Carlo Campanella
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs host this first round opener on Saturday following their 109-80 victory over Utah to end the regular season. They shot an incredible 59.4% as a team and were offensively on fire. Expect the pace of this Playoff battle to be much slower, especially knowing that San Antonio has gone "Under" in 10 of 12 games after a game which they made 50% or better of their 3-pointers this season!
Play on: Under
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
Utah is a significantly worse team on the road than at home, especially on the defensive end. Tracy McGrady, who has never advanced passed the first round of the playoffs, is going to come out inspired. Rockets ended the season in style by crushing the Clippers by 18. That sets them up nicely here as the team went 8-1 against the spread if coming off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Jazz have lost four of its last five on the road outright, including losses at Minnesota and New Jersey.
Play on: Houston
James Patrick Sports
Indians vs. Twins
The Tribe sends Jake Westbrook to the mound to match pitches with the Twins Blackburn in a nationally televised game on Saturday afternoon. We expect some offense by both teams in this game and our Saturday selection is the Tribe-Twins OVER the TOTAL in Big League action.
Greg Daraban
San Diego 8-9 at 966 Arizona 12-4
Young vs Gonzalez SDG really struggling with the bat. Just one run in the last 29 innings.
AZ crusing along in first place. SDG must prove they can score.
Take Arizona
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: over
Reason: Billingsley is on the mound this afternoon and brings an ERA of 5.59 into this game. The Dogers have played the over in 5 of their last 7 games. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. left-handed starters. The over is 5-1-1 in Billingsley's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 11-4-1 in Atlanta's last 16 games played on Saturday's. The over is 8-2 in the Dodgers last 10 trips to Atlanta. The over is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings overall between the clubs. Play the over.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: At 3:55pm ET our member selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Of all of the accomplishments of the Braves veteran lefthanded starter Tom Glavine, perhaps the most impressive, other than his 300+ victories, is the fact that he had never once been on the disabled list in over 20 years of Major League service -- until yesterday, of course. Glavine currently has a sore hamstring, and that's a big setback for Atlanta. It's not like the Braves don't have other pitching injuries to worry about right now. They are essentially without a closer as Rafael Soriano went down on the 15 day DL on April 10, and their first choice to fill in, righthanded reliever Peter Moylan has just learned that he may need season-ending elbow surgery, so that leaves Manny Acosta as the likely candidate to assume the closer role. Meanwhile, Chuck James will get the start this afternoon in Glavine's stead. His mound opponent will be Dodgers righthander Chad Billingsley, whose numbers are a bit misleading (0-2 with a 5.59 ERA) as he has only had two starts so far and his latest against San Diego was a gem, with Billingsley shutting down the Padres over five innings (four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts). The Dodger bats could have a field day against James as they are currently batting .324 vs. southpaws.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
(5) Washington (43-39, 46-36 ATS) at (4) Cleveland (45-37, 37-45 ATS)
For the third straight year, these two teams will square off in the first round of the playoffs, with the Wizards traveling to Quicken Loans Arena for Games 1 and 2 to take on the defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers in a best-of-7 series.
Washington dropped its regular-season finale to third-seeded Orlando 103-83 as an eight-point road underdog Wednesday, halting a two-game SU and ATS surge. The Wizards finished the year on a 5-2 SU run and went 4-2 ATS in their last six starts.
Cleveland also lost its last game, falling 84-74 Wednesday to second-seeded Detroit as an 8½-point home pup in a meaningless contest for both teams. The Cavaliers went 5-7 SU in their last 12 games and were even worse at the betting window, going just 3-9 ATS in that span.
Cleveland has beaten the Wizards the past two years in the first round of the playoffs, including a 4-0 sweep last year (3-1 ATS). In 2006, the Cavs won in six games, going 3-3 ATS.
These two teams split their season series 2-2 SU and ATS, with both holding serve at home but also covering once each on the road. In the most recent meeting March 13, Washington took a 101-99 victory, but Cleveland got the cash as a 3½-point road ‘dog. In the last meeting in Cleveland, the Cavs eked out a 90-89 win on Feb. 22 but failed to cover as a 3½-point chalk. The Wizards are 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings in Cleveland, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes overall.
The Wizards are on a 14-6 run as an underdog and have additional positive ATS trends of 8-1 on two days’ rest, 8-3 as a road pup of less than five points and 11-5 as a road ‘dog of any price. But they are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference quarterfinal games (all against Cleveland) and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a SU loss.
