Saturday Service Plays

Dave Cokin

Mariners @ Yankees
Play: Mariners -110

The Yankees won Friday night, and will try for two in a row as they duel the Mariners Saturday. But there's really not much to like about this team right now when ace starter Wang isn't working. Mike Mussina has been okay in his last couple of starts, but he's pretty shopworn. On the flip side, Felix Hernandez is putting up some eye-popping numbers for the Mariners. Seattle is having some real issues offensively, but I think they can get to Mussina and I'm going to give the Mariners the edge in this game.

SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Antonio (4-1, 2-2-1 ATS) New Orleans (4-1, 3-2 ATS)

The Spurs head to the Big Easy to take on the upstart Hornets in the opening game of their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal inside New Orleans Arena.

These teams split four games this season with both getting a home and road win and cover as the winner cashed in each contest. The most recent battle came on March 12 when New Orleans routed the Spurs 100-75 as a one-point home ‘dog. However, way back on Nov. 9 – the sixth game of the season for both teams – San Antonio went into New Orleans and got a 97-85 victory as a three-point road favorite.

Dating back to 2005, the Spurs are 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) against the Hornets, and they have won four of the last five SU and ATS on the road. The straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 overall, and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.

San Antonio dispatched of the Suns in five games in the opening round, clinching things with Tuesday’s 92-87 home win, pushing as a five-point chalk. The Spurs were riding a five-game SU winning streak (3-2 ATS) before falling 105-86 in Phoenix on Sunday. Last year in the conference semifinals, San Antonio beat the Suns 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) en route to the NBA title.

New Orleans eliminated the Mavericks 4-1, wrapping up the series on Tuesday with a 99-94 home win, but the Hornets failed to cash as seven-point favorites. Byron Scott’s team won all three home playoff games against Dallas (2-1 ATS) and is 33-11 SU and 28-16 ATS in the Big Easy this season. The Hornets are back in the conference semifinals for the first time since 2002 when they were based in Charlotte, and they got bounced by the Nets that year, going 1-4 SU and ATS.

Gregg Popovich’s squad is just 23-20 (16-27 ATS) on the road this season (playoffs included), and when the Spurs have had three or more days off between games they are just 4-4 ATS. Also, San Antonio is a miserable 2-10 ATS as an underdog of less than four points this year, and the team is on further pointspread slides of 4-9 as an underdog of any price, 5-13 as a road pup, 1-5 on the highway and 1-5 on Saturdays.

Conversely, the Hornets are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 41-20-1 overall, 21-7 at home, 16-5-1 as a favorite, 19-7 as a home favorite, 5-2 when playing on three or more days rest and 44-16-2 on Saturdays.

The under is 4-1 in the last five series clashes (2-0 in New Orleans), 11-5 in the Spurs’ last 16 as a ‘dog, 16-6 in the Spurs’ last 22 against the Southwest Division and 6-1 in their last seven when going on three or more days’ rest. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 6-2 for San Antonio overall, 8-3 for San Antonio as a playoff underdog, 11-5 for San Antonio in conference semifinal contests, 17-7-2 for the Hornets as a home favorite, 5-1 for the Hornets on Saturdays and 6-1 for the Hornets in conference semifinal games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Orlando (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Detroit (4-2 SU and ATS)

The Magic find themselves in the Eastern Conference semifinals for the first time in 12 years when they tip off Game 1 of their best-of-7 series against the Pistons inside the Palace of Auburn Hills.

These two teams split four games this season with each getting a home and road win and cover, with the victor cashing in all four games. In the most recent meeting on Feb. 19, Orlando went into Detroit and scored a 103-85 win as a 6½-point underdog. The road team is 15-5-3 ATS in the last 23 series clashes between these two, with the Magic going 6-2-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Motown.

Orlando hasn’t been in the semis since the Shaquille O’Neal-led team in 1996, which was also the last time it won a division title and had a 50-win regular season prior to this year. Stan Van Gundy’s squad took out Toronto in the quarterfinals in five games, going 1-1 SU and ATS on the road. Overall, the Magic are on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS roll going back to the regular season.

