GAMEDAY
3* UCLA
2* KANSAS
RAS
1/2 UNIT - KANSAS
THE SPORTS MEMO
MEMPHIS VS UCLA
Recommendation: Memphis
UCLA played its best game of the tournament in its Elite Eight win over Xavier, shooting 50% from the field, staking claim on the glass and allowing only one Musketeer player to shoot over 50% from the floor. A key for the Bruins in this game is going to be avoiding the large first half deficit,something Memphis inflicted on both Michigan State and Texas. Another key is perimeter defense on the bevy of Memphis guards that are relentless off the dribble. The Bruins are now making their third straight trip to the Final Four, but those appearances have been anything but pretty offensively. Two years ago, en route to a National Title game loss to Florida, the Bruins failed to reach the 60-point mark. Last season, in their Final Four rematch vs. the Gators, the Bruins shot only 39% from the floor. And while the UCLA defense is arguably the best of the remaining four teams, the bottom line is that they are going to need to not only counter the expected offensive surges of Memphis, but find ways to score down the stretch. As for Memphis, it continues to be the Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose show, with both players combining for 43 ppg through four tournament games. On paper, UCLA does not have a player who can matchup with Douglas-Roberts, let alone Rose. Darren Collison has been a disappointment thus far and will likely have a tough time coming with strong efforts on both ends of the court. The matchup in the paint we see as a wash. UCLA’s Kevin Love will inevitably have his 20-10 night but Memphis will be able to throw multiple big bodies at him throughout the night. We need to make mention of the “hack-a-Tiger” theory, something both Texas and Mississippi State utilized. Texas was down double-digits for most of the game and felt its only chance was to start fouling with more than three minutes left in the game. The gamble didn’t pay off as UM shot 30-of-36, 83% for the game, proving good free throw shooting is nothing more than the will to concentrate and focus. In what should have been an easy ticket to cash for those who played the Under became the epitome of frustration as the clock stood at a virtual standstill the last three minutes of the game. Even with the stellar performance from the line from Memphis against UT, if UCLA is down by anything inside of 15, they’ll be fouling until the final buzzer. They say defense wins championships and while there is some truth to that theory, you can’t put enough value on being able to score in bunches. UCLA’s defense is a team-oriented, containment-style that has little trouble shutting down average offenses. Memphis not only has a superior offense, but their individual talent is one few teams have been able overcome. Take the Tigers to advance to the Finals on the backs of their stellar guard play
NC VS KANSAS
Recommendation: North Carolina
Louisville’s game plan was more than questionable especially in the first half as they decided to pick up North Carolina full court. The result wasn’t pretty with Ty Lawson being one of the quickest players in the country free throw line to free throw line. This game is virtually a mirror image of the other Final Four matchup in that UNC, like Memphis, can pour on 8-10 points before KU even knew what him them. So if the Jayhawks want to compete or even win this game, their transition defense needs to have zero flaws. Statistically,UNC’s defense wasn’t all that impressive vs. Louisville but the fact that they were in control of the game for virtually all of the 40 minutes, makes the Cardinals’ 53% field goal night meaningless. KU is a notch above Louisville on offense and will need to have a good balance of transition and half court baskets to keep the Tar Heels honest. Kansas’ defense has flat out dominated each and every opponent thus far in the tournament. Davidson shot the best of the Jayhawks’ four opponents at 39% and more importantly were held to just four points the last 5:20 of the ball game. And for all of those people who feel Kansas took Davidson lightly, we’ll be the first to point out that the Wildcats were not only worthy of being in that game, but had they won, it wouldn’t have been because Kansas overlooked them. Down the stretch, KU did exactly what they needed to do to win the game and that was to shut down Stephen Curry. Now, it took a box-and-one defense to do so, but this far into the tournament,you can’t become wrapped up in how much or little teams win by game to game. For Kansas, this will mark the first time since November of 2006 that they will be playing the role of an underdog. In that game, they defeated Florida, 82-80 in overtime. Florida obviously went on the win the National Title. An obvious key matchup in this game will be how the Jayhawks defend Tyler Hansbrough on the block. Guarding Hansbrough one-on-one isn’t the issue, it is denying him the countless garbage points he seems to always pick up by being in the right place at the right time. We saw Kansas have a tough time defending Michael Beasley (64 points in both games combined) and unlike K-State, focusing too much effort on Hansbrough will ultimately lead to one if not two of UNC’s arsenal of players to have big games. And while we give much respect to KU’s defense, keep in mind North Carolina averaged 82.6 ppg this season when shooting below 45% from the floor. Even though there is going to be an obvious knee-jerk reaction to how “ugly” Kansas played in their win against Davidson, the fact of the matter is we feel the three-point line is just. The play, however,goes to the Tar Heels who look to be one of the most potent and efficient offenses in recent tournament histoRY
