Saturday Service Plays

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Reason: Boston has now lost 3 straight but get back on the winning side today. In their last 55 games as a favorote the Red Sox are 39-16. Buchholz is on the mound tonight and he's coming off a great pitching performance. Tampa send Jackson to the mound and he's been horrible at home. The Rays are 5-12 in his last 17 home starts. Tampa is 10-26 in his last 36 starts. Tampa is 2-10 in his last 12 starts with 5 days rest. Play on the Red Sox -.

Brian Gabrielle

NBA Boston vs. Atlanta
Take Atlanta Hawks

At 25-16, Atlanta is a winner on this court. Not that we actually expect Atlanta to win this game - quite the contrary. However, when a team has manhandled another team as badly as Boston has done to Atlanta all season they tend to let down when things are well in hand and open the back door wide. I expect exactly that in this game - Boston to race to a huge half time lead and then go into coast mode, with Atlanta putting together an uncontested run in the 4th quarter to grab the cover in a game where the score will be closer than the action. Take the points with the home dog. Celtics 96, Hawks 91

VEGAS SPORTS PICS

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 over (at) Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles is 5-0 (SU & ATS) over Nuggets this season. Lakers up 2-0 figure to want to get past this series asap to rest for next round.

MLB

Arizona (Owings) -105** over (at) San Diego (Germano)
San Diego is 2-9 last 11 Germano home starts. Arizona is 6-1 last seven Owings' road starts.

Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) -160** over Washington (Chico)
Zambrano, 2-0 over Nationals last season, has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last ten starts. First place Cubs look to regain the win column off losing at last place Washington 5-3 Friday.

Ross Benjamin

Atlanta (Hudson) @ Mets (Maine)
Pick:Atlanta +100

The Mets have not fared well in day games this season going 2-6 overall including 0-3 at home. Contrarily the Braves are off to a great start in day games this season going 5-1 in the first 6. The Braves are also a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 versus a right-handed starting pitcher. In 2 career home starts versus the Braves John Maine has posted a lofty 5.56 ERA. Tim Hudson is 5-2 in his team starts at Shea Stadium since the 2005 season while posting a solid 3.17 ERA. The Mets are 2-8 in the last 10 versus a right-handed starting pitcher.Play on the Atlanta Braves.

SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(3) Orlando (54-31, 51-31-3 ATS) at (6) Toronto (42-43, 41-43-1 ATS)

Having climbed back into their series with the Magic with a victory on Thursday, the Raptors now look to draw even in Game 4 of this best-of-7 opening-round set at the Air Canada Centre.

Toronto scored a 108-94 win Thursday night, easily cashing as a four-point chalk. It was a complete team effort for the Raptors, as they shot 49.4 percent from the floor and had seven players reach double digits, led by T.J. Ford’s 21 points.

The Raptors have now covered the last two games in the series and ended the Magic’s five-game SU win streak. However, Toronto is still just 4-7 SU and ATS in its last 11 games, while Orlando is 8-4 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in its last 11 starts.

The Magic have won four of the last six clashes with the Raptors, but are just 3-3 ATS. Dating back to 2005, the Raptors are now on streaks of 10-3 ATS versus Orlando overall and (8-5 SU) 8-1 ATS versus Orlando north of the border.

Despite Thursday’s pointspread setback, the Magic still are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 5-2 against the Eastern Conference, 4-2 on the highway, 27-10-1 after a non-cover, 14-6-1 as a road ‘dog, 21-9 when getting less than five points on the road and 10-5 on one days’ rest. One negative note for Orlando: It is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight as a playoff underdog.

The Raptors are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 against Southeast Division opponents but the ATS trends are all negative from there, including 9-20 overall, 3-8 against teams with a winning SU mark, 4-7 against the East, 3-8 on one days’ rest, 2-7 following a spread-cover and 0-5 on Saturdays.

In this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall (2-1 in this playoff series) and 4-2 in games played in Toronto. In addition, the over is 7-2 in Orlando’s last nine first-round playoff games, 4-1 in Toronto’s last five first-round contests and 5-2 in the Raptors’ last seven against winning teams. Conversely, the under is on streaks of 7-1 for Orlando on the road and 7-2-1 for Toronto at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(1) Boston (68-16, 54-28-2 ATS) at (8) Atlanta (37-47, 37-46-1 ATS)

The Celtics try to take a commanding 3-0 lead when they meet the Hawks in Game 3 of their best-of-7 first-round series, which shifts to Philips Arena in Atlanta.