Detroit is in the conference semifinals for the seventh straight year after winning the final three games of their quarterfinal series against Philadelphia, covering the number in all three. Flip Saunders’ team capped the series win with Thursday’s easy 100-77 win as 5½-point road favorites. The Pistons are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games.

The straight-up winner is 17-1-1 in Orlando’s last 19 games and 14-0 ATS in Detroit’s last 14.

The Magic are on ATS streaks of 7-2 against the Eastern Conference, 6-0-1 against Central Division squads, 18-7-1 as an underdog, 5-2 on the highway, 15-6-1 as a road ‘dog and 36-16-1 on Saturdays. However, they are just 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine as a playoff road ‘dog.

The Pistons are in the midst of positive pointspread runs of 8-2 as a favorite, 5-1 as a home favorite, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 in conference semifinal action and 27-11 when playing on one days’ rest. However Detroit’s negative ATS trends include 9-12-1 in the playoffs (4-8 ATS in the last 12) and 9-17-1 as a playoff chalk (4-8 ATS last 12 as a playoff favorite).

The over has been the play in four of the last five head-to-head meetings and nine of the last 10 times these two have squared off in the Motor City.

For Orlando, the under is on runs of 11-3 overall (3-2 in the playoffs), 8-1 on the road, 14-4 following an ATS win, 10-3 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 on Saturdays and 5-0 against Central Division teams. For the Pistons, the under is on streaks of 13-5 overall (4-2 in the playoffs), 12-4 as a favorite, 9-2 when playing on one days’ rest, 5-0 against Southeast Division teams, 5-1 on Saturdays and 15-4 against the Eastern Conference.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (17-12) at St. Louis (19-11)

The Cubs and Cardinals, who are battling it out for first place in the N.L. Central, continue their weekend series at Busch Stadium, with Ted Lilly (1-4, 6.46 ERA) scheduled to pitch for Chicago opposite Kyle Lohse (3-0, 2.36).

St. Louis survived a blown 3-1 ninth-inning lead last night, getting a two-run walk-off homer from Skip Schumaker in the bottom of the 11th to win 5-3. The Cardinals are now 5-1 in their last six (all at home), running their season record at Busch Stadium to 13-6. Also, the Redbirds are 6-1 in their last seven Saturday contests, 5-1 in their last six against Central Division foes and 12-5 in their last 17 at home against left-handed starters.

The Cubs have followed up a six-game winning streak by going 2-6 in their last eight, and they’re now just 6-6 on the road. On the bright side, Lou Piniella’s club is on positive runs of 16-9 overall, 8-4 as a road underdog, 24-10 against Central Division foes and 8-3 on Saturdays.

The Cubs went 11-5 against the Cardinals last season, including winning seven of nine in St. Louis.

After starting the season with four straight ugly outings (19 earned runs allowed in 18 2/3 innings), Lilly has turned things around in his last two starts, pitching six innings in each while surrendering a combined three runs on eight hits. He got an 8-1 home victory over the Mets on April 22, but suffered a 2-0 loss at Washington on Sunday.

Despite the strong effort in Washington, Lilly is still 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in three road starts, and Chicago is 1-5 in his last six outings away from Wrigley Field dating to last year. In fact, the Cubs have dropped seven of Lilly’s last nine starts overall.

Lohse has been outstanding in his first six starts in a Cardinals uniform, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of the contests. On Sunday, he limited the Astros to a single run on four hits and one walk in six innings en route to a 5-1 home win. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four starts at Busch Stadium, but St. Louis did lose his two no-decisions.

Lilly recorded four quality starts in five games against the Cardinals last year, going 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA, including 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two contests in St. Louis. Meanwhile, Lohse faced the Cubs three times last year – twice with the Reds, once with the Phillies – and he went 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA (three runs allowed in 15 1/3 innings), and Chicago lost all three games.

