SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

John Ryan

St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Milwaukee– St. Louis is off to one fine start, but they are not executing at the same performance level when playing in day games. In 14 day games they are scoring just 4.0 RPG and batting 262 versus 4.6 RPG and batting 279 on the season. They only have 12 HR in 424 AB in day games this season. Bullpen begin to get a bit worn as they sport a 4.63 ERA and a 1.842 WHIP over their past 7 games. Milwaukee not hitting the ball, but they have Ben Sheets starting and a bullpen that sports a 1.96 ERA and a 1.087 WHIP over the past 7 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 221- 136 ATS for 62% and made 71.3 units since 2002. Play on home teams that are stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season and is now facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. STL starter Pineiro has been steady over the past 3 games on average, but his last start lasted just 3 innings yielding 8 hits, 1 HR and 3 ER. He is also sporting a 6.58 ERA in 3 road starts and an 8.10 ERA in 2 day starts. Ben Sheets is 4-0 on the season with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP and has allowed just 3 HR in 39.3 IP. Milwaukee is 25-7 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 3 seasons.

Sportsbettingstats

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

In game 2 of this series the Celtics beat the Cavs 89-73. The Celtics have won the first 2 games of this series with defense, as they have held King James to only 8/42 shooting. The series shifts back to Cleveland, where the Cavs hope to find some offense as they have only scored 151 points in the first 2 games. The Big 3 of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen lead the Celtics, and Pierce was the go to guy in game 2 with 19 points on 7/13 shooting. In game 2 the Celtics shot 29/72 for a field goal percentage of 40.3%. The Celtics out rebounded the Cavs 45-39 in game 2. LeBron James, who has struggled in this series, as Boston's defense has been stifling, leads the Cavs. LeBron stated about the Celtics D, ""They have athletic bigs that do a good job on rotation. They don't allow me to crack the second line of defense." He will have to find a way to have a big game in game 3 or the Cavs will go down 3-0. In game 2 LeBron had 21 points and was the high scorer in the game, but only shot 6/24 from the field. In that game the Cavs only shot 26/73 for a field goal percentage of 35.6%.

Staff Pick: This key to this game all hinges on LeBron James. If he can break out and have a big game then the Cavs have a chance, but if he doesn't the Cavs will lose. Boston has come up with a great defensive scheme against King James and will hope to contain him again in game 3. Another key for the game is the Celtics bench. They have played solid in the first 2 games of the series, especially James Posey and Sam Cassell. This is a do or die game for the Cavs, as going down 3-0 will pretty much end the series. The Cavs will get a boost from the home crowd in Cleveland, but they need more than that to win this game. LeBron will have to have a big game and someone else will have to step up for the Cavs. The Cavs field goal percentage has been pathetic for the series and they have to shoot the ball better to have any chance against Boston. Look for LeBron to break out of his slump and adjust to the defense that Boston throws at him. That will not be enough though, as the Celtics D, along with their many scoring options will beat the Cavs and take a 3-0 lead in this series.

Celtics 87 Cavs 85

SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(2) Detroit (6-3 SU and ATS) at (3) Orlando (5-3, 4-4 ATS)

The Magic look to draw even with the Pistons in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when the teams face off in Game 4 inside Amway Arena.

Orlando got back into the series with Wednesday’s 111-86 victory, blowing open a close game with a 38-17 fourth quarter and easily getting the cash as a five-point favorite. The Magic shot 52.3 percent from the floor and were led by Rashard Lewis’ 11-of-15 shooting for 33 points, while Dwight Howard got his usual double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds as Orlando outscored the Pistons 46-26 in the paint.

The straight-up winner is 20-1-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 22 games and 17-0 ATS in Detroit’s last 17.

With Wednesday’s win, Orlando snapped a nine-game playoff losing streak to the Pistons that included getting swept out of the first round last season. The Pistons still lead the season series 4-3 SU and ATS, and the winner has cashed in all seven games. Even with the home team 3-0 SU and ATS in this series, the road squad remains 15-8-3 ATS in the last 26 head-to-head matchups and Detroit is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 visits to Orlando (playoffs included).

