Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -111
(Listing Hernandez Only)
The Minnesota Twins will hand the Royals their second loss of the season behind Livan Hernandez Saturday. Hernandez had a great start in the Twins’ opener this season with a 3-2 victory over the Angels. Hernandez didn’t walk a single batter while allowing just 7 hits in 7 innings of work, showing his control is much better to start the season. The Twins knew what they were doing when picking up Hernandez in the offseason. Gil Meche lost his last 2 starts at Minnesota for the Royals last season. Despite pitching decently, Meche got just 1 run of support in 0-5 and 1-3 losses respectively. It’s the Royals’ lack of run support that keeps killing Meche and it will doom him again Saturday when Hernandez shuts down the opposition. Meche is 3-18 (-18.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by their opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Cash in with Minnesota as the favorite.
Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK
100 DIME PLAY
NORTH CAROLINA
Guys, since we're up some 700 dimes in football and basketball this year, I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point in the following scenarios: This line is floating between 3 and 3 1/2 points. So if you've got North Carolina -3 I want you to buy it down to -2 1/2 so you still win if the Tar Heels prevail by three points. And if you get North Carolina at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a three-point victory.
I got the call for this play early Friday afternoon and released it immediately. Checking Vegas and offshore, I saw mostly -3 and -3 1/2 with only one or two notorious "superbooks" at -4 and those places always run a half-point higher with favorites. (This shows again why you should always have more than one place to play so you can shop for the best price). Nevertheless, even at -4, North Carolina is still the play.
Naturally, if you have UNC at -3 or -3 1/2, we are putting our profit to work for us by buying a little insurance and maximizing the odds in our favor. We are in essence using the power of money - our profit of 700+ dimes - against the bookmaker.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
Bob Balfe
Ucla
UNCKansas Under 160
SF Giants Under
ATS Basketball Lock Club
4 units UCLA
4 units UNC
ATS Hockey Lock Club
3 units Atlanta
3 units Over Flor-Wash
Any IndianCowboy? Thanks.
EZ WINNERS
FINAL FOUR
5 STAR: (813) MEMPHIS (-2.5) over Ucla
(Risking $550 to win $500)
5 STAR: (815) KANSAS (+3.5) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
MLB
5 STAR: (953) HOUSTON (-$120) over Chicago
(Listing Oswalt and Marquis)
(Risking $600 to win $500)
2 STAR: (963) PITTSBURGH (+$112) over Florida
(Listing Maholm and Hendrickson)
(Risking $200 to win $224)
1 STAR: (951) SAN FRANCISCO (+$163) over Milwaukee
(Listing Correia and Parra)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
BIO-RHYTHM PLAY
1 STAR: (967) TAMPA BAY (+$214) over NY Yankees
(Listing Jackson and Pettitte)
(Risking $100 to win $214)
NBA
3 STAR: (803) ATLANTA (+6) over Philadelphia
(Risking $330 to win $300)
Ethan Law
2% SAN FRANCISCO +$165
2% OAKLAND +$140
1% SEATTLE -$110
1% SEATTLE (-1.5) +$145
SF: RHP Kevin Correia (4-7, 3.45 ERA in 2007)
at
MIL: LHP Manny Parra (0-1, 3.76 ERA in 2007)
Well we are less then one week into the young baseball season but one thing is already clearthe Giants just stink. We could certainly be much harsher in our words choices when we describe actually how bad this team appears to be, but we need to keep in the back of our minds that these terrible teams will in all likelihood also be our best money-makers when the season is all said and done. The reason these bad teams are money makers is the fact that the odds makers will continue to adjust and over inflate in the lines against the bad team creating some wonderful betting value for the opportunistic and educated bettor. We all witnessed what happened yesterday when Milwaukee thrashed San Francisco 13-4 in yesterdays game and as soon as that game became final I immediately circled todays contest as a possible play on for