BRENT CROW
UCLA vs. Memphis -1 O/U 134.5
Recommendation: Over
This matchup offers two excellent defensive teams, but we still like the total to go over 134.5. My power rating numbers make the total for this game at 142, so I think there is value in playing the over based on numbers alone. Despite the great defense that both teams are capable of playing, the tempo of this game and the fact that both teams are so good offensively is what also makes this a good bet to go over. Memphis is more well known for their up-tempo game, but the Bruins will also push the pace when given the chance. The UCLA guards, Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook, are both excellent in the open court on the break, and both are tremendous finishers around the rim. Memphis also has a slew of guards and athletes that can get out and finish on the break. Both teams are also well aware of the caliber of defense that their opposition plays, so each coach knows that the need for easy buckets out on the break is key. For that reason, I do not think either coach will want to get caught in a grind-it-out half-court game. Memphis had many opponents try to slow the game down during conference play, but those were overmatched opponents, which UCLA is obviously not. The Bruins actually prefer to play fairly fast, and they are not about to change their style of play because of Memphis. Look for both teams to potentially score in the 70s as we side with the over
JARED KLEIN
Calgary at Vancouver (4/5)
Recommendation: Flames
So far heading into this week, nothing has been decided on who will be the Northwest Division champion. Here is a quick breakdown of the contenders for the Northwest: Minnesota is five points up on Calgary but the Flames currently have two games in hand. Minnesota has two games left (one road, one home). Colorado has two out of their last three on the road against the Northwest Division. They are four points back from Minnesota with only two games left. And Vancouver has three out of their last four at home. Injuries are starting to get to the Canucks and I don’t feel they are going to be left standing in the race for the Northwest Division crown. Brendan Morrison and defensemen Lukas Rejoice and Mattias Ohlund are out for the rest of the season and it looks like the Canucks are going to miss the playoffs after winning the Northwest last season. What makes matters worse is that All-Star goaltender Roberto Luongo’s wife just delivered a baby last week and in his first game back he gave up four goals against Minnesota.Calgary plays their last four games on the road all against the Northwest, but having said that I still think they have a good opportunity to win their division because of their vastly improved 19-18 road record this year compared to last year’s dismal mark of 13-28. Look for the Flames to take advantage of a banged up Vancouver team and stay in the hunt for the Division crown
FAIRWAY JAY
Toronto at New Jersey (4/5)
Recommendation: Nets
Tough travels for Toronto, who finds themselves in an unfavorable schedule spot here versus division foe New Jersey. The Raptors are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and come off a home game Friday evening following a pair of road contests. Tough travel and turnaround here taking on a Nets team that is pushing for a playoff spot and eager to turn the tables on Toronto for the two blowout losses this season. Off their Friday contest at Detroit, New Jersey has just two home games remaining in their final seven contests and they will be the more motivated team with better energy and effort.The Nets have become a much more efficient offensive team since the Devin Harris trade, as they share the ball better and have improved offensive rhythm and scoring production. The Nets have scored over 103 points in 10 of their last 12 games entering the week. Meanwhile, despite the return of Chris Bosh and T.J. Ford back into the starting lineup, Toronto has allowed two other top-tier offensive teams to score 109+ points in defeat. The Raptors have lost six-straight road games entering the week, and this game looks quite meaningless to Toronto with regards to playoff positioning. There are also some very strong late-season situational parameters that could be in play here based on these two team’s results during the week. Check back Saturday for the update, but we’ll support New Jersey here regardless as the Nets ‘shoot’ their way to a solid home victory.
