TEDDY COVERS
Orlando Predators -Georgia Force UNDER 113 / 4 units
Georgia and Orlando have a long history of defensive struggles. We’ve got a pair of well respected, veteran head coaches that understand the importance of clock management and possession timing at the end of each half in Doug Plank for the Force and Jay Gruden for the Predators. In the first meeting between these two teams this year, 95 points were scored. Last year, we saw 89 and 99 points scored in the two meetings between these teams, both going Under the total. In ’06, we saw 79 and 98 points scored in the two matchups. In ’05, we saw 96 and 101 points scored in the two meetings. In ’04, we saw 96 and 37 points scored (no misprint – the final was 30-7!). In ’03, we saw 74 and 65 points scored. Add it up and we’ve got eleven consecutive regular season meetings over the last six years that have all produced 101 points or less, nearly two full touchdowns lower than the total the oddsmakers have given us for this contest.
Orlando’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds over where they were early in the season. The Predators allowed 25 touchdowns on 28 meaningful drives without a single turnover forced, sack or even tipped pass in their first three games, each of which flew Over the total. Gruden changed things up prior to Week 4, and the results speak for themselves. The Predators held three consecutive opponents under 50 points in regulation prior to last week when they took their foot off the gas pedal with a 40 point lead in the second half (61-21). Facing a Georgia offense that should be a tad bit rusty coming off their bye week, we can expect the Force to score 50 or less against this rapidly improving Predators defense.
It’s a similar story on the other side of the football. After a rough start in early season play, the Force have been ‘night-and day’ better defensively in recent weeks, allowing a very reasonable 27 touchdowns on 43 meaningful drives in their last four ballgames. Predators QB Shane Stafford has struggled against the better defenses that he’s faced: just 5.1 yards per play against Chicago , for example. We saw only 12 touchdowns on 21 meaningful drives when these two teams faced off last month. Anything close to that here and we’ll cash our Under ticket with relative ease. Take the Under. Current total: 113, reduce wager size to .5 unit at 109 or less.
TV Hotline
MLB Premium Lock - NY Mets -110
NBA Regular Lock - San Antonio -4
MLB Power Plays - Cinci, Yankees
Alex Smart
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros Under 9.0
Reason: Wandy Rodriguez (1-0, 2.33), the Houston Astros starter , has been solid in his teams rotation, and remains among the NL ERA leaders. The southpaw breaking ball specialist, has been his best, at home in Minute Maid Park, allowing just 1 ER , in 14 1/3 innings of solid work, while garnering an extremely stingy 0.63 ERA. Rodriguez is 3-1 when starting against the Rockies with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.323 His pitching opponent , Aaron Cook(1-1, 3.79) the Rockies , righty starter, has also been solid this year, and remains one of the top options in his team pitching rotation. Cooke is backed, by a bullpen that owns a 2.45 road ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Cooke is 3-0 when starting against the Astros along with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.39. Considering the pitching matchup, I expect these two capable hurlers will help keep this contest to stay on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 10-4 in Rodriguezs L/14 home starts. Play under
Doc's Sports
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic
PICK: Orlando Magic
REASON FOR PICK: We like the Magic for Sunday, especially under the NBA key number of 7. Toronto has really looked lackluster towards the end of the season with losses against Chicago, Charlotte and New Jersey. The Raps are 2-12 in their last 14 road games and they are 3-11 against the number during that stretch. We have been really impressed with the way the Magic have clamped down on defense towards the end of the season. They were horrible at the end of the season but now they have close to a top 10 defense to compliment one of the best offenses in the league. We expect a big first game from Dwight Howard and the boys and think they will get close to a double-digit win.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Kansas City Royals
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Kansas City w/Greinke vs Smith
Note: Royals resume their weekend series in Oakland when they send Zach Greinke up against Greg Smith.
After an injury plagued campaign last year, Greinke has bounced back strong in 2008, as evidenced by his 3-0 start with a 1.73 ERA. With Smith nothing special (6 walks and 9 strikeouts in his two starts), we'll fade him off his first MLB win in his most recent starts here today.
We recommend a 1-unit play on the Royals.
