Drew Gordon
Several things to like about the 76ers in this spot, but let's start with Friday's disappointing home loss to the Pacers, where Indiana won outright 85-76, and thoroughly embarassed Philly at the Wachovia Center. Needless to say, I expect a much better effort from this 76ers team tonight.
Worried about Philadelphia being fatigued Don't be, as the 76ers are excellent in the tail end of back-to-back games, going 14-7 ATS in that spot this season! Besides the fatigue factor, there's also the chance for Philadelphia to improve their playoff seeding, sitting 1 game back from the Wizards and the 5th spot in the East. That could be the difference between a tough match up in Detroit (if they're the # 7 seed) and a much easier match up at Cleveland possibly (if they're the # 5 seed).
Now, if you're talking about the Wizards being fatigued, there maybe some reason for concern, as the Wiz are just 8-11 ATS with no rest. They got manhandled by the Pistons in Detroit last night, losing 102-74, and now have to face-off with a highly motivated 76ers squad in this one. The Washington offense had a hell of a time against the Pistons D, and make no mistake, it won't get much easier against the 76ers, who are allowing 94 ppg over their last 5 games.
Finally, let's not forget the 76ers have been a solid bet on the road this season, going 23-15-1 ATS away. Their brand of team basketball translates well on the road, and if Young and Dalmebert can continue to complement Iguodala and Miller, the 76ers have more than enough firepower to hang with the Wizards in this one, especially considering Arenas is still nowhere near 100% (averaging 19 ppg on 38% shooting thus far this season).
Take Philadelphia plus the points over Washington in this NBA match up.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Sports Gambling Hotline
We don't think you are going to find Johan Santana at this cheap of a price too many more times this season, so we say to jump all over the Mets at this reasonable rate today at Shea Stadium.
Santana is 1-1 for the year, but has only allowed 3 earned runs in 14 innings of work. It is worth noting that both starts came on the road. This is Santana's Shea debut, and you can expect the crowd to be extra-amped for the southpaws first start in Queens.
Ben Sheets hasn't allowed an earned run through his first 2 starts this spring, but his team is just 2-5 their last 7 games played at New York, and 2-5 overall their last 7 games played against the Metropolitans.
Last night's win made it 3 in a row for New York, while Milwaukee has now lost their last 3.
Play on the Mets in this matinie special.
2* NY METS
Joel Tyson
Should be a great battle here as the Brewers and the Mets get together, and both will have their aces on the mound. Could not ask for a better pitching match up as Johan Santana will take the mound for the Mets, and will be challenged by the Brewers Ben Sheets.
Santana climbs the hill with a 1-1 season mark, and a low 1.93 ERA. Santana has allowed just three runs in 14 innings pitched over his first two Met appearances. Sheets on the other hand has been even better as he has thrown 15 1-3 innings on the year, and is yet to surrender a run. Over his two starts this year he has recorded 15 strikeouts and allowed just seven base hits.
With two pitchers performing the way these two are right now, I see no way this one gets close to the posted total.
Play the under as the score stays low.
3* UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Another pitching performance rematch with these two teams as the Padres' Chris Young (1-0, 2.13 ERA) goes to the mound at Dodger Stadium against Los Angeles' Derek Lowe (0-0, 2.25).
These two met Sunday in San Diego with neither pitcher around for the decision when the Dodgers got a ninth-inning run to beat the Padres 3-2.
Today we're banking on Young to have another stellar performance and the San Diego bats to give him a little more support than last timeThe Padres got seven runs in their 7-5 win Friday, beating Brad Penny.
Young gave up two runs and five hits over seven inning on Sunday and struck out eight in the no-decision. In his opening start of the year he held the Astros to one run on five hits in 5.2 innings of a 2-1 victory. So you see he hasn't gotten much support from the offense but will in this one.
In nine starts against Los Angeles, he's held the Dodgers to three earned runs or less in nine of them and the Padres are 5-4 in those nine. Last time he was in Dodgers' stadium he held them to two runs on seven hits in six innings of a 7-6 victory.
Lowe gave up two runs (one earned) on Sunday on five hits in six innings of work. In his last three outings against San Diego he's allowed 13 runs on 19 hits.
Let's play the Padres to get this one as Young continues to deliver solid performances and the bats get going.
4* SAN DIEGO
Great Lakes Sports
Major League Baseball Selection
Play on: Houston with Backe
The Astros are 4-2 at home vs the Florida Marlins the last three years, and are 30-28 when playing in April the last three years. The Florida Marlins are 74-92 when playing on the road the last three years, and 23-27 when playing on Saturday's the last three years. We look for the Houston Astros to grab the home win tonight.
