The Sports Advisors
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (6-5) at L.A. Dodgers (4-6)
The Padres’ Chris Young (1-0, 2.13 ERA) squares off against Derek Lowe (0-0, 2.25) for the second time in a week, this time at Dodger Stadium as these N.L. West rivals continue their three-game weekend series.
San Diego outlasted Los Angeles 7-5 on Friday night, snapping a modest two-game losing skid. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, who got swept at Arizona earlier in the week, have now lost four straight games since starting the season 4-2.
The Dodgers, who took two of three in San Diego last weekend, are still on a 4-2 run against the Padres dating to last year. Also, they’re 7-3 in Lowe’s last 10 outings, including 4-1 in his last five at home. On the downside, Joe Torre’s club is 5-16 in its last 21 games on Saturdays.
Both Young and Lowe were outstanding in Sunday’s matchup in San Diego, with Lowe giving up two runs (one earned) on five hits with a walk and six strikeouts in six innings, while Young went seven innings, surrendering two runs on five hits with three walks and eight strikeouts. However, neither was around for the decision, as the Dodgers prevailed 3-2 in 10 innings.
The Padres are 3-9 in Young’s last 12 starts overall, 0-6 in his last six on the road and 1-6 in his last seven against N.L. West foes. However, they’re 8-3 in his last 11 as an underdog.
Young, who gave up one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 2-1 home win over the Astros in his debut, was a much different pitcher on the road last year (5-6, 4.52 ERA) than he was at home (4-2, 1.69). Not surprisingly, then, he was dominant in his one home start against the Dodgers in 2007 (seven scoreless innings, three hits allowed in a 1-0 win), and not as strong in two starts in L.A. (1-1, 6.75 ERA).
For his career, Young is 1-2 despite a sterling 2.92 ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers (1-1, 4.05 ERA in L.A.). However, San Diego is 4-1 in Young’s five starts at Dodger Stadium.
Lowe has given up just three earned runs on 14 hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts in his first two starts of 2008, going six innings in each outing. Last year, he went 6-6 with 3.51 ERA at home.
Including Sunday’s outing, Lowe is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 career starts against the Padres, giving up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 outings versus his rivals from the south. The last four times Lowe has faced San Diego at home, he’s posted a 1.84 ERA, but Los Angeles went just 2-2 in those contests.
The under is 5-1 in Lowe’s last six starts overall and 8-0-1 in Young’s last nine on Saturdays. However, the over is 22-7-1 in San Diego’s last 30 road games (2-2 this year), and the over is 8-3 in the last 11 series meetings at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (6-5) at Boston (5-6)
Josh Beckett (0-1, 9.64) makes his second start of the season, and his first at Fenway Park, when he leads the Red Sox against Mike Mussina (1-1, 3.09) and the Yankees in the middle game of this weekend set between hated rivals.
Behind a masterful complete-game, two-hit performance from Chien-Ming Wang, New York took Friday’s series-opener 4-1 for its second straight win after going 1-4 in its last five. Also, the Yankees are now on a 7-1 in this rivalry, winning five of the last seven at Boston. Going back to 2006, New York is 12-5 in the last 17 clashes at Fenway.
Boston has dropped five of its last seven overall and is 0-5 in its last five against the American League East and 0-5 in its last five against right-handed starters.
Both teams have excelled on Saturdays recently, with the Yankees going 8-2 in the last 10 and Boston posting a 19-7 mark in its last 26. However, the Red Sox are on streaks of 20-9 at home (2-2 this year) and 36-17 as a favorite (4-5 this year), while New York is still only 6-11 in its last 17 as a ‘dog.
Beckett, who started the season on the disabled list because of back stiffness, got rocked for five runs on just three hits in 4 2/3 innings in his debut Sunday in Toronto, losing 7-4. Last year, Beckett went 9-5 with a 4.17 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway Park (not including playoffs), compared with 11-2, 2.18 ERA in 13 road outings.
Beckett is 4-3 with a 6.56 ERA in his eight career starts against the Yankees, going 2-1 with a 4.39 ERA in four starts last year.
After getting hit hard in his debut against the Blue Jays (four runs, eight hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-2 home loss), Mussina looked like his old self in Sunday’s 6-1 home win over the Rays, allowing just a run on two hits and one walk in six innings. Last year, Mussina went 4-5 with a 5.48 ERA in 14 starts on the highway.
Mussina got pummeled in two starts against the Red Sox last year, allowing 12 runs on 19 hits in 11 2/3 innings, with the Yanks losing 7-3 at home and 11-6 at Fenway. For his career, the veteran right-hander is 19-15 with a 3.66 ERA in 52 starts versus Boston, including 10-7 with a 3.73 ERA at Fenway Park.