Dave Cokin
Brewers @ Reds
Play: Reds -130
Sensational Cincy rookie Johnny Cueto got knocked around some last start, and that's going to happen on occasion. But the hard throwing righty looks like he's going to be on more than off. Jeff Suppan gets the call for Milwaukee in this Saturday clash, and he's been roughed up by several of the Reds probable starters. The numbers haven't quite caught up to Cueto just yet, so I see some decent value in laying the reasonable spot here with the Reds.
Great Lakes Sports
Seattle at LA Angels
Play on: LA Angels with Santana
The LA Angels are 10-7 on this young season, but are heating up going 4-1 in their last five games. The LA Angels are also 103-68 when playing at home the last three years, and 180-138 when playing on grass the last three years. We look for the LA Angels to roll over the Seattle Mariners for the home win & cover tonight.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
NBA
Phoenix Suns + 4 over (at) San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix at 25-16 posted the West's third best road record. The Suns have won the last two meetings at San Antonio. They're 11-4 ATS last 15 games within the West.
New Orleans Hornets - 4.5 over Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans is 22-8 ATS last 30 home games, including 9-2 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite. The Hornets at home went 2-0 (SU & ATS) over Dallas this season.
MLB
Atlanta - 105* over Los Angeles Dodgers (action)
Atlanta is 13-4 last 17 home games. Dodgers are 2-5 on the road this season off losing at Atlanta 6-1 last night. The Braves are 6-3 last nine meetings.
Chicago Cubs (Marquis) - 130* over Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny)
Cubs who have won the last seven meetings won both Marquis home starts vs. Pittsburgh last season. Pirates lost both Gorzelanny starts at the Cubs last season.
Houston (Rodriguez) - 110* over Colorado (Cook)
Rodriguez has allowed one run on eight hits over 14 innings in two home starts this season. The Astros went 11-4 in 15 Rodriguez home starts last season, Rodriguez posting a 2.94 ERA.
Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) - 110** over (at) Tampa (Sonnanstine)
White Sox are 9-2 last 11 meetings. Buehrle won at Tampa 5-3 last season allowing two runs over seven innings. Tampa is 3-9 last 12 home games and 3-9 last 12 Sonnanstine home starts.
Jim Feist
NY Mets @ PHI Phillies
Take "PHI Phillies"
NY starter Oliver Perez is kind of an all-or-nothing pitcher on the mound – lots of strikeouts, or lots of walks. His last start he walked 3 in 4 innings. He takes on a Philadelphia lineup that knows how to be patient at the plate. The Phillies rank 5th in the NL in on base percentage after ranking second last season, when they won the division. Perez is 1-3 lifetime against Philadelphia, walking 40 in 48 innings. Philadelphia is not an easy park to pitch in, and the Phillies have won 4 of their last 6 home games. Play the Phillies!
MLB DUNKEL
Cleveland at Minnesota
The Tribe got its second straight win behind a solid pitching effort from starter Cliff Lee last night and look to make it three in a row today behind starter Jake Westbrook, who has a 2.38 ERA in his three starts this season. Cleveland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115). Here are all of today's games.
SATURDAY, APRIL 19
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny) 15.020; Cubs (Marquis) 14.958
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); N/A
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.443; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.517
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under
Game 955-956: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.686; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.523
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.064; Atlanta (James) 15.813
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 15.584; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.382
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under
Game 961-962: Colorado at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 16.181; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.091
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over
Game 963-964: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hill) 13.677; Florida (Badenhop) 13.454
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 14.457; Arizona (Gonzalez) 16.491
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-105); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Over
Game 967-968: Detroit at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.141; Toronto (McGowan) 14.493
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-105); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Over
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 14.988; Minnesota (Blackburn) 14.144
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Under
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.307; Oakland (Smith) 15.114
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+100); Over
Game 973-974: Texas at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Jennings) 14.675; Boston (Lester) 16.395
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Under
Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kennedy) 15.143; Baltimore (Burres) 15.718
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Over
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 16.277; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 14.632
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10 1.2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.847; LA Angels (Santana) 15.532
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under
Karl Garnett
The Cubs enter today's action with just one loss in their last four games, and Sweet Lou's team is on an 8-3 roll their last 11 ball games.