The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a double-digit home loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a playoff favorite, but otherwise they are mired in several ATS funks, including 3-8 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 as a chalk, 1-4 against the Southeast Division, 1-5 after a SU loss, 1-5 as a home chalk, 1-6 overall at home and 0-5 against teams with a winning record.
For Washington, the over is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 21-7 against the East and 5-2 in the playoffs – again, all against Cleveland – but the under is 11-5 in the Wizards’ last 16 on the highway and 10-4 in their last 14 as an underdog. For Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 6-0 overall, 16-5 at home, 11-2 as a home favorite and 5-0 after a SU loss. Finally, including playoffs, the under is 14-6 in the last 20 series meetings at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(6) Phoenix (55-27, 39-40-3 ATS) at (3) San Antonio (56-26, 37-43-2)
In another rematch of a playoff series from 2007, the sixth-seeded Suns head to the AT&T Center to face the defending NBA champion Spurs, who won the title last year from this same position as a third seed.
Phoenix capped the regular season with a 100-91 home win Wednesday over Portland, failing to cash as an 11½-point favorite for its second ATS setback in three games. The Suns went 8-3 SU down the stretch but a more middling 6-5 ATS.
San Antonio secured the No. 3 seed by pummeling fourth-seeded Utah 109-80 Wednesday laying 4½ points at home to end a two-game ATS skid. The Spurs cashed in just two of their last seven games (4-3 SU), following an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS tear.
Phoenix went 3-1 SU and ATS in this rivalry during the regular season, with the underdog prevailing each time, including the Suns’ 96-79 beatdown at San Antonio 10 days ago as a seven-point road pup. However, the Spurs got the upper hand in a physical and controversial conference semifinal last year, winning the series 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) on their way to the title.
The Suns are on pointspread streaks of 11-4-1 against the Western Conference, 5-0 on two days’ rest, 5-0 after a non-cover and 5-2 against the Southwest Division, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road underdog (the one victory coming in San Antonio earlier this month).
The Spurs are on ATS slides of 4-9 as a home chalk of less than five points, 1-4 on Saturday, 1-4 against the Pacific Division and 1-6 on two days’ rest. On the flip side, though, San Antonio is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 as a playoff favorite, 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 4-0 ATS in the opening round of the playoffs.
The under is 5-2 Phoenix’s last seven overall, 4-0 in its last four against winning teams and 8-3 in its last 11 as a playoff pup of less than five points, but the over is 6-1 in the Suns’ last seven as a road ‘dog and 6-2 in their last eight conference quarterfinal contests. For San Antonio, the under is on two lengthy runs – 21-8 when favored by less than five and 20-8-1 in conference quarterfinal games. Finally, the under cashed in all four meetings between these squads this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
(7) Dallas (51-31, 35-43-4 ATS) at (2) New Orleans (56-26, 50-30-2 ATS)
The Mavericks, looking to regain the playoff form that got them to the NBA Finals two years ago, travel to New Orleans Arena to face the surprising Hornets, who claimed the West’s second seed and carry the league’s third-best ATS record, behind only Boston and Orlando.
Dallas capped the regular season with Wednesday’s 96-87 win over New Orleans as a 7½-point home chalk, locking up the No. 7 seed and solidifying this matchup. With the spread-cover, the Mavs snapped an 0-4 ATS slide that followed a 4-0 ATS winning streak.
New Orleans, which lost three of its last four games, had been solid against the number almost all season, but the setback in Wednesday’s regular-season finale gave the Hornets a middling 5-4-1 ATS mark in their final 10 games. That said, they haven’t suffered back-to-back pointspread losses since an 0-3 SU and ATS stretch Feb. 22-25, against Houston, San Antonio and Washington.
These two teams went 2-2 SU and ATS against each other this season, with the home team winning and cashing each time. In the two clashes in New Orleans, the Hornets posted a 112-108 overtime win in December as a three-point underdog and a 104-93 win in February laying 3½ points. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Despite their recent ATS woes, the Mavericks sport positive pointspread trends of 23-9 as an underdog, 14-2 as a playoff underdog of any price, 16-5 as a playoff pup of less than five points and 37-15-1 against Southwest Division rivals. On the negative side, though, Dallas is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 road games against teams with a winning home record and 2-5 ATS in its last seven on two days’ rest. Also, the Mavs failed to cover in each of their final four games during last year’s stunning first-round playoff upset loss to No. 8 seed Golden State.