Although last night’s contest stayed well under the total, the over is still 21-6 in the last 27 series meetings between these rivals, 6-2 in Beckett’s last eight starts versus New York (4-0 at home) and 5-2 in Mussina’s last seven outings against the Sox. Furthermore, the over is on streaks of 24-9-3 for the Yankees as an underdog, 9-3 for Mussina overall, 5-0 for Mussina as a road underdog, 13-3 for Boston on Saturday and 6-3 for Boston as a home favorite. Conversely, the Yankees have stayed under the total in seven straight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Boston (62-16, 48-28-2 ATS) at Atlanta (36-42, 36-41-1)
The Hawks continue their postseason push when they host the mighty Celtics, needing a victory to stay two games ahead of the Pacers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta bounced back from Tuesday’s costly 112-98 loss at Indiana with last night’s 116-104 rout at New York, easily covering as a 6½-point road chalk. The Hawks, who haven’t reached the playoffs since 1999, are 11-4 in their last 15 games (9-6 ATS), including 6-1 at home (4-3 ATS). Both Atlanta and Indiana have three games to play, but the Pacers hold the tiebreaker edge.
Boston, which long ago clinched the Atlantic Division and the top seed in the Eastern Conference, blasted the Bucks 102-86 last night, barely covering as a 15-point home chalk. The Celtics are 8-1 in their last nine games (7-2 ATS), with the only loss being Wednesday’s 109-95 defeat at Washington.
The Celtics have handled the Hawks twice this season, both times in Boston, winning 106-83 as a 9½-point favorite and 98-88, falling just shy as an 11½-point chalk. The home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings (3-1 ATS). Also, the underdog has cashed in six of the past nine clashes.
Boston sports a bunch of positive ATS trends, including 15-5 overall, 46-19-1 on the road, 20-7 on Saturdays, 8-3 against the Eastern Conference and 27-10-1 when playing on back-to-back nights (12-5-1 ATS on back-to-backs this year). The lone negative: The C’s are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Southeast Division.
Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four on back-to-back nights, but just 3-6 ATS in its last nine as an underdog.
The over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings in Atlanta, 11-4 in the Hawks’ last 15 overall, 5-0 in the Hawks’ last five at home and 7-3 in the Hawks’ last 10 when playing on no rest. However, the under is 2-0 in the two head-to-head battles this season and 5-2 in Boston’s last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Denver (48-31, 43-36 ATS) at Utah (52-27, 44-35 ATS)
The Nuggets try to inch closer to a playoff berth when they invade EnergySolutions Arena, where the Jazz have lost just four times in 39 games all season.
Denver scored a huge 114-105 win at Golden State as a four-point road underdog on Thursday, pulling a game ahead of the Warriors for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot. Both teams have three games to play.
The Nuggets have followed up a 1-3 SU and a 1-4 ATS slump by winning and cashing in each of the last two contests. Going back to March 12, Denver is 11-5 SU and ATS, but just 5-4 (6-3 ATS) on the road during this stretch.
Utah saw its four-game winning streak go by the wayside with Thursday’s 97-94 loss at Dallas. However, the playoff-bound Jazz cashed as a six-point underdog, improving to 7-1 ATS in their last eight, including five consecutive spread-covers.
Denver won the first meeting between these teams this year 120-109 as a three-point home chalk, but Utah has come back to take the last two, prevailing 118-115 in overtime as a two-point road underdog and 132-105 as a six-point home favorite. The Jazz are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 head-to-head tussles (4-1 SU and ATS at home), with the winner cashing in each of those contests. Finally, the favorite has gotten the money in 10 of the last 14 meetings.
Not only are the Jazz 35-4 at home, they’re 27-12 ATS, including 5-0 ATS In the last five. Going back to last season, Jerry Sloan’s squad is 35-16-1 ATS on its home floor (all as a favorite). On the downside, Utah is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on Saturday.
The Nuggets are on ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 8-3 after a spread-cover and 9-3 when playing on one day of rest. However, they’ve failed to cash in four straight Saturday outings and they’re 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 as an underdog of five to 10½ points (4-10 ATS in that role this season).
Denver has followed up a 24-8 “over” streak by staying under the number in its last two, both on the road. In fact, the under is 4-2 in its last six on the highway. Also, Utah has stayed under the total in three straight games after going over in the previous five. However, the over is still 38-15 in Denver’s last 53 divisional battles, 6-0 overall in the last six clashes between these rivals and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Salt Lake City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Mets
15 Dime Tigers
10 Dime Yankees
10 Dime 76ers
5 Dime Jazz
5 Dime Hawks
FREE - Pirates and Kings
Karl Garrett
Florida +125 at HOUSTON
I am not sure if you are aware of it, but at 7-3, the Florida Marlins are your leaders in the NL East Division. The Marlins took it to Houston's best hurler last night, and I see no reason to believe they can't get the sticks cranking against Brandon Backe again tonight.
