SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (27-27) at N.Y. Mets (26-27)
The Mets and Dodgers continue their four-game weekend series at Shea Stadium, with Chad Billingsley (4-6, 3.68 ERA) set to take the ball for L.A. opposite struggling Mike Pelfrey (2-6, 5.33) in a battle of young right-handers.
After scoring just seven runs in losing the first four games of this seven-game road trip, Los Angeles busted out the bats in a 9-5 victory on Friday, halting a five-game road losing skid. Still, Joe Torre’s club is in the midst of a 2-6 funk, having been held to one run or less in five of the six defeats. The Dodgers have lost 19 of their last 28 games on Saturday.
The Mets had a three-game winning streak end with Friday’s loss, and they’re now just 4-8 in their last 12. New York is now 15-11 at Shea Stadium this season.
Los Angeles holds a slim 3-2 edge in the season series, but is still just 2-5 in its last seven games at Shea Stadium.
Pelfrey dropped to 0-6 in his last six trips to the mound with Monday’s 7-3 home loss to Florida, as he allowed six runs (four earned) on six hits and three walks in just four innings. The Mets are 0-7 in the youngster’s last seven outings, with Pelfrey allowing at least four runs in five of those contests. Going back further, New York is 5-16 in Pelfrey’s last 21 outings, including 0-4 in his last four at Shea Stadium.
At home this season, Pelfrey is 2-4 with a 3.60 ERA in six starts. Today marks his first career start against Los Angeles.
Billingsley was a tough-luck loser in Chicago on Monday, giving up four hits and two runs (both on a first-inning home run) over six innings, as L.A. fell 3-1 to the Cubs. Billingsley is 4-2 with a 2.13 ERA in his last six outings, allowing two runs or fewer in five of the games. He’s also gone at least six innings in six of his last seven trips to the bump.
Billingsley is just 2-3 despite a decent 3.68 ERA in five starts on the highway. Also, his lone career start against New York came at Dodger Stadium on May 5, and he limited the Mets to a single run on five hits and four walks in six innings, winning 5-1.
The under is 4-1 in Billingsley’s last five outings, including the May 5 start against the Mets, while Pelfrey has followed a 5-1 “under” streak by topping the total in his last two starts.
L.A. has followed up an 8-0 “under” run by topping the total in the first two games of this series. Also, the over is 6-1-1 in New York’s last eight overall and 11-3-1 in its last 16 at Shea. The over is also 4-0 in the last four battles between these clubs this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (30-24) at Tampa Bay (33-22)
Scott Kazmir (4-1, 1.50) tries for his fifth straight outstanding start when he leads the Rays against Javy Vazquez (5-3, 3.52) and the White Sox in the third game of this four-game series at Tropicana Field.
Chicago took Thursday’s series opener 5-1, but Tampa Bay came back Friday and got a run in the bottom of the ninth to win 2-1. The Rays have alternated wins and losses in their last five, but they’re 16-6 in their last 22, including 12-3 at home. In fact, dating to April 22, Tampa Bay has won 18 of 21 at Tropicana Field.
Meanwhile, despite Friday’s setback, Chicago is still on a 12-4 run, going 8-2 on the road during this stretch. Also, the White Sox still lead the season series against the Rays 3-2, and they’re 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, including 7-2 at Tropicana Field.
Kazmir missed the first five weeks of the season while recovering from an elbow injury, and in his first start back, he lasted just four innings at Boston, giving up four runs (three earned) in a 7-3 road loss. Since then, the southpaw is 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA in four starts. During the winning streak, Kazmir has surrendered a total of two runs, 13 hits and seven walks with 27 strikeouts in 26 innings.
Kazmir’s most recent outing on Monday was his best of the season, as he limited the Rangers to a run on three hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven innings, cruising to a 7-3 home victory. With that win, he improved to 3-0 with a ridiculous 0.47 ERA in three starts at Tropicana Field. Finally, against the White Sox in his brief career, Kazmir is 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA, though he did give up four runs in each of his two starts versus Chicago in 2007, winning 11-5 on the road and losing 5-1 at home.
