Scott Rickenbach
Texas Rangers @ New York Mets
PICK: Over
Yesterday’s game stayed just under the total because the Rangers failed to join the “hit parade” in what ended up being a 7-1 blowout win for the Mets. Tonight, both the Rangers and the Mets will be “teeing off” in this one as both Kason Gabbard of Texas and Pedro Martinez of New York should be “giving it up”! The southpaw Gabbard normally might be thought to rate an edge over a Mets lineup that would prefer to see right-handed pitching. However, Gabbard is mired in a miserable stretch right now. The Rangers left-hander has allowed 15 earned runs on 18 hits and 15 walks in his last three starts. He’s only averaged four inning per start and that also means we get the advantage of the Mets “teeing off” on a very poor Rangers bullpen once Gabbard makes his expected early exit.
Martinez is unlikely to fare much better than Gabbard. The Mets right-hander just has not been himself in recent seasons and that has continued this year now that he’s finally healthy enough to be pitching again. The real issue here is whether or not Martinez truly is healthy! He’s allowed 11 earned runs on 21 hits in 14.1 innings of work in his three starts this season. His most recent start seemed like a step backward as he looked worse at San Diego than Martinez had at San Francisco in his prior start. What is most concerning about this for Pedro is that he hasn’t faced powerful lineups since he returned from the disabled list. Neither the Padres nor the Giants are known for their big sticks. In other words, against a powerful Texas lineup today, it’s “look out” time for Mr. Martinez as we expect the Rangers to be lacing line drives all over the place at Shea Stadium tonight. As long as we can keep the rain away from Shea tonight this one should get there in solid fashion for us. Play OVER the total in the New York Mets game as a regular selection.
DAVID MALINSKY 4*
Kansas City Royals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Under
Unlike most Major League venues, the warmer that it gets in Phoenix the lower scoring the games become - once they close the roof at Chase Field and turn the air conditioning on it becomes a entirely different atmosphere. And after these two played scoreless into the 10th last night despite having formless starters Zack Greinke and Doug Davis on the mound, we are calling for more of the same here.
Randy Johnson was on quite a run before losing his cool at Pittsburgh on Monday, and we believe that he gets right back on track here. He walked more Pirates that afternoon (5) than he had in his previous five starts combined (4), but it was a case of him not settling back down after an altercation with Doug Mentkiewicz. Johnson is a “pro’s pro”, and should not only recover from that outing, but should attack the strike zone with a vengeance against an offense that lacks punch, and also experience against him. And a deep and talented Diamondback bullpen comfortably takes care of the latter innings against - despite playing three straight games that went to extra frames, there is not a major fatigue rating to be found.
A prime reason why Arizona has had to go to extra innings often of late is that the offense continues to struggle. The D’backs mustered only five hits last night, none for extra bases in regulation play. They were shut out into the 8th at Shea Stadium on Wednesday, and into the 9th on Thursday, before making things happen against the struggling Met bullpen. Now they run into Luke Hochevar at a time at which the Kansas City right-hander should have his confidence right where we want it, having turned in that solid outing to lead the Royals over the Yankees (six innings, two runs, four hits and no walks). And his trial-by-fire has him more than prepared for what he has to face here. Having already had starts in the Bronx and at Fenway Park, and also against the White Sox when the wind was blowing out, he is stepping way done in class here. And behind him the Royal bullpen also has the arms to keep this from getting silly at any point.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners -200
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (WASHINGTON) - after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, playing on Saturday. This is a 186-84 ML System hitting 68.9% over the last 5 seasons. The Washington Nationals are playing without 4 of their starters and it’s simply going to be too much to overcome. Especially when they have to face one of the most dominant pitchers in the league in Erik Bedard. Bet Seattle at home.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Yankees/Astros UNDER 9.5 Runs
We saw just 3 total runs from these two teams yesterday and I'm expecting another low scoring game with the two hurlers we have on the mound today. The Under is 21-6-1 in the Yankees last 28 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-3 in the Yankees last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Under is 5-0 in Mussina's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest and 4-0-1 in Mussina's last 5 interleague starts. The Under is 5-0-1 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts overall and 8-1-1 in Rodriguez's last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Under is 10-4-1 in Astros last 15 overall. Bet the UNDER.