WINNING POINTS
North Carolina over Kansas by 11
You’ve got four #1 seeds in the Final Four, and if it was a game of “Which Doesn’t
Belong and Why?,” then the Kansas Jayhawks would be our pick. They’re a bunch of
talented kids whose coach comes in tied for third-place with Memphis’ Calipari in the
coaching department, who want to run up and down the floor swatting at passes andputting up tough shots while posing for the camera – “Someone take my picture in mid-air, please!” With Brandon Rush, the mentality comes with brother Kareem’s genes. Sasha the Stiff Kaun as the Jayhawks’ carrier to the Final Four? Could have only happened in a match-up against Davidson’s lean front line, which wasn’t beefy enough to get in his way, not deep enough to afford to foul him hard, and whose offensive shooters are less than so-so when matched up vs. athletes of Kansas’ caliber. That analyses contains zero sour grapes, which you know following the “Take the Points!” advice regarding Davidson vs. Kansas from last week (followed with a 7-Star Davidson +9 win for Executive Club members on game-day, which came on the heels of an Executive Club game-day winner on Kansas, -11.5 vs. Villanova). Following a happy, 2-0 weekend of involvement in Kansas games (3-0 run counting Kansas, -13 vs. UNLV in the Second Round), we come to this Final Four game where Sasha the Stiff Kaun is about to pull the incredible disappearing act against Carolina’s reliable Tyler Hansbrough (23 and 10). On the whole, the Tar Heels are not a huge team. Deon Thompson (6-8, 245) and Alex Stephenson (6-9, 245) are sophomores playing just 21 and 14 minutes per game with Hansbrough’s 6-9, 250 body in there for 33 minutes per game. But the Jayhawks are no bigger. Darrell Arthur is also a soph, playing 24 minutes per game at 6-9, 225. At 6-8, 250, this is four-year senior Darnell Jackson’s first campaign with more than 20 minutes per game, and first with a double-digit scoring average (11.3). Kaun, at 6-11, 250, is a 17 minute-per-game senior with a single-digit career scoring average who saw more floor time in match-up advantages against smaller Villanova (whose 6-10, 270 Casiem Drummond conveniently was out injured) and Davidson last weekend. Around the perimeter, at 6-4 and 6-5 and 200-plus pounds, Carolina’s Ellington and Ginyard match up just fine against 6-6 Rush, 6-1 Mario Chalmers and 5-11 Sherron Collins – after all, there is only one ball on the court, and in the highestprofile game of the year against the highest-caliber opponent, this simple fact figures to hurt Kansas. Carolina point guard Ty Lawson is 5-11, 195 and Kansas point guard Russell Robinson 6-1, 200, but not the reliable scorer Lawson is. The Tar Heels also managed to win six out of seven games where Lawson was injured this season, five of them by double-digits. Kansas thinks they’ll love playing at North Carolina’s 73.8-possession pace. They think wrong, and if they want a half-court game, they’re also wrong. We thought Carolina would hate one of those and have a 68-47 Sweet 16 loss with Washington State against the Tar Heels to prove us wrong. NO CAROLINA, 83-72.
UCLA over Memphis by 1
Two weeks before the regular season ended, odds on the UCLA Bruins to win the
NCAA Tournament were 9-2. You began reading on these pages the following advice,
in no uncertain terms: “Buy your NCAA Future on the Bruins,” and the regular reminder, “Have you bought your NCAA Future on the Bruins yet?” With a 9-2 future
purchased, one ignores UCLA here (because there is a $350 return for every $100 if
they win the title) and possibly plays Memphis in this game as a hedging tool. That’s
really the way to play the Final Four – get odds on a team to win the whole thing, get
that team to the Final Four, then hedge elsewhere in an attempt to guarantee a profit
if that team doesn’t make it. If you have a future on Memphis to win it all, then you’d
pass on Memphis here and have UCLA as a possible hedge tool. The teams last met in 2005-06, two times. In November, Memphis won 88-80 at Madison Square Garen in New York. Four months later in March at the Elite 8, UCLA won 50-45 in Oakland.
