LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays +115
Dustin McGowan of the Toronto Blue Jays finally got a much-needed win his last time out after pitching in hard luck throughout the year, and we expect another fine outing tonight vs. the Cleveland Indians.
McGowan has been another Toronto pitcher suffering from a lack of run support, as he has a 2.95 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in 42.2 innings, posting six Quality Starts in seven outings and allowing just four runs in the lone non-quality effort. He tossed 7.1 scoreless innings at the Chicago White Sox while allowing only four hits his last start, and this is certainly not the same pitcher that the Indians hit hard the only time they faced him last year. Plus, the Blue Jays are also a qualifying Bullpen System play, and that system is now 19-14, +5.85 units so far this year.
Now granted, Aaron Laffey has allowed just seven hits in 12.2 innings over two starts this season, but is he really that good? We think not, and that he will get a rude awakening at the Major League level very soon. When he is in need of relief, the Cleveland bullpen only ranks 19th in the league with a 4.09 ERA.
We will back the Blue Jays as an underdog in this spot.
Pick: Blue Jays +115
Alex Smart
Detroit Tigers -130
The Detroit Tigers have had the NY Yankees number this season, winning all 4 meetings, including the series opener on Friday night 6-5. With the Yankees sending a guy that started his season, in the minors, Darrell Rasner, I think the Motown crew have a great opportunity of turning the trick again. Final notes & Trends: The Tigers have won 6 straight in this series, dating back to last season. Play on Detroit
David Malinsky
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
It is most rare when we get the far superior team in an underdog role, and while Tim Lincecum has been outstanding on the mound for the Giants, every bit of his 4-1/1.49 is being factored by the oddsmakers into this one. That gives us outstanding value to back the energized Phillies, who got a big game from Jimmy Rollins in his first night back (3-5, with a home run, double, and three rbi’s), and have the ideal pitcher of their own to deal with this matchup.
Part of why San Francisco earns this price range is that the weakness of the N.L. West is not being fully appreciated - because there were so many division games in April it keeps the marketplace from noticing, but here is the bottom line - teams from this grouping are just 33-47 against outside opponents, including a miserable 5-14 contribution from the Giants. It also means that Lincecum’s numbers have not come against the best of opposition, and now we get a rare opportunity for a team to see a non-division pitcher for the second time in a row. And while Linceceum did not allow an earned run in Philadelphia last week, he was not as dominating as that bottom line would make it appear. In a game they eventually won in double figures, the Phillies made the young San Francisco right-hander work - it took him 110 pitches to get through six innings, and while none of the four runs were charted against him, they had a pair of two-run innings (one capped by a ringing two-run double from Pat Burrell).
While Philadelphia now gets the bonus of a quick second look against Lincecum, and the presence of Rollins, the Giants get no such advantage against Jamie Moyer. They did not see him in Philadelphia last weekend, and in the only meeting of 2007, which came back on May 4, the bulk of the starters (Dave Roberts, Barry Bonds, Pedro Feliz, Omar Vizquel and Kevin Frandsen) are no longer around. That means an uphill battle for a weak lineup to work through the guile that Moyer brings to the table, and his 2-0/2.37 on the road this season (wins over the Diamondbacks and Mets; the Phils won a no-decision behind him at Milwaukee) shows what he has left in his arsenal. Behind Moyer there is also a bullpen that is becoming a major force. Set-up man Tom Gordon has not been scored on in his last 10 appearances, while closer Brad Lidge has been as good as anyone in the game, not having allowed a run all season, and recording nine saves.
LARRY NESS
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: The Orioles sure have the Royals' number. Last night's 7-4 win was Baltimore's 11th consecutive win over the Royals and its seventh straight win in Kansas City. While both of these teams have struggled at the plate this year (Baltimore has a .246 team BA while averaging 4.05 RPG and KC has a team BA of .253 while averaging 3.54 RPG), the teams did get 11 runs last night. The Royals are last in the AL in runs scored this year (124) but had 10 hits on Friday. However, they left nine runners on base, including two in the ninth when Baltimore turned a game-ending double play. Garrett Olson (1-0, 2.08 ERA) takes the mound for his third start in place of Adam Loewen (DL). He's had two solid starts but I'm surely not sold. After all, in seven starts last year, he allowed 42 hits in 32.1 innings (7.79 ERA) with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 28-28. Starting for KC is journeyman Brett Tomko. Tomko's first two starts this year came vs Minnesota, as he pitched well going 11 innings while allowing just two ERs. In his most recent outing (May at home vs the LAA), he was also sharp, lasting seven innings while giving up two hits nad no ERs. However, in his three starts in between, he lasted just 14. 1 innings, giving up 26 hits and 16 ERs (10.05 ERA). I'm going 'over' this low total.