Ben Burns
Washington vs. Seattle
Dickey's first start didn't go too well, as he gave up five runs in six innings. However, he's still got an impressive 2.67 ERA and 1.111 WHIP on the season, a stretch spanning 27 complete innings. Additionally, tonight's matchup is significantly more favorable than Dickey's previous start was. That game came on the road vs. the Angels, the team which is the class of the AL West and which currently has the best winning percentage in the American League. Tonight, Dickey gets to pitch at home. That's significant as he hasn't allowed a single earned run (0.00 ERA) in 12 innings at SafeCo this season, holding opposing hitters to a mere .190 average during that stretch. Additionally, instead of facing an elite team, Dickey will now face a Washington squad which currently has the worst record in the National League and which scores fewer runs per game (3.7) than any team in baseball. Lastly, instead of facing a tough southpaw (Saunders already has nine wins) Dickey will now be opposed by right-hander Shawn Hill. Given that the Hill has a 6.66 ERA on the road with an awful 1.973 WHIP, even the light-hitting Mariners should be able to provide Dickey with some run support. Given those stats, it's no surprise that the Nationals are 0-5 in Hill's five road starts. The Mariners have enjoyed success in Interleague action. After taking two of three last month, the M's are now 25-14 (+11.4) against the National League since 2006 and 109-88 the past decade. With the Nationals at 2-10 their last 12 overall, let's lay the reasonable price with the home team. Take the Mariners.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on LA Dodgers +115
The Dodgers' sticks did not show up yesterday as they tallied just 3 hits and were shut out. Expect an offensive explosion from the Dodgers today. Combine that with a solid pitching performance from their ace and we have ourselves a nice underdog winner. The Dodgers are 13-3 in Penny's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record and 23-6 in Penny's last 29 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Dodgers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings in this matchup and I like them to get their revenge here.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on L.A. Dodgers +111
We’ll take Brad Penny in this spot every time as a road underdog against an inexperienced starter. Eddie Bonine gets his first action of the year for the Tigers who are really struggling to find health in their rotation. The Tigers’ bats won’t be able to make up for the struggles that Bonine will face on the mound early and often today. Detroit is 8-17 against the money line in day games this season. Brad Penny is a scorching hot 26-8 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Penny will limit the Tigers as the Dodgers come through with a nice road victory Saturday. Cash in with L.A. as the underdog.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Texas Rangers +147
Texas is the ultimate value pick as a free play Saturday. Pedro Martinez still hasn’t proven he has fully recovered from injury. There is no reason the Mets should be this big of a favorite considering they have lost 6 of their last 8 games overall. Pedro Martinez has allowed 11 earned runs on 21 hits through 14 innings for a 6.91 ERA on the season. Texas is 16-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Kason Gabbard is 6-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. The Mets are 2-11 (-15.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 2 seasons. Gabbard is also 10-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Take the Rangers on the Money Line.
Kelso
10 units Oakland A's
5 units Red Sox
4 units Tampa Bay
3 units Yankees
Rocco Spacamuro
100* A's
Big Stuff Sports Inc
5 units Seattle
5 units Toronto
Nick Parsons
Indians
LT's LOCKS
Astros
floridabookybusters
Boston
PowerPlayWins
Indians
GAMEDAY SPORTS NETWORK
NY Yankees @ Houston OVER 9.5
SportsAction365
Atlanta @ LA Angels OVER 9
MIKE NERI
Pirates +120
LPW SPORTS FORECAST
Red Sox
Pure Lock
Oakland A's -135
Silver Key Play
WHITE SOX
Youngstown Connection
Orioles
Wayne Root
Chairman- Tigers
Millionair- A's
Insiders Circle- Astros
Louie Mayo
MLB
(5*) Florida +150
(3*) Pittsburgh +117
(1*) Colorado +173
WNBA
(50*) Phoenix +2
AFL
(50*) Georgia -2½
(50*) KC +5½
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Baltimore Orioles will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Camden Yards. The Pirates will give the ball to starter Zach Duke in this one. Lefthander Duke is 4-4 this season with a 4.10 ERA. Duke's opponent in this one will be Radhames Liz. The Orioles righthander has a 3.48 ERA to go along with a 1-0 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Orioles listed as 130-moneyline favorites versus the Pirates, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Orioles erased a five-run lead to defeat the Pirates 9-6 in the opener as -115 favorites on Friday. The game's 15 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (9.5). Kevin Millar drove in two runs, and Melvin Mora went 3-for-4 at the plate with one RBI for the Orioles. Brian Burres got the win, and George Serrill tossed a scoreless ninth for his 22nd save. Jason Michaels belted a three-run homer and Jack Wilson drove in two runs for the Pirates, who were +105 underdogs in that game. Franquelis Osoria allowed two runs in relief and was tagged with the loss. Team records: Pittsburgh: 33-35 SU Baltimore: 33-33 SU Pittsburgh most recently: When playing on Saturday are 6-4 Before playing Baltimore are 3-1 After playing Baltimore are 3-0 After a loss are 8-2 Baltimore most recently: When playing on Saturday are 6-4 Before playing Pittsburgh are 2-2 After playing Pittsburgh are 1-2 After a win are 4-6 A few trends to consider: Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games Pittsburgh is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Ben Burns
MLB 4* Cincinnati Reds
MLB 3* SF Giants
Alex Smart
MLB 2* Cincinnati Reds
AFL 2* Dallas Desperados