California Sports
4-* NC/Kansas UNDER 160
3* North Carolina -3
3* Toronto Raptors
4* Cleveland -150 listing Sabathia
3* Pittsburgh +107 listing Maholm
3-G
Minnesota UNDER 8
Profile: Both starting pitchers in this game started the season off very well. Gil Meche held Detroit to three runs on eight hits on the road. Livan Hernandez played even better, only allowing 2 runs on 7 hits to the Angels while going 7 innings. Both of these teams are going to struggle to score runs this season, and it was apparent last night. These teams scored a combined 7 runs in the first few innings only to be shut out for the rest of the game. What makes this selection even more appealing is that each team’s bullpens have been dominant. In addition, Michael Cuddyer will not play in this game because of a dislocated finger. Combine poor hitting, good starting pitching, and dominant bullpens and what do you get?
Chris James Sports
3* SD
2* SF
ROOT
Chairman - Twins
Millionaire - UCLA
Money Maker - Kansas
Executive
250 Memp Tigers
250 Sixers
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER UCLA/memphis
Game: Memphis vs. UCLA
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Memphis and UCLA to finish UNDER the number. The Bruins saw their game vs. Xavier slip above the number by a basket, as the teams finished with 133 combined points. Today's total is slightly higher but I'm expecting a lower combined final score. When facing a top tier defense, the Bruins can be slowed down, as they've been held to 57 points or less in two of their past six games. Despite playing some high-scoring games in the tournament thus far, I believe that Memphis qualifies as a 'top tier defensive team' as the Tigers have still allowed just 61.1 points per game while holding opponents to just 38.8%. Five of their last nine opponents have scored less than 57 points. The Tigers have seen the UNDER go 4-1 their last five games vs. teams from the Pac-10 and 3-0 their last three tournament semi-final games, dating back to 2005. During that stretch, the UNDER is 21-6-1 when they've played a game with an over/under line in the 130s. During the same stretch, the Bruins have seen the UNDER go a profitable 27-15-1 when playing a game with an over/under line in the 130s. The Bruins have also seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played a tournament semi-final game and 10-4-1 the last 15 times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games. Last year, prior to facing Florida in the Finals, the Bruins combined with Kansas for 123 points (68-55) in a game which stayed below the number by eight points. The previous year, the Bruins faced LSU in the Final Four. The Bruins held those Tigers to only 45 points (59-45) in a game which stayed below the total by nearly 20 points. Facing a different group of Tigers, I expect the defensive-minded Ben Howland to have his team slow down the tempo once again. The Bruins, who held Mississippi Valley State to 29 points, are among the best defenses in the country and I look for them to be as intense as ever on that side of the ball today. The results from the past two rounds have given us excellent value and I look for the final combined score to fall below what I feel is a generous number. *Annihilator
KANSAS
Game: Kansas vs. North Carolina
Prediction: Kansas Reason: I'm taking the points with KANSAS. Both teams are very talented, very experienced and very well-coached. Most of the betting public loves North Carolina though, which is due largely to the fact that the Tar Heels have been blowing teams out in this tournament while the Jayhawks barely scraped by Davidson in their last matchup. Keep in mind that their previous three victories all came by double-digits. Granted, the Tar Heels have been impressive. However, they've also been helped significantly by the fact that they've been able to play their games in front of a partisan home-state crowd. They won't have that luxury this evening and they'll be facing a team which can truly matchup against them. Rugged 6'8 250lb Darnell Jackson and 6'11 Sasha Kaun give the Jayhawks a pair of big bodies in the frontcourt which can slow down Hansbrough. The Kansas backcourt is also "fully loaded" and their depth allows them to be extremely aggressive on the perimeter. That aggressive defense has allowed a mere 61.2 points per game while holding opponents to just 37.9% shooting from the field. By comparison, the Tar Heels are giving up 72.2 and allowing a 42.3% shooting percentage. Not only do the Jayhawks have a ton of depth but they've also got a ton of experience. Indeed, you have to go nine players down the Kansas scoring list before you find your first freshman. Hansbrough is a true star for UNC. Rush is no slouch for Kansas either though. He's a legit top tier talent, one which can create offense and get to the free throw line. The Jayhawks haven't been listed as underdogs this season but are 4-1 ATS the last five times they were in that role, dating back to November 2005. Most recently they won outright as +6 point dogs at Florida, which followed an outright double-digit win (as +3.5 dogs) vs. Texas. I believe the Jayhawks offer terrific value and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *Game of Year
BEN BURNS
NBA
CHARLOTTE
