BETTORSWORLD
PADRES +105
BLUE JAYS +124
Tony Karpinski
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Cleveland Indians
KC has lost 12 in a row and just look clueless on the field. My 4 yr daughters Tee-ball team plays with more intensity and pride. Both of these clubs have fallen on hard times as has last years Cy Young winner CC Sabathia, he is 3 - 6 with a 4.74 ERA for the season, he is not broken he just needed to be fixed. In his last four starts Sabathia is 2 - 1 with a 1.20 ERA, like everybody on the Indians staff he could use a little run support. They will give him the support he needs today as the Royals will try Kyle Davies today. Davies just called up from Triple A as Brett Tomko is relegated to the bullpen. Davies did not make the team coming out of spring training, he was 0 - 3 vs. Cleveland last year with an ERA of 12.27. The Royals slip for the thirteenth straight time with this loss.
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia – This is one of those rare times that the AiS grades a large favorite as a 3* graded play. Remember though it is always valid and for very strong and extensive reasons. Florida bats are hitting just 221 with a 312 OBP over their past 7 games. More alarming is that they have struck out 74 times in 244 AB during this stretch and now to have to face one of the best strikeout starters in the NL. Phils bats are just sickly good hitting 311 with a 389 OBP, 33 EB, 12 HR, and scoring 9.4 RPG over their past 7 games. In case Hamels does get in trouble he can rely on the BEST bullpen in the Majors. The bullpen has been rock solid sporting a 2.79 ERA and a 1.306 WHIP on the season and a 2.30 ERA and 1.276 WHIP over their past 7 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 142-32 for 82% making 71.9 units since 1997. Play against road dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more and is now facing an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. With just a little more offense Hamels could have 8 or even 9 wins. Still his team is 8-3 in home starts and against divisional foes he has been lights out posting a 1.45 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 4 starts. Hamels is 19-3 (+14.0 Units) against the money line versus poor baserunning teams that are averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Philadelphia.
BIG AL
AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTALS WINNER
Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals 'under' the total. The Royals have decided to make a change and put the struggling righthander Brett Tomko (2-6 with a 6.11 ERA) in the bullpen and try some other options in the rotation. Those "other options" include calling up 24 year-old righthander Kyle Davies from the minors and handing him the ball at home for his first Major league start in his first Major League appearance of 2008. Davies has certainly earned this trip to the Kauffman Stadium mound, as he was tearing up the Pacific Coast League with a 6-2 record and a league-best ERA of 2.06. Davies is certainly no stranger to this role as he has 56 Major League starts in his last three years in professional ball. He is rewarded for his accomplishments at the Minor League level by having to face none-other-than the American League Cy Young award winner, CC Sabathia, in his first start of 2008. Sabathia got off to a very rough start this year, but has really settled down recently, and is 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Eight of the last ten games played between these two teams have gone a total of eight runs or less. Take the 'under'.
Cleveland /Kansas City Under
Indian Cowboy
(POD) Minnesota Lynx -3
(Reg) LA Angels UNDER 7.5
Jeffmoney
Phillies -1.5, -110 (pod)
Braves -125
Tigers -105
Redsox -130
Angels Un 7.5, -120
Mr A's
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
The struggling Colorado Rockies have dropped their last five games and have played pitable away from home, just 8-21 on the road this season. Contrary, Chicago Cubs have been hot, winning 13 of their last 19. Look for Chicago to pound the the Rockies this afternoon at Wrigley. Chicago has won nine of the last 12 versus Colorado and the last six in Chicago. Take the Cubs. Chicago has won right-hander Ryan Dempster last 8 home starts.
Chicago Cubs - 240
GINA
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals have lost the last five in Cleveland and right-hander Kyle Davies is 0-3 with a 12.27 ERA, in three career starts against the Indians. Go with Cleveland to hand the collapse Royals their thirteen straight defeat. Southpaw C.C. Sabathia is 14-9 with a 3.35 ERA in 30 career starts against the Royals, including 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts this season. The Indians are 5-1 in Sabathia's last 6 road starts versus the Royals.
Cleveland Indians -165
JB's Computer Picks
Cincinnati Reds +120
Milwaukee Brewers -180 * * *
New York Yankees -160
Texas Rangers -110
Best Bet * * *
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
STRONG 5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Boston w/Lester -131
Dave Malinsky 4*
GAME: Nationals (HT) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (HT)
SPORT: MLB First 5 Innings
PICK: Under
After these two played to a series opening Over on Friday we have been left with outstanding value to back Brandon Webb and Jason Bergmann in a setting in which we can call for each to pitch particularly well against the opposing lineup. And the circumstances of the setting tell us that the First Five Innings is the best way to take advantage.
Webb is off of a rare bad outing at Atlanta, but there is no reason to be alarmed - the Braves can load up a lineup with quality left-handers, and might be his single biggest challenge in the N.L. right now. Washington is at the other end of that spectrum. Webb has simply dominated right-handed hitters this season, allowing an anemic .186, with far more strikeouts (38) than hits allowed (27), and only one home run in 145 at-bats. As for left-handed punch, the Nationals simply do not have any. They also lack experience against Webb, with six of the eight position starters having less than 10 career at-bats. With a chip on his shoulder off of the Atlanta defeat, we will call for him to confidently attack this lineup on the first couple of passes.
We also get fair value here because the pitching forms will show Jason Bergmann at 1-1/4.50 for the season, but those numbers carry little meaning. He got off to a dismal start, so much so that they sent him back down to the Minor’s to find his mechanics. He did that in a significant way, allowing just three runs over 21 innings in his last three starts with Columbus, and since being called back up he has been electric - he has not allowed a single run over 19.2 innings, with a dominating ratio of 22 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed. And with no Diamondback having more than seven career at-bats against him, his form can hold up through the first couple of passes as well.
Making the opening stanzas of this game even better for our purposes is the early local starting time - because of that the roof at Chase Field will be closed for roughly the first 90 minutes of play, which could be the entirety of our involvement. This park continues to play much lower when the roof is closed and the air conditioning is running, and provides the ideal setting to get the offenses off to a slow start. And by making that our focus, we can avoid potential late-inning shenanigans, particularly with a Washington bullpen that has been overworked on this road trip.
Robert Ferringo
6.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Note: This is our Total of the Month.
KELSO
15 Units Red Sox
5 Units Dodgers
4 Units Tigers
3 Units Angels
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
ANOTHER 5000* BASEBALL HOME RUN WINNER
Cleveland w/Sabathia -165
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL DOMINATOR WINNER
LA Angels w/Lackey -132