Rocketman
5* Angels
Bob Akmens
MLB 4* Indians /Jays Under 8.5
NHL 3* DETROIT -225
AFL 3* DALLAS / GRAND RAPIDS UNDER 101
NBA 3* CLEVELAND -2
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED HOME RUN BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Dempster -130
Teddy Covers
AFL Dallas Desperados -11.0 4 units
NBA Celtics/Cavaliers Over 176 4 units
MLB San Diego Padres -120 3 units
Alex Smart
MLB Chicago Cubs -125 3 units
MLB Cleveland Indians -125 4 units
AFL Colorado Crush/Utah Blaze Under 119 3 units
AFL New York Dragons/Los Angeles Avengers Under 111.5 3 units
LENNY STEVENS
20* CAVS
10* MAGIC
DAVE COKIN
3* MARLINS
HAT DBACKS
TOTAL PHILLIES UNDER
3* CAVS
WINDOW PISTONS
JIM FEIST
5* GIANTS
INNER CIRCLE INDIANS
PLATINUM ANGELS
5* CAVS
TOTAL UNDER CAVS
GOY PISTONS
SCOTT SPRIETZER
5* CUBS
TKO BRAVES
TKO DODGERS
KO INDIANS
5* MAGIC
TKO CAVS
TOTAL OVER MAGIC
Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: TOTAL: Over 176
In looking at this game, its hard to support either side, given how poorly Cleve (including King James) has played in games 1 and 2 of this series, but also with the memory of Bostons three consecutive playoff road failures in Atlanta still fresh in our minds, as well as the fact that the two games played between these two TY in Cleve were both won by the Cavs. We will have a side/total teaser recommendation at the end of this write up, but no pick on either side. Rather, we look to the total, and we see plenty of line value on the Over at this low number of 176, as the line makers know that virtually all NBA fans are well aware of the two brick fests at Boston in games 1 and 2 of this series (even those who did not actually suffer through watching them), which resulted in total points of just 148 and 162 points, respectively. Nite Owl Sports took full advantage, winning all four of our under picks on those two games (one on the first half under and one on the full game under in each game), for a total of 7 units won on the unders in both games combined.
Those four unders wins were part of an INCREDIBLE 23-7 RUN at Nite Owl Sports for +34 UNITS over the last 7 days, including 15-6 /+19 UNITS in NBA and 10-1/+21 UNITS on our last 11 Plays of the Day.
But in this game 3 we are not only jumping ship off of the series under train, but are going the other way. The reason? Mostly the line value that we are getting with the totals line having been chopped down to 176 by the line makers, who know that most of the betting public presently perceives the Cavs as a bunch of bricklayers and the Celtic defense as virtually impenetrable. But let's also consider what happened in the two games played between these two TY in Cleve, where LeBron is more "comfortable than on the road and tends to play much better. In those two, both won by Cavs (one by a point, the other in OT), James scored 33 and 38 points, and the total # of points scored were 227 and 213 (although to be fair, we note that the one for 213 points included 29 scored in OT). We also note that in their games since ASB (All Star break) visiting > 500 teams, Boston averaged 200 total points in those road games, and had varying totals results, including 242 total points at Denver and 219 at New Orleans, as well as a shockingly low 172 at Phoenix and a low 184 at both SA and Dallas. But what is significant is that four of these five totals results were easily over the totals line for this game. Similarly, Cavs played only three good teams at home since the trade in late february, with an average of 182.5 points scored in those three -- 199 total points scored vs NO, 187 vs Orlando, and just 162 in a brick fest vs Detroit, with two of the three going under, but also two of the three totals results being over 176 points.
What happened in LYs Cavs-Pistons NBA East series final reminds us (at least totals wise) of what seems to be unfolding in this series -- Cavs dropped games 1 and 2 by identical scores of 79-76, for 155 total points scored in each, and as a result, the totals line was chopped down low enough by the line maker for the three series games in Cleveland that two of those three actually went over, despite having only 178 and 180 points scored in the two overs -- both over wins were due to line value on the over, and we could easily see the same thing happening in this series.
