SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (37-26) at Atlanta (32-30)
A matchup of young pitchers is set for Turner Field tonight, as Kyle Kendrick (5-2, 5,00 ERA) of the Phillies battles Atlanta’s Jo Jo Reyes (2-3, 4.78) in the middle game of a series between N.L. East rivals.
Philadelphia got a run in the top of the ninth and two in the 10th to rally past Atlanta 4-3 in Friday’s opener. The Phillies are 10-2 in their last 12, and they’ve given up just seven runs in their last four contests. Also, Charlie Manuel’s club is on streaks of 5-1 against the N.L. East, 5-2 on the road and 6-0 against a left-handed starter.
Atlanta has alternated wins and losses in its last four games, but is just 6-9 going back to May 23, including 5-4 at home. Still, the Braves are 25-9 at Turner Field this season, the third best home mark in the majors, and they’ve lost two straight home contests just once this year. Also, they’re 7-2 in their last nine against the N.L. East and 21-5 in their last 26 home games against right-handed starters.
The Phillies have won five of the last six series meetings, including taking two of three at home in mid-May in the first series between the clubs this season. The host is 7-4 in the last 11 clashes.
Philadelphia is 8-1 in Kendrick’s last nine trips to the mound, including three straight wins over the Astros (7-5), Rockies (7-4) and Reds (5-4). Despite earning the victory in all three contests, Kendrick wasn’t exactly dominant, posting a 5.60 ERA. For the season, the Phillies are 9-3 when Kendrick starts, including 4-1 on the road, despite the right-hander’s 6.23 ERA as a visitor.
Kendrick outdueled Reyes and Braves at home on May 13, allowing three runs on six hits and four walks in six innings en route to the 5-4 victory. He’s 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA in three lifetime starts the last two seasons against Atlanta.
Reyes is coming off back-to-back quality starts against the Brewers and Marlins, giving up a combined four runs on seven hits and four walks with 13 strikeouts in 13 innings. However, he doesn’t have anything to show for it, losing 1-0 at Milwaukee and getting a no-decision in his team’s 7-5 win over the Marlins on Monday.
The Braves are 4-1 in Reyes’ five starts at Turner Field, with the southpaw posting a 5.25 ERA. Also, in his start at Philadelphia a month ago, Reyes got tagged for all five runs on 11 hits in 6 2/3 innings. It was his first-ever battle against the Phillies.
The over is 8-4 when Kendrick pitches this season, including 5-1 on the road. Conversely, the under is 4-2 in Reyes’ six starts (2-2 at home).
The under is on streaks of 37-17-3 for the Braves overall, 5-0 for the Phillies overall and 11-3 for the Phillies on Saturdays. However, the over is 5-1-1 in the Braves’ last seven home games, 4-2-1 in the Braves’ last seven against the N.L. East, 4-1 in Philly’s last five against the N.L. East and 5-0 in Philly’s last five against southpaw starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (38-24) at Oakland (33-28)
The top two teams in the A.L. West continue a weekend series at McAfee Coliseum, with Jon Garland (5-3, 3.99) set to toe the rubber for the Angels against Oakland’s Greg Smith (3-4, 3.56).
Behind another dominating start from ace John Lackey, Los Angeles took Friday’s series opener 3-1 to extend its winning streak to six in a row while halting Oakland’s four-game winning run. The Angels are now 20-11 on the road this year, while the A’s are 20-14 at McAfee, including 8-3 in the last 11.
The clubs split a four-game series in Los Angeles in the first clashes of 2008 between the clubs. The road team is 6-3 in the last nine series meetings, and the Angels have won four of the last five in Oakland.
The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Blue Jays on Sunday to win 4-3 and get Garland off the hook for a loss. In the outing, Garland gave up three runs on five hits and four walks in five innings. It was his shortest stint since going five innings at Seattle on April 12, a span of nine starts. Also, the Angels are 6-3 in Garland’s last nine outings.
Garland is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA on the road this season, but he’s 3-9 with a 5.01 ERA in 14 career starts against the A’s, including 2-5 with a 3.86 ERA at McAfee Coliseum. In fact, the right-hander’s worst start of the season came at home against Oakland on April 28, as he got lit up for seven runs on 10 hits and three walks in six innings, falling 14-2.