San Francisco. The as expected the opening line came out in this contest, and not to my surprise they made Milwaukee a -$190 chalk for the second game in the series. While Im not even going to try to make a case comparing these teams from an offensive standpoint, we cannot ignore the very fact that on paper, San Francisco does come into today with a fundamental edge with todays listed starting pitchers and we also can take solace in the fact that even the very worst teams in the league will still win 45-55 games on the season. Milwaukee will send left-hander Manny Parra to the hill today. Parra who is taking the spot of injured left-hander Chris Capauno started off this spring in impressive fashion (when most of the everyday players were not playing) posting an impressive 2-0 mark with a 0.54 earned run average. But after surrendering 10 hits and eight runs in 3 2/3 innings against Kansas City, Parra had another rough outing against Colorado, surrendering four first-inning runs and five overall in just three innings of work. At a minimum, that inconsistency is not the type of confidence building performance any bettor should consider especially when you consider he is a young pitcher, with relatively no big league experience and you have to lay almost 1-2 on your money! As bad as San Francisco was last season (and this season) they are at their best against left-handers where they averaged close to 5 runs per game last season. San Francisco will counter with a young right-hander in Kevin Correia who has never opened a Major League season in a starting rotation until now. However, unlike Parra, he has significantly more big league experience as he earned his shot by finishing an impressive 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in eight starts at the conclusion of last season. In slightly more than three years in the Majors, Correia has made 27 starts and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 22 of them! Thats simply remarkablewhat minute what is the line on this game? The -$190 price tag installed on this Milwaukee team is completely unjustified especially when you consider that the true line should be somewhere in the neighborhood -$115. My score forecasting models have San Francisco scoring between 3-5 to 4 runs and Milwaukee to score between 3.7-4.2 runs. Despite the fact that my models have Milwaukee winning this game but about 0.3 of a run, we cannot ignore the value we are getting today, which makes this play almost a no brainer.
Aside from the obvious and egregiously high line set in this contest, this selection is also not without some technical support in favor of San Francisco. I uncovered a total of 38 trends favoring both sides in this contest and San Francisco trends outnumbered Brewers by almost 2-1. Some highlights of some of the more powerful technical numbers show that the Giants are an impressive 23-16 +$1010 against good offensive national teams (that score more then 4.8 runs per game) over the last 2 seasons and San Francisco wins those games by an average of 1.1 run per game. The Giants also seem to relish the role of being a substantial underdog as they are 38-35 +$1840 as an underdog of +125 to +185 over the last 3 seasons. The average score in those contests was San Francisco 4.9, opponent 4.6. Meanwhile, the Brewers seem to struggle against poor teams as they are a poor 80-96 -$3200 when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. San Francisco is also 18-8 +$1430 in all games since 1997 where todays starting pitcher has taken the hill and they have won those games by an average of 1.2 runs per game. Correia also saw his team go 18-8 +$1430 in games played on a grass field since 1997. If we factor in every trend I uncovered favoring both teams, we conclude that historically San Francisco has about a 68% chance to win this game. You dont have to put a gun to my head when I am given that kind of historical backing. Take the Giants and pray they can score 4-5 runs against the young and inexperienced left-hander (which is their average over the last 3 seasons against left-handers) because that should be all they will need!