Platinum Plays
Boston at Atlanta
This Saturday's game between Boston and Atlanta will more than likely be a preview of the Eastern Conference playoffs between these two teams. However, what you observe in this game will in no way be the same version of this matchup once the playoffs begin. The #1 seeded Boston Celtics (62-15) have already clinched the NBA Eastern Conference's top spot and will enjoy homecourt throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks (36-42) still have some work to do as of this writing. They still haven't clinched the final playoff spot in the East and lead the Indiana Pacers by two games with four remaining.
The 2008 Boston Celtics have already broken the record for biggest improvement by an NBA team in one season and are still adding on to their 38 game improvement over 2007. General Manager, Danny Ainge, completely overhauled the roster and direction of this Celtic team by trading away young and potentially great talent to aquire established veterans Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Under the direction of head coach Doc Rivers, Allen and Garnett have merged their game with holdover Paul Pierce to make the Celtics once again a contender for an NBA Championship.
Make no mistake, the Hawks are an improving team and have done so mostly through the draft. When a team is in the lottery year after year, it really should start improving with the infusion of highly rated young talent. However, using the Celtics as an example, you can have all the young talent in the world, but if they don't learn to sacrifice parts of their game for the good of the team, they'll never seriously contend for a title. Veteran G Joe Johnson (21.9 ppg) leads this young Hawks team in scoring, and rookie Al Horford leads the team in rebounding with 9.6 boards per game. The Hawks made a deadline deal to bring in veteran point guard Mike Bibby, however, the results of that trade are negligible. Atlanta should qualify for the playoffs, something this team hasn't done in this century, and that's the first step towards building for the future. We'll see how far these young guys can take this franchise.
The Celtics have had the luxury of resting their veterans and getting playing time for the bench, which will play dividends down the road. The Hawks can't afford to take a night off if they hope to clinch the final playoff spot in the East. While letting Garnett, Allen and Pierce recharge their batteries for the playoffs, the Celtics just can't help but winning.
Free winner from Platinum Plays: The advanced line for this game is Boston by 7 points. The Hawks are inconsistent and will have to lay it on the line, while Doc Rivers won't want to show any secrets for the playoffs, and his team probably prefers to play the Hawks over the Pacers when the playoffs start. Platinum prediction for this game is take the Atlanta Hawks plus the 7 points and then watch the Celtics sweep them mercifully in the 1st round of the NBA Eastern Conferernce playoffs.
ARMVIN SPORTS
NHL
BOSTON at MONTREAL Under 5
MLB
WASHINGTON NATIONALS +161
Matt Fargo
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
Detroit took the opener last night and at 2-8, the Tigers are still being completely overvalued. A win was nice but until this team becomes more consistent and starts putting a run together, it will be a fade. The offense is starting to come around but the last three games came against some weak starting pitching and while tonight’s Chicago starter could be lumped into that category, there are reasons he is not as explained later. The Tigers are still pressing.
The White Sox had won five straight games before dropping the last two. I can expect them to turn that around tonight at a great price on their field. They have won their last four games as an underdog and this will be the first instance of a dog price at home. The White Sox offense has cooled down but they are still averaging a solid 5.8 rpg on the season and have the chance to once again to take out Justin Verlander. Chicago has won 12 of the last 17 in this series.
The Tigers send Verlander to the hill and that is part of the reason Detroit is a road favorite. He did not pitch very well against Kansas City in his opening start, allowing four runs in six innings. He followed that up with an even worse performance against the White Sox on Sunday. Chicago has given him fits as he is 1-5 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine career starts against the White Sox. The Tigers are just 2-7 in those eight starts and it is obviously a mental thing at this point.
Chicago counters with Gavin Floyd who has already tamed the Tigers once this season, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings of work. Floyd came up as a huge prospect but it has not panned out. He still has a lot of potential as he has just 30 starts in his résumé. He has faced five teams three or more times in his career and has a combined ERA of 5.89 over almost 95 innings. Detroit is one of those teams but he has a 3.03 ERA in five starts against the Tigers while never losing. Play Chicago White Sox 1 Units
BEN BURNS
St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Under
REASON FOR PICK: Wellemeyer has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals thus far, recording a 2.25 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. He pitched well last time out but got outdueled by Wandy Rodriguez, a game which stayed below the number. He faces another tough pitching opponent in Matt Cain today and I'm expecting another well-pitched affair. Note that Wellemeyer tossed five shutout innings, allowing only two hits, in his only previous start against the Giants, a game which also fell below the total. Including that start, the UNDER is 6-2 in Wellemeyer's last eight starts, dating back to last season.