Smith is coming off by far his worst start of the season, as he got rocked for seven runs on seven hits in five innings on Sunday at Texas, though the A’s bailed him out in a 13-8 victory. Oakland is 7-4 in Smith’s 11 outings this year, with the southpaw giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of those contests.
Smith is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA in five home starts this year. However, in his first career start against the Halos on April 29 in L.A., he took a 2-0 loss despite giving up just the two runs on three hits in eight innings.
Since getting crushed in that 14-2 loss to the A’s, Garland has stayed under the total in six consecutive starts. Meanwhile, Smith’s start at Texas on Sunday easily flew over the total, ending a 6-0 “under” run with the 24-year-old on the hill.
For Los Angeles, the under is on runs of 22-7 overall, 8-2 on the road, 7-1 against left-handed starters and 11-1-1 on Saturdays. Conversely, the over is 4-2 in Oakland’s last six overall and 5-1-2 in its last eight on Saturdays.
Finally, the under is 39-16-2 in the past 57 series meetings between these rivals, including 5-0-1 in the last five battles in Oakland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Mike Rose
Philadelphia Soul +4.0
Philadelphia cost AFL bettors in a big way its last time out when it fell at home to the Kansas City Brigade, 54-47, as 17-point home favorites. The shocking loss was their third in their last four overall games, but they played with a number of their superstars sidelined on both sides of the ball during that stretch. Last weeks “Bye” allowed them to lick their wounds and heal up for this crucial Eastern Division clash. QB Tony Graziani, DB Mike Brown, LB Rod Davis, and DL Bryan Save will all be back for this crucial game at Dallas this Saturday night. Philly has won four of its six road games SU and gone 3-3 ATS.
The Desperados seem to have found its stride after picking up decisive wins at both Orlando and Cleveland the last two weeks. The Desperados raised their record to an AFL-best 11-2 on the arm of QB Clint Dolezel, who took advantage of good protection to complete 28-of-38 passes for 252 yards and eight touchdowns. The win allowed Dallas to clinch its third straight playoff appearance. After severely costing AFL bettors from late March to mid May, Dallas secured pointspread victories in each of the last two weeks to claw one game 0ver .500 at 7-6 ATS. They currently sit atop the Eastern Division one game ahead of Philadelphia, but the Soul owns the tiebreaker after they mauled the Desperados at home back in Week 9.
This will be the 10th match-up between these division rivals in the series’ history, and the second this season. Philadelphia embarrassed the Desperados back in Week 9 at home in a game that was televised live on ESPN2 HD. The 57-28 final still doesn’t reflect how dominant Philly was even though they won the game by 29-points and crushed the 4.5-point spread. The 85 combined points saw the under cash with relative ease. Dallas holds 5-4 SU and ATS advantages throughout their first nine battles, and they’re 3-1 SU and ATS when they’ve welcomed the Soul to Dallas.
Overall, this series has been higher scoring with the over cashing in six of the nine games, but the defenses have stepped up of late to allow the under to go 2-1 ATS their L/3 meetings.
The Despo’s certainly look to be the choice in this spot after they were bet from one-point pups at the open to four-point favorites. They get to host the Soul off their “Bye” exactly like Philly did Dallas back in Week 9. Even though the Soul’s scuffled of late, I believe them to be the best team in the Eastern Division if not the entire league. They’ll be playing with a full deck for the first time in a month, and I’m still not sold on Dallas’ mental capacity after they’ve failed in this scenario so many times over the years. If DB Eddie Moten snags another Dolezel pass, look out. Dolezel folded like a cheap suit in their Week 9 battle after Moten made him look like a chump, and Clint has already proven to me that he’s a crybaby and quitter when things don’t go his way. It’s risky after what Philly did to this club earlier this season, but grab the points with the team I believe grades higher in mental capacity.