Boston went up 2-0 in the series with Wednesday’s 96-77 victory, covering as a 15-point home favorite for the second straight time in this series. The Celtics’ defense dominated the game, limiting the Hawks to 38.3 percent shooting and not allowing them to hit a 3-pointer (0-for-5). Boston also outrebounded Atlanta 45-35 and forced the Hawks into 22 turnovers while committing just 14.

Doc Rivers’ Celtics have now won 13 of their last 14 games going back to the regular season, going 12-2 ATS. That includes an ongoing 6-0 SU and ATS winning streak.

The Hawks, who are back in the postseason for the first time since 1999, have now lost five straight games and seven of their last nine, both SU and ATS. In fact, the winner has cashed in each of the team’s last 11 games.

Boston is 5-0 against Atlanta this year (4-1 ATS), easily winning all five games by double digits. Still, the underdog is 7-5 ATS in the last 12 clashes.

The Celtics are on ATS runs of 21-5 overall, 16-5 as a favorite, 48-19-1 on the highway, 35-17 on Saturdays, 4-1 on two days’ rest, 5-1 against the Southeast Division and 7-2 as a road chalk. Meanwhile the Hawks are on ATS slides of 1-5 at home, 0-4 as an underdog, 0-5 overall and 0-5 against the Eastern Conference.

Wednesday’s game stayed under the total, making the under 5-0 in the five meetings this year. Also, for the Celtics, the under is on runs of 9-3 overall, 12-3 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1 against the Southeast Division and 8-2 following an ATS win.

On the flip side, for the Hawks, the over is still on streaks of 9-5 overall, 8-5 against the Eastern Conference and 6-4 against the Atlantic Division. However, Atlanta has stayed under the total in four of its last five against the Atlantic Division, as well as five straight Saturday contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) L.A. Lakers (59-25, 49-34-1 ATS) at (8) Denver (50-34, 44-40 ATS)

The Lakers season-long dominance of the Nuggets continued in Game 2, and now they look to take a decisive 3-0 lead when the two teams meet inside the Pepsi Center in Denver for Game 3 of their best-of-7 first-round series.

Los Angeles got 49 points and 10 assists from Kobe Bryant in Wednesday’s 122-107 home win, cashing as 8½-point favorites. Bryant was 18 of 27 from the field as the Lakers, who shot 50.5 percent from the floor and accumulated 33 assists as compared with Denver’s 12 on Wednesday. Also, Los Angeles has averaged 125 points a game in this series.

Wednesday’s win improved the Lakers to 5-0 SU and ATS against Denver this season and 8-2 ATS in the last 10. In the lone matchup between these squads in the Mile High City this season, the Lakers scored a 111-107 win as nine-point ‘dogs back on Dec. 5, improving to 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Pepsi Center.

The Lakers are on a 10-1 SU surge dating to the regular season, but they’re just 6-5 ATS during this stretch. Meanwhile, Denver, which had to win four of its last five regular-season games to get into the playoffs for the fifth straight year, has now dropped sixth consecutive playoff games both SU and ATS (all as an underdog) going back to last year’s opening-round, five-game loss to the eventual champion Spurs.

Phil Jackson’s squad is on ATS streaks of 6-1 as a road underdog, 19-7-1 on the highway, 20-9 following an ATS win, 7-3 when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 in conference quarterfinal matchups. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are on positive pointspread runs of 19-8 following a SU defeat, 8-3 at home, 11-4 as a favorite, 9-2 following a SU loss and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road mark.

Game 2 narrowly stayed under the 230-point posted total, making the over 3-1 in the Lakers’ last four overall and 4-2 in the Lakers’ last six first-round playoff contests. Also, Denver has topped the total in 15 of its last 21 home games and 18 of its last 26 games as a favorite. However, for the Nuggets, the under is still on streaks of 6-1 overall and 17-5 in first-round playoff games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS

(5) Houston (56-29, 48-35-2 ATS) at (4) Utah (56-29, 48-37 ATS)

After dropping two games at home, the Rockets got themselves back into their best-of-7 first-round series against the Jazz with Thursday’s narrow win inside Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City and now look to draw even with another road win.

With their backs against the wall, the Rockets held off Utah 94-92, cashing as a nine-point underdog to become the first time all season to win twice in Salt Lake City. Tracy McGrady led the charge for the Rockets with 27 points and seven assists, while Rafer Alson, who sat out Games 1 and 2 with an injury, added 20 points and five assists.

When these two squared off in last year’s opening round of the postseason, the home team went 6-0 SU before the Jazz stole Game 7 in Houston. Including the Game 7 clincher, the road team is on 6-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry (all as an underdog), including 3-0 SU and ATS in this series. However, Utah is still on an 8-2 ATS run against Houston (7-3 SU) and is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home against the Rockets.

