dime winner over Oakland in his second start of the season and it came through as Toronto dominated their way to a 5-0 win. Cecil has all the physical tools to get the job done tonight, it's going to come down to a matter of how serious he is mentally. In an attempt to earn his job back for good, I believe you will see the best Cecil has to offer.Toronto may have only scored one run last night vs. Jordan Zimmerman, but they clearly have the offense to score 6 or 7 runs easily, and they may get there by the 5th inning against Detwiler. Prior to last night's game, the Jays scored 8, 7, and 8 runs for a three-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia... beating Hamels, Blanton and Moyer. That's an impressive resume any way you slice it, and if he can't beat Ross Detwiler tonight he probably doesn't deserve to be in the majors right now.The Blue Jays offense absolutely tatooes lefties, hitting .297 for the season against southpaws, including 22 home runs and an OPS of .832. They've beaten good lefties in the past (guys like Cole Hamels and Jon Lester) and there's no reason to think they can't do it again. Washington, on the other hand, does not hit lefties well, batting just .242 against them for the season. With Cecil out to win a permanent job, I believe the Washington bats are in trouble. Bottom line is that Toronto's offense is better and they have the clear advantage on the hill. Take the Blue Jays as your top play of the day.
SF GIANTS (WITH CAIN) -1 1/2 RUN LINE OVER THE RANGERS (WITH HOLLAND) --- I will continue to back Matt Cain until he lets me down. If I've counted correctly, I have backed him three consecutive times and he's delivered three consecutive wins. In fact, I could have backed him 8 straight times and come out on top... those are pretty good numbers. His overall record is 9-1 and since early in the season he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, I'd argue that he, and not Tim Lincecum, is the ace of this staff this year. Cain hasn't allowed more than one earned run in five of his last six starts, and when he starts at home he's even better, not to mention the fact he faces an offense today that's hitting .266 against righties. The Giants are 22-12 at home and face a team that has a .500 record on the road and a pitcher that was once in the bullpen and now finds himself in the rotation. Remember, that's a "no no". Derek Holland has allowed 10 earned runs in his last three games (11 innings) and just doesn't seem to have the stuff to be a starter... at least not yet. This one will be a laugher as the Giants win by at least four today.
GOOD LUCK !!
Marco D Angelo
He is a no post Bio
IndianCowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between Atlanta Braves @ Boston Redsox
Let's keep rolling in baseball. When Lowe got shelled in his last contest for 7 runs in just over 2 innings against the Orioles, I thought he might have been looking ahead to this game. This will be a bit of an emotional start for him at his old stomping grounds, but I expect him to bounce-back well. Lowe had 8 of 9 quality starts prior to his latest non-quality start in Baltimore. Keep in mind Beckett was roughed up in his most recent start as well as he gave up 6 runs in as many innings in Philadelphia as prior to that he had given up just 1 run in 28 innings (comprising of 4 total starts). Look for this game to be a pitcher's duel likely and who knows the Braves might even have a shot at pulling this game outright. But, I can't force myself to bet against Boston in bean town, so having said that, going with the Under today as it is 6-1 when the Braves are an interleague dog of this margin, 5-0 to the under when Lowe starts to a total this low and the Under is 6-0 for Beckett following a Boston loss.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 147.5 between the Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics
The Chicago Sky come off one of their worst losses in franchisehistory to the Sun by a score of 61-91. The Sun of course drilled them because they were coming off a tough road trip and they needed a big win at home at least for morale. The Sky were the unfortunate recipient of the beat down. This happened yesterday and now the Sky turnaround and hit the road at Washington as they look to bounce-back.Do they bounce-back big and win on the road today? This is tough to say considering Washington is 3-1 and has the likes of Alan Beard and Monique Curry. But, what one has to think that after giving up 91 points to Conn, defense is the focus of today for the Sky. Washington is typically an Under team at home and an over team on the road. The MysticZZs too come off a loss to the Dream who beat them in a home and home and I suspect they too will avoid giving up 93 points as they did to the Dream in their previous game. The Mystics are likely to win this game at home on the bounce-back, but let’s roll with the Under as both teams highlight defense coming off tough losses where they gave up 90+ points apiece. The Under is 9-3 for the Sky following a loss and the Under is 4-1 between these two teams the last 5 meetings.
ASA
5* Florida Marlins
Tim Trushel
20* White Sox / Reds Under 8
Nick Parsons
Blue Jays/Nationals Under
NY Yankees
Jefferson Sports
Washington +107
NY Yankees -105
Texas +130
Arizona +115