The Hornets are on a 22-8 ATS tear at home and carry into this series almost nothing but positive pointspread trends, including 38-18-1 overall, 12-3-1 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk, 36-15 after a non-cover, 35-16-1 after a SU loss, 4-0-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 37-18-1 when playing on two days’ rest.
The under is on streaks of 5-1 for Dallas overall, 8-3 for Dallas against division rivals, 5-2 for Dallas in first-round playoff action, 5-2 for New Orleans overall and 8-2 for New Orleans against Western Conference foes. Conversely, the over is on runs of 9-1 when the Mavs are on the road, 5-1 with the Mavs as a playoff pup, 4-1 for the Hornets in the playoffs, 15-6-2 for the Hornets as a home favorite and 24-8 for the Hornets when going on two days’ rest.
Finally, the under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 clashes in this series, with Wednesday’s game falling short of the 192-point posted price, but the over cashed in both meetings at New Orleans this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
(4) Utah (54-28, 46-36 ATS) at (5) Houston (55-27, 47-33-2 ATS)
A year after making it all the way to the Western Conference finals, the Jazz begin their 2008 playoff run by traveling to the Toyota Center to open a best-of-7 set against the Rockets, who are looking to avenge last season’s first-round playoff exit to Utah.
Utah got flattened in its regular-season finale Wednesday, losing 109-80 at San Antonio as a 4½-point pup, ending a 7-0 spread-covering spree for the Jazz (6-1 SU). Utah still capped the season on a 9-3 SU and ATS surge, but it wasn’t enough to steal home-court advantage in this series from Houston, which finished one game better than the Jazz and got the home-court edge despite being a lower seed.
Houston rolled past the Clippers 94-75 Wednesday, cashing as a heavy 14-point chalk. The win and cover halted a two-game SU and ATS hiccup, which occurred on the heels of a 5-0 SU and ATS win streak. The winner has covered the spread in each of the Rockets’ last 10 games.
These two teams met just five days ago in Salt Lake City, with Utah taking a 105-96 win to narrowly cover as an 8½-point favorite. The Jazz went 2-1 SU and ATS in the three meetings this season, winning the lone contest at the Toyota Center 97-89 catching one point in January. In last year’s first-round playoff series, the Rockets won and covered the first two games, then watched the Jazz storm back with a 4-1 SU run to claim the series, cashing in all five games, including a 103-99 win as a 5½-point road ‘dog in Game 7. Including that playoff series, Utah is on a 7-1 ATS spree against Houston.
The Jazz are on a 22-8 ATS streak against the Western Conference and are on additional ATS runs of 6-1 against the Southwest Division, 4-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 4-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 after a SU loss and 36-16-1 against winning teams. On a negative note, Utah last spring failed to cash in its last four games as a playoff underdog and is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when going on two days’ rest.
Beyond their current 0-5 ATS nosedive in the playoffs, the Rockets are on myriad positive pointspread streaks, including 36-17-1 overall, 16-5-1 at home, 21-5-1 as a favorite, 15-4-1 as a home chalk and 19-7 after a spread-cover. In addition, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four on two days’ rest and 7-1 ATS in their last eight on Saturday.
For Utah, the over is on streaks of 7-2 as a playoff underdog, 6-2 on two days’ rest and a lengthy 42-20 as a road pup of less than five points, but the under is 9-3-1 in the team’s last 13 against the Southwest Division, 15-5 in its last 20 after a SU loss and 13-6 in its last 19 conference quarterfinal contests.
For Houston, the under is on a bevy of runs, including 4-0 at home, 9-2 against the Northwest Division, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 as a home chalk of any price and 8-3 as a home favorite of less than five points. Finally, in this series, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings going back to Game 7 last May.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (8-9) at Arizona (11-5)
Chris Young (1-1, 5.17 ERA) returns to the mound for the first time in a week as he leads the weary Padres against Edgar Gonzalez (0-1, 4.50 ERA) and the red-hot DBacks in the middle game of a weekend series between division rivals.
Hours after scoring just one run in a 22-inning, 2-1 loss to the Rockies at home, San Diego got shutout Friday in Arizona, falling 9-0. The Padres, who have scored a total of three runs in the last three games and have tallied two runs or fewer in six of their last eight contests, have dropped three in a row and seven of their last 11. Also, they’ve alternated wins and losses in their last road contests.