Florida's offense has been on fire, and with Houston struggling at 3-8, can't lay the wood with the host in this spot.
Andrew Miller is a work in progress, and while he has been hit hard his first two starts, I can see this kid having success against Houston's pop-gun offense tonight at Minute Maid Park.
Even if Miller gives up a few, I expect the Marlins to bail him out with a few runs of their own against Houston pitching.
Take Florida in the underdog role as your Saturday comp play.
1* FLORIDA
Dave Cokin.
MIN Twins andKC Royals.
Take "MIN Twins"
Boof Bonser is never going to much more than a mid-rotation innings eater in my opinion, but he's sure making the effort. Bonser came to camp in much improved physical condition this year and I really like his approach as he's pitching to contact and not issuing walks. I don't mind backing Bonser and the Twins here as he's getting a price against Brett Tomko, one of those back end guys who should almost never be favored. Free play for Saturday is on the Twins."
Jim Feist.
MIN T'wolves and MEM Grizzlies.
Take "MEM Grizzlies".
You dont see the Grizzlies as a favorite often, but Memphis is 2-0 SU/ATS its last 2 as chalk. They.5?ve also been playing hard, 2-2 the last four games, even winning at Minnesota by double digits as a dog. The Timberwolves will be tired out for this game, playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Memphis is 2-1 SU/ATS against Minnesota this season and catches the T-Wolves in a bad situational spot. Play the Grizzlies!
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
You have to grab Santana at this price whenever possible. The left-hander owns a remarkable 24-4 team start record if he did not walk a batter in his previous outing, not to mention a 54-16 TSR if he allowed two runs or less in the previous outing. Brewers bats have gone silent during this three-game losing skid scoring just seven runs total. Milwaukee is just 18-44 away from home if the total is between 7 and 8.5. We can't see them solving Santana on this day.
Play on: NY Mets
Alex Smart
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox Under 9.5
The Boston Red Sox and the NY Yankess resume their rivalry here this afternoon, under the shade of the Green Monster in Fenway Park. Veteran Mike Mussina who owns a 3.66 ERA in this series will go to the hill for the Yankees, and has pitched well in two straight outings, while the BoSox will send , their ace Josh Beckett out to fire beebees at the opposition. He has looked a little tired early in the season, after being on the DL, but I expect he will be primed and much more prepared to compete today. With that said, look for both these capable pitchers, to help keep this game on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: The Yankees have gone under , in 10 of their first 11 games this season. Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games with the total set at 9-10.5 . Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games with the total set at 9-10.5. Play Under
Nelly
Chicago (Lilly) + over Philadelphia (Hamels)
The Cubs are hitting .314 against left-handed pitchers and although Cole Hamels has established himself as a top flight pitcher, the Phillies have not established themselves as an elite team. Philadelphia is just 4-6 in the first ten games of the season and the Phillies are struggling in several areas. Offensively Philadelphia is hitting just .243 as a team and the bullpen has been problematic. Hamels has pitched well in his first two starts of the season but his strikeout numbers have been down and his walk numbers have been up from last season. Ted Lilly has been the weak link in the Cubs rotation but he was exceptionally solid last season and he is capable of rebounding very quickly. Lilly and Hamels had nearly identical numbers this spring and Lilly did have to face two top offenses in his two starts so far this season while Hamels played two less threatening offenses. The Cubs have had a slow start offensively as well but Chicago is 6-3 and the team has found ways to win. Look for another close game and with great dog value the Cubs can be victorious.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Minnesota w/Bonser vs Tomko
Note: The Twins take on the Royals in Game Two of their weekend series in Kansas City when Boof Bonser takes on Brett Tomko in a rematch from last Sunday when KC prevailed, 3-1 in Minnesota. Considering at Tomko's 5.16 career ERA against the Twins prior to this season, we'll look for Bonser to get his revenge here tonight.
Greg Daraban
San Diego atLA Dodgers
Young vs Lowe
Late Night Game out West. The Padres have had the Blue Crews number the last few seasons. The Friars won last night at Dodger Stadium 7-5. Expect the very same scenario with 7 foot giant Chris Young on the bump.
Take San Diego
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Chicago Cubs (Lilly) @ Philadelphia (Hamels)
Hard pressed to go against the hot Cubbies, but they face the master of the Phillies staff here in lefty Cole Hamels. With Hamels, Philadelphia is 14-2 versus the National League Central Division and 7-1 on Saturday. In fact, struggling Philly possesses a huge edge with the Cubbies a horrid 8-20 versus LHP on the road. Philadelphia has won 11 of 16 in the series and 4 of the last 5 in Philadelphia. Lefty Hamels has been solid this season in 15 innings of work accruing a strong 1.20 ERA (1.00 WHIP), while opposing LHP Ted Lilly of Chicago files in with a 9.72 ERA in only 8 innings of work. With, hopefully, MVP Jimmy Rollins back in the lineup, the home standing Phillies gain a huge emotional edge.