Ted Sevransky
New York Dragons -1.5
New Orleans is getting far too much credit from the linesmakers for a misleading home victory over the only team in the entire league that has no hope of making the playoffs. Yes, the VooDoo beat Columbus by three touchdowns at home last week, where they are 6-1 this season. But the VooDoo and the Destroyers both scored nine touchdowns on eleven meaningful drives. The difference in the game were a pair of net recoveries on kickoffs for New Orleans (the ultimate ‘lucky’ play) and an interception return for touchdown with no time left on the clock in the first half. New Orleans is still only 1-3 SU in their last four games, and they are just 2-4 SU on the highway, yet they are priced in a pointspread range where they’ll likely need a straight up win to earn a pointspread cover here.
The New York Dragons are trending in the opposite direction right now. Since their 1-4 start, the Dragons are 6-2 SU. Their tremendous defense has held opponents under 50 points in seven of their last nine ballgames. Meanwhile, Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Garcia guided the team to ten touchdowns and a field goal on their eleven meaningful possessions last week. In fact, this offense has averaged 62 points per game in their last four home games, scoring at least 56 each time. Let’s take advantage of yet another bad pointspread in a season full of bad pointspreads from the linesmakers with a play on the Dragons as short home favorites here. Take New York. Current Line: NY -1.5, reduce wager size to half a unit at -3 or higher.
John Ryan
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Play:Kansas City Royals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Kansas City – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 126-116 and has made 61.4 units since 2002. Play on all AL dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season, in June games. KC starter Bannister has struggled most of the season, but pitches very fine in his 6 days starts this season. In these day starts he has posted a 2.16 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP and is 5-1. KC is a solid defensive team and this does not bode well for the Yankees. Note that NYY are 6-12 (-9.0 Units) against the money line versus good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Take KC.
James Patrick Sports
Twins vs. White Sox
Jason Buehrle is 20-11 in his career with a 2.80 ERA against the Twinkies and has been victorious in 7 of his past 9 outings against the Twin Cities Boys. Minnesota is just 3-7 in the Windy City and our Saturday selection in Major League Baseball is Chicago White Sox.
BRAD DIAMOND
Play on: St. Louis (Wainwright) over Houston
The Cards and Astros are usually a tough series to handicap, especially over the last two years. But, on Saturday, St. Louis comes with right hander and veteran Wainwright (1.06 WHIP) as a major edge. The Cards are 5-0 in their last five starts against Houston with Wainwright throwing. Further to which, the Cards are 7-0 with Wainwright versus winning baseball teams. So, with Houston slumping at 1-7 L8 (going into Friday) on the board, I’m backing the visitor.
Robert Ross
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Reason: Good spot to back the M's at a big price. SEATTLE is 30-22 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
Starter BATISTA is 18-7 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Take Seattle!
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Reason: I'm playing the Rangers on Saturday night. Texas loves facing righthanders in home night games this season. They enter tonight's tilt off a series-opening loss to Tampa Bay, but that came against southpaw Scott Kazmir. The Rangers will face Andy Sonnanstine tonight. The Tampa righty has not enjoyed his outings against Texas. Sonnanstine has lost both starts against the Rangers, getting clocked for seven earned runs and 19 base runners in just 9 1/3 innings of work. That's a hefty 6.75 ERA and 2.04 WHIP, not to mention a .370 BAA! He's 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts, overall. As mentioned above, Texas loves this situation. They're crushing righties for 6.8 runs per game in 13 home night starts. Texas righty Scott Feldman has pitched quite well at home this season. In six appearances, including four starts, Feldman is sporting a 3.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .237 BAA! Look for the Rangers to back their solid home pitcher with a decent amount of run support against the struggling TB starter. I'm backing the Rangers to even up the weekend series on Saturday.
Big Al McMordie
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
At 8:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rangers might just have developed the best one-two punch in any lineup in the American League. The emergence of #3 hitter outfielder Josh Hamilton and #4 hitter (also an outfielder) Milton Bradley has been potent all season and downright deadly in the last couple of weeks. Although some young pitching has come through for Texas, it's really the performance of these two, plus the incredible emergence of second baseman Ian Kinsler as one of the best leadoff hitters in the game that has propelled the Rangers to a .500 record, something that you just haven't seen from this team as late as June in any given season. These three players are among the leaders in virtually every important offensive category in the American League, with Bradley leading in batting and slugging percentage, Hamilton leading in home runs and RBI, and Kinsler leading in runs and tied for fourth in stolen bases. With the exception of Hank Blalock, the Rangers' offense is now completely healthy, something that can't be said for Tampa as it just had to place slugging first baseman Carlos Pena on the DL with a finger injury (he joins perennial DL dweller Rocco Baldelli there). Neither starter in tonight's game, Sonnanstine nor Feldman has been particularly effective lately, but it's Sonnanstine who has given up way too many hits this season (92 in just over 74 innings) and if he does that tonight against this lineup, it will be a quick trip to the showers for him. The Rays are 9-20 in their last 29 meetings in Arlington, Texas. Take the Rangers.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels -105 at OAKLAND
The Angels have won six in a row after beating the A's 3-1 on Friday and putting an end to Oakland's four-game winning streak.