Tom Gorzelanny is making his second start against the Cubs this month, and he was shelled for 7 runs in just 2 frames 12 days ago, but escaped with a no-decision. Gorzelanny's last 8 innings of work against Chicago have seen 13 runs corss the plate.
Jason Marquis will counter, and the veteran righty has a pair of no-decisions to show for his season thus far, and an over 5 ERA.
With the Cubbies having won 5 of the last 7 series meetings in the Windy City, the G-Man is going to lay some wood with the home team this afternoon.
2* CUBS (on a 1* to 5* basis)
Marc Lawrence NBA Opening Round Super Pick SERIES Play!
Play On: Houston to win the series over Utah
Note: Rockets host the Jazz in a Western Conference opening round series holding most of the cards in this matchup. For openers, Houston owns the home court advantage in this series, and a string home court it is where the Rockets went 31-10 this season. OI the eight Western Conference participants, five of them owned winning records away from home this season (Houston included at 24-17). Three off them owned losing road records (Dallas, Denver and Utah), all 17-24. Furthermore, in their last 16 playoff home games the Rockets are 13-3 SU with a better win percentage than their opponent. The clincher is the fact that Utah is 3-24 SU in their last 27 playoff road games, including 1-18 against opponents that own a win percentage of more then .625. Sure, the Jazz may have an imposing record at home but they are a below average team away from Salt Lake City. Grab the Rockets to win this series.
SPRTS MEMO GUYS
MARTY OTTO
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Recommendation: Reds
Don’t be fooled by Jeff Suppan’s first start this season against the Reds, he was lucky to get out alive. The numbers say his mediocre outing was actually much better, after all, he allowed about one base runner per inning on average and only walked a pair of batters.But his track record here at Great American Ballpark, and his track record against the meat of the Reds’ lineup says this start will end much, much differently. In six career starts at G.A.B Suppan has thrown a total of 33 innings while giving up 28 runs, an ERA of 7.49. He has allowed 39 hits and walked 19 batters in the process, good for a 1.79 WHIP. For their own careers, Edwin Encarnacion hits .286 against, Adam Dunn hits .500, and Ken Griffey Jr. (in over 30 at-bats) has hit .412 with five HRs. Even youngster Joey Votto has gotten in on the fun, going 4-for-7 with a HR and four RBI. Suppan’s counterpart will be Jonny Cueto, everyone’s new sensation. We may have lost a little value with his overexposure so early, but he did get touched up in his last start, a loss to Pittsburgh which should give some back. Aside from a tendency to give up HRs, he has been phenomenal with more than six Ks in each start, only one walk allowed and a WHIP of 0.62. He sat down the first six batters in the Brewers lineup, starting them off 0-for-16 with seven Ks. Though it’ll be their second look at him, the Brewers will not damage Cueto
Fat Jack
NEW ORLEANS -4 1/2
WASHINGTON +2 1/2
HOUSTON -1
THE SAN ANTONIO GAME TO GO UNDER THE TOTAL OF 195
Stephen Nover
GAME: Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
REASON FOR PICK: The oddsmaker has to know Houston's Wandy Rodriguez rarely loses at home. So it's just a case of lack of respect why Rodriguez is at such a low price facing Colorado's Aaron Cook.
The Astros were 11-4 during Rodriguez's 15 home starts last season. He had a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP pitching at Houston last year. Rodriguez has been even better at home this season in two starts. The Astros have won both of his home starts and Rodriguez has a 0.63 ERA. He's pitched 14 1/3 innings at home, allowing eight hits, one earned run with one walk and 13 strikeouts.
Fade Rodriguez on the road; play him at home. It's that simple, especially when the price is low and his opponent is Cook. The Rockies are 9-20 the past three years in Cook's road outings. Cook has a 5.25 ERA this season in two road appearances.
The Rockies could really feel fatigued after playing 22 innings on Thursday and another nine innings last night. Their bullpen has worked 25 1/3 innings the past four days.
Houston has defeated the Rockies in 11 of the past 14 times it has hosted them.
lasvegassportsadvisors Blue jays
JerseySteveWins St. Louis
Templer's Sports Picks NY Yankees/Baltimore Over 10.5
MustWinSportsPicks Nationals