Orlando is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at home in the postseason and is now 8-3 (7-4 ATS) in its last 11 overall dating back to the regular season. For the season, Stan Van Gundy’s squad is 29-16 (26-16-3 ATS) at Amway Arena, including 14-5-2 ATS in the last 21. The Magic are also on ATS streaks of 8-4 against the Eastern Conference, 7-2-1 against Central Division squads, 6-1 as a favorite, 35-16-1 on Saturdays and 20-8 as a home favorite of five to 10 ½ points.

Detroit saw a five-game SU and ATS winning streak end with the Game 3 loss, but it is still 10-3 SU and ATS in its last 13. The Pistons are also on pointspread runs of 5-1 against the Southeast Division, 6-2 against the Eastern Conference, 7-3 in conference semifinal action and 5-1 following an ATS loss. However, Flip Saunders’ team carries negative ATS trends of 0-6 as an underdog (all on the road), 2-7 as a playoff underdog and 3-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record.

The last two games have gone over the total, making the over 9-3 in the last 12 series clashes, including 4-0 in the last four battles in Orlando. From there, however, both teams are in the midst of several “under” streaks, including 4-2 for Orlando overall, 6-2 for Orlando against Central Division foes and 12-5 for the Magic overall. For Detroit, the under is on runs of 14-7 overall, 4-1 on the road, 16-6 versus the Eastern Conference, 65-29-1 as an underdog, 20-9-1 as a playoff underdog, 6-2 against the Southeast Division and 9-2 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO

(1) Boston (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at (4) Cleveland (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS)

The Celtics held serve at home and now this best-of-7 conference semifinal shifts to Quicken Loans Arena with the Cavaliers in must-win mode.

Boston overcame a sluggish first quarter Thursday and beat Cleveland 89-73, covering as an 8½-point chalk. Neither team shot the ball well (Boston at 40.3 percent, Cleveland at 35.6 percent) but the Celtics’ Paul Pierce led the charge with 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting. The key for Boston has been containing the Cavs’ LeBron James who has gone just 8-for-42 in the first two games for a total of 33 points, and he has 17 turnovers.

Boston is now 4-2 in six meetings with Cleveland this year, but the Cavaliers are 4-2 ATS. The home team has won seven straight series clashes and eight of the last 10, but the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Finally, despite the Game 2 result, the underdog has dominated at the window, going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine between these two.

The Cavaliers are on ATS streaks of 4-0 after a loss, 5-0 in playoff games as a favorite of less than five points, 8-1 after a double-digit loss and 4-1 as playoff chalk. On the flip side, Cleveland is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home, 2-5 ATS in its last seven after one days’ rest and 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home against a team with a winning road record.

The Celtics are on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 24-9 overall, 11-3 against the Central Division, 10-3 on one day of rest, 19-7 following a SU win, 17-7 against the East, 40-14 as a road underdog and 19-7 on Saturdays. But Boston is in a 1-4 ATS funk in conference semifinal games and is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this postseason.

The over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last seven road games, but from there, the under is on streaks for Boston of 15-7 against the Eastern Conference, 9-4 following a spread-cover, 7-3 in conference semifinal contests, 16-5 against the Central Division and 4-1 as an underdog.

The “under” trends run deep for the Cavaliers, too, including 11-3 overall, 6-0 against the Atlantic Division, 11-3 against the Eastern Conference, 7-2 following a SU loss, 13-3 as a home favorite, 11-3 when playing on a days’ rest and 12-1 in conference semifinal playoff games. Finally, although the under is 3-0 in the last three series meetings, both regular-season battles in Cleveland easily hurdled the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona (23-13) at Chicago Cubs (20-15)

The Cubs snapped a five-game losing streak to the Diamondbacks on Friday and now look to make it two in a row when they send Ryan Dempster (4-1, 2.72 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field opposite Arizona rookie Max Scherzer (0-1, 2.16).

Chicago prevailed in a low-scoring affair Friday, winning 3-1, but Lou Piniella’s squad is still just 4-7 in its last 11 overall. On the bright side, the Cubs have won 10 of their last 13 at Wrigley.