The under is 4-2 in Lohse’s six starts this season, including 4-0 at home. The under is also 3-1 in Lilly’s last four overall and 4-2 in his six career starts versus the Redbirds (2-0 in St. Louis).

The under is 8-3-1 in the last eight series meetings at Busch Stadium and 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings overall, with Friday’s game pushing. The under is on further streaks of 40-16-3 for Chicago on the road, 10-3 for Chicago on Saturdays, 6-1-1 for the Cardinals overall and 5-1-1 for the Cardinals at home. However, the over is 17-8-1 in St. Louis’ last 26 Saturday affairs.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (16-13) at Boston (18-13)

The top two teams in the A.L. East are set to send their respective aces to the hill in the middle game of this weekend series at Fenway Park, with Tampa Bay’s James Shields (3-1, 2.54) set to oppose Josh Beckett (2-2, 4.10).

Boston reclaimed sole-possession of first place with Friday’s weather-delayed 7-3 victory over the Rays in a game that ended at nearly 1 a.m. Eastern time. The Red Sox are still just 3-6 in their last nine games, but Terry Francona’s club 12-5 at home in 2008 and 39-17 in its last 56 at Fenway dating to last season. Also, the Sox are 27-11 in Beckett’s last 38 trips to the mound, including 5-1 in his last six on Saturdays and 4-0 in his last four at home.

Despite Friday’s setback, Tampa Bay is still on an 8-2 run, all against A.L. East opponents. The Rays are now 6-6 on the road this season after going 32-85 in their previous 117 on the highway. On the downside, they’re 7-18 in Shields’ last 25 road starts and 1-4 in his last five starts on Saturdays.

The Rays got three outstanding pitching performances last weekend – including one from Shields – in sweeping the Red Sox by a combined score of 10-5. Going back to the end of last season, Tampa has won four of five from Boston, but the Red Sox are still 42-10 in the last 52 meetings overall and 93-43 in the last 136 clashes at Fenway Park.

Shields was dynamite in outdueling Beckett on Sunday, tossing a complete-game two-hitter in a 3-0 win, walking just one and striking out seven. Going back to last season, the right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, and the Rays are 9-3 in his last 12 outings, but just 2-3 on the road. This season, Shields is 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA in three road starts.

Prior to Sunday’s 3-0 win, the Rays had been 0-4 in Shields’ starts against Boston. He’s now 1-2 with a 3.26 ERA against the Red Sox, and in his lone start at Fenway Park last summer, he gave up just a run in six innings but lost 3-0.

Beckett was the tough-luck loser on Sunday despite giving up just two runs (one earned) on four hits in seven innings, walking one and striking out 13 in his best performance of the season so far. In his lone outing at Fenway this year, the right-hander gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings, beating the Yankees 4-3.

Beckett is now 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Last year, he faced them twice (once at home, once on the road) and went 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA.

The under is 6-1 in Shields’ last seven road trips. Also, even though Friday’s game jumped over the posted total, the under remains 7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last nine overall, 5-0 in its last five on Saturdays, 6-1 in Boston’s last seven overall, 4-2 in its last six at home and 4-1 in the last four series meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER

LAS VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Orlando Magic + 6 over (at) Detroit Pistons
Orlando finished an NBA second-best 38-14 vs. the East and an East second-best 27-14 on the road. Magic went 1-1 at Detroit this season, winning 103-85 on 02/19, losing 101-93 on 01/25.

New Orleans Hornets - 2 over San Antonio Spurs
New Orleans is 21-7 ATS last 28 home games including a 100-75 win over San Antonio on March 03/12, outrebounding Spurs 45-27. SA had held 26 of its previous 30 opponents under 100 points.

Derby Day 2008. Interesting quote. Big Brown's trainer Dutrow, "I wouldn't trade horses with anyone. I haven't seen one three-year-old anywhere in the world that can beat Brown" We'll see....