"We play defense. That's what we do. We didn't let them walk over us," said long-since departed UCLA guard Cedric Bozeman afterwards. But Cedric Bozeman was long and lean, unlike any of the current group of UCLA guards who will attempt to defend against a Memphis backcourt that made Drew Neitzel and Kalin Lucas of Michigan State look like chumps, and made D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams of Texas look like a high school J.V. players. Darren Collison is 6-0, 160. Russell Westbrook is 6-3, 189. Josh Shipp is 6-5, 220, but as a spot-up jump-shooter against players with a wider array of NBA-level skills, he is not versatile enough to be a scary piece of the puzzle. With Memphis’ Chris Douglas-Roberts at 6-7, 200, Derrick Rose at 6-2, 205 and Antonio Anderson 6-6, 210, matching up against Memphis on the perimeter is hard to do Collison is quick and can penetrate – or will think he can penetrate -- but Memphis has a lot of perimeter length to get past, and too many shot alterers and influencers down low. Also, Collison comes in second to Rose in many categories, including size, agility in transition, elusiveness in the lane, ability to elevate. But it just doesn’t seem likely that UCLA will pull a Michigan State and cower at the prospect of being on the floor with Memphis, or pull a Rick Barnes and have no clue how to manage the first half in order to have a chance to stay within range. Collison will more than likely walk it up from start to finish and stay in control – unlike the poorly prepared Augustin kid.Giving Memphis as few possessions as possible will frustrate the Tigers a little bit, and Ben Howland can field some tough-as-nails interior players who have made a collegiate career of willingly doing dirty work inside. Kevin Love’s outside shot takes Memphis’ Joey Dorsey away from total dominance on the defensive glass. When the game stays close, that’s when Memphis’ 59.5% free-throw shooting – suddenly forgotten about after last weekend’s blowout wins – can come into play against them. UCLA, 70-69.
***BEST BET
*Denver over Sacramento by 17
Idle since Tuesday, the Nuggets should be rested and primed for a huge effort against Sacramento, a team they’ve already beaten twice this season. With a playoff berth possibly at stake, the Nuggets know they can’t afford a letdown at home. The Nuggets have scored at least 103 points in 14 consecutive games through March 30. Sacramento had dropped nine of its last 10 away matchups through March 29. DENVER 123-106.
EZ WINNERS
FINAL FOUR
5 STAR: (813) MEMPHIS (-2.5) over Ucla
(Risking $550 to win $500)
5 STAR: (815) KANSAS (+3.5) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
MLB
5 STAR: (953) HOUSTON (-$120) over Chicago
(Listing Oswalt and Marquis)
(Risking $600 to win $500)
2 STAR: (963) PITTSBURGH (+$112) over Florida
(Listing Maholm and Hendrickson)
(Risking $200 to win $224)
1 STAR: (951) SAN FRANCISCO (+$163) over Milwaukee
(Listing Correia and Parra)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
BIO-RHYTHM PLAY
1 STAR: (967) TAMPA BAY (+$214) over NY Yankees
(Listing Jackson and Pettitte)
(Risking $100 to win $214)
2-Minute Warning = North Carolina
ARTHUR RALPH Cleve Indians
GAMBLERS DATA COMP DENVER -11
Chuck Franklin
Sacramento at DENVER -11
The Nuggets, without a suspended Kenyon Martin, are in a must-win situation if they want to keep the Golden State Warriors from overtaking them for the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference. Denver is a solid 31-7 at the Pepsi Center and has won nine consective home games. This will be an easy win and cover.