Verdict: San Francisco 5, Milwaukee 3
PLAY 2% ON SAN FRANCISCO +$165
CLE: LHP C.C. Sabathia (0-0, 8.44 ERA)
at
OAK: LHP Dana Eveland (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
These are the types of games that we will ride most of the season and we will ultimately turn profit despite the fact that we will ultimately lose more then we win over the course of the season. Although we have not gotten off to the same start we had last season, you need to understand our goal and that is to simply identify the selections that not only have the most value, but games in which also have the best chance of squeaking out a win given the price. Whenever the line is set at -$150 or higher, we know that going into these wagers that we are expected to have less than a 50% chance to come away with the win. But thats where I tend to excel and that is to identify selections with a high line value and ones that give us the best chance to win. With that said, we are going to turn our attention to playing against the Cleveland Ace left-hander C.C. Sabathia when he faces off against a relatively unknown Athletics hurler in Dana Eveland. Eveland was one of the top prospects acquired from the Dan Haren-to-Arizona trade and rest assured this guy has the potential to be a very solid big league hurler. This will be his first start of the season and he coming in off a very impressive and confidence building spring training season. In his last start of the spring, Eveland allowed only one earned run on three hits with three strikeouts in 6 inning of work. Overall, the youngster posted a 1.20 ERA in 15 spring innings along with a tidy 14:4 strikeout to walk Ratio. I also took a look back at Evelands minor league career, which shows that when he was healthy he has been dominant at every level. In his minor league career his career numbers are impressive, 2.61 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a .98 strikeout Rate. Now some would believe that having to face the AL Central winners is not a good spot for his first outing of the season, but I nevertheless believe that Eveland should find success against this Indian team that despite showing a profit in road/night games against left-handers +$330; they are nevertheless a team who has struggled offensively averaging just over 4 runs per game in this setting. Cleveland will counter with their Ace left-hander in C.C. Sabathia. Sabathias resume cannot be questioned nor will I even attempt to try to convince you that he is not one of the top pitchers in the American League if not all of baseball. However, he is off a very surprising first outing who let a 7-2 lead disappear against the offensively challenged White Sox this past Monday. In just 5.1 inning of work, the Cleveland left-hander allowed five runs on six hits. What was alarming about that performance is the fact that Chicago went into that contest averaging only 3.1 runs per game against left-handed pitching. In comparison tonight opponent, Oakland had done their best work against left-handed pitching where they were 12-8 at home against the left-handers with an offense that averaged over 5.5 runs per game! It also helps when you consider that Sabathia has historically not performed well when pitching against Oakland as his 2-5 mark against Oakland and his high ERA of 5.98 and a WHIP of 1.596 indicates. Sabathia has even performed worse at McAfee Stadium where he is 1-3 with a whopping 7.17 ERA. Indeed, the Indians team record in all games he started against Oakland is a poor 4-8 -$380 units.
I have spent the last couple of hours crunching my numbers in this contest and for the life of me am trying to figure out why the odds maker set the line at only -$160 for the visitor. Now I have preached in every analysis I have written to date that I look for value in the line, but here I am finding myself almost doing the exact opposite as I set the line here in the neighborhood of -$190. So my natural inclination would almost be to take Cleveland in the dark based on the value of the line. But something I have learned in now my eight year of handicapping games is that in order to win year in and year out you have to continually change the way that you handicap in order to stay ahead of the odds makers. To be sure, I walked away from my computer (took a hour break) because I was worried that I was over analyzing this selection. In the end, I decided I was going in the right direction and we are going to stick with my original gut reaction in this contest. The reason, we know the betting public is enamored betting the favorites and specifically Ace pitchers of the best teams. My theory is that the odds makers are setting this line and begging for public money on Cleveland. Perhaps what we know, and they dont is the fact that Oakland seems to struggle against the lesser opponents they face throughout the season as over the past three seasons Oakland is 10-9 +$150 in all games against Cleveland. Oakland has performed even better at home game against Cleveland where they are an impressive 6-3 +$250 over the last 3 seasons. Getting to some team trends, Cleveland is a poor 3-10 -$1280 in road games when playing against a team whose winning percentage is less then 38% over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is also a miserable 3-10 -$1200 in road games against American league teams who score less than 4.2 runs per game over the last 3 seasons, where they are losing by an average of over 2 runs. In comparison, Oakland has excelled against some of the better teams in the league as they are 50-31 +$2750 against teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The athletics are also 55-46 +$2070 against teams who out score their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game over the last 3 seasons. Clevelands manager also has some negative technicals worth mentioning as the Cleveland skipper is 61-73 -$2080 when playing on Saturday contests; 14-23 -$1640 in road games against opponents with weak offenses who score 4.2 runs or less per game as the manager of the Indians. Some very powerful stuff especially considering the nice underdog price we are getting on the home team. Take the As and pray!