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

You really never need an excuse to play against the Giants' Matt Cain, who has a team start record of 11-27 over the last two seasons, but tonight's situation looks particularly disastrous. First off, he'll be "backed" by a San Francisco offense that is averaging less than three runs per game on the road this season. Secondly, he is 0-3 lifetime vs. Philly with a 9.69 ERA. Phillies starter Brett Myers has been sharp at home this season (3.15 ERA).

Play on: Philadelphia

Marc Lawrence

Play On: San Diego w/Peavy

Note: When the Padres send ace Jake Peavy to the hill in Florida they'll do so knowing he has been a dominator during his team starts in May, winning 17 of his last 19 team starts this month. In addition, Peavy has cashed in 16 of his last 20 team starts on Saturdays, including each of his last 7 in a row. Too many good numbers to ignore here tonight. Back Peavy and the Padres.

With the Cavs big win last night, Marc is on another winning run in the NBA playoffs. He shares a KILLER PLAY on Saturday Round Two Game One playoff card that is 14-0 ATS in the playoffs the last 17 years! Get it now and Marc will toss in his top play on the KENTUCKY DERBY as a no-charge bonus - don't miss out!

Greg Daraban

LA Dodgers (16-13) at Colo (11-18)

Dodgers just keep winning last night 11-6 in Denver.

LA has won 7 straight. Even with Erratic

Loaiza the Dodgers win.

Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Reason: At 7:05 pm, our member selection is on the Cleveland Indians (Sabathia) over Kansas City (Hochevar). These two pitchers were scheduled to go on Friday night, but the game was postponed, on account of rain. So they'll face off today, instead. Luke Hochevar won his first game in the majors this past Tuesday vs. Toronto when he gave up one run and six hits in six innings pitched. But in his previous start this season, he gave up six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings at Oakland on April 20. One of the things I like to do is fade young pitchers off their first career win, and especially if they're taking the mound on the road (as Hochevar is today). His mound opponent will be veteran lefty CC Sabathia, who has given up just one earned run in his last 14 innings pitched. The Indians swept the 3-game series at Kansas City last week, and outscored the Royals 26-7 in those three games. And the Royals are hitting just .215 vs. lefty starters this season. Take Cleveland.

Ross Benjamin

Milwaukee (Parra) @ Houston (Backe)
Pick:Houston -110

The Astros are 23-5 in their last 28 at home when Brandon Backe is their starting pitcher. The Astros have also gone 8-1 in the last 9 at home versus a team with a win percentage of better than .500 and 50-24 in the last 74 home versus a left-handed starting pitcher. The Milwaukee starter Parra enters the game in bad form off his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 29-63 in the last 92 on the road versus a team with a win percentage below .500. Play on the Houston Astros as my free selection of the night.

John Fina

Selection: Tampa Bay/Boston Under 8

Today we expect a low-scoring game as the Tampa Bay Rays do battle with the Boston Red Sox. One reason why we expect a low-scoring game is because both these teams will send to the mound starting pitchers that have been pitching well as of late. This says it all... Tampa Bay Rays Starting Pitcher (James Shields) has a 2.14 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Boston Red Sox Starting Pitcher (Josh Beckett) has a 2.91 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been pitching very well as of late. The Under is a Perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another low-scoring game today. Take the Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Under 8

DCI

NBA

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 1, best-of-7
DETROIT 99, Orlando 94

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 1, best-of-7
NEW ORLEANS 95, San Antonio 90

JAKE TIMLIN

Saturday selection is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Not even the cold rocky mountain air could cool the Dodgers last night as Los Angeles with their impressive win have now won 7 straight games. Well thanks to the Rockies still looking awful look for the Dodgers to make it 8 in a row tonight as Los Angeles will take advantage once again tonight of the Rockies misfortunes of having lost 9 of their last 11 games. Even tougher for the Rockies to over come will be the fact that due to injuries they will be throwing Del La Rose who will be making his first appearance in a Colorado uniform. Flat out the cards are stacked against the Rockies right now as Colorado is getting poor pitching and hitting with no relief in sight. Looking good to make it 8 in a row take the Dodgers at Coors Field tonight