BRYAN LEONARD
St. Louis @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: St. Louis
The Brewers hurt us last night as we were one out away from a nice underdog victory before Ricky Weeks ruined our fun. But we go right back to the Cardinals today as this line doesn't clearly reflect how Ben Sheets has fared against St Louis. Milwaukee has dropped 6 of the 7 games he has started against the Redbirds. Last year in two starts St Louis lit him up for a .304 average and .500 slugging percentage. Off back to back subpar performances we see St Louis extending his troubles, with a nice underdog price to boot.
PLAY ST LOUIS
Ferrall
AL FREE B's
Orioles -110 on ML over Royals--Olson has a nice 2.08 ERA with 13 K's in his last 3 starts. Tomko gives up a lot of runs. TAKE THE OVER 8.5 RUNS
OAKLAND -105 on ML over Rangers--A's get W behinf Eveland. Millwodd has been getting jacked. He's allowed 17 earned runs in his last 3 starts with a 10.20 ERA.
White Sox -125 on ML over Seattle--Vasquez over Washburn in the Emerald City. Vasquez has K'd 19 in his last 3 starts.
NL FREE B's
GIANTS -120 on ML over Phillies--Lincecum beats Moyer in young vs old. Lincecum improves to 5-1 with the win and his ERA is just 1.49 (sweet)
Padres -120 on ML over Colorado--Maddux beats Jimenez in So.Cal. TAKE THE OVER 8 RUNS
DODGERS -185 on ML over Astros--Billingsley over Sampson at the Revine. Billingsley has struck out 24 batters over last 3 starts and allowed only 7 earned runs
Nick Parsons !
Play ON Dallas Stars Puck Line +1.5 goals @ Detroit
The Stars were unable to take advantage of what many thought might be a rusty Red Wings team in Game One of this series on Thursday. However, give credit to Detroit as they played a much better game than many thought they would be capable of after having had a full week off prior to starting these Western Conference Finals. While the Red Wings were indeed impressive in totally outskating (and outplaying!) the Stars on Thursday, there should be some adequate adjustments made by the Dallas coaching staff to result in a much better effort on Saturday night. Although an upset is certainly possible tonight, there is substantial line value with the Stars on the puck line in this match-up. One must lay a price to get the +1.5 goals but this game should play out much tighter than Game One did. If this game is tied late, as we feel it very well could be, you will be much more comfortable with the Stars on the puck line than you would with a play on the money line on either side! Dallas didnt defeat the Stanley Cup Champ Ducks by accident and the Stars defeat of the highly regarded Sharks was no fluke either. This team is well put together with a good mix of talent and experience. After getting shown up in Game One, the Sharks will undoubtedly show up in Game Two and this will be a much tighter game as a result. Its still tough to bet against the Red Wings at the Joe but, by taking the puck line here, a tight loss will still pad the bankroll and we expect the Stars to be in this one all the way!
JB Sports
3 units Boston/Cleveland Over 175.5
Scott Ferrall NBA Locks
Magic -5
Cavs -1
WUNDERDOG
Cincinnati at New York Mets
Pick: Cincinnati +1.5 runs +110
In game one of the double-header, we'll back the Reds on the +1.5 run line. Johan Santana goes for the Mets and he's been very good if not outstanding thus far with his new team. The Reds are off a 9-0 thumping of the Cubs - their second win in the last three games. We think they can keep this one within a run as the Mets' bats have not been impressive thus far. New York is batting just .233 and scoring 4.4 runs per game at home. They are just 5-9 against the run line and 7-14 against RHP. Road underdogs are 41-14 (75%) to the 1.5 run line when coming off a shutout win the past decade. Santana is just 3-14 against the run line in home games the past two seasons including an 0-7 mark when the total is 8 or 8.5.
Eddie Roman
Second Ever Waive the Rating Game of my Career
Orlando Magic -5
Erin Rynning
MLB Playmaker: Tampa Bay Under 8.5 -110
MLB Minnesota Under 8.5 +100
Passing NBA
Gavazzi
2% Atlanta Braves
2% Oakland A's
3% Cleveland Cavs
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Pistons +5 over Magic
The Magic got their one big win in this series, but today I really think the Detroit experience and defense will win this game sending the Pistons back home looking to close out the series. Orlando is not ready to move on as a franchise. Dwight Howard needs to get a little better at shooting the ball and not just being a dunker. Orlando also has to get better on defense. This spread is too high for a team like Orlando to be giving the Pistons.
Cavs -1.5 over Celtics
You cant have your model player in the league get swept can you? The NBA is a business and Cleveland has to pick up at least one win in this series especially at home. Lebron James is the face of the NBA and it wouldn't look good to see him and his team go down so easily. I know that statement sounds crazy, but its the truth. Boston struggled on the road in Atlanta and I expect them to do so again today.
Major League Baseball
Bluejays +110 over Indians
McGowan/Laffey
Savannah Sports
2 Units on LA Dodgers Over 8.5
2 Units on Cleveland Under 8
1 Unit On Baltimore -102
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