Verdict: Cleveland 3, Oakland 5
PLAY 2% ON OAKLAND +$140
SEA: RHP Miguel Batista (16-11, 4.29 ERA in 2007)
at
BAL: LHP Adam Loewen (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Well guys I am extremely disappointed in the pitching change made, changed and then changed again. in retrospect we should have just cancelled the play, but in the end I have no excuses. Nevertheless, tonight is definitely a pitching match-up we can take advantage of with Baltimore throwing their left-hander. The very fact that we lost our selection last night on Seattle does give us some additional value to tonights play so I really hope we can get back what we lost in this match-up. Tonight Seattle will send right-hander Miguel Batista Washburn to the hill and that isnt very good news for this Baltimore team as they have struggled mightily against right-handers last season where they posted a poor 50-66 mark -$810. To make matter worse they did most of their losing in their home ballpark where they were a poor 25-32 -$860 against right-handers and their offense managed only 4.5 runs per game. The fact that Baltimore struggles when matched-up against a right-hander isnt in and of itself a reason to warrant a selection, but I want to make something clear, Seattles starting pitcher is not your typical number 5 starter. Indeed, despite being classified as their #5 starter, Batista was the staff leader in wins last season with 16, and the right-hander had a team-leading 18 quality starts in '07. Batista has also been on the clubs most profitable hurlers as Seattle is 38-27 +$1630 in all games he started over the last 2 seasons. Batista has also performed admirably on the road as Seattle has won 20 of 32 games in which he started +$1400 over the last 2 seasons. Batista is also an impressive 25-13 +$1330 when playing on Saturday since 1997 and his teams average margin of victory is 1.8 runs per game. Baltimore will counter with left-hander Adam Loewen, whose presence on the mound is fantastic news for Seattle backers as he is an inexperienced pitcher, pitching in just his second major league outing and he must face a Seattle team that absolutely decimated left-handed pitching in all setting last season where they posted an impressive 28-13 mark +$1730 with an offense that averaged over 5.2 runs per game! Although not much is known with this rookie, we do know that in his only other major league outing he allowed an average of a whopping 15.6 runners to reach base per nine innings. That's over a third more then his counterpart.
Moving to the technical aspect of this selection I uncovered 42 trends with an average winning percentage of 71% for Seattle; and only 9 trends with an average winning percentage of 56% that would favor Baltimore in this situational setting. To say the above is technical domination is perhaps the understatement of the year. Since there are so many of them, I will simply highlight the more important ones before we lock up this selection. First, we can bet with confidence that Seattle has had their way with Baltimore as they are 13-7 +$420 over the last 3 seasons and even more impressive they are 7-3 +410 at Camden Yards over the last 3 seasons after last night loss. Then we turn our attention to team trends on Baltimore and their inability to succeed in the role of an underdog as they are a horrific 74-141 -$3790 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons where they are losing by an average of 1.5 runs per game. Even more egregious, is the fact that Baltimore is get this 6-27 -$1830 as a home underdog of +115 to +175 over the last 3 seasons where they are losing by an average of 2.5 runs per game!!!!! WOW! Lets hope last night was a deviation and Seattle return to form in a bog way tonight!
Verdict: Seattle 9, Baltimore 2
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON SEATTLE -$110;
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON SEATTLE (-1.5) +$145
Any IndianCowboy? Thanks.
Not yet but I will post when I see it. 😉
Delaney's "RED ALERT"
100* MEMPHIS
Rocketman
Opinions - UNC, UCLA
3* Buffalo Sabres
3* Padres
3* Mariners
Tony Matthews
15* UCLA
Keith Martin Sports
Final HAMMER play of the CBB season
UCLA OVER
Lockline Sports
Opinions Only
Ucla
Kansas
Joe Wiz
Red Sox
Rockies
Lock of the Day
GOY North Carolina
#1 Sports Lock
North Carolina
Michael Cannon
50 Dime
UCLA
Take Ucla over Memphis tonight in the first game of the Final Four.
The wrong team is favored here folks, there’s no question about it.
Ucla is without question more solid in all phases of the game, including offense. I know the Bruins have struggled at times to put points on the board, but believe me they are going to put a clinic on against Memphis tonight.
Memphis benefited from playing in a joke of a conference, but I will grant them their due for getting to the Final Four. But when it comes time for tip off tonight, the Tigers will understand why the Bruins are the most accomplished defensive team in the country.