Despite Thursday’s setback, Jerry Sloan’s squad is still 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six overall, a downturn that comes on the heels of a 5-0 SU and ATS streak. Finally, the straight-up winner is 13-0 ATS in Houston’s last 13 contests.

The Rockets snapped an 0-7 ATS playoff losing streak with Thursday’s win, all in games played against Utah. Still, Houston remains on pointspread slides of 2-4 as an underdog overall, 1-4 as a playoff underdog, 1-5 as a road pup of five to 10½ points and 1-4 against the Northwest Division. On the bright side, Houston is 7-2 in its last nine Saturday tip-offs and 17-8 ATS in its last 25 on the highway.

The Jazz remain on a bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 25-9 against the Western Conference, 8-2 against the Southwest Division, 38-17-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 as a playoff favorite, and 37-15-1 at home.

The under for Houston is on runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a ‘dog of any price, 17-6 as a road pup of five to 10½ points, 11-3 against the Northwest Division and 8-4 in first-round playoff games. For Utah, the under is 11-4-1 in the team’s last 15 against the Southwest Division, 15-7 in its last 22 first-round playoff games and 6-3 in its last nine overall. Finally, the under is 2-1 in this best-of-7 series and 10-5 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings in Salt Lake City.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona (17-6) at San Diego (9-15)

Micah Owings (4-0, 2.42 ERA) goes for his fifth straight win to start the season when he leads the red-hot DBacks against Justin Germano (0-2, 5.01) and the slumping Padres in the middle game of a weekend series at Petco Park.

Arizona, which owns baseball’s best record, took Friday’s series-opener 5-1, improving to 16-4 in its last 20. The DBacks have now scored at least four runs in 19 of their last 20 games, and they’re also 8-4 on the road this year.

San Diego is in the midst of an ugly slump, having lost five in a row and nine of its last 10. That includes five straight home losses during which the Padres have scored a total of six runs. In fact, Bud Black’s squad has produced those six runs over their last 66 innings at Petco, and they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 16 of their 23 contests overall.

These teams met last weekend in the desert, with Arizona taking two of three. Dating to last year, the Diamondbacks are on a 5-1 run against the Friars. However, San Diego is still 4-2 in the past six meetings at Petco.

Owings, who was just 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA in 29 games (27 starts) in his rookie season last year, is off to a fantastic start to 2008, allowing a total of seven runs in 26 innings, lasting at least six innings in every start. He’s also 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in two road starts.

Owings faced San Diego three times last year. He got rocked in the one outing at home (five runs allowed in three innings of a 10-2 loss), but was brilliant in two starts at Petco Park, giving up one run in each contest on a total of seven hits over 13 innings, winning 9-5 and getting a no-decision in a 3-1 Arizona loss.

Germano was outstanding in his first three starts, giving up just three earned runs in 20 innings (1.35 ERA). But his last time out in Houston, the right-hander got destroyed, yielding 10 runs on 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings, falling 10-3. San Diego is 0-6 in Germano’s last six starts dating to last September, including 0-3 at home. Going back further, the Pads are mired in the following slumps with Germano on the hill: 5-17 overall, 2-9 at home and 3-13 against the N.L. West.

In Germano’s two home outings this year, he’s posted a 2.08 ERA, but San Diego lost 7-1 to the Dodgers and 10-2 to Colorado. Also, he went 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA in four games (three starts) against Arizona in his rookie season last year.

The over is 6-3 in Germano’s last nine starts overall and 9-3 in his last 12 starts at home, but the under is 5-2 in Owings’ last seven.

The over is 10-3-1 in Arizona’s last 14 overall, and 6-1-1 in the last eight series meetings between these teams. However, the under is now 10-3 at Petco Park this season, including 7-1 in the last eight.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (12-12) at Cleveland (11-12)

A pair of young pitchers face off at Progressive Field late this afternoon, as struggling Yankees right-hander Ian Kennedy (0-2, 9.64) opposes Cleveland’s Jeremy Sowers (1-6, 6.42 ERA in 2007), who is set to make his season debut.

New York dropped Friday’s series opener 6-4, falling to 3-4 on its current road trip. That 3-4 mark continues a season marked by inconsistent play, as Joe Girardi’s club has not won or lost more than three straight games all season. Also, the Yanks are now 5-4 at home and 7-8 on the road.

The Indians have rebounded from a 3-10 slump to win six of their last eight, including the last four in a row. However, since opening the season with two home wins, the Indians have lost six of nine at Progressive Field.