The DBacks have won 11 of their last 13, including three in a row, since starting the season 1-2, and three of their four losses have come by a single run. Arizona, which leads the majors in runs scored (102) and team ERA (2.85), is off to a 6-1 start at home and is 17-5 in its last 22 at Chase Field dating to last season. Finally, Bob Melvin’s squad has won 11 of its last 13 regular-season contests against N.L. West rivals.
Arizona continues to be a house of horrors for the Padres, as they’ve now lost 55 of their last 80 games at Chase Field.
Young got hammered a week ago tonight in Los Angeles, giving up seven runs (six earned) on seven hits and four walks over just three innings, losing 11-1. That continues a noticeable home-road split for Young, who went 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA on the highway last year (4-2, 1.69 ERA at home). Also, San Diego is 0-7 in Young’s last seven starts on foreign turf.
Young faced the DBacks four times last year, going 0-3 with a 7.32 ERA, including 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA at Chase Field. The 6-foot-10 right-hander gave up exactly five runs in all three of his losses, and San Diego also dropped his one no-decision, losing 5-4 at home even though Young allowed just a run on two hits in eight innings of work.
Gonzalez’s last three starts have come against the Rockies, including the first two this season as he lasted a total of just eight innings, allowing four runs and 11 hits. He got a no-decision in Arizona’s 5-2 win in Colorado on Aug. 6 and took the loss in Sunday’s 13-5 setback at home. Last year at Chase Field, the right-hander went 5-2 despite a 5.63 ERA in six starts and 12 relief appearances.
Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 4.08 ERA in five lifetime games (two starts) against the Padres. In his lone start against them last year, he gave up just a single run on six hits in seven innings, winning 8-2 in San Diego.
The over is 4-0-1 in Young’s last five outings against the DBacks (3-0-1 in Arizona). Also, the over is on streaks of 23-8-2 for the Padres on the road, 5-1-1 for the DBacks overall, 4-0-1 overall in this rivalry and 5-0-2 when these teams face off at Chase Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Seattle (9-9) at L.A. Angels (11-7)
The top two teams in the A.L. West continue their weekend series at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif., where former Angels lefty Jarrod Washburn (1-2, 3.50) is set to oppose Ervin Santana (2-0, 3.32).
Los Angeles took Friday’s opener 5-4, improving to 5-1 in its last six while halting the Mariners’ three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, since starting off 2008 by losing five of its first seven games, has still won seven of its past 11.
These teams met last weekend in Seattle, with the Mariners winning the first two games 8-5 and 8-3 before losing Sunday’s finale 10-5. Going back to 2006, Los Angeles has won 23 of the last 33 head-to-head clashes, going 12-3 in the last 15 at home.
Seattle is just 4-10 in Washburn’s last 14 trips to the hill, including dropping two of three starts this season while averaging just four runs per contest. In Monday’s home game against the Royals, Washburn allowed just three runs in six innings, but lost 5-1. In two road outings this year, the southpaw is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, defeating Tampa Bay (7-1) but losing to the Orioles (7-4).
Washburn, who pitched for the Angels from 1998-2005, is 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA in seven career starts against his former mates. He’s also 30-34 with a 4.57 ERA in his career at Angel Stadium, including a gem back in September when he yielded just five hits and no walks in seven scoreless innings en route to a 6-0 shutout win.
Santana has strung together three consecutive quality starts to begin the season, including giving up three runs on seven hits in Monday’s 7-4 victory at Texas. In his lone home start of ’08, the right-hander allowed two runs on six hits in six innings against Cleveland, but got a no-decision as Los Angeles lost 4-3.
Santana has been a markedly better pitcher at home in his young career (25-9, 3.14 ERA) than on the road (12-21, 6.92). And the same holds true for his career numbers against the Mariners, as he has a 3.00 ERA in four home starts versus Seattle and a 9.88 ERA in three road outings. Finally, the Angels are 5-0 in Santana’s last five starts against the Mariners and 26-10 in his last 36 home starts overall.
The Angels are 9-4-2 “over” the total in Santana’s last 15 starts overall (0-1-2 this year), and the over is 5-2 in Washburn’s seven starts against the Angels. However, the under is 4-1 in Washburn’s last five outings overall and 3-0 in Santana’s last three home games against the Mariners.