Play on: Philadelphia w/Hamels only!
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: over
Reason: At 4:05pm ET our member selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants 'over' the total. It is hard to believe that Giants starter Matt Cain went 7-16 last season. After all, the 24 year-old righthander had a 3.65 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 200 innings. Unfortunately, his lopsided won-lost record does not bode well for Cain in 2008, as the Giants have a distinctly worse team than they had last year. Gone are outfielder Barry Bonds and third baseman Pedro Feliz, and the Giants relief pitching situation is totally up in the air as well. Cain's biggest problem is that he tends to leave pitches over the plate and he has paid for that on more than one occasion, especially in his home ballpark. Cardinals starter Todd Wellemeyer's success this season over his first two starts is a bit of an oddity. Through five previous seasons in the Majors (only 2007 as a starter), Wellemeyer has never had an ERA under 4 runs in any of those seasons. Last year, when Wellemeyer took over a starting role, his ERA was a very unsightly 4.54 runs and there is no real reason to believe that he will improve dramatically on that number. In the last seven games played between these two teams in San Francisco, a total of 73 runs have been scored, or an average of over 10.4 runs per game. Take the 'over'.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
Reason: Both team's have had disappointing season's and will be happy when the year is over with. The Timberwolves and Memphis both played road games last night and both won. The T'Wolves are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 3-2 SU and ATS in their last 5 games. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 trips to Memphis. The Grizzlies are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Grizzlies -.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Arizona (Haren) - 140** over Colorado (Morales)
Arizona enters on a seven game win streak including a 9-3 Haren home win over the Dodgers on 04/07, Haren allowing one earned run over six innings.
Cincinnati (Arroyo) + 105* over (at) Pittsburgh (Snell)
Pittsburgh went 1-2 in two Snell home starts vs. Cincinnati last season, by a combined 21-4 in the two losses. The Reds are 6-3 last nine games at Pittsburgh.
Kansas City (Tomko) - 115* over Minnesota (Bonser)
KC is 2-2 on the current home stand, the two wins coming over the Yankees. This pitching matchup faced off in Minnesota last week, Royals winning 3-1.
CAPPERS ACCESS
Brewers
Cubs
Wizards
Mike Rose
San Jose SaberCats +5.5
For the Sabercats to try and repeat its body of work from a year ago, they’ll have to be highly efficient on both sides of the ball since Philadelphia boasts the advantage in just about every statistical category. Philadelphia owns the #1 scoring offense in the league averaging a shade under 66 PPG, while San Jose counters with its 10th ranked defense that’s limited opponents to 56.3 PPG through its first six games. The Soul’s averaged 303 passing YPG on the road this season (#3), while San Jose limited both of its opponents at home to just 272.5 YPG (#8). San Jose will battle back with its 9th rated home offense that’s averaged 53.2 PPG in its only two outings, but Philly counters with the leagues 4th ranked road defense allowing opponents a measly 48 PPG. When the Sabercats look to the air with its 2nd ranked home passing attack at 310 YPG, it will be throwing into the teeth of the leagues 2nd ranked road defense allowing opponents just 234 YPG.
It’s not often that San Jose has been installed an underdog at home. It didn’t happen last year in their Championship season, and they were the decided favorite in their Week 4 match-up with the Dallas Desperados. In their last 13 games within the confines of the HP Pavilion, San Jose is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. As for Philadelphia, they’re 4-2 ATS their L/6 on the road.
5 unit Best Bet Dallas -6.5
3 units San Jose under 115
2 units Los Angeles over 119
SCOTT DELANEY
I have the Red Sox coming right back after last night's two-hit performance against Chien Ming Wang and the Yankees, and winning just as big as the Bombers did.
We're doing this one on the Run Line, as Josh Beckett is going to shut New York's lineup down, while the Manny, Big Papi and company are going to unleash on aging Mike Mussina.
4* RED SOX RUN LINE
TONY WESTON
Were looking at the National League West as the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare for Game 2 of their weekend series and prepare for their fifth meeting this season.
Including last nights win over the Rockies, the Diamondbacks have won seven consecutive games, including four straight games over the Rockies.
Now, Arizona turns to off-season acquisition Dan Haren to shut down the Rockies? bats. So far this year Haren is 1-0 with a no decision in 12 innings of work.
The Diamondbacks are destroying their competition in this seven-game stretch, outscoring opponents 51-18.
Arizona will lay another beat down on the Rockies and get an easy win at home.
Take the Diamondbacks.
4* DIAMONDBACKS (1* to 5* Scale)