Arizona has the league’s best record but is just 5-6 in its last 11 overall, including 3-3 on the highway following an eight-game road winning streak. The DBacks, who have alternated wins and losses in their last five outings, are 19-7 in their last 26 on Saturdays.

The DBacks swept Chicago out of last year’s best-of-5 National League Divisional Series, and despite yesterday’s defeat, they’re 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall and 7-3 in their last 10 visits to Wrigley Field.

Dempster is 4-0 with a 4.30 ERA in four home starts, and the Cubs are 5-2 overall in his seven starts. In his most recent start on Monday, the right-hander allowed five runs (all unearned) in six innings as the Cubs fell in Cincinnati 5-3. For his career against the DBacks, Dempster’s is 1-4 with a 6.04 ERA in 13 games (nine starts), with his team losing seven of the nine starts.

Scherzer is making his second career start after giving up five runs (two earned) on seven hits in four innings of an 11-4 loss to the Phillies on Monday. His big-league debut came April 29 when he pitched 4 1/3 perfect innings in relief, allowing no runs and no hits and striking out seven. The hard-throwing right-hander has 12 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.

The under is 8-1 in the last nine series clashes, 14-5-3 in the last 22 between these two in Chicago, 4-2 in Dempster’s last six starts overall, 10-4 in Chicago’s last 14 Saturday games and 12-4 in the Cubs’ last 16 against the National League West. The under is also 8-3 in the DBacks’ last 11 against the N.L., but the over is 5-0 in their last five on Saturday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (22-15) at Tampa Bay (19-16)

The middle game of this weekend series features a battle of southpaws as the Angels send unbeaten Joe Saunders (6-0, 2.61 ERA) to the mound at Tropicana Field to battle the Rays’ Scott Kazmir (0-1, 6.75).

Tampa Bay got a one-out, two-run, walk-off home run from rookie Evan Longoria to steal a 2-0 victory on Friday, improving to 3-1 in its last four. The Rays have now won seven consecutive home games and are 5-1 in their last six as a home favorite.

Los Angeles has followed up a four-game winning streak with consecutive losses in Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Still, Mike Scioscia’s ball club is 12-7 on the highway this year, including 9-4 in the last 13. The Halos are also on positive runs of 6-2 as an underdog and 4-1 against the A.L. East.

The Angels had a five-game winning streak against Tampa Bay snapped last night, but they’re still 13-5 over the last two seasons and 46-17 in the past 63 series clashes. However, the teams have split their last nine battles in Florida.

Saunders is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three road starts for the Angels, allowing just five runs in 19 1/3 innings. He got knocked around a bit in his last start at home on Sunday, giving up four runs on 12 hits in five innings of a 6-5 victory over the Orioles.

Kazmir is making his second start of the season and first at home after giving up four runs (three earned) on six hits in four innings of Sunday’s 7-3 loss in Boston. In his lone start against the Angels last season, Kazmir allowed on run on three hits in seven innings of a 7-2 victory.

Los Angeles is 10-3 in Saunders’ last 13 road starts and 21-7 in his last 28 overall. Meanwhile the Rays are 7-1 in Kazmir’s last eight starts against American League West competition but just 1-4 in his last five home outings.

With last night’s game staying way low, the under is now 5-1 in the last six series clashes. The under is also on runs for the Angels of 6-0 against southpaws, 7-1-1 on Saturdays, 5-1-1 on the highway and 14-6-2 overall. For the Rays, the under is on streaks of 6-0 at home, 5-1 on Saturdays, 5-1 against the A.L. West and 6-2 against left-handed starters.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER

Mike Rose

New York Dragons @ Los Angeles Avengers Over 111.5

Coming into Week 11’s AFL action, the NY Dragons sit four games in back of the National Conference’s Eastern Division leading Philadelphia Soul with a 5-4 SU mark, and they come into tonight’s contest winners of four in a row both SU and ATS. As for the Avengers, they sit one-game in back the San Jose Sabercats for the top spot in the Western Division of the American Conference. This will be just the sixth match-up between these two franchises as the Avengers have a stranglehold on the series winning four of the five match-ups both straight-up and against the spread. However, NY notched its first win of the series back in 2006 when they went into the Staples Center and upended the Avengers 70-61 as three-point road favorites. The 131 combined points soared over the closing ‘total’ of 112 to make the over 3-1 ATS in the L/4 overall meetings.