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats Reason: I'm taking the points with CHARLOTTE. The Celtics have been on a great run or late. However, I expect it to come to an end tonight, at least from an 'against the spread' perspective. The Bobcats have played the Celtics extremely tough this season. They lost the last game at Boston by eight points, after winning outright in their previous trip there. The game here at Charlotte resulted in a 1-point win by the Celtics. Not surprisingly, the Bobcats were 3-0 ATS in those games. That brings them to a profitable 9-1 ATS in 10 series meetings since 2005. The Bobcats won last night, earning their fifth win in eight games. Note that only one of the three losses came by more than four points. While the playoffs are a virtual impossibility, the team continues to fight hard. As guard Jason Richardson, who had 27 points last night, had to say: "We know that it's getting close to getting teams eliminated from the playoffs, but we still got team goals that we want to accomplish and we are going to play hard until the last game of the season." With the Bobcats off a game last night, the betting public will be quick to write them off here. However, the Celts are expected to be without Paul Pierce and the Bobcats have actually played quite well when playing the second of back to back games. In fact, they're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five in that situation, including outright wins over the Warriors, Wizards, Blazers and Lakers. Look for them to continue to fight hard as they give the Celts a tougher game than expected once again, improving on their strong numbers in the series. *Best Bet
UNDER Hawks/76ers
Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Philadelphia and ATLANTA to finish UNDER the number. These teams played a high-scoring game at Atlanta last night, finishing with 213 combined points. However, as we've seen numerous times in recent weeks, the second game of these home and home sets is often played at a much different tempo from the first. I expect that to be the case this evening. Looking back at this season's earlier two meetings and we find that the other game at Atlanta produced just 187 points while the game here at Philadephia finished with a mere 167. That brought the UNDER to 7-5 the last 12 series meetings here. A closer look shows that nine of those 12 games finished with 207 points or less and that this is the highest over/under line for any game during that stretch. The 76ers have played three home games, after playing the previous night, since the beginning of March. Those three games averaged just 187 points and all three finished with less than 200. The most recent came here against New Jersey last weekend. The over/under line was 201.5 but the teams combined for just 178. Looking back at the last 20 times that the 76ers played the second of back to back games and we find that only three of those games produced more than 205 combined points. With much on the line, I look for better defense than we saw last night and for the final combined score to stay below that mark once again. *Blue Chip
BEN BURNS
NHL
CANUCKS
Game: Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks Reason: I'm playing on VANCOUVER. The Canucks were eliminated from playoff contention in their last game, suffering a disappointing 1-goal loss to the Oilers. Most will assume that they no longer care and won't bother showing up tonight. However, I expect the opposite to be true. For starters, the Canucks really dislike the Flames and they know that they'll hurt their playoff seeding by beating them tonight. Next, while the Flames have bigger games ahead, this will be the Canucks' last game of the season - and also the last as this particular group - as there will surely be several offseason changes. Additionally, with the pressure off, teams that just got eliminated from the playoff race, often surprise people by playing well in their next game. The Canucks can attest to that, as Thursday's 2-1 loss came at the hands of an Edmonton team which had just been knocked out of the playoff race in its previous game. The Oilers were dealing with injuries and hadn't won at Vancouver in ages. Yet, with the pressure off and the chance to do some 'spoiling,' they came through with their best effort. The Canucks are 11-6 (+4.7) this season after scoring one goal or less in their previous game and 33-20 (+12.6) in that situation the past three seasons. They're also 5-1 the last six times they hosted the Flames, including 3-0 this season. Look for them to show some pride and close out the season with a victory for the home fans. *Main Event
BEN BURNS
BASEBALL
MARLINS
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins
Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Marlins won a thriller last night, recording their second walk-off home run of the season. I expect them to carry that momentum into today's game. The stats show that starter Mark Hendrickson got rocked in his Opening Day start. However, keep in mind that was against the powerful Mets, not the Pirates. Also, a closer look shows that Hendrickson was actually cruising in that start and pitched very well except for a disastrous fourth inning. Additionally, note that Hendrickson, 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against Pittsburgh over his career, was very sharp in spring training, recording a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings. Maholm, who was 4-8 with a 6.14 ERA (opoosing batters hit .328!) on the road last season, was also relatively solid in spring training - although not nearly as dominant as Hendrickson. However, it should be noted that he missed his last spring start due to an ailing lower back. With yesterday's loss, the Pirates are now 14-31 (-15.1) the last 45 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. During that stretch, they've gone just 39-61 (-17.2) in 100 games against left-handed starters. The Marlins are now 7-3 the last 10 times they hosted the Pirates and 13-7 the last 20. Behind a well-pitched game from Hendrickson, look for them to improve on those stats this evening.