The Angels have followed a 5-0-1 “over” streak by going 2-0-1 “under” in the last three. Also, the under is 5-1-2 in Seattle’s last eight road games. However, the over is still 7-2-1 in the last 10 series meetings (3-0-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles +137
(Listing Kennedy and Burres)
The Yankees are 6-15 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Brian Burres is the Orioles’ best starter and he has pitched well against the Yankees in the past. New York features so many dominant left-handed hitters that they really struggle when facing a left-handed starter. Burres has allowed less than 2 runs in two of his three career starts against the Yankees. Ian Kennedy is really struggling for the Yankees if his 8.74 ERA on the year is any indication. With the way the Yankees struggle against lefties, the Orioles are a solid choice as a good-sized underdog Saturday.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Yankees/Orioles U 10.5
(List Kennedy and Burres)
This total has been set far too high with two of the best pitchers on each staff going head-to-head tonight. Brian Burres has had some good success against the Yankees with a 4.86 lifetime ERA in 3 career starts. Burres is now the Ace of the Orioles staff after Bedard left to free agency. Burres will contain the Yankees today. Ian Kennedy will have his best start of the season for the Yankees as he faces his easiest opponent of the year. Baltimore is scoring just 4.1 runs per game against righty starters this season. The Yankees are scoring a mere 4.1 runs per game in road games. The Yankees are 19-6 UNDER (+12.0 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 10.5 runs here.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Rockets -1
Houston will sneak away with a Game 1 win over the Utah Jazz to pick up right where they left off last season. The home team won the first 6 games in the Rockets/Jazz playoff series last year and we expect it to start out the same way here. Houston finished off the year with a double-digit blowout of the Clippers, while the Jazz took a shot to their confidence by losing to the Spurs by 29 points. Houston is 8-1 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite this season. Houston is 13-3 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. The Rockets will come out and make a statement tonight with a big home win over the Jazz. The Rockets are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Bet Houston at home.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -105
(listing Hill and Badenhop)
After going down in back-to-back home games, I like the Fish to fight back with a big win Saturday. The Nats are just 2-12 in their last 14 games and just 18-42 in their last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals are only 1-11 in Hill's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Nats are just 1-6 in the last 6 meetings in this series. After two sub par days at the plate, I like the Fish to get their bats going against Hill. Take the Marlins.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -112
(listing Young and Gonzalez)
Young has really been struggling. He definitely doesn't have the stuff that made him an All-Star after a solid start last season. We'll fade him here to pick up an easy win. The Padres are 0-7 in Young's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-7 in Young's last 7 road starts, and 1-7 in Young's last 8 starts vs. the National League West. The Padres are also 0-4 in Young's last 4 starts vs. the Diamondbacks and a terrible 25-54 in their last 79 meetings in Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 overall and I like them to keep rolling Saturday against Young.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Mariners +134
(listing Washburn and Santana)
Washburn has given the Angels their fair share of problems and that’s why we’re backing him here showing sensational value. The Mariners are 5-2 in Washburn’s last 7 starts vs. the Angels. The M’s are also 17-6 against the money line vs. a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse over the last 2 seasons. This has been an area where the Mariners have taken advantage of the Angels recently and we expect it to continue. The Mariners are a very impressive 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Seattle and cash in another nice underdog winner.
Ross Benjamin
Dallas @ New Orleans
Pick:Over 192.5
Both times these two teams met in New Orleans this season the games went over the total with an average total score of 208.5. Granted one of the contests went to overtime but the game had already gone over the total in regulation. The Hornets were #3 in the NBA in three-point field goal shooting while the Mavericks were the best in the NBA in free throw percentage. Dallas went over the total in their last 7 as a road underdog this season when the total was 210.0 or less. New Orleans is 11-4 over the total in their last 15 as a home favorite with a total of 202.5 or less. Play on over the total of 192.5.
Tony Mathews
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles/Atlanta OVER
Explanation: We expect a high-scoring game as the Los Angeles Dodgers face-off against the Atlanta Braves in Saturday's MLB contest.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will use starting pitcher Chad Billingsley. Chad Billingsley has struggled so far this season which is shown by his 5.59 ERA. We see Chad Billingsley having another bad start today. This means the Atlanta Braves will be able to score many easy runs.
The Atlanta Braves will use starting pitcher Chuck James. Chuck James is 0-1 to start the season with a 18.00 ERA (giving up 6 runs in only 3 innings). We don't see things getting any better for Chuck James tonight. To say the least, the Los Angeles Dodgers should have no problem scoring many runs today.
These teams are all about offense in their meetings. In fact, the Over is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings between these teams.
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves Over