The Dragons have played some phenomenal defense to start the season that’s seen the under cash in six of their nine lined games this season. The under is a perfect 3-0 ATS when they’ve lined up against non-conference opposition, and it’s cashed all three times they played in a game with the total equal to or greater than 110. That said, LA is fighting for its playoff lives and the over has cashed in 4 of their 5 home games this season. It’s also 4-1 ATS when the total is equal to or greater than 110. Historically, this has been a high scoring series, so look for that to continue tonight regardless of how well NY’s defense has played throughout its L/5 games.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: San Diego w/Maddux

Note: The Padres send future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux to the mound when they host Colorado in Game Two of this weekend series. Maddux enjoys hurling at home in May having cashed in 12 of his last 19 team starts. He's also in solid KW form with 11 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last three starts. Look for the Padres to improve to 13-5 at home on Saturdays here this evening.

Greg Daraban

Philadelphia (21-16) at San Francisco (14-22)

Afternoon affair in the Bay young vs old as 45 Moyer takes on youngster Lincecum. Yesterday Philly won behind Lefty Hamels 7-4.The Giants have lost 5 in row but help is on the way Baby face Lincecum is 4-1 is near unhittable at times.Must side with the Giants.

Take San Francisco

Tom Scott

Boston at CLEVELAND
Play ON: UNDER the total points

You all saw how difficult it was for both teams to get points in the first two games of this series. Today will be no different. There are two different angles that tell us so. One is that same 62+% grinder that we used to win the Under in the last meeting between these two teams. Here is how the second one translates: In all NBA playoff games since the 1990-91 season, there have only been 42 "game threes" played in which both of the previous games in the series went Under, the current O/U line was more than 175 and at least one of the teams tallied less than 75 in the previous game. In those third games of the series , the UNDER won the money 30 times. 71% total points angles are rare. We can't pass this one.

PREDICTION: TOTAL POINTS SCORED - 166

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Reason: After a red hot starts the D'Backs are struggling a little having lost 4 of their last 6 games. Arizona is 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 11-3 in their last 14 home games. In their last 19 games as a favorite the Cubs are 14-5. Dempster, 4-1 takes the mound this afternoon. Chicago has won his last 5 home starts. In his last 7 games as a favorote the Cubs are 5-2. Play on the Cubs -.

LAS VEGS SPORTS PICS

Detroit Pistons + 5 over (at) Orlando Magic
Detroit up 2-1 in this series looks to advance to the Eastern finals for the sixth consecutive season. The Pistons off coming with an uninspired effort in game three (L, SU & ATS) figure a big effort to get back on track today. Overall, they're now 10-4 ATS last 14 games at Orlando.

Boston Celtics + 2 over (at) Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS last nine home games vs. above .500 road teams. Cav's starting forward Ben Wallace is questionable. NBA best road record Boston figures a focused effort off going 0-3 road in the first round. The Celtics enter up 2-0 off posting a dominating 89-73 home win in game two.

Ross Benjamin

Game: Baltimore (Olson) @ Kansas City (Tomko)
Pick: Baltimore -110

The Orioles have defeated the Royals 11 times in a row and 14 of the last 15. The Royals starting pitcher Brett Tomko enters the game in bad form off of his last 3 starts posting a 1.88 WHIP and a 6.91 ERA. The Royals are hitting just .231 as a team at home versus left-handed pitching this season. The Orioles starting pitcher Olson has been very good in his first 2 starts this season posting a stellar 2.08 ERA while allowing just 8 hits in 13.0 innings. The price is right so we are going with the Baltimore Orioles as my free selection of the night.

Sportsbettingstats

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs

In yesterday's game between these two teams the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 3-1. The Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West and 3 games ahead of the L.A. Dodgers, while the Cubs are in second place in the NL Central only 1.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams are 4-6 in their last 10 games.

