BEN BURNS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
I believe Milwaukee is getting way too much respect here and that we're getting excellent value with the Nationals. The Brewers ARE a pretty good team. However, that's only IF/WHEN they're playing at Milwaukee. They are NOT a good team on the road. Indeed, they're 2-5 on their current road trip and are now 11-17 on the road for the season. That means they're winning roughly 39 percent of their road games thus far. That's actually pretty good when compared to their road record the past couple of seasons. Dating back to the starts of the 2006 season, they're now a dismal 70-120 (-44.7 units vs. the moneyline!) their last 190 road games. That's less than 37 percent. That includes a money-burning 14-27 (-17) mark when playing on the road with a line ranging from +100 to -125.
Today, the Brewers send Seth McClung to the mound. You may remember this guy from the American League a couple of years ago. Then again, he didn't do much of anything very memorable. Granted, he's been pitching well in relief lately. However, let's not forget that he hasn't started since 2006 and that in 37 previous starts, he 12-20 with an awful 6.17 ERA
As for the Nationals, they grabbed yesterday's opener by a score of 5-1 and have now won three of their past five. They've been competitive at home and a victory today will pull them back to the 500 mark here. Not that they should need any, but this opportunity should help provide the Nationals with some additional motivation. They send John Lannan to the mound and he's been absolutely superb of late. Over his last seven starts, the 23 year old southpaw is 4-2 with a stellar 2.55 ERA, giving up one earned run or less in five of those seven games. Last time out, he allowed a mere four hits and one run, through 7 1/3 innings, en route to a 2-1 win at Baltimore. During that outing he threw 71 strikes to just 34 balls (5 Ks, 1 walk) which prompted manager Manny Acta to say: "He threw 70 percent of his pitches for strikes. That's Greg Maddux-like on his good days. He hit the glove all day. Also we were getting quick outs. The kid deserves all the credit."
Considering that the Nationals are now a slight underdog, it's worth noting that they're 8-1 the last nine times they played at home with a line ranging from +100 to +125 and that they're a highly profitable 43-28 (+18.5) in that role since 2006. Consider backing Lannan and the home team.
MR A's
NBA
Detroit Pistons - 5
Over - 175.5
JOHNNY GUILD
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
A close defensive fight is likely. Boston is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes at the Palace of Auburn Hills, but the Celtics' winless road record in the playoffs, 0-6 ATS, renders the Pistons at home to be the smart bet. Take Detroit as a 5-point home favorite. They play well at home and have taken ten of the last 12 meetings against the Celtics in Motown.
Detroit Pistons - 5
Mike Rose
MLB Brewers/Nats Over 9 3*
NBA Boston Celtics 3*
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
OVER 10 Minnesota and Detroit
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Robertson -154
Mike Rose
MLB Brewers/Nats Over 9 3*
NBA Boston Celtics 3*
Brian Mac
5 units OVER PITT/MIL
5 units OVER FL/SF
Michael Cannon
25 Dime
PISTONS
Take the Pistons minus the points over the Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Detroit did exactly what I expected in its Game 2 win at Boston. They were back in the groove after a week layoff before Game 1 and dissected the Celtics with a balanced scoring attack and relentless defense.
Now they’re back home where they know they can put a stranglehold on the series.
Boston hasn’t won on the road yet this season in the playoffs and now they have to come into the Palace and pull it off.
Sorry, I don’t see it happening.
The Pistons are too deep and too balanced for Boston to pull off that feat.
Just look at the numbers. The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, including 3-1 ATS at home. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-6 SUATS on the road this playoff season.
The straight-up winner is also on a 6-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
I can give you all the numbers to back this up, but it could take all day.
The simple fact is the Pistons are at home with an opportunity to take control of this series. With each passing day Chauncey Billups is getting healthier as well. Detroit has always had quality depth and balance in its scoring and this postseason is no exception.
Take the Pistons minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
10 Dime
CUBS (With Marquis as listed pitcher)
Take the Cubs for the road win tonight over the Pirates.
It’s getting ridiculous how dominant the Cubs are over the Pirates in these matchups.
The Cubs are 9-1 against the Pirates this season, 4-0 in Pittsburgh and 12-1 in the last 13 meetings.
That’s dominance rarely seen on the major league stage.
Jason Marquis will start for the Cubs and his only two wins on the season have come at the Pirates expense.
The Pirates will start left-hander Phil Dumatrait and the Cubs are hitting a robust .305 against southpaws this season.
Take the Cubs as they grab the road win.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
You want to know how wacky the 2008 MLB season has been? We can now make statements like "Tampa Bay will be a very rude host." Tonight's victim is the Baltimore Orioles, who send Steve Trachsel and his 3-24 TSR as a road underdog of +150 to +175 to the hill. Tampa is a perfect 10-0 as a home favorite of greater than -150 this season and that continues tonight!