New York had an eight-game regular-season winning streak against Cleveland snapped in Friday’s defeat. It was also the Yankees’ first regular-season loss in Cleveland in their past six outings. However, Cleveland won the games that mattered most in last year’s postseason, knocking out the Yanks in four games in a best-of-5 Divisional round series.

Kennedy has just one quality outing in three starts this season, and he lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his most recent outing a week ago today in Baltimore. In that contest, he gave up four runs on five hits and five walks, taking a 6-0 loss. He’s 0-1 with a 6.94 ERA in two road starts. Finally, this is Kennedy’s first career start against the Indians.

The Indians went just 4-9 in Sowers’ 13 starts last year, including 1-3 at home. The southpaw was 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in those four home outings.

Sowers lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his one start against New York last year, giving up six runs on nine hits in a 9-2 defeat at Yankee Stadium. However, in 2006 at home, he held the Yanks to two runs on six hits in seven innings, winning 5-2.

The over is 8-3 in Sowers’ last 11 starts (3-0 at home) and 2-1 in Kennedy’s three outings this season. The over is also 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between these squads and 4-0 in the Yankees’ last four overall. Finally, the Indians have topped the total in three of their last four.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks

Going back to the regular season, the Hawks have failed to cover five straight while the Celtics have covered six straight. At no point during these teams' five previous meetings this season has Atlanta demonstrated an ability to stay within tonight's number against Boston. Doc Rivers team is a phenomenal 23-4 ATS if coming off a double-digit home win.

Play on: Boston

Great Lakes Sports

Orlando at Toronto

The Orlando Magic is a very nice 52-31 ATS this year including 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games. The Orlando Magic is also 10-2 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points this year, and 27-15 ATS when playing on the road this year. We look for the Orlando Magic to grab the road ATS Win & cover today.

Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets

Reason: At 1:10pm ET our member selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. Two of the best righthanders in the NL East will match up in this Saturday afternoon affair with the Mets' John Maine facing off against Atlanta's ace Tim Hudson. These two met in Maine's first start of the year back on April 5 at Turner Field and it was Maine's only bad start thus far in 2008. Maine had a stellar breakout season in 2007 when he tallied fifteen wins for the Mets and had an ERA of just over 3.9 runs. But the key to Maine is how well he pitches at home in Shea Stadium compared to his performance on the road. Last season, Maine's ERA was almost a full run lower at Shea than elsewhere (3.44 vs. 4.39), and this year Maine is undefeated at home in two starts with a 2.13 ERA while in his two starts away from Shea, he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. He also seems to step up his game when he faces the Braves as in three starts against them in '07, Maine had a 3.93 ERA and only gave up thirteen hits in over eighteen innings with seventeen strikeouts. Atlanta's Hudson has some very impressive stats as well, but when you look a little closer, you see that he's had the unusual benefit of having already faced the Washington Nationals THREE times so far in '08. That's an opening month of the season that would make just about any starter look like an All Star. Take the Mets.

Brandon Lang

25 Dime RAPTORS

10 Dime BRAVES
10 Dime D'BACKS
10 Dime TIGERS

Free Pick - Astros-Cards Under and Nuggets

TEDDY COVERS

Arena Football

Tampa Bay Storm - Orlando Predators Under 116.5 / 4 units

We bet Orlando Under the total last week, and frankly, we should have cashed our ticket with ease. Each defense held their opponent out of the end zone on four different meaningful drives. Neither team gained more than 7.4 yards per pass attempt. With a total of 113, normally, thats a recipe for a solid cash. But we saw two interceptions get returned for touchdowns. We saw a late first half fumble completely change the crucial final minute before halftime, which turned into a 16 point disaster for us. And we lost our bet with more than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

The bad news is that we lost our bet on the Predators Under last week. The good news is that it gives us an even higher, more inflated total to bet into this week, giving us a prime opportunity to cash an Under ticket this time around. These two teams met twice last year. The games were totaled at 98 and 99. Both games went Under. Now the oddsmakers are hanging a 116.5 Yes, Ill get involved here, and recommend that you do the same.