JEFF BENTON

Clearly, Los Angeles is the superior all-around team, but Halos starter Jon Garland is an absolute go-against pitcher right now. He?s given up 11 runs (all earned) on 18 hits (three home runs) and five walks in his last two starts, including allowing seven runs in Mondays 14-2 home loss to the As. It was the second time Garland gave up seven runs at home, doing it in five innings in a 10-4 loss to Texas on April 6. Not only is Garlands 5.94 overall ERA and 8.31 home ERA disturbing, but hes got a 1.73 WHIP overall and a 1.90 WHIP at home meaning nearly two baserunners per inning are reaching base against the right-hander.

On the other hand, Garlands counterpart today is Daniel Cabrera, a guy who has had a million-dollar arm and a 10-cent head his entire career. But it appears that the light bulb has finally gone on for the right-hander, as hes strung together four consecutive quality starts, three of which came on the road. In those four outings including Mondays suspended game at the White Sox Cabrera has yielded a total of seven runs in 27 innings (2.33 ERA). And not counting the suspended game, the Orioles are 5-0 when Cabrera pitches this season.

So even though Cabrera has some ugly numbers in his career against the Angels (2-3, 6.55 ERA in six starts), Im willing to ignore them and file them under Old Daniel Cabrera and put my faith in the new Daniel Cabrera while at the same time continuing to fade Garland and a suddenly slumping Angels ballclub.

3* BALTIMORE ORIOLES

MATT RIVERS

Saturday take the Mariners at Yankee Stadium.

The jig is up as these Yankees stink! Joe Girardi's squad has been awful of late and I just do not see much changing in the near future. Arod and Posada are out injured and this team is flat out old and overated as heck. There is not going to be a second half run this season as the pitching is putrid and the team is just not very good and going nowhere at all.

Sure saying that the New Yorkers stink is obviously relative but right now they have absolutely nothing at all going for them and are outclassed in the pitching department for sure today.

Felix Hernandez has nasty stuff and isn't called the King for nothing. The Seattle hurler is up against the aging and lacking Mike Mussina. The Moose tops out at about 86 mph these days and besides holding his own once every now and then is not nearly the guy he used to be and that is saying it loosely.

At home the Yankees obviously can still beat anybody as Jeter, Abreu, Cano and Damon are still at least serviceable but with everything in our corner I'll back the M's for sure, even at this price on the road.

KARL GARRETT

Orlando enters having held UNDER in the last 3 games of their playoff series against Toronto, but the first 2 games in that series did go OVER the total, and the Magic certainly did their share in trying to get the last 3 over the price, as they netted 102, and 106 points in the last pair of games.

Detroit did hold UNDER in 3 of their last 4 games against Philadelphia, but this is a new matchup, and it happens to be a matchup that tends to see the scoreboard light up quickly.

3 of the 4 regular season meetings went OVER the posted price, and 10 of the last 11 series meetings - including last year's playoffs - have played HIGH!

Once the Magic shake off some of the rust from not having played since Monday, the scoring clip should be at a nice pace to send us OVER in Game One.

3* OVER

Sports Gambling Hotline

Today we hit the diamond early, and we watch Paul Maholm prove he can pitch on the road. Maholm is coming off a complete game win at home his last start to make it 2-0 with an under 1 ERA at home. It has been the road that has given the southpaw trouble, as he is 0-2 on the highway with an ERA over 8!

Look for that to change today, as Washington just doesn't hit the ball very often, and they have the wrong pitcher on the mound today in Matt Chico.

Chico has been shelled all season at 0-5, and does sport a rather inflated 6.68 ERA.
The Pirates did go 4-2 in last year's season series, and they have leveled this year's season series at 1-1 with the win last night.

Play on Pittsburgh.

4* PITTSBURGH