Cain wasn't at his best last time out, losing vs. San Diego. He had a 3.48 ERA in 17 starts here last season though, so I'm willing to cut him some slack, particularly given that he went 5 2/3 shutout innings in his first start (vs. the Dodgers) while allowing only three hits. Note that Cain closed out last season by pitching seven or more innings in five of his final seven home starts, going six complete in the other two. Its also worth mentioning that he didn't allow more than three earned runs in any of those games, allowing just eight earned runs in his final 40 innings (1.80 ERA) pitched here. Additionally, note that Cain held opposing hitters to a .231 average in his 2007 daytime starts, recording a solid 3.52 ERA.
Unfortunately for Cain, he often doesn't get much run support from a Giants lineup which currently ranks last (2.5) in runs scored. While his last start finished above the total, Cain has still seen the UNDER go 12-3 his last 15 starts, dating back to last July. Having the advantage of making his first start against the Cards, look for Cain to be at his best this afternoon, improving on his impressive 'under stats.'
MLB DUNKEL
Colorado at Arizona
The Diamondbacks ran their win streak to seven straight with a victory over Colorado last night and look to stretch that today behind starter Dan Haren, who picked up his first win for Arizona in his last start. The D-Backs are the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has Arizona favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-140). Here are all of today's games.
SATURDAY, APRIL 12
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Smoltz) 15.151; Washington (Lannan) 13.650
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Sheets) 15.150; NY Mets (Santana) 15.092
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Under
Game 905-906: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 14.503; Arizona (Haren) 16.714
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-140); Under
Game 907-908: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.618; San Francisco (Cain) 14.381
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Under
Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.736; Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.838
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under
Game 911-912: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Miller) 14.701; Houston (Backe) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over
Game 913-914: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.038; Philadelphia 15.203
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over
Game 915-916: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 14.816; LA Dodgers (Lowe) 14.594
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under
Game 917-918: Detroit at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 13.929; White Sox (Floyd) 15.034
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 14.899; Boston (Beckett) 15.347
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under
Game 921-922: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Dinardo) 15.367; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.825
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Bonser) 15.343; Kansas City (Tomko) 15.400
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-125); Under
Game 925-926: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Cabrera) 15.834; Tampa Bay (Hammel) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over
Game 927-928: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 16.317; Texas (Mendoza) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Under
Game 929-930: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Garland) 14.863; Seattle (Silva) 15.046
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Under
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Jazz
2. 50,000* Royals
3. 50,000* LA Angels
Ethan Law
FLA: LHP Andrew Miller (0-1, 12.91) at HOU: RHP Brandon Backe (0-1, 3.27)
Verdict: Florida 4, Houston 8
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON HOUSTON -$130;
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON HOUSTON (-1.5) +$155
Cajun-Sports
NBA Super Situation Winner for Saturday
Game: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards -4
Grade: THREE-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)
Reason: Washington is in a battle with Toronto and the 76ers for playoff positioning and they have both been playing well of late. With the return of Antawn Jamison who torched the Celtics on Wednesday for 27 points and the play of DeShawn Stevenson, Brendon Haywood and of course Caron Butler who is averaging 20.6 points per game we feel they have more than enough offense even if Arenas is unable to play to take down the 76ers here. They are coming off a game last night in Detroit but the Wizards have been somewhat successful playing in back-to-backs in the second game as long as they are at home. Washington also has an underrated bench which will benefit them here as they get the win and cover. Technical situations signal a formula for wagering success with Washington as well. The first says to Play On NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a straight up loss vs an opponent as a road favorite, with a team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, 62-30 ATS since 2002. The second situation says to Play On NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after covering the spread by thirty or more points total in their last three games, during the second half of the season, 50-22 ATS since 2002. Combine our technical with our situational support and it points to a Wizards win and cover so lay the short price here.
John Ryan
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SF - SF is certainly one of the worst teams – if not the worst team – in MLB, but they have a great opportunity for a win with Cain on the hill. SF is is 57-24 (+28.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus a NL team with an on base percentage of .350 or better since 1997. Skipper Bochy is 25-18 +16.9 units when facing a NL team allowing 3.3 RPG on the season. Although 4-7 on the season, the Giants are 3-2 in home games. Let’s remember though that the reason we are making any play I release is directly connected to the Ai Simulator grading. The host of systems and angles serve to reinforce the grading and are NOT the dominant reason for the play. Take the Giants.
MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
JUNIOR'S PICK
New York Yankees -108
DIGGER'S PICK
Atlanta Hawks -5
HAWKER'S PICK
Cincinnati/Pittsburg - Over 9.5