As well as the Kings are playing lately, they have covered the spread only three times in the last 12 road games and they are only 1-4 ATS the last five games they've played after winning by more than 10 points their previous game. Denver has covered 10 of the last 13 games overall and 16 of the last 21 home games. They are on a 5-0 ATS run when playing teams with a losing record.
This will be an absolute blowout!
3* DENVER
JEFF SCOTT
UCLA +2 over Memphis: The Memphis Tigers have been very impressive in the tourney, but I believe the Bruns are poised for the upset. The Bruins are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5, while the Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. and 2-5 ATS their last 7 vs the Pac-10. Memphis has scored 7.4 ppg more than the Bruins this year, but UCLA has the edge in offensive FG%, overall defense and a huge edge in FT shooting. Kevin Love is the missing link for UCLA to make the Championship game and today he will help them get there.
MILWAUKEE/ San Francisco OVER 9: The 5-1 in Giants last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter, while the Over is 20-7-1 in Brewers last 28 home games, plus the Over is 11-2-2 in the last 15 meetings. The Brewers have begubn this season very stron offensively, as they have scored 7rpg through their first 4 contests. The Giants won't be known for their offensive prowess this year, but they are facing a pitcher making just his 3rd career start, so they should be able to punch through a few runs. There msy not be 17 runs scored in this game, but I still see a game in double figuRes.
SOME KEY TRENDS FOR TODAY'S ACTION
NBA
Orlando is 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a S.U. loss.
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Atlanta is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The 76ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Boston is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
The Under is 11-3 in Bobcats last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Nets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Washington is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
The Bulls are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 Saturday games.
The Kings are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog.
The Nuggets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Erin Rynning
20* UCLA + 2
Play By Play Inc.
MEMPHIS at UCLA Over 134.5
KANSAS at NORTH CAROLINA Over 159
Armvin Sports
Chicago Cubs + 110
MIGHTY QUINN
UCLA and Kansas
THE VEGAS STEAMLINE
Sacramento +11
DR. BOB
UCLA (+2) 2-Stars at +2 or more.
Kansas (+3) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Ucla (+2) over Memphis
My ratings favored UCLA ahead of Memphis heading into this tournament and I still rate the Bruins as a better team. Memphis has certainly been impressive the last two games, but the Tigers actually apply to a negative 1-13 ATS Final Four situation that is based on their impressive recent performances. My ratings favor UCLA by a point and I’ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**Kansas (+3) over North Carolina
No team has been more impressive than North Carolina in this tournament, but that does not necessary bode well for them in the Final Four. Teams that covered the spread in their first 4 tournament games are 0-10 ATS in the national semifinals against teams that have not covered all 4 tourney games (since 1993), so don’t overreact to the Tarheels’ great tournament run in which all 4 games were semi-home games played in the state of North Carolina. North Carolina actually applies to a very negative 4-33 ATS NCAA Tournament situation and teams coming off a spread loss in their regional finals win (as Kansas is) are 9-1 ATS in the national semis, so don’t make too much of the Jayhawks’ close call against an underrated Davidson squad. In fact, North Carolina only beat Davidson by 4 points when they played the Wildcats back in November. My ratings do favor North Carolina by 3 ½ points, but I’ll give up some line value to make the Jayhawks a Best Bet because the situation is so strong. I’ll take Kansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more.
MIKE WYNN
Kansas City w/Meche +105 Over Minnesota
DAVE COKIN
The Atlanta bullpen looks like a real trouble spot right now, and that's a potential difference maker as they host the Mets Saturday. John Maine had a great spring and I like it to carry over to his first regular season start. The Mets are the choice
JIM FEIST
Boston is outstanding defensively, allowing 90 ppg and 41% shooting by opponents, both tops in the NBA. They take on a Charlotte Bobcat squad that is not a great shooting team. The Bobcats appear to be tiring out offensively at the end of a long season, on an 8-3 run under the total. The Celtics won?t have any trouble shutting them down, and they are on a 9-5-1 run under the total of their own. Play the Celtics/Bobcats under the total!