Taking the mound for the Diamondbacks is Max Scherzer (0-1 5.40 ERA), who will only be making his 3rd appearance and 2nd start of the season. In his last outing Scherzer went only 4 innings giving up 5 earned runs in a loss. In yesterday's game the Diamondbacks scored 1 run on 4 hits and left 4 men on base. Chris Young homered for the Diamondbacks, for their only run of the game. Taking the mound for the Cubs is Ryan Dempster (4-1 2.72 ERA), who has pitched solid and already has 29 strikeouts this year. In his last outing Dempster went 6 innings and gave up no earned runs but still received the loss.

In their win yesterday the Cubs scored 3 runs on 7 hits and left 8 men on base. Derrek Lee homered for the Cubs.

Staff Pick: The key to this game is the pitching match up, as the Cubs definitely have the advantage with Dempster on the mound. Scherzer will have to have a strong outing at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field for the Diamondbacks to have a chance. Both teams are hitting well, as the Cubs are 2nd in team batting average and have scored the 2nd most runs (195) in the NL, while the Diamondbacks rank 3rd in team batting average and 1st in runs scored (201). Both are team oriented clubs, as neither team has a player in the top 5 in the NL in batting average, RBI's, or home runs, which means both teams have many weapons in the lineup and not one guy to concentrate on. The Diamondbacks have the 2nd best team ERA in the NL and their bullpen is having a solid year. The Cubs also have a good bullpen and new closer Kerry Wood already has 6 saves for the season. Dempster is having a solid year so far and will be pitching to the team with the best record in the Major Leagues. Look for him to have a good outing at home and for the Cubs to win this game.

Cubs 6 Diamondbacks 4

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Florida Marlins +101

The Fish are off to a surprising start and it makes sense to back them here against a team they have dominated. The Marlins are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. The Marlins are 9-3 in their last 1s vs. the National League East, 5-0 in their last 5 overall, and 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Nationals are only 2-5 in their last 7 games as a favorite, 17-36 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record, and 7-17 in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Marlins are playing great baseball right now and I expect their hot hitting to continue in hitter-friendly Washington .

PRICELESS PICKS

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +163

It's showing great value for us to go against Sheets here and now is a great time to do so as Milwaukee has been struggling at the plate and I anticipate him not getting a great deal of help in this one. The Brewers have lost 6 in a row with Friday's game pending. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 6-2 in their last 8 Saturday games. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Pineiro's last 4 starts with 4 days of rest and 4-1 in Pineiro's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Brewers are only 1-7 in Sheets' last 8 starts vs. the Cardinals. It doesn't matter who you are, the Cards feast on righties. Take the Cards.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Astros/Dodgers UNDER 9 Runs

The Under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 Saturday games, 6-1 in the Astros last 7 games as a road underdog, and 6-1 in the Astros last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Under is a strong 22-8 in the Astros last 30 vs. a team with a winning record. The Under is 6-1 in Billingsley's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 5-1 in Billingsley's last 6 starts vs. the National League Central. The Astros are a team which really struggles to score runs, especially on the road. We'll take the under 9 runs here.

Dave Cokin.

OAK Athletics and TEX Rangers
Take OAK Athletics

The Rangers got an unexpected lift from unheralded Scott Feldman Friday night and knocked off the A's. But I don't see the momentum carrying over here. Kevin Millwood is getting ripped in virtually every start and I expect the A's to do damage against him here. Dana Eveland has been much tougher at home than on the road, but overall the lefty has been pretty effective and I believe he rates the pitching edge. Oakland is also the better team, so adding it all up, there looks to be good value here on the A's.

Jim Feist

COL Rockies and SDG Padres
Take SDG Padres

San Diego is home after a long road trip to the East coast. Their pitching staff likes the spacious outfield of Petco Park. It's a park you need to be able to throw strikes in and not walk anyone. That's the problem with Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez, who has 25 walks in 34 innings. That's why he's 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA. San Diego starter Greg Maddux knows all about the value of throwing strikes, walking just 8 in 44 innings. He's been much better the last two years at home than on the road. An excellent spot for the home team. Play the Padres