Were talking about two of the better defensive lines in the AFL, capable of putting all kinds of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Tampa Bay had six tackles for loss last week and three sacks against New York , but their defense failed to force a turnover for the fifth consecutive week. Orlando QB Shane Stafford was sacked four times against Georgia last week, as the offensive line was repeatedly manhandled by the Force defenders. Weve seen this Orlando offense struggle repeatedly against the better defenses that theyve faced, held to 50 points or less in three straight games prior to the last two contests. Expect the Storms string of failing to force a turnover to end here, with an inspired defensive effort against their arch-rivals in the War on I-4

Orlandos defense has improved by leaps and bounds over where they were early in the season. The Predators allowed 25 touchdowns on 28 meaningful drives without a single turnover forced, sack or even tipped pass in their first three games, each of which flew Over the total. Head coach Jay Gruden changed things up prior to Week 4, and the results speak for themselves. The Predators held three consecutive opponents under 50 points in regulation prior to two weeks ago when they took their foot off the gas pedal with a 40 point lead in the second half (61-21). Last week, the Predators defense was again rock solid, but, as described above, they somehow gave up 62 points. Dont expect that to happen two weeks in a row, particularly against the struggling Storm QB Brett Dietz and their Swiss cheese offensive line. And lets not forget to mention the struggles Tampa Bay has had on kick returns, with their average drive starting at their own nine yard line. Put it all together and the case for the Under is perfectly clear in one of the most intense rivalries in the AFL. Take the Under.

Current Line: Under 116.5, reduce wager size to 0.5 unit at 113 or lower.

Arizona Rattlers +7.0 / 4 units

Last year, Georgia quarterback Chris Greisen was the best quarterback in the league, throwing for 117 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions, averaging more than 9.1 yards per pass attempt, leading to a league leading QB rating of 132. This year, were finding out that it wasnt all Greisen. Georgia lost their offensive coordinator in the offseason. They lost two of their top three receivers as well, as Chris Jackson and Derrick Lee (238 catches, 67 touchdowns) moved on in free agency. Greisens QB rating has declined markedly, down to 112.7. His interceptions are up. His yards per pass attempt is down to 7.9. Instead of being the #1 QB in the league, Greisens QB rating is all the way down to 15th in the AFL.

Georgias defense has declined markedly as well. The Force have allowed 63 and 65 points over the last two weeks. Yes, the Force still have a solid pass rush, but their play in the secondary simply hasnt been very good, a significant part of the reason why they have been a pointspread disaster area this year, just 2-5 ATS, earning only a single SU road victory all year long.

We bet Arizona Over the total last week, but QB Lang Campbell suffered through a truly miserable game. Campbell came into the contest having thrown only two interceptions in his three previous starts, but the playmaking New Orleans defense gave him all kinds of trouble in an ugly five interception performance. Even with the picks, the Rattlers still gained 355 yards of total offense, a perfectly respectable number. In the other two games that Campbell started and finished, Arizona scored 63 points each time, winning outright as a seven point underdog and as a 14 point underdog. Head coach Kevin Guy: "Sometimes you've got to have some pain to learn. He doesn't want to look bad, so he's going to get it cleaned up.

He was fired up to get back out here (at practice)." Expect a fired up performance from the home team here, against a road favorite that really doesnt have much business in this pointspread range, especially coming off a devastating loss last week in which they blew a ten point lead in the final five minutes of the game. Take Arizona .

Current Line: +7, reduce wager size to 0.5 unit at +4 or lower.

Play By Play Inc.

ORLANDO at TORONTO Over 203

LA LAKERS at DENVER Over 229.5

BOSTON at ATLANTA Over 187

HOUSTON at UTAH Over 185

CAPPERS ACCESS

Rockets

Cardinals

W. Sox

DOC'S AFL

4 Unit Play. Take Orlando -5' over Tampa Bay
If you cannot beat them, join them. We have used Orlando for a couple of big plays this season already and were not that impressed with their offense, but they have now won six straight games. We must continue to ride them especially with this low number when playing at home. This is just a bus ride away for the Storm, but they are coming off a very disappointing performance against New York last week, a game which they lost, 66-47. QB Stafford has really come on under Jay Grueden?s system and this is always an important game for the coach since he once starred for the Storm and his brother is head coach at Tampa Bay. Orlando pulls away late and win this one by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 119 in Los Angeles @ San Jose
This number is based simple on the play of the Avengers, who have not been able to stop very many teams in 2008. They are allowing over 60 points per game, but that just puts us right at the number and San Jose has had only one game go over this posted total in their eight regular season games this season. Utah is a very similar team to Los Angeles and the SaberCats played them last week and allowed just 40 points. This game will play well below the posted total and we will not worry about if San Jose can cover this double digit spread and just collect with the total.

JIM FEIST

MIN Twins @ TEX Rangers

Take MIN Twins

Minnesota's offense has been on a tear on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per game. Heading to Texas won't slow them down as this is a great hitter's park. Last place Texas has lost 11 of 13 games. Twins righty Scott Baker has been strong at 2-0 with a 3.51 ERA and a 20-4 strikeout to walk ratio. Minnesota has the superior bullpen, as well. Play the Twins