Triple Threat Sports
Cleveland (Sabathia) ovee Oakland (Eveland)
Tribe played a sloppy game yesterday, throwing the ball all over the yard and making baserunning errors as well. Should be back focused here and the offense should not have a ton of trouble with Eveland, who has a 7.55 ERA in 64.1 Major League innings.
TONY WESTON
OK, so sure the Padres got bombed last night as the Dodgers beat them 7-1 in the first game of their series opener. But through six innings the game was tied 1-1. It wasn’t until Joe Thatcher took the mound for San Diego did the bottom fall out. Officially Thatcher gave up only four earned runs, but it seemed like 15. Luckily for the Pads, Thatcher likely won’t be brought in today as Jake Peavy, arguably the best pitcher in the game today, takes the mound for San Diego. And usually when Peavy starts against the Dodgers, you can chalk it up as a win. I will.The Padres are 10-1 in Peavy’s last 11 starts against Los Angeles, they’re 6-0 in his last six home starts against the Dodgers and they’re 4-1 in the last five meetings when Peavy faces Los Angeles starting pitcher Brad Penny.Bottom line, Peavy owns the Dodgers and San Diego will get the win.
Take the Padres at home.
3* PADRES (1* to 5* Scale)
Bobby Maxwell
24 hours ago these two teams played in Atlanta and the Hawks couldn't stop the Sixers. What will be different tonight when the series shifts to Philadelphia’ Nothing. Look for the Sixers to continue this amazing roll they're on and win this one by 10 points.Philly is 13-4 since March 1 and gotten the cash in 12 of those 17 games. They've played so well, they've earned their spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs after a lot of experts were saying this was one of the worst teams in the NBA early in the season.The Sixers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games with the only loss coming to the Suns on March 28. They are on ATS runs of 12-4 at home, 23-8-1 in their last 32 overall and 36-15 on Saturdays. Credit to Maurice Cheeks for bringing this team together and making them realize that they could compete in the East.Atlanta was a chic pick to make the playoffs early in the season but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. The Hawks just can't seem to get into that final spot and always seem to shoot themselves in the foot when they get close.While I don't think he's a championship point guard, Andre Miller has definitely brought some stability and smart play to the Sixers. Look for them to get an easy win tonight over the Hawks and make it two in a row in 24 hours.
4* PHILADELPHIA
Lefty Adam Loewen starts tonight for the Orioles after going 2-0 in just six starts last season with a 3.56 ERA in 30.1 innings. He started 19 games in 2006, going 6-6 with a 5.37 ERA.Veteran Miguel Batista starts for Seattle after coming in the game against Texas on Wednesday and pitching an inning of relief and getting the save. He was 16-11 last year with a 4.29 ERA in 32 starts for the Mariners.And while the Baltimore starters have been a little shaky this season, the bullpen has been outstanding, allowing just on run in 12 innings of work. The Mariners have been horrible in the pen, giving up nine earned runs in 11 innings this season.The Orioles offense is going to be the question mark all season but they've played well so far and look for them to have another good one against Batista. If Baltimore's Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are hitting this can be a dangerous team. If not, they are going to be quiet.But they're hitting so far and the three combined for seven hits Friday. Let's play the Orioles to keep hitting and win this one tonight.
3* BALTIMORE
Black Widow Sports
1* on Denver Nuggets -11
Denver is close to the finish line and they know they can’t afford to lose to the Sacramento Kings at home tonight. The Nuggets would be the No. 8 seed in the playoffs if the season were to end today. Denver has been dominant at home all season, especially as of late. The Nuggets are 31-7 at home this season with a 23-15 ATS mark as well. Denver is outscoring their opponents by an average of 11 points per game at home. The Nuggets are scoring 120 points per game over their last 5 games, giving the Kings little hope to even compete tonight. Denver has now won 9 straight home games with dominant wins over the Suns twice, Spurs, Warriors, Mavs and Raptors just to name a few. Denver is 13-4 ATS versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 20 assists/game this season. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.
Cappers Access
UCLA
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