Los Angeles is 20-11 on the highway this year and the road team is 6-3 in the last nine series meetings and the Angels have won four of the last five played in the Bay Area. Jon Garland (5-3, 3.99 ERA) goes for the Angels tonight against Oakland's Greg Smith (3-4, 3.56).
Garland is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA on the highway this season and the Angels are 6-3 in his last nine outings. On Sunday, Garland gave up three runs on five hits in five innings but the offense bailed hime out as the Angels got a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays.
Smith got destroyed in his last start, giving up seven runs in five innings in Texas but his offense saved him with a 13-8 victory.
We're going wih the Angels tonight as they continue to put up wins. They aren't blowing teams out but they are doing just enough to get the wins. Let's play them and Garland tonight to score us a road win in Oakland.
3* L.A. ANGELS
Gator Report
MLB 70% Super Situations (MLB Record 17-14 +252 units)
Our MLB 70% Super Situations could be either sides and/or totals from the MLB Card for that particular day. Selections are rated * 1 Unit, ** 2 Units, and *** 3 Units, with Three Units as a Top Selection. >>We will update our records in the next issue of the Gator Report.
MLB (17-14 +252) Saturday: Play On MLB (NL) teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts.41-14 SU last 5 seasons (74.5%) (6-1 TY)
PLAY: * Chicago Cubs -121
MLB Saturday: Play Against MLB (NL) road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher who gives up more than 2.75 walks per start against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season.38-11 SU last 5 seasons (77.6%) (4-1 TY)
PLAY: * Washington -125
Gator's News & Notes
In this edition of Gator's News & Notes we have a few Top MLB Systems that have been cashing in this season.
“Play On” any MLB Home Underdog of +140 or better whose opponent is off a win by 5 or more runs and had 10+ hits and left 5 or more runners on base, 62-74 SU +2495 Units
“Play On” any MLB Home Underdog of +140 or more who is off a 5+ run loss and facing an opponent who is off a 5+ run win in which they had 10+ hits, 43-41 SU +2715 Units
“Play On” any MLB Home Underdog of +140 or more whose opponent is off a road win in which they scored 5 or more runs and left 5 or more runners on base, 131-173 SU +3705 Units
Dave Cokin
Cardinals @ Astros
Play: Cardinals -115
The Cardinals figured to feel the effects of a lengthy Thursday doubleheader at Washington as they traveled to Houston to face the rested Astros Friday night, and that's just the way it played out. But I think there's a good chance for the quick reversal here. I like the idea of backing Cards ace Adam Wainwright against Shawn Chacon, and I'll go ahead and lay the small spot on the road with the Redbirds.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Detroit Tigers
Note: Once again we revert to our Weekend Cheat Sheet for support on this game. That's because the Cheat Sheet informs us the Indians have struggled on the road on weekends this season, dropping 7 of 8 games. With Kenny Rogers 7-1 in his last 8 team starts in June and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts in June, look for the Tigers to even the series here today.
Jim Feist
CHC Cubs and LA Dodgers
Take Under
Dodger stadium is a huge park, one that is tough to hit in. The bats won't like this matchup as Carlos Zambrano and Derek Lowe hook up on the mound. Lowe has had his sinker working, with a 1.23 ERA his last 3 starts. Zambrano has been an ace all season at 8-1 with a 2.51 ERA for the first place Cubs. LA isn't hitting well of late because of injuries. Don't look for any offense, play the Cubs/Dodgers under the total!
Jeffersonsports
St. Louis-107
Arizona-136
San Francisco+115