One final item of discussion, about what to do when trends conflict with line value, with this game as a case in point. On one hand, most of the tendencies of both Cavs and Celtics in the situation for this game 3 point to the under-- such as the teams combined totals record vs > .500 teams being 31-49 to the under, the teams combined home/road totals record (Boston road, Cleve home) being 39-48 to the under, the teams combined totals record being just 46- 63 to the under after a Boston win and Cleve loss, and the two teams having a combined 38-57 to the under when playing on one day of rest, as they are here, with those four key totals factors adding up to a 58.5% probability for the under in this game. But one also has to consider that in many of the games making up these records, Boston was at home and/or Cavs were on the road, which is not the case for this game, and also that many of these games were played with a totals line significantly higher than the 176 line for this game. For example, although as noted above, the two teams have a combined record of 38-57 to the under when playing on one day of rest, the average total number of points scored in those 95 games was 188.5, which is 12 points above this games totals line, so what at first looks like an under tendency is actually more of a plus for the over, given this games low totals line -- again, line value.
Earlier we mentioned that we had a teaser recommendation, which is to tease Boston (from +1 up to +6) with the over, also teasing the totals line down to an even lower 171, as we expect this to be a hard fought, close game which could be won by either team, but not likely by more than a couple of points.
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line: -1.5 Over/Under: 175 Reason: The Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be gunning for a playoff victory on Saturday night when they meet at Quicken Loans Arena. Oddsmakers currently have the Cavaliers listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Celtics, while the game's total is sitting at 175. The Celtics limited Cleveland to just 36 points in the first half Thursday, as they defeated the Cavaliers 89-73 to take a 2-0 lead in their second-round series. The Celtics easily covered the 8.5-point spread at TD Banknorth Garden, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 177.5. Paul Pierce led the Celtics with 19 points, while Kevin Garnett had 13 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double in the win. LeBron James had 21 points, five rebounds, and six assists for the Cavaliers in the loss. Team records: Boston: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS Cleveland: 45-37 SU, 37-45 ATS Boston most recently: When playing on Saturday are 5-5 Before playing Cleveland are 7-3 After playing Cleveland are 7-3 After a win are 7-3 Cleveland most recently: When playing on Saturday are 4-6 Before playing Boston are 6-4 After playing Boston are 6-4 After a loss are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Boston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland Boston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games on the road Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Boston The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games
Gina
Boston Celtics (72-19) at Cleveland Cavaliers (49-41)
Boston without doubt is the better team, but hasn’t been successful against the Cavaliers in Cleveland. Expect King James and his crew to make Game 3 a hard fought fight tonight on their home court. Boston has dropped six straight at Cleveland, going 2-4 ATS.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons +5½
Cleveland Cavaliers -1½
MLB
Oakland Athletics (22-15) at Texas Rangers (17-20)
The Texas Rangers have won four straight and will try for their fourth straight shutout when they host the Oakland Athletics. Texas has won five of the last six meetings at home versus Oakland and will send Kevin Millwood to the hill. The right-hander has struggle in his last three starts, but went 2-0 with a 5.55 ERA in four starts at Rangers Ballpark this season. Texas has won seven of Millwood's last 8 starts at home, but have dropped four of his last five versus Oakland. He is 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA in 10 career starts against Oakland. The A's counter with Dana Eveland. The southpaw is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA. Oakland has won five of Eveland’s last 7 starts. He has never faced Texas.
Go with the Rangers to continue their
Texas Rangers
Johnny Guild
Boston Celtics (72-19) at Cleveland Cavaliers (49-41)
Tonight's game is another crucial Game 3 battle with the home team down 0-2. Cleveland has beaten Boston in the last five clashes at Quicken Loans Arena. Keep in mind! The Celtics were defeated in all three road game against the Hawks in the Quarterfinals. Look for LeBron James to step up tonight in front of his home crowd. Take the Cavaliers to seize an imperative home victory against the powerful Celtics.
Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5
Handicappers World
Pirates -115
Mariners +110
Magic -5
Root
Chairman - Pittsburgh
Millionaire - Detroit Pistons
Momey Maker - Oakland
Insiders - Florida
DOC'S AFL
4 Unit Play.Take Over 101 ½ in Columbus @ Kansas City
Both of these teams will not be making the playoffs, but this posted total is way too low considering how weak the Brigade defense has been this season. Kansas City is currently 15th in the league allowing over sixty points per game. The Destroyers have a decent QB in Matt Nagy and he should be able to reach sixty points per game and thus the over is the proper side to consider. He already has 43 touchdowns on the season and after playing Dallas last week, they are ready to light-up the scoreboard on Sunday.
Fairway Jay
Marlins/Nationals Over 9.5 3 units