PADRES
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres Reason: I'm laying the price with SAN DIEGO. The Dodgers ended up with an easy win yesterday. With their ace on the mound, I expect the Padres to return the favor this afternoon. Peavy, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, was dominant in his 2008 debut, allowing just three hits through seven shutout innings. Peavy is now 5-0 with a 0.73 ERA in his last seven starts at Petco Park. He has also absolutely owned the Dodgers here, going 4-0 (Padres were 6-0) with a 1.22 ERA in six career starts. Overall, he is 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 18 career starts against LA. The Dodgers haven't beaten him personally since 2003 and the Padres are 10-1 his last 11 starts in the series. Of course, Penny is no slouch either and he's also coming off a strong performance in his first start. However, unlike Peavy, he hasn't had much success in this series. In fact, he's just 3-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 14 career starts against the Padres and he hasn't beaten them since 9/11/05. Oddly, he's particulary struggled at Petco Park, going 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA. While the Padres are 25-13 the last 38 times they played a game with an over/under line of seven or less, the Dodgers are just 5-9 in that situation, during the same period. That includes an 0-3 mark on the road. Looking back further and we find that the Dodgers are a money-burning 26-39 (-10.3) the last 65 times that they played a road game with an over/under line of seven or less. Peavy outdueled Oswalt in his opener. Look for him to now outpitch Penny, continuing his dominance of the Dodgers in this park. *Personal Favorite
SPRITZER
final 4 goy...................nc
tko...........................ucla
tko...........................sixers
COKIN
total.......................nc over 60
window..................kansas
3*.........................ucla
3*.........................bulls
FEIST
ncaa tourney goy..................nc
total......................nc over 60
personal best..................memph
5*.........................memph over
total.......................nets over
inner circle....................kings
5*.............................bulls
Wunderdog
Orlando at Cleveland
Pick: First Half UNDER 97 -110
Two playoff teams collide in Cleveland this afternoon with seeding implications and we expect an intense, defense-laden game. Orlando has gone UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Cleveland has gone OVER in back-to-back games after going UNDER in seven of eight. We like the odds of Cleveland avoiding a third-straight weak defensive effort after giving up 215 points in the past two. Over their past five games, the Magic have held opponents to 45 points per game in the first half and Cleveland has been all about defense vs. elite teams, especially at home. We see this one coming in UNDER 97 in the first half when the sting of the past two games is strongest for Cleveland and the intensity is the highest.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB
KC-107 (meche) 2 units
Sports Bank 500* Final Four Game Of Year
Kansas
Preferred Picks
5* Ucla
Keith Martin Memphis Over 133.5
WildBill North Carolina -3.0
kingggsports North Carolina -3.0
Cash n Profit Los Angeles Dodgers 141
Jeff Scott Sports Milwaukee Brewers -179
JEFF MONEY 76ers -5.5
seeyouinthewinnerscircle North Carolina -3.0