Memphis thrives on its dribble-drive motion offense, in which it overwhelms its opponent with constant penetrations into the defense until their opponent yields a lay-up or an uncontested 3-pointer.
The problem Memphis is going to have tonight is Ucla’s ability to cut off the penetration with guards Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook. This will force Memphis to rely on its perimeter game and I’ll gladly take my chances with the Bruins if it comes down to that.
Ucla also has the advantage on the inside with Kevin Love.
The super-frosh has the potential to get Joey Dorsey into foul trouble, which will seriously hinder the Tigers’ chances of winning this game.
Ucla may not be the best shooting team left in the tournament, but their defense and fundamentals are so sound under coach Ben Howland it’s hard not to like them as the small dog here.
The final dagger against Memphis is its always controversial foul shooting. I know the Tigers shut all their critics up by nailing 30 of 36 from the charity stripe against Texas, but that’s an aberration. This is still the same team that shot 59 percent from the foul line for the season.
I like Ucla to control the pace of this game tonight, and as a result I like them to pull away in the second half.
Take the Bruins as they move on to the championship Monday night.
20 Dime
NORTH CAROLINA
Take the Tarheels as the small chalk tonight over the Jayhawks.
Two great teams squaring off here, no question about it.
But North Carolina is playing too solid right now for me to go against them. They’ve won all four of their tournament games by double digits, and truth be told they looked in control in every single one of those games from the opening tip.
Now, you could argue that Louisville had the momentum in the second half of last week’s 83-73 loss to the Tarheels, but the thing that struck me the most about that game was how hard Louisville had to work just to get back in the game, and then Carolina would just jump back out to a six or seven-point lead just like that.
It seemed almost effortless for North Carolina to thwart the momentum of the Cardinals and get back in control of the game.
Kansas looked tight to me in last week’s two-point win over Davidson. The Jayhawks played like they didn’t want to lose instead of forcing the tempo of the game like the Tarheels have done each time out.
I know Kansas likes to run, but they would be foolish to try and do so against North Carolina. First of all, the Tarheels can outrun any team in the country.
There’s no question about that.
Secondly, if Kansas tries to run when Sasha Kahn is on the floor, they will get buried. Kahn cannot keep up with Tyler Hansbrough and I would love to see him try. Kahn has been a spark off the bench for Kansas, but he’s out of his element here tonight.
I could fill the rest of this analysis with pointspread streaks that North Carolina is on right now, but the simple truth is North Carolina is the better team here.
They can run better than Kansas and they’re going to outrebound the Jayhawks as well. Kansas won’t be able to go on any runs here tonight because when they do score, the Tarheels will push the ball up the court and neutralize it with a quick basket on the other end.
Lay the points with North Carolina as they grab the win and cover.
5 Dime
PADRES (With Peavy as listed pitcher)
Take the Padres as the small home favorite for the win this afternoon over the Dodgers.
I know Brad Penny is getting the start for Los Angeles, but his presence only gives us a better price on the Padres.
Penny is just 3-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 14 career games against San Diego, and when you consider both teams play in pitchers' ballparks, that ERA is mighty alarming.
The Padres will counter with arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Jake Peavy.
The San Diego right-hander has sparkled with a 9-1 record and a 2.30 ERA in 18 career games against the Dodgers.
Now how can you argue against numbers like that?
You can’t.
Peavy is the better pitcher and the Padres get the home win here today.
ROYALS (With Meche as listed pitcher)
Take the Royals for the road win this afternoon over the Twins.
Kansas City has bolted out of the gates this season to an improbable 3-1 start. They could very well be 4-0, but they dropped a 4-3 decision to the Twins last night.
I like them to bounce back today behind staff ace Gil Meche.
Meche is 6-3 with a 4.05 ERA in 12 career games against Minnesota.
The Twins will counter with Livan Hernandez, who was signed to fill the void left by the departure of Johan Santana.
Hernandez isn’t even close to being the caliber of pitcher that Santana is, and the fact that he’s the No. 1 pitcher in the rotation tells you how weak the Twins are in that department this year.
Take Kansas City as they bounce back with the road win.
Ross Benjamin
20* Memphis
15* Kansas