Play on: Tampa Bay
Nelly
St. Louis + over Los Angeles
Brad Penny is a go-against pitcher right now as his recent results have been awful, including allowing 20 runs over his past three starts. Penny owns a 5.50 ERA in home games and he is walking more batters than usual. Batters have a .307 average against Penny this season and he will face a hot hitting St. Louis team that stole the first game of the series last night. The Cardinals are backed by Kyle Lohse who has been a pleasant surprise with many high quality outings this year. St, Louis has won seven of the last nine games at Dodger Stadium while dominating this series in the last five years. Penny has not proven worthy of heavy favoritism and St. Louis has been the better team so far in 2008.
Tom Freese
Boston at Oakland
Boston is 23-7 their last 30 Saturday games and they are 7-1 their last 8 games overall. The Red Sox are 30-12 the last 42 starts made by Josh Beckett and they are 11-4 with Beckett vs. AL West foes. Beckett has a better than 7 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts and he is 15-5 his last 20 May starts. Oakland is 3-7 their last 10 games overall and they are 2-6 in Game 2 of a series. The A's are 1-6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 1-7 their last 8 games as underdogs. PLAY ON BOSTON w/Beckett
Terron Chapman
Arizona D-Backs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Arizona D-Backs
The Arizona Diamondbacks continued their recent dominance of the Atlanta Braves last night and we'll back them to do so once again this afternoon. The D-Backs are 9-2 the last 11 meetings between these two and have won seven of their last eight there.
Randy Johnson will toe the rubber for D-Backs off one of his best outings of the season. The 44 year old lefty allowed just six hits and no earned runs in seven innings pitched in a 4-0 win over Detroit. He will be opposed by Jorge Campillo who will be pitching on just three days rest for Atlanta. Good for us because in his career he's allowed opponents a batting avg. of .346 and an OPS of .875 on three days rest. The D-Backs have struggled at the plate this year against righties, but that might be offset this afternoon with a pitcher on short rest.
The D-Backs found their offense last night erupting for five first inning runs en route to an 11-1 win. The Braves on the other hand struggled against lefty Doug Davis and will be in a tough spot when they face another southpaw this afternoon. We'll look for the D-Backs to continue their momentum and play up to their potential. Play on the Arizona Diamondbacks for 1 unit.
JIMMY SIRODY
Diamondbacks at Braves
Prediction: Under
One almost has to bet the under Saturday in the matinee matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves no matter what pitchers are on the mound. Arizona has been on the low side in 46 of 57 on the road when the total was between 8½ and 10 and in 25 of 32 when the number was between nine and 9½. In addition they have tumbled under in 14 of 18 when facing teams from the NL-East and in 24 of 35 day games. The NL-West leaders have averaged three runs and are hitting .214 in their last seven games prior to Friday's series opener. Atlanta has lagged under in 30 of 41 when the total is between 8½ and 10 and in 18 of 24 when it's between nine and 9½. The Braves have snuck under in 14 of their last 19 against lefties while averaging 3.7 runs per game and in 10 of their last 14 day trips to the post. Randy Johnson is fresh off seven shutout innings against Detroit at Chase Field. Jorge Campillo impressed in his first major league start last Tuesday when he blanked the New York Mets over six innings while allowing just three hits. Play the under.
JORGE GONALEZ
Giants at Marlins
Prediction: Marlins
The Florida Marlins will look to bounce back after losing to the Giants 8-2 on Friday night. Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball, the Marlins are in first place in the National League East. The Giants are 12-25 in their last 37 games. The Giants are 3-10 as underdogs and will be facing a resilient Marlins team that is 8-3 in their last 11 games. The Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain is 2-12 on the road when the total is between 7.0 and 8.5. Take the Marlins here to outscore the Giants
Chuck Franklin
Tonight I'll be on the Cubs and Jason Marquis over the Pirates and lefty Phil Dumatrait. Chicago has amassed the NL's best record because they have won nine of 10 games against the lowly Pirates. They have outscored Pittsburgh 69-38 in those games.
Marquis has only two wins this season, but both have been against the Pirates, including beating Dumatrait in his last start. He is 7-5 lifetime against Pittsburgh. Dumatrait is now 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA in his career versus the Cubs. Chicago is batting .305 against lefties this season.
Chicago has won five of the last six when facing a losing team. With Marquis on the mound, the Cubs are 5-2 if listed as the favorite. The Pirates are 1-4 the last five games played and only 8-21 the last 29 against the NL Central.
Specify the pitchers as listed and take the Cubs to the bank!
3* CHICAGO