Vazquez gave up three runs on nine hits (two home runs) in six innings on Monday at Cleveland, failing to get a decision as Chicago rallied for a 6-3 victory, improving to 4-0 in Vazquez’s last four starts. The veteran hurler has pitched at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. Including one suspended game, the Sox are 7-3 with Vazquez on the mound this year, including 4-2 on the road, where the veteran right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA.
Vazquez dominated the Rays in a 9-2 road win on April 18, allowing tow runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings. He’s 5-2 with a 4.48 ERA in 10 career starts versus Tampa.
The over is 8-2 with Vazquez on the hill this year, including 4-2 on the road. Meanwhile, Kazmir’s start against the Rangers on Monday hurdled the total, ending a 3-0 “under” streak with the lefty on the hill.
The first two games of this series have stayed low, making the under 9-1 in the last 10 series meetings, including 4-0 in the last four. Also, for Chicago, the under is on streaks of 22-9 overall (12-5 last 17), 13-4 as an underdog and 11-1 on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Tampa has followed a four-game “over” streak with a three-game “under” run. The under is also 9-3 in the Rays’ last 12 against the A.L. Central and 17-6 in the last 23 games played at the Trop.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
The Prez
Robbie Lawler -240
Only hours away from what many feel could be MMA’s platform to mainstream success it’s hard to believe a potential barn burner for the Middleweight Championship has gone under the radar.
With all the attention and media focusing on Elite-Xc’s poster fighters; Gina Carano, Phil Baroni and Kimbo Slice, Middleweight Champion and MMA veteran “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler finds himself in a rare advantage of defending a title without the customary exterior responsibilities or pressures. Lawler (15-4 overall) since his departure from the UFC accumulated a 6-2 record and is 4-0 LT4. Robbie has fought some really quality fighters and his last defeat was against the always tough Jason Miller in the 3rd by submission.
Scott Smith walks into this fight with a 13-4 overall record and is riding a solid 3-1 LT4. Smith is extremely heavy handed with 11 of his 13 wins by TKO. Smith much like Lawler has enjoyed some success after his 3 fight stints with the UFC where he fell 0-3. Smith has good hands and decent counter striking. Smith at any point can connect and hurt an opponent from any angle. He’s very dangerous and has the greatest opportunity of his career Saturday night. Many including myself feel Smith hasn’t earned a title shot and is lacking the overall skill set and big fight experience to win versus a savvy powerful striker such as Lawler.
Lawler over the last few years has matured in the ring and is utilizing an all around skill set that is setting the bar in his division. I have seen great improvement in his ring presence, Lawler’s run and gun striking style years ago has developed into a methodical and patience stand-up that allows him to dictate the fight and be in complete control. Combine this with his ground training and takedown defence in his new camp which he has a big part in with Matt Hughes, I cannot see how Smith can bring anything to the ring that will allow him to win beyond 1 lucky punch. Normally in a situation like this where 2 heavy hands are pitted against each other we would take the dog value but not tonight.
Lawler successfully defends his title against an opponent who isn’t quite ready for the title pressure, skill set and maturity of a new and improved relaxed Robbie Lawler.
1 UNIT Play on Lawler
Matt Fargo
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay remains the biggest surprise this season and it is turning into a very public team. The Rays own the third best record in baseball at home so this is no doubt a tough place for visitors but of the two series they have lost at home this season, one came against the White Sox. Chicago posted a victory in Game One of this set before losing last night in the bottom of the ninth. The Rays have plated only three runs in the first two games of this series and have averaged only two rpg in the five meetings this year.
The White Sox are playing good in their own right as they took their series in Cleveland and have now won 12 of their last 16 games to remain in first place in the American League Central. They are doing it with clutch hitting and solid pitching, the latter being most effective having allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of those 16 games. Playing on the road is far from an issue as Chicago has won eight of its last 10 games to move two games over .500 away from home.
As mentioned, the pitching had been rock solid for Chicago and on that list of consistencies has been Javier Vazquez. He has tossed three straight quality outings while seven of his 11 starts this year have fallen into that category. One of those includes a start in Tampa Bay, where he went 6.1 innings, allowing two runs on six hits in a 9-2 White Sox victory. That made it two straight quality starts at Tropicana Field where he is 3-1 in his career.
The Rays counter with Scott Kazmir who has definitely risen to the category of elite starter. He has started just five games this season and after struggling in the first, the last four have been complete gems, allowing only two runs total in those four outings. I’m not playing the due factor but he could be in for a poorer showing. Kazmir is 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox but last season was a struggle as he posted a 5.84 ERA in two starts. Chicago is 10-6 this year against lefty starters. Play Chicago White Sox 1 Unit
BRAD DIAMOND
Play on: Los Angeles over Toronto
Veteran pitcher John Lackey (1-1, 2.05) of LA goes up against sterling right hander Shaun Marcum (5-3, 2.64) of Toronto in what should be a low scoring defensive battle out on the left coast. Marcum has pitched well against the Angels, but Lackey is perfect life time versus the Jays with a 6-0 mark. Further to which, the technical edges follow the Angels who are 28-13 in Lackey’s starts with five days of rest and 9-0 in game #2 of series.
James Patrick Sports
Sabercats vs. Avengers
LA has gone Under the TOTAL in 8 of 11 home games and this Saturday’s opponent, the San Jose Sabercats have gone Under in 9 of 11 games versus the Western Division. Our Saturday selection in Arena Football League action is San Jose – Los Angeles UNDER the Total
Dave Cokin
Dodgers @ Mets
Play: Dodgers -115
I didn't foresee the offensive explosion at Shea Friday night, won impressively by the Dodgers. But LA should keep it rolling here as they get a chance to tee off on the serves of Mike Pelfrey. The Mets righty has been anything but sharp, and to make matters worse, NY seems to play its worst ball when he's on the mound. Chad Billingsley has been tremendous when he's been able to command his pitches, and that's been more often than not of late. I'll back the Dodgers here.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cleveland w/Sabathia
Note: The Tribe looks to make it two straight when they send ace southpaw C.C. Sabathia to the hill in Kansas City tonight. The big left hander is back in commanding form with 5 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 9-3 in his last 12 starts against the Royals, including 5-1 in his last six in this park. Look for Sabathia to improve to 15-5 in his last 20 teams starts in May here tonight.
Robert Ross
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Prediction: over
Both starters here have control problems. Billingsley has walked 31 in 58-plus IP as he works on a 3.95 road ERA. Pelfrey has walked 24 in 49 IP and is pitching to a 6.32 ERA over his last three starts. Supporting angle says to Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (LA DODGERS) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season-NL (48-18 since 1997, 72.7%).
Take this one over the total!
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
I'm laying the price with the Tribe on Saturday. Royals fans probably realized this season's start was too good to last. KC enters Saturday's action on a 12-game losing skid. The bats have gone completely quiet, scoring an average of 2.67 runs per game during the losing streak. And, if we take away their 6-0 mark against the Tigers, KC is just 15-34 against the rest of the league. Today, they have to face a surging C.C. Sabathia. After a horrible start to the season, the big southpaw has now allowed just nine earned runs and 52 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 40 1/3 IP. That's a sizzling hot 2.01 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. I expect those numbers to get even smaller against a Royals team that's 1-5 in home night games against lefties, scoring just 2.33 runs per game in the process. Kyle Davies makes his season debut for the Royals. I don't imagine his numbers will spark much fear in the Indians. After all, in three career starts against the Tribe, Davies owns a 12.27 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, and .365 BAA! Yes, we're talking about a road team here, but the price, even where it is, is way too low considering the matchups and cirumstances. I'll back the Indians on Saturday.
Stephen Nover
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Colorado Rockies
No one is referring to Ryan Dempster as Ryan Dumpster this season. At least yet. A shaky closer last season, Dempster has had eight quality starts for the Cubs this year.
But Dempster has been fortunate. The Cubs have scored a lot of runs for him. He's been pitching above his talent level.
The Rockies have lost five in a row and have multiple injuries. The Cubs have won five in a row. However, at better than two-to-one odds, Colorado is a play for me. I'm not sold on Dempster as this big of a favorite, plus the Cubs' two best relief pitchers have fatigue issues.
Closer Kerry Wood has pitched during four of the last five days. He's thrown 31 pitches in the past two games. Setup man Carlos Marmol has pitched during the last two days, too. Dempster has an 8.42 ERA in seven lifetime starts versus Colorado.
Rockies starter Glendon Rusch is a veteran lefty, who pitched for the Cubs from 2004-2006.
Because of erratic wind conditions at Wrigley Field, which can bring a lot of randomness into the equation, it's usually not a good idea to lay a huge price like this.
Lucky Leprechaun Sports
Atlanta -132 over CINCINNATI
The Braves are 12-5 in their last 17 games as a favorite and 4-1 in Jurrjens' last 5 starts, while the Reds are 3-10 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog. The Braves lost a tough one last night and they have struggled on the road this year, but I feel they have the edge in this one. Jair Jurrjens has been solid for Atlanta this year, posting a 5-3 record with a 2.86 ERA, including a 1-0 mark with a 2.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. His record on the road isn't great at 1-3 (3.77 ERA), but that's mostly due to the fact that the Braves don't score for him as they are averaging just 2.2 rpg in his road starts. He should get some run support today as the Braves will be taking on a struggling Josh Fogg. Josh has spent much of the year in the pen, but when he has started it has been bad. In 3 starts this year Josh has a 1-2 record with an absurd 13.09 ERA, lasting just 3.7 innings per outing. Not good when facing this Braves squad that can put some runs on the board. The Braves struggle to score on the road at times, but they do score 5.5 rpg vs righties and in day games. Atlanta should pick on Fogg early and often and score more than enough runs to get a rare road win for themselves.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at N.Y. METS -105
We've hit six of our last eight FREE plays on the diamond and today we're in the Big Apple for a play on the Mets as they host the Dodgers.
Have to go with the home team in this one as the Mets take on the Dodgers, who have won just twice in their last eight games.
New York has Mike Pelfrey (2-6, 5.33 ERA) on the hill facing Chad Billingsley (4-6, 3.68) today. These two teams have split the first two games of this series and the Dodgers have struggled at the plate, scoring one run or less in five of their last six losses.
The Mets had won three in a row until Friday's loss and they are 5-2 in their last seven against the Dodgers at Shea Stadium.
Pelfrey hasn't been horrible at home this season, going 2-4 with a respectable 3.60 ERA in six starts. He's never seen the Dodgers before and on the opposite side, Billingsley has only faced the Mets once.
The Dodgers were in the midst of a five-game road losing streak until Friday's win, and they have lost 19 of their last 28 games on Saturday.
We're playing the home team in this one to get the cash.
4* N.Y. METS
Chuck Franklin
New York -155 at MINNESOTA
Minnesota starter Boof Bonser (2-6) has a huge 6.16 ERA for the season. In his last start he allowed nine runs in just three innings. His next start could be at the Triple-A level. He is 0-2 with a whopping 9.31 ERA in his only two starts against the Yankees.
New York is back on track, winning seven of the last nine, averaging 6.7 runs per game in that stretch. Chien-Ming Wang is 6-2 on the year with a solid 3.82 ERA, but an even more impressive 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three career starts against Minnesota.
The Twins have lost nine of the last 12 versus New York and they are only 1-4 the last five played against them in Minnesota. They have won only three times in the last 10 Bonser starts when facing an AL East team. The Yankees are 21-6 in Wang's last 27 starts against the AL Central and 20-7 in his last 27 road starts.
Specify the pitchers as listed and take the Yankees to the bank!
3* NEW YORK
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds May
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Reason: At 3:55 pm, our member selection is on the Atlanta Braves with Jair Jurrgens over Cincy and Josh Fogg. Fogg will be making his first start since mid-April, and he's put up awful numbers so far this year. In 3 starts, he has compiled a 9.00 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP. His mound opponent, Jair Jurrgens, has pitched quite well this year. The Braves have won each of his last three starts, and for the season, his ERA is 2.86 with a 1.24 WHIP. These two teams met in Atlanta earlier this month, and the Braves swept the Reds out of town, winning all three games by a combined score of 25-8. Look for a blowout win this afternoon by the Braves.
Ben Burns
Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
Reason: The Penguins got back in the series with a critical win in Game 3. Sidney Crosby led the way with a pair of goals. The Pens have been nearly unbeatable here in recent months and that gives them a ton of confidence and makes them extremely dangerous